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timw33 said:
His model numbers look like they round to the nearest whole number, so if you have a -3.3 and a -1.3 or whatever, then you're going to have a -5.
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he should have just gone full video game mode and scored them out of 100.
 
theguardianII said:
Kane, Toews, Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos, Kucherov, McKinnon, all under 25 yrs old winning the cup.
No old teams win the cup on AVERAGE.

Miller will not have Marner to play with, Nylander to play with, Mathews to play with. Apples and Oranges.
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Good thing our comparable players to them are Hughes (24) and Pettersson (25). You're also conveniently ignoring the enormous impact of Keith, Sharp, Hossa, Landeskog, Kadri and Toews. Crosby and Malkin are the only exception where they more or less carried the 09 Penguins to a cup almost entirely on their own. Even then, several older guys like Gonchar made an impact.

You also bring up MacKinnon who was a year older than Pettersson is now when he won the cup. Meanwhile, Kucherov was 27 in 2021 and Stamkos was 31. Ya know... the same age Miller is.

Tavares was simply an easy comparison. Kadri is working with absolute shit in Calgary and still putting up 55 points at 33. I think we can all agree, barring a massive setback no one could predict, Miller will be a much better player than Kadri even two years from now.

Regardless, going all in this year and punting every prospect we have for a single chance at the cup is an incredibly short-sighted plan. To be perfectly blunt, I'd rather have a competitive team that doesn't always succeed than a one time chance and than 5+ years of rebuilding from the bottom up.
 
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arttk said:
So Athletics has a new article talking about cup chances based on analytics of course.

For those who think Guentzel is not a big add, this is the rating they have for Guentzel. View attachment 834613
so a net 14 rating, and this is what their model says about our players. View attachment 834614
essentially their models thinks Guentzel would be the 2nd best forward if he were to play for us.


edit: Their model does anger me though, it's a crime that Hughes is rated below f***ing Fox and is rated the same as Evan Bouchard?!
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What is that model using or based on?

Bourne Endeavor said:
Good thing our comparable players to them are Hughes (24) and Pettersson (25). You're also conveniently ignoring the enormous impact of Keith, Sharp, Hossa, Landeskog, Kadri and Toews. Crosby and Malkin are the only exception where they more or less carried the 09 Penguins to a cup almost entirely on their own. Even then, several older guys like Gonchar made an impact.

You also bring up MacKinnon who was a year older than Pettersson is now when he won the cup. Meanwhile, Kucherov was 27 in 2021 and Stamkos was 31. Ya know... the same age Miller is.

Tavares was simply an easy comparison. Kadri is working with absolute shit in Calgary and still putting up 55 points at 33. I think we can all agree, barring a massive setback no one could predict, Miller will be a much better player than Kadri even two years from now.

Regardless, going all in this year and punting every prospect we have for a single chance at the cup is an incredibly short-sighted plan. To be perfectly blunt, I'd rather have a competitive team that doesn't always succeed than a one time chance and than 5+ years of rebuilding from the bottom up.
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It's insane, be like yelling at a shadow
 
Tocchet was pretty non-commital on Silovs today. Sounds like he's thinking unless DeSmith struggles it'll pretty much be a one-man show until Demko gets back.
 
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arttk said:
This is a room


Pretty sure Dom won’t tell us lol
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Which should be a pretty big warning to you.

The GAR stuff is complete snake oil.

Even isolated advanced stats have to be measured with/against the eye-test to have much utility, but in that usage they are sometimes worthwhile.

Anyone who thinks they can take a dynamic game like hockey where a million things are all occurring at once with a puck that bounces strangely, with various linemates and opponents, etc, and break it down into a single stat that explains a player's relative value compared to the rest of the league is myopic and ignorant at best, and a complete charlatan at worst (not directing this at arttk but at 'Dom').
 
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MarkusNaslund19 said:
Which should be a pretty big warning to you.

The GAR stuff is complete snake oil.

Even isolated advanced stats have to be measured with/against the eye-test to have much utility, but in that usage they are sometimes worthwhile.

Anyone who thinks they can take a dynamic game like hockey where a million things are all occurring at once with a puck that bounces strangely, with various linemates and opponents, etc, and break it down into a single stat that explains a player's relative value compared to the rest of the league is myopic and ignorant at best, and a complete charlatan at worst (not directing this at arttk but at 'Dom').
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I mean there is no good reason for him to open source that stuff especially if he is making a living out of it.
You don’t see any analytics of any industry really open source their models. 538 don’t do it with their political or sports model. It’s just bad business to do it.
 
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TruGr1t said:
Tocchet was pretty non-commital on Silovs today. Sounds like he's thinking unless DeSmith struggles it'll pretty much be a one-man show until Demko gets back.
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The schedule is more than manageable for DeSmith. No back to backs. Silovs is just a body.
 
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arttk said:
I mean there is no good reason for him to open source that stuff especially if he is making a living out of it.
You don’t see any analytics of any industry really open source their models. 538 don’t do it with their political or sports model. It’s just bad business to do it.
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Which just indicates that it's geared towards credulous people who will listen without critical judgment to anyone who speaks with confidence and unearned authority, no?

For the record, I'm not saying one can't interact with these stats without being a moron, so I'm not calling you out specifically. But 'it's bad business to open source your model', probably indicates a flaw/emperor wearing no clothes behind the model.
 
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Lots of Sabres fans have soured on Owen Power. Wonder if we can dangle Hoglander for him.

Hurts but we could really use a Power type player on the D core
 
Bobby9 said:
Lots of Sabres fans have soured on Owen Power. Wonder if we can dangle Hoglander for him.

Hurts but we could really use a Power type player on the D core
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I don't know about that, but I could see the Sabres pitching an offer for Tyler Myers since they're hurting for RHD and for sentimentality's sake.
 
Bobby9 said:
Lots of Sabres fans have soured on Owen Power. Wonder if we can dangle Hoglander for him.

Hurts but we could really use a Power type player on the D core
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How does it even make sense money wise considering our cap situation? you want to trade a $1.1MM dollar player that plays like at $3MM+ player (at a position we are then at) for a guy that plays like a $4MM player but gets paid $8.35MM who plays a position we are less thin at (deep at if we retain Zadorov)

I'd rater keep Hoglander, keep Zadorov at $4MM and have $3.25 to spend somewhere else in the lineup. f***, I'd rather spend that $3.25 on another year of Myers to keep a seat warm for Willander.
 
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That contract extension for Power is f***ing brutal. I want no part of any of that.
 
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