Canucks News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | Will they stay or will they go, now?

[Mr. Canucklehead]

Last one was over 1,000. Continue here.

Vector's NHL Transaction Tracker.

Some Important Off-Season Dates

Buyout Period: 48 hours after the SCF; players without NMCs must be placed on unconditional waivers 24 hours prior (another buyout period opens if a team has a player file for arbitration)
Team-Elected Arbitration: 48 hours after the SCF
Draft Day 01: June 28th
Draft Day 02: June 29th
Qualifying Offer Date: July 1st
Free Agency Opens: July 1st
Player-Elected Arbitration: July 5th
Young Stars Classic Tournament: Sep. 13th-16th

Click to read more...

 

[biturbo19]

RE: “I’d rather just sign a Jake Debrusk-type for 60% the cost of Guentzel for 60% of the results”

You are not paying Guentzel for his regular season production. You are paying that premium for the production in the post-season. Few active players in the league have performed as consistently as Guentzel in the post-season. He is quite literally in a whole different echelon to any other free agent or top-six forward we’ve been linked to.

Think about how many times this playoffs we saw Mikheyev or Hoglander flub a high danger chance. That’s why you pay Guentzel.

Player	Playoff Pts	Playoff GP	Pts/GP
Guentzel	67	69	0.97
Marchessault	76	102	0.75
Lindholm	27	40	0.68
Laine	16	24	0.67
Reinhart	32	51	0.63
Teravainen	50	90	0.56
Debrusk	47	86	0.55
Arvidsson	37	72	0.51
Necas	30	59	0.51
Toffoli	46	93	0.49
Duclair	16	39	0.41
Ehlers	14	37	0.38
Zucker	18	52	0.35
Hoglander	2	11	0.18
Mikheyev	4	30	0.13

That’s not to say that I don’t like Debrusk specifically as an addition. I just see such a stark difference in quality of player that he should only be considered a plan-B if Guentzel is not going to happen.

PS — Mikheyev

This is a bit of a mirage though. Not that Guentzel isn't a solid playoff performer...but so much of that statistic is buoyed by one absolutely ballistic playoff run.

Guess who scored exactly the same 21pts in 12 playoff games as Guentzel in '17-18 playoffs? Some guy named Sid Le Croz? I wonder if that's a coincidence. Hmmm...


Playoff samples are stupid volatile and context sensitive. For example...DeBrusk actually just outproduced Guentzel in this current year's playoffs. More goals, more points, more G/GP, more PPG.

 

[StickShift]

This is a bit of a mirage though. Not that Guentzel isn't a solid playoff performer...but so much of that statistic is buoyed by one absolutely ballistic playoff run.

Guess who scored exactly the same 21pts in 12 playoff games as Guentzel in '17-18 playoffs? Some guy named Sid Le Croz? I wonder if that's a coincidence. Hmmm...


Playoff samples are stupid volatile and context sensitive. For example...DeBrusk actually just outproduced Guentzel in this current year's playoffs. More goals, more points, more G/GP, more PPG.

I don’t think “he only scored a bunch because he played with elite talent” is the qualifier you are trying to make it? It means that the combination was effective. That’s a track record I would want if I was signing a player with that much money to play with my elite talent like Pettersson or Miller or Hughes.

UFA is rolling the dice and paying the premium to get someone who has a pattern of performing is a lot less risky than hoping some 28 yo has a late career glow-up or repeats one-season of success.

 

[biturbo19]

I don’t think “he only scored a bunch because he played with elite talent” is the qualifier you are trying to make it? It means that the combination was effective. That’s a track record I would want if I was signing a player with that much money to play with my elite talent like Pettersson or Miller or Hughes.

UFA is rolling the dice and paying the premium to get someone who has a pattern of performing is a lot less risky than hoping some 28 yo has a late career glow-up or repeats one-season of success.

I mean, the point with Guentzel is that...one absolutely insane run playing with a guy on an all time mission for one deep playoff run can permanently skew what is otherwise massively more "decent" playoff production rates. Especially if the guy dips out of the playoffs for some years altogether as Guentzel has. Outlier years are worth closer examination. Guentzel has never come anywhere remotely close to replicating that one year performance in any other year, or even small playoff sample. In fact...he's got plenty of very pedestrian or even underwhelming playoffs under his belt as well. Playing with more or less that same talent...just without a perfect storm.


It's also not like DeBrusk is really a case of "paying for a 28 year old glow-up or one-season success". He's been overall, a solid playoff performer. Inconsistent here and there but on the whole, i think you have a pretty decent picture of what he offers. I don't think you're paying a huge premium for what he's done. I think you're just paying for the traits, skillset, and production that he offers and what he can bring to your lineup. Accepting that he's not a $9-10M player because he's not as consistent, or with as strong a PP track record.

With Guentzel is where i think you're paying a premium for a playoff track record that peaked a long time ago. At least, if you're spending that much more for his career playoff production in a 30 year old. Paying that much more for an older player coming off a slightly lesser playoffs most recently...on the basis of "career playoff PPG rate".

 

[mriswith]

Guentzel's been an elite producer at ES his entire career and his past performance has easily been worth 9-10m. If you believe he can sustain what he's been doing his entire career so far then that's what you're paying for.

He's been an elite producer at ES in the playoffs as well, not just that one insane run.

Signing a 30 year old to a 7 year deal has huge backfire potential but just like with Miller, if he's able to maintain his current level for 3-4 years before declining it would be worth the huge contract to get him here during the current Hughes/Demko contract timing.

 

[Jerry the great]

It's also not like DeBrusk is really a case of "paying for a 28 year old glow-up or one-season success". He's been overall, a solid playoff performer. Inconsistent here and there but on the whole, i think you have a pretty decent picture of what he offers. I don't think you're paying a huge premium for what he's done. I think you're just paying for the traits, skillset, and production that he offers and what he can bring to your lineup. Accepting that he's not a $9-10M player because he's not as consistent, or with as strong a PP track record.

With Guentzel is where i think you're paying a premium for a playoff track record that peaked a long time ago. At least, if you're spending that much more for his career playoff production in a 30 year old. Paying that much more for an older player coming off a slightly lesser playoffs most recently...on the basis of "career playoff PPG rate".

Guentzel is a really good player. Smart, fearless and he just never seems to stop moving his feet. There's a reason he worked so well with Crosby. That said, he played almost his entire career beside one of the greatest players of all time and he's tiny. He's not much bigger than Conor Garland. Kind of similar players actually, though Guentzel has better finish. The problem is going to be the contract which is probably going to be obscene in cap hit ($9MM+), duration (7 years) and he'll be 30 when he starts earning it. There is no upside here, you just hope the trajectory of the downtrend is a long gradual decline....though he's absolutely not built for that to be very likely.

I don't mind deBrusk,, he has pretty solid numbers and special teams utility. but I don't really see a big break out coming once he finally gets to play with some quality line-mates and isn't held back by having to play with Marchand, Coyle, Pastrnak and Zacha at ES anymore....or be burdened with almost 2 minutes of PP TOI/GP.

 

[StickShift]

I think everyone on this forum should soberly accept that if they sign Guentzel long-term or re-sign Zadorov long-term that it is to (1) try and win in the first-half of those contracts and (2) deal with the consequences in the second-half.

The window is now. No half measures. Go after the best players that will help you lift the Cup on the Hughes contract.

 

[Jerry the great]

I think everyone on this forum should soberly accept that if they sign Guentzel long-term or re-sign Zadorov long-term that it is to (1) try and win in the first-half of those contracts and (2) deal with the consequences in the second-half.

The window is now. No half measures. Go after the best players that will help you lift the Cup on the Hughes contract.

Yeah, that's fair i guess. You want to identify a core you can ride and add pieces over time. I think Zadorov is a core kind of guy and he's built to absorb punishment and keep on rolling. no issue with giving him term.

 

[Baby Pettersson]

I think everyone on this forum should soberly accept that if they sign Guentzel long-term or re-sign Zadorov long-term that it is to (1) try and win in the first-half of those contracts and (2) deal with the consequences in the second-half.

The window is now. No half measures. Go after the best players that will help you lift the Cup on the Hughes contract.

Agreed. But to be fair I think that is the common consensus around here anyways.

 

[biturbo19]

I think everyone on this forum should soberly accept that if they sign Guentzel long-term or re-sign Zadorov long-term that it is to (1) try and win in the first-half of those contracts and (2) deal with the consequences in the second-half.

The window is now. No half measures. Go after the best players that will help you lift the Cup on the Hughes contract.

I think that's fair in a sense. With any of these big long-term UFA type deals...you know there's gonna be bad tacked on the back end. But you live with it, as the consequences are down the road somewhere. No different than the JT Miller deal for instance.

The question is more just...philosophically, how do you want to build a team. Top heavy? More balanced and diversified? There are different approaches there.

For me...a pair of the right $4-6M type players is probably better than one $10M player unless they're an absolute gamebreaker. And i don't think a 30-year old Guentzel is going to morph into that at his age. So i'm not sure it's really worth the price initially even...and then there's the expected decline, which is not that far off for a guy like him.



There's an awkward sort of unspoken element to this Guentzel conversation where...i think a lot of people are sort of subconsciously looking at a $9-10M Guenztel as a way to "prop up" our no-show $11M supposed core player #1C. And once again, i'm not sure if Guentzel is really a guy who is going to "carry" Pettersson. He's an elite complementary player...but if you're signing him, a huge part of that is ultimately just contingent on having Pettersson playing at an elite level to prop up his winger and help elevate him to that 1st line level he's capable of. Some of it is symbiotic. But some of it just has me questioning how much you can afford to throw at supporting your $11M Center. Vs where you have to find cheaper wingers for them to elevate. The way that Guentzel was for the Penguins as a huge bargain beside expensive Crosby and Malkin when that team were an actual Championship Contender.

 

[JT Milker]

the 5v5 points and playdriving argument is a good one when you’re talking about the value of guys who won’t be on pp1

but this team needs another elite talent who can play at a high level and on pp1.

if guentzel comes, your four high salary fwds will be pp1 guys. and if that works for a few years, so be it.

also re the horvat v lindholm discourse. horvat’s the better player, lindholm was a better fit for maximizing this roster. but that is no longer the case given the salary he demands. horvat would have given you an elite pp and more offense but it’s just obvious that group of 3c had diminishing returns

Horvat’s a better player? They have nearly identical career ppgs but Lindholm is a selke-level defensive player.

 

[Cancuks]

Haven't heard his name mentioned anywhere but I wonder if Justin Schultz would be on the team's radar. Should come cheaper than his AFP contract projection (2y/2.4m), obvious strong connections to the coaching staff and management, BC boy, right shot defenceman that is a puck-mover. He'd be someone you can rotate Juulsen with to keep them both fresh.

He's slow as molasses though. Better off signing Barrie to a one year $1 million deal.

 

[SelltheTeamFrancesco]

Horvat’s a better player? They have nearly identical career ppgs but Lindholm is a selke-level defensive player.

Lindholm played a majority of his career with Tkachuk and Gaudreau. Horvat played with wingers like Baertschi, Pearson. Also Lindholm the last two seasons has not been anywhere close to Selke level. Horvat is currently the better player.

 

[ziploc]

He's slow as molasses though. Better off signing Barrie to a one year $1 million deal.

 

[ziploc]

Tough decisions.

If it's between Guentzel or two players like DeBrusk and Marchessault (for instance, I'm not speculating as to the likelihood of their coming or whether the salaries would even out), that would be an interesting choice to make.

Even more so if there was one established player like Marchessault and one boom-bust project like Vrana.

The same goes for the D, though there we have some more clearly known properties.

Keep Hronek and maybe get Dillon to replace Zad, and another vet to replace Cole?

Or trade Hronek and re-sign Zad and bring in Tanev as well?

Lots of moving pieces, and lots of other teams also in the mix. I have waaaaay more trust in this management group though to plow their way through it. They rebuilt the defense last year and I believe they can do it again.

 

[valkynax]

Tough decisions.

If it's between Guentzel or two players like DeBrusk and Marchessault (for instance, I'm not speculating as to the likelihood of their coming or whether the salaries would even out), that would be an interesting choice to make.

Even more so if there was one established player like Marchessault and one boom-bust project like Vrana.

The same goes for the D, though there we have some more clearly known properties.

Keep Hronek and maybe get Dillon to replace Zad, and another vet to replace Cole?

Or trade Hronek and re-sign Zad and bring in Tanev as well?

Lots of moving pieces, and lots of other teams also in the mix. I have waaaaay more trust in this management group though to plow their way through it. They rebuilt the defense last year and I believe they can do it again.

I am all for General Zad, have not seen another player with so much positive intangibles for quite some time on our team.

 

[David71]

@biturbo19 i think the team still needs to add a bit more size to the lineup especially in the forward groups if dakota leaves via free agency. saad would be a perfect fit. front net presence too. or josh anderson? big strong fast but has been inconsistent the last few years in montreal.

 

[credulous]

Lindholm played a majority of his career with Tkachuk and Gaudreau. Horvat played with wingers like Baertschi, Pearson. Also Lindholm the last two seasons has not been anywhere close to Selke level. Horvat is currently the better player.

horvat has always been the better player. people really underrate how key he was to the power play here

 

[biturbo19]

He's slow as molasses though. Better off signing Barrie to a one year $1 million deal.

Yeah. I really just don't see much of any utility in Schultz. Even if they are trying to replace Hronek's puck movement on a budget if he's moved, i'd take Barrie over Schultz at this point as well. And really not be happy with either.

Lindholm played a majority of his career with Tkachuk and Gaudreau. Horvat played with wingers like Baertschi, Pearson. Also Lindholm the last two seasons has not been anywhere close to Selke level. Horvat is currently the better player.

Lindholm absolutely did not play anything resembling "the majority" of his career with Tkachuk and Gaudreau. He played basically one magical year with them. 2021-22 and part of 2020-21. Before that he bounced around with maybe one or the other of the two. And before that, he was...seen as an offensively disappointing middle-6 C/Wing for the Canes who wasn't living up to his draft spot. That's the majority of his career.

In any case...i'd agree that Horvat is probably more capable of generating his own scoring offensively, even with scrub linemates. But the gulf between the two defensively, on the PK, and just in overall ability to gel with high skill linemates...Lindholm is miles apart, for the better.

Horvat was always a "fake 2-way player" on reputation. Lindholm has been for almost all of his career, an actually reliable positionally sound two-way player.

@biturbo19 i think the team still needs to add a bit more size to the lineup especially in the forward groups if dakota leaves via free agency. saad would be a perfect fit. front net presence too.

It's definitely a priority. But i still think speed is just as much of an issue. Ideally you get both in the same player...but that's hard to do.

 

[David71]

Yeah. I really just don't see much of any utility in Schultz. Even if they are trying to replace Hronek's puck movement on a budget if he's moved, i'd take Barrie over Schultz at this point as well. And really not be happy with either.



Lindholm absolutely did not play anything resembling "the majority" of his career with Tkachuk and Gaudreau. He played basically one magical year with them. 2021-22 and part of 2020-21. Before that he bounced around with maybe one or the other of the two. And before that, he was...seen as an offensively disappointing middle-6 C/Wing for the Canes who wasn't living up to his draft spot. That's the majority of his career.

In any case...i'd agree that Horvat is probably more capable of generating his own scoring offensively, even with scrub linemates. But the gulf between the two defensively, on the PK, and just in overall ability to gel with high skill linemates...Lindholm is miles apart, for the better.

Horvat was always a "fake 2-way player" on reputation. Lindholm has been for almost all of his career, an actually reliable positionally sound two-way player.



It's definitely a priority. But i still think speed is just as much of an issue. Ideally you get both in the same player...but that's hard to do.

yes speed needs to be adressed. at least 2-3 guys in your forward groups to have adequate speed not like connor mcdavid style. but good enough to forecheck and get pucks in deep and make plays downlow.

 

[biturbo19]

yes speed needs to be adressed. at least 2-3 guys in your forward groups to have adequate speed not like connor mcdavid style. but good enough to forecheck and get pucks in deep and make plays downlow.

Doesn't hurt with the forecheck and stuff. But to me, the speed deficit is still really all about the ability to carry the puck through the neutral zone.

It's like...Hoglander is a really effective forechecker. But he's worthless as a NZ puck carrier. He needs to have that forecheck set up for him, at which point he's got great instincts and quickness for it to be reactive and disruptive. But he can't set that up for himself or others.

You watch the Oilers and they've got a lot of guys who aren't even necessarily that great as players, but can haul the puck up ice themselves if they need to. We've mostly got Hughes and sometimes Garland and maybe Miller if he's on a mission.

Oilers have McDavid obviously. But Draisaitl is effortless in crossing the neutral zone with possession. Hyman is good at it. Kane sucks as a player by he's got that ability too, as do Holloway, McLeod, a few others. Even Nuge isn't that bad at carrying the puck through NZ and setting up a well placed dump-in or pass.

It just makes a big difference in the options and flexibility a coach has to make systematic tweaks on the fly. It was night and day when they cranked that element up for Game4 tonight. Aggressive outlets and carrying a lot of speed with the puck through the NZ. Panthers will presumably compensate for the next game and Edmonton will have to reorient again. But it offers you different opportunities in just cracking open a defensive system.



Size is just another element that can offer different looks and strategies of brute force. But is still much more effective when combined with speed.


Canucks Forwards are just Small and Slow.

 

[David71]

Doesn't hurt with the forecheck and stuff. But to me, the speed deficit is still really all about the ability to carry the puck through the neutral zone.

It's like...Hoglander is a really effective forechecker. But he's worthless as a NZ puck carrier. He needs to have that forecheck set up for him, at which point he's got great instincts and quickness for it to be reactive and disruptive. But he can't set that up for himself or others.

You watch the Oilers and they've got a lot of guys who aren't even necessarily that great as players, but can haul the puck up ice themselves if they need to. We've mostly got Hughes and sometimes Garland and maybe Miller if he's on a mission.

Oilers have McDavid obviously. But Draisaitl is effortless in crossing the neutral zone with possession. Hyman is good at it. Kane sucks as a player by he's got that ability too, as do Holloway, McLeod, a few others. Even Nuge isn't that bad at carrying the puck through NZ and setting up a well placed dump-in or pass.

It just makes a big difference in the options and flexibility a coach has to make systematic tweaks on the fly. It was night and day when they cranked that element up for Game4 tonight. Aggressive outlets and carrying a lot of speed with the puck through the NZ. Panthers will presumably compensate for the next game and Edmonton will have to reorient again. But it offers you different opportunities in just cracking open a defensive system.



Size is just another element that can offer different looks and strategies of brute force. But is still much more effective when combined with speed.


Canucks Forwards are just Small and Slow.

now we have to counter it with big and average speed.

 

[Canucks LB]

Canucks News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | The Final Countdown

We have $29m in Cap Space if we Trade Mikheyev, and or 27.5ish if we buy out Mikheyev. Zadorov 5x5 (I think would get it done) Leaves us with 24m Hronek at 7.5x6 Leaves us with 16.5m Tyler Myers at 3x3 Leaves us with 13.5m Now we need a Top 6 F, 3rd line C, Resign Silovs, and a Budget mid...

forums.hfboards.com

New Thread