- Aug 28, 2011
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Owen Power is going to be a top pairing defenseman. He just turned 21 and is going through the same pains that Rasmus Dahlin did in 2021 when the same Sabres fans lambasted him for being a bust.
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Owen Power is going to be a top pairing defenseman. He just turned 21 and is going through the same pains that Rasmus Dahlin did in 2021 when the same Sabres fans lambasted him for being a bust.
sting101
Registered User
- Feb 8, 2012
- 17,533
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Hoglander for Power and guys dont want to do that???
You take that and laugh
You take that and laugh
I'm pretty sure he's written about how he tweaked/composed his model. I recall reading what components go into it, etc.
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He's written about how he created the model and tweaked it later on in various articles.
I mean, it's what he uses to project games (he is big into gambling) and posts how he values teams/players publicly. I don't see how this is "snakeoil". He's not selling anything. People can read about his projections if they're interested...or just not.
He's far more transparent than the vast majority of modelers who create models for gambling purposes. @arttk is absolutely right that he has no incentive to be forthright with anything. He brought up Nate Silver from 538, since Nate's left 538 he is largely considering taking his election model private and providing data to people only for a fee. FWIW I've used his public version at 538 to do quite well on election betting, so I would personally be quite disappointed with this.
With Dom, you can look back and see if you think he's been accurate enough for your liking regarding his player/team evaluations. That is infinitely more transparent than most modelers/bettors.
- Jul 8, 2022
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Maybe, but he's already getting paid like one and wouldn't be a 1st pair defender on our team. He's not a PP guy (hence the Byram trade). Big, but doesn't play big. And it isn't a question of Hoglander for Power in a vacuum. it's Hoglander and whatever else it will cost to acquire him + $7.25MM in cap space.
Or you can just keep Zadorov who costs nothing but cap space to retain and a lot less of it.
I don't think this is some kind of fluke year for Hoglander (could be a reliable 30G guy for years) and fully appreciate that defenders are more valuable than wingers, I'm just not sold at all that Power is a top pair anchor; he definitely wouldn't be one for us. If he was a RHD it would bee a conversation....but he ain't.
He uses the model as the way to generate content so he can making a living. Like most model makers, he has something coded and he refines it every off season to "fix" things that it missed. Open sourcing it will basically kill his ability to make money not just for this season but moving forward.
At the end of the day, we can judge how good his model is when the season finishes and see how close he got and if his model prediction is better than the rest.
Bobby9
Registered User
- Feb 10, 2019
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6'6 D man with with a ceiling to be a bonified number 1 on a long term contract and you don't want to trade a 5'9 winger? Listen, i LOVE Hoglander but wingers are available every free agency. Power type of players you have to draft.
Not if youre Jerry The Greatest
Nick Lang
Registered User
- May 14, 2015
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Overall, well said. Hoglander is really playing well and he's a keeper. However, the potential and probability of Owen blows Zadorov out of the water imo. I'd put my money on Owen turning out twice+ the player Zadorov is. Like the other poster mentioned. He's only 21 and in the same sh!t position Dahlin was before he broke out.
It's risky though for us I'll give you that. The Canucks absolutely don't need another $7 million defender on the second pairing. Already saw how that worked out with OEL. If we didn't have Hughes I would do it in a heartbeat though.
One thing to consider with Hoglander is his contract is also due in a year. He could be looking at anywhere from a shorter $3 mil deal or a longer $5 mil deal if he hits 20 or 30 again next year playing with Petey. I'm just guessing here though. What do you think his next contract could look like?
WTG
December 5th
Comparing Power to Zadorov is a bit disingenuous. Zadorov uses his size well to be physical, and so does Soucy. Power might be big, but he doesn't play big, kind of like Myers.
That being said, you'd take Hoglander for Power and run.
That being said, you'd take Hoglander for Power and run.
Power is an interesting one. Like in a vacuum obviously you do the Hoglander trade straight up but if there’s adds then I don’t know if it makes sense. Value of Hog’s contract and the opportunity cost of adding Power’s vs keeping Hoglander’s $1m and adding a UFA RHD, relationship with Petey, Power’s handedness, having Soucy already as our 2LHD…
- Jul 8, 2022
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The whole not trading a 5'9 winger for a 6'6 defender (who plays a lot softer than the 5'9 winger ) is such a stupid strawman. this is about efficiently allocating capital in a hard cap world.
We have a Norris Trophy level #1 left shot D-man and will likely extend his partner long term at top pair money. it doesn't make sense to allocated $8.35MM to a guy (currently playing like a $4MM defender) who, even if he develops significantly from here, absolutely will not displace Hughes. If you do it, you're killing an opportunity to add depth.
The left side of our D is like the one place there is a clear path to solidifying simply by extending Zadorov; we're way better off spending the rest of the money on a RHD to play on the second pair
Yeah, there are wingers available ever summer i get it. so you replace hoglander in the UFA market you're probably looking at $3-$4MM, so now you have $12MM tied up in a 2nd pair LHD and a winger that is older than Hoglander with less upside (likely). Id rather keep Hoglander, resign Zadorov and try to land a solid RHD like Matt Roy (or Tanev). all of which will likely cost less than $12MM.
It's entirely possible that Power doesn't hit his ceiling and tops out as a 6ft6 version of Nate Schmidt.
FWIW, at a comparable age and similar games played, Noah Dobson was breaking out big time with the Islanders.
Being coached by Trotz is a lot different than Granato.
Diamonddog01
Diamond in the rough
Sorry where is the Hoglander for Power thing coming from?
Canucker
Go Hawks!
Dobson was pretty much a PP specialist up until this season as well...he was a defensive liability and a turnover machine. This year he's been tight. Thats why you don't give up on 21 year old 6'6" 1st overall defensemen because of a regression season...especially one where the entire team regressed.
credulous
Registered User
- Nov 18, 2021
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i dunno but it's ridiculous. buffalo would hang up the phone if you tried to convince them it was a fair swap
we should all know by now that a team would rather let their 1st OA bust than to trade them away. 1st OA gets insane amount of runway.
WTG
December 5th
9.5% of the cap next year for a top 4 defenseman; the better he gets, the less of a % of cap it becomes. You take that easy. But Power's isn't getting traded.
Just A Bit Outside
Playoffs??!
- Mar 6, 2010
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If Adams even remotely considers a Power for Hoglander swap, he should be fired immediately.
Deal with the precrime like they did in Minority Report.
From a Nucks POV, you make that deal everyday of the week and twice on Sundays.
Deal with the precrime like they did in Minority Report.
From a Nucks POV, you make that deal everyday of the week and twice on Sundays.
Kinda shifting the topic a bit, I would not be surprised if a team like Buffalo or Carolina make an offer sheet for Hronek in the summer.
It’s super rare, but given the circumstances of both those teams that desperately need a RHD that can carry play and man the PP for them long term, as well as where they’re at in their current stages, Hronek would be a perfect fit for them.
Mainly Buffalo because they need a RHD more than anything that can eat 22 minutes a night. They don’t need more prospect or high picks and need guys like Hronek for them to be able to take the next step. The main thing is that they’ll be willing to pay whatever it is Hronek wants.
That, or possibly a 1 for 1 trade featuring Power and Hronek if they don’t want 4 guys that inevitably will struggle to find PP minutes.
I think Hronek will be a hot commodity in the summer and there will be teams willing to pay possibly twice the amount we paid to get him.
Carolina on the other hand likely lets Pesce walk because that’s a huge risk signing given his steady decline before the age of 30. Burns won’t be ageless forever, and then they have Chatfield and DeAngelo as their remaining depth. Scott Morrow is coming up but he’s likely a couple more years before he becomes a contributing factor. Hronek fits the age of the core, is a top 3 defenseman, and Carolina has the space to sign him to a contract that Hronek would ultimately want.
If not an offer sheet which they’ve done in the recent times, a package that involves Scott Morrow + Necas is definitely something that both teams can work around. You’d probably have to go ahead and sign Tanev so we don’t lose an immediate top 4 defenseman without gaining one back.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Hronek situation folds. With the OEL penalty and needing to re sign other key guys, and with Willander likely just around the corner, it’s imperative that we get Hronek in a team friendly deal and look to move him if there’s a better situation. Hronek in my opinion is absolutely not a $7M+ defenseman.
It’s super rare, but given the circumstances of both those teams that desperately need a RHD that can carry play and man the PP for them long term, as well as where they’re at in their current stages, Hronek would be a perfect fit for them.
Mainly Buffalo because they need a RHD more than anything that can eat 22 minutes a night. They don’t need more prospect or high picks and need guys like Hronek for them to be able to take the next step. The main thing is that they’ll be willing to pay whatever it is Hronek wants.
That, or possibly a 1 for 1 trade featuring Power and Hronek if they don’t want 4 guys that inevitably will struggle to find PP minutes.
I think Hronek will be a hot commodity in the summer and there will be teams willing to pay possibly twice the amount we paid to get him.
Carolina on the other hand likely lets Pesce walk because that’s a huge risk signing given his steady decline before the age of 30. Burns won’t be ageless forever, and then they have Chatfield and DeAngelo as their remaining depth. Scott Morrow is coming up but he’s likely a couple more years before he becomes a contributing factor. Hronek fits the age of the core, is a top 3 defenseman, and Carolina has the space to sign him to a contract that Hronek would ultimately want.
If not an offer sheet which they’ve done in the recent times, a package that involves Scott Morrow + Necas is definitely something that both teams can work around. You’d probably have to go ahead and sign Tanev so we don’t lose an immediate top 4 defenseman without gaining one back.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Hronek situation folds. With the OEL penalty and needing to re sign other key guys, and with Willander likely just around the corner, it’s imperative that we get Hronek in a team friendly deal and look to move him if there’s a better situation. Hronek in my opinion is absolutely not a $7M+ defenseman.
- Jul 8, 2022
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So Hronek, who's been a great fit with Hughes and is a right shot, isn't worth $7MM, but you would want to trade him for a guy who has worse numbers, shoots left and makes $1.35MM more. how does that make sense?
Andy Dufresne
Registered User
- Jun 17, 2009
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Imagine if you could arrest a gm for even thinking about doing something that dumb? Where's the Shocked JimBenning.gif
Just A Bit Outside
Playoffs??!
- Mar 6, 2010
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Benning would have been fired before even being hired in the first place if that was the case.
Tables of Stats
Registered User
The thing with Hoglander is that he's on a team friendly deal and is still an RFA so we have the potential to lock him up through his peak for below market value. Owen Power, as skilled as he is, isn't likely to offer that same value, so he might be a better player but in a cap league he might end up being a worse asset. I'd probably still do the deal because Hughes-Hronek and Power-Soucy look like cup winning D-pairs, but I can see why people highly value Hoglander.
ChilliBilly
Registered User
In what world can the Canucks afford another $8M + player. Its kinda silly to get into trades at this time of year anyways.
If we get knocked out in the 1st round, well then we have some thinking to do. If we make a long run, well thats another thing.
Either way, we have no idea how much money will be available for FA's, nor how we are going to retain a bunch of this core. The top guys are sewed up for quite a while, but our 3rd and 4th lines have really been difference makers this year.
If we get knocked out in the 1st round, well then we have some thinking to do. If we make a long run, well thats another thing.
Either way, we have no idea how much money will be available for FA's, nor how we are going to retain a bunch of this core. The top guys are sewed up for quite a while, but our 3rd and 4th lines have really been difference makers this year.
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