prior to last season PPG increased from:
.36
.44
.53
In 22/23 he was absolutely earning his contract and at 22yo he was young enough that it wouldn't have been insane to project a continuation of that trend. last season was a step back.....so what caused it is the real ??
here is the PPG production progression of another fairly recent top 5 draft pick who is only 15 months younger than Kotkaniemi
.38
.39
.48
.70
Notice that example you use, the trend lines shows improvement over time and you can't just hand wave a full season worth of points away.
There are a lot of red flags with KK, one of the flag is he went like PPG for the 1st 14 games and then put up 13 points for the remaining 65 games. Another flag is that his TOI dropped to the point he was playing 8-11 minutes for 9/11 playoff games meaning the coach didn't trust him. It's not like that is just a playoff thing, his TOI dropped a lot and he played between 9-11 minutes for a good portion of the season. Another flag is he doesn't kill penalties, he spent 10 minutes on the PK for the whole of last season.
4.8M for a left shot center that doesn't PK and might put up 40 points if you put him on the PP is not a efficient contract. I didn't realize that he didn't PK, so with that in mind, he needs to be hitting 50-60 points in order to really justify his usage considering how limited he is as a center.
you've been pounding the drum pretty hard on resigning Elias Lindholm for $7MM even though his PPG production over the last three seasons has gone:
1.0
.8
.59
Seems to me, if we're looking for a guy to play 3C, Lindholm for 6 years (likely more) all of them played on the wrong side of 30, at $7MM per is WAY riskier than Kotkaniemi for 6 years (none of them on the wrong side of 30) at $4.8MM. You get legitimate upside potential with Kotkaniemi and there is an escape hatch open until the end of the 25/26 season if things don't work out.
I think i was over reacting to his playoff performance. At the very least, Lindholm was one of the reason our playoff PK was like 80+% despite facing the top 2 PP units in Edmonton and Nashville. He provides elite defense and he put up 10 points in 13 playoff games.
If we get KK, we essentially have 1 center that can't PK. With Lindholm, all our centers can PK and we can distribute the minutes a role better.
With Lindholm, we can play him as the matchup center, with KK, you can only play him against soft matchups.
With Lindholm, you can slot him in the top6 whenever there is an injury and he has a history of putting up points when paired with good wingers. With KK, there is no history of him being able to play up the lineup.
Literally the only reason to get KK is to get rid of Mik and the buyout for KK is negligible compared to Mik.