Canucks News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | Playoffs Approaching

[arttk]

Explain what those numbers mean.

Jake Guentzel is not an elite player, e.g., a Mackinnon, Kucherov, Pastrnak, Draisaitl, or Miller/Pettersson in Canucks terms.

You tried to suggest I didn’t think he was good for whatever reason, which is funny because I think he’s very good and said so in the post you quoted. I would not pay him $9M until he’s 37 years old.

I never said you think he is not good, this is what i said.

For those who think Guentzel is not a big add

in response to your message of

I would not consider Guentzel an elite player, YMMV.

once again, here is what the numbers say. Guentzel from an analytics perspective is every bit as impactful as Petey and Miller.

 

[LemonSauceD]

I wonder if there’s some college free agents well sign over the next couple of weeks.

 

[StreetHawk]

I wonder if there’s some college free agents well sign over the next couple of weeks.

If/when their season is done, they will. Unless they are doing the Truscott, and free agent route, then they can't sign til Aug 15 and thus can't burn an elc year.
August is frozen 4 time, so nearing the end of the season for some programs.

 

[Jerry the great]

I never said you think he is not good, this is what i said.

in response to your message of

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once again, here is what the numbers say. Guentzel from an analytics perspective is every bit as impactful as Petey and Miller.

Any model Dom Luszczyszyn is the architect of will be about as useful as a rubber crutch in the polio ward.

 

[credulous]

I wonder if there’s some college free agents well sign over the next couple of weeks.

colin graf is like a free top 5 pick. he's signing with boston tho

other than him the pickings are pretty slim this year. drew bavaro is a decent prospect but boston just signed him

 

[JT Milker]

I never said you think he is not good, this is what i said.

in response to your message of

View attachment 834674View attachment 834675
once again, here is what the numbers say. Guentzel from an analytics perspective is every bit as impactful as Petey and Miller.

This is where you’re being a nerd:

 

[Hodgy]

If you can't or are unwilling to evaluate the two players side by side, why challenge the level argument?

I am not really sure what your point is. I have made lot of arguments as to why acquiring Guentzel this summer would not be a Mark Stone level event as you initially argued.

I offered:

1. SAT% Rel counts this year (Guentzel's are better) and each players' 5 year PPG/G averages.

I have already addressed this, but again, on the first point, why are you only looking at this year when Stone is 31? What about the previous years? But really, can anyone seriously argue that Guentzel is a comparable play driving winger or defensive player to Stone when Stone was acuired and thereafter?

On the goals, yes, I have acknowledged Guentzel has scored more per game than Stone. But I have also raised the question as to how much of that is due to the fact that Guentzel has played with a generational talent in Crosby. What do you think Stone's goal totals would look like playing with Crosby? As a point of reference, look at James Neal's goal totals with Pittsburgh, and then after with Nashville. He scored like 10% less after leaving Pittsburgh.

2. Guentzel is the better scorer (5 years, including P/60), with better realized totals.

There isn't a material difference in the points per game between the two players, and Guentzel has got to play with a generational talent. Again, if Stone had the luxury of playing with Crosby, then it is reasonable to expect that his points per game would actually be higher than Guentzel's.

3. Guentzel has lower defensive impacts on average (admitted), and higher offensive impacts.

Guentze's offensive impacts are very similar to Stone's, and if Stone played with Crosby, then it is reasonable to expect that Stone would actually have the higher offensive impacts. When Stone played with an elite playmaker in Duchene in his last half year or so in Ottawa his goals per game was at .47. I believe Guentzel's highest goals per game was .53. So a pretty negligible difference, and Stone was playing with Duchene vs. Guentzel with Crosby.

In terms of defense, obviously Stone is way better and the multiple Selke nominees attest to this.

But for you to read that and still assert Guentzel isn't in the same class is... expected.

Honestly, it would be very bizarre for someone to somehow classify Guentzel and Stone in the same class. And basically everyone who has weighed in on this has agreed that they are not in the same class.

Still, I'll concede Stone had a better prime. No problem. You've got the win.

Understood. But this isn't one of the two issues at hand. The debate was never over who had the better prime, the debate was whether:

1. Would getting Guentzel be a Mark Stone level event; and

2. Is Mark Stone a way better player than Guentzel when acquired.

You haven't conceded on either of these issues as far as I can see.

Now that this bad faith counter-argument from you is over,

Why is it a bad faith counter-argument? I disagreed with an assertion that you made, and it seems basically everyone else disagrees with you as well.

let's address the initial contention which was: You advocated passing up on an elite winger for 2 mid-tier players. That's comical.

Sorry, where did I advocate this? Maybe you have me confused with someone else.

Despite his age, and despite not being prime Stone, Guentzel offers more impact to the roster than two mid-tier players ever could. That's the point. (The one you avoided)

I haven't made any argument on this point. I am not weighing in on that argument. My initial post was to take issue with your claim that getting Guentzel be a Mark Stone level event. Just because you were arguing other things as well doesn't mean I also have to engage in those arguments.

I posted it again above for your benefit. Or, you can keep reacting to it as if it wasn't posted. Your call.

Again, your concession wasn't actually a concession to either of the issues at hand. The issue was never whether Stone, in his prime, was better than Guentzel.

So, do you want to concede on one or both of the issues?

Do you have any answers whatsoever to the elite winger vs 2 mid-tier players comment (rhetorical, I don't expect an answer))? The original premise.

Again, my argument was limited to the points I have raised. I don't have to engage all of your points, and in fact, in debating, that seldom, if ever, occurs.

 

[arttk]

This is where you’re being a nerd:

View attachment 834691

that's not my words is it boomer

 

[arttk]

Any model Dom Luszczyszyn is the architect of will be about as useful as a rubber crutch in the polio ward.

at a high level it is able to capture who is actually good. i do think the defenseman metric looks whack but the forwards seems to be somewhat accurate.

so their model (for players on playoff teams) has McD, Mack and Matthews, Pasta as the best forwards.
Tier below being Barkov, Robertson, Tkachuk, Reinhart, Hyman, Drai, Ratanen, Eichel, Panarin , Petey, Miller, Guentzel, Marner, Nylande. Seems like the model is reasonable.

 

[Jerry the great]

at a high level it is able to capture who is actually good. i do think the defenseman metric looks whack but the forwards seems to be somewhat accurate.

so their model (for players on playoff teams) has McD, Mack and Matthews, Pasta as the best forwards.
Tier below being Barkov, Robertson, Tkachuk, Reinhart, Hyman, Drai, Ratanen, Eichel, Panarin , Petey, Miller, Guentzel, Marner, Nylande. Seems like the model is reasonable.

I think anyone who actually believes Guentzel's impact on the game is on the same level as Pettersson or Miller is nuts. But we won't have to wait long to see.

 

[arttk]

I think anyone who actually believes Guentzel's impact on the game is on the same level as Pettersson or Miller is nuts. But we won't have to wait long to see.

this is what the number says, which i do find very surprising. I think the model has it wrong with Petey and Miller, their offense should be higher but if we are evaluating the model based on just the tiering itself, i think it is reasonable.

 

[JT Milker]

that's not my words is it boomer

No, but the implication of quoting me in response is obviously that I didn’t think Guentzel is good.

And I’m a millennial.

 

[pitseleh]

at a high level it is able to capture who is actually good. i do think the defenseman metric looks whack but the forwards seems to be somewhat accurate.

so their model (for players on playoff teams) has McD, Mack and Matthews, Pasta as the best forwards.
Tier below being Barkov, Robertson, Tkachuk, Reinhart, Hyman, Drai, Ratanen, Eichel, Panarin , Petey, Miller, Guentzel, Marner, Nylande. Seems like the model is reasonable.

I think all models will agree that Guentzel is in that second tier offensively.

Dom’s model is a bit more bullish on Guentzel’s defence than others. Topdownhockey (which JFresh’s charts are based on) has him at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to defence, which is more in line with others I have seen.

Dom’s model also seems to put less weight on defence, especially for forwards, so Guentzel isn’t hurt as much by it compared to under other models. Topdown had Guentzel closer to 75th percentile in WAR.

The main uncertainty is how he is going to do away from Crosby. His numbers have generally been atrocious when not playing with Crosby but the sample is small. There’s good confidence he will be worse but hard to say how much worse at this stage.

 

[tjhfrog]

I am a fan of the Vancouver Canucks, including all their players.

 

[krutovsdonut]

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saying someone is a nerd is not that much as a diss as you think it is boomer

point of order here but no actual boomer is going to try and actually diss you by calling you a nerd. nobody has tried to legit burn someone by calling them a nerd since i was in high school, which included certain years in the 1970s. plus anyone still trying to burn someone by calling them a nerd while i was in high school was a troglodyte rocker idiot who probably wore a lee storm rider and kept a comb in his back pocket and had a big brother who still called him a nerd.

nerd.

 

[Canucker]

I am a fan of the Vancouver Canucks, including all their players.

Thats a bold take to have around here.

 

[arttk]

I think all models will agree that Guentzel is in that second tier offensively.

Dom’s model is a bit more bullish on Guentzel’s defence than others. Topdownhockey (which JFresh’s charts are based on) has him at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to defence, which is more in line with others I have seen.

Dom’s model also seems to put less weight on defence, especially for forwards, so Guentzel isn’t hurt as much by it compared to under other models. Topdown had Guentzel closer to 75th percentile in WAR.

The main uncertainty is how he is going to do away from Crosby. His numbers have generally been atrocious when not playing with Crosby but the sample is small. There’s good confidence he will be worse but hard to say how much worse at this stage.

Yeah i am not sure about Dom's model regarding Guentzel's defense but then I think overall his defensive modelling seems whack. So i was really just looking at the offense part.

I read from Pens fans that Guentzel also played well with Malkin. I am not sure what's Pens center depth but I am guessing it's probably pretty bad after Sid and Malkin. My general thoughts is that even if you have an all star game breaking winger, he can't drive offense when you put him beside a pylon.

We'll see how he performs with Carolina.

point of order here but no actual boomer is going to try and actually diss you by calling you a nerd. nobody has tried to legit burn someone by calling them a nerd since i was in high school, which included certain years in the 1970s. plus anyone still trying to burn someone by calling them a nerd while i was in high school was a troglodyte rocker idiot who probably wore a lee storm rider and kept a comb in his back pocket and had a big brother who still called him a nerd.

nerd.

trying too hard, but that seems to be your motto ever since you decide to be Benning's white knight.

 

[LemonSauceD]

colin graf is like a free top 5 pick. he's signing with boston tho

other than him the pickings are pretty slim this year. drew bavaro is a decent prospect but boston just signed him

Yeah Graf is amazing.

I also like Jacob Quillan

I am a fan of the Vancouver Canucks, including all their players.

impossible

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

I know they don't have much down the middle but wonder what it would take to get Barrett Hayton out of Zona.

Flex to play C or LW, only 24 and a RFA.

 

[arttk]

I think all models will agree that Guentzel is in that second tier offensively.

Dom’s model is a bit more bullish on Guentzel’s defence than others. Topdownhockey (which JFresh’s charts are based on) has him at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to defence, which is more in line with others I have seen.

Dom’s model also seems to put less weight on defence, especially for forwards, so Guentzel isn’t hurt as much by it compared to under other models. Topdown had Guentzel closer to 75th percentile in WAR.

The main uncertainty is how he is going to do away from Crosby. His numbers have generally been atrocious when not playing with Crosby but the sample is small. There’s good confidence he will be worse but hard to say how much worse at this stage.

As much as I think Dom’s model suck with D, it did say Myers is the worst D along with Edmunson. So maybe it’s not all wrong

 

[Peen]

wonder when hronek is signing allvin’s fair offer

 

[vancityluongo]

wonder when hronek is signing allvin’s fair offer

after quinn's norris would be wise from his pov

 

[LemonSauceD]

wonder when hronek is signing allvin’s fair offer

threaten to trade him to Arizona next week if he doesn’t sign for $5M )

 

[Jerry the great]

As much as I think Dom’s model suck with D, it did say Myers is the worst D along with Edmunson. So maybe it’s not all wrong

This is the same model that scored Myers -3 & -1 which somehow came out to -5? It's hard to believe this guy isn't running a team with a model like that.

 

[timw33]

This is the same model that scored Myers -3 & -1 which somehow came out to -5? It's hard to believe this guy isn't running a team with a model like that.

His model numbers look like they round to the nearest whole number, so if you have a -3.3 and a -1.3 or whatever, then you're going to have a -5.