Canucks News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | Let the negotiations through the media begin!

[Mr. Canucklehead]

Last one was over 1,000. Continue here.

Vector's Transaction Tracker, UFA & RFA Projections, & Cap Space Spreadsheet

Click to read more...

 

[arttk]

I think many are selling Kotkaniemi short. He’s been on a similar age/performance trajectory as Joel Eriksson Ek who has turned into a very valuable player.

He’s had the misfortune of being a high Habs draft pick, part of an offer sheet, and subsequently was given an absurd contract. None of those were his fault. It was managers who created those situations. He’s been under the microscope from the start and it’s clearly affected him.

It may still take a season or two before his performance begins to match his salary. But it seems very likely that his contract is going to be a great bargain for whoever holds it then.

If you are acquiring Kotkaniemi, the real value is in the cap savings in years 5-6-7-8 of that contract—not for the salary/value now.

i don't watch KK at all but it seems it's the Canes fans who are the ones that are super down on him.

 

[Jerry the great]

4.8M cap and 27 points is really inefficient and it's not like he is like a shutdown ace. Even if he is a shutdown ace, you don't pay that much money for that amount of production.
You expect around 50 point production at that price range and if he is *only* a 40ish point guy, he needs to be pretty damn good defensively for that contract to be efficient.

so you're basing this entirely off of last season.

 

[arttk]

so you're basing this entirely off of last season.

his stats in his last 4 season:
2023-24: 27pt (79gp)
2022-23: 43pt (82gp)
2021-22: 29pt (66gp)
2020-21: 20pt (56gp)

He is not improving year over year. Even if he bounces back to 40ish point center, he is still overpaid. So the question will be, is he just a 30-40pt center or does he have potential to be more. He hasn't shown anything that he is the latter and it's more likely he is the former and that makes the contract inefficient.
the most important thing is, can the Canes continue to make that bet while they are in their contention window.

 

[Nopefully]

If they trade Hronek for Necas+ or whatever without an immediate replacement for a RHD to play with Hughes, I'm pretty sure they would have some under-the-table assurance from a UFA that they intend to sign here. Maybe a text from an agent on a burner phone?

 

[Deeds26]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1798056804255178841

 

[TruGr1t]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1798056804255178841

Forget that then.

 

[Vector]

The Canes are always going to have an inflated view of their own assets. They always have.

 

[SeawaterOnIce]

The Canes are always going to have an inflated view of their own assets. They always have.

They literally wanted Nils Hoglander for Ethan Bear.

 

[bossram]

What if it still Pettersson? Canucks sign Lindholm, get Necas+++

Uh. No.

 

[Vector]

They literally wanted Nils Hoglander for Ethan Bear.

This was exactly the example I was thinking of. We also heard the same thing last season with Miller. They were sniffing around on him hoping for a discount. The rumoured offer for Pettersson is very weak.

 

[bossram]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1798056804255178841

As I've been saying. There's no Hronek-to-Carolina deal.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Carolina can eat shit then and fail to reach the SCF (let alone win it) again.

 

[StickShift]

I’ve always felt that Hoglander was the key to a Carolina deal.

 

[thecupismine]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1798056804255178841

Yeah, if a young, top 4 dman in his mid 20s isn't enough, and your asset plays the more premium position (RD vs RW), and scored all of 6 last points last year while playing on the 2nd unit PP, then what the Canes are valuing doesn't align with the Canucks.

Hronek should've never been the key asset in a Necas deal regardless.

 

[mriswith]

Teams should just stop doing trade talks with Carolina for any significant pieces, it's a waste of time.

They approach every trade like they need to massively win the deal on day 1, they do not believe in fair value exchange, and that's why they end up dumpster diving every year.

 

[credulous]

The Canes are always going to have an inflated view of their own assets. They always have.

i think people massively overestimate hronek's value. from a pure talent/production standpoint he's worth quite a bit but his contract situation/demands absolutely crater his value. don't sleep on how important his arb rights are

 

[Vector]

i think people massively overestimate hronek's value. from a pure talent/production standpoint he's worth quite a bit but his contract situation/demands absolutely crater his value. don't sleep on how important his arb rights are

I'd say the exact same thing for Necas and he doesn't play a premium position.

 

[racerjoe]

i think people massively overestimate hronek's value. from a pure talent/production standpoint he's worth quite a bit but his contract situation/demands absolutely crater his value. don't sleep on how important his arb rights are

But then couldn't the same be said of Necas...?

 

[credulous]

I'd say the exact same thing for Necas and he doesn't play a premium position.

one of the reasons hroneks position is so good (for him, not the team) is that he has an extremely good arb case. his counting stats are all near top of the charts for his position and his comparables are all really favorable for him. the only downside of arb for hronek is he can't get the security of a long term deal

necas has a comparatively weak case and is subject to an extra year in any award so there's a lot more pressure on him to come to an agreement

the team has a lot more leverage than in the hronek case

 

[mriswith]

i think people massively overestimate hronek's value. from a pure talent/production standpoint he's worth quite a bit but his contract situation/demands absolutely crater his value. don't sleep on how important his arb rights are

Sure and I'm not a big fan of Hronek either, but Necas wants the same money as Hronek, 7-8M while being a 40 ES point winger.

 

[UrbanImpact]

I still dont understand why people think Necas is the target....Jake MF Geuntzel is about to become a free agent. He should be our number #1 priority if we are so lucky enough for him to reach Free Agency and have interest in becoming a Canuck. He is 100x better and more valuable than Necas.

It would still also allow us to move Hronek for a different piece or assets that we can grow or sell to help the team immediately.


As for Kotkaniemi, the kid is still only 23 yrs old.... Id love to sign him if Carolina buys him out. Hed be an upgrade on Bleuger and Aman. Who knows, maybe he becomes a home-run addition for us, the Hockey Gods owe us for slow cooking Forsling.. Maybe Kotkaniemi is being slow cooked too and this time its our turn to reap the benefits.

 

[Jerry the great]

his stats in his last 4 season:
2023-24: 27pt (79gp)
2022-23: 43pt (82gp)
2021-22: 29pt (66gp)
2020-21: 20pt (56gp)

He is not improving year over year. Even if he bounces back to 40ish point center, he is still overpaid. So the question will be, is he just a 30-40pt center or does he have potential to be more. He hasn't shown anything that he is the latter and it's more likely he is the former and that makes the contract inefficient.
the most important thing is, can the Canes continue to make that bet while they are in their contention window.

prior to last season PPG increased from:

.36
.44
.53

In 22/23 he was absolutely earning his contract and at 22yo he was young enough that it wouldn't have been insane to project a continuation of that trend. last season was a step back.....so what caused it is the real ??

here is the PPG production progression of another fairly recent top 5 draft pick who is only 15 months younger than Kotkaniemi

.38
.39
.48
.70

this player was labeled a disappointment at best, outright bust by many, right up until the end of Feb this season when he got hot and went from .60 PPG to scoring at .95PPG over the last quarter of the season and stayed hot into the playoffs. Now he's an untouchable stud and core piece going forward. It's entirely possible the Kotkaniemi doesn't live up to the contract, plenty don't but you usually have to take risks in order to get a favorably inefficient contract on the books.

you've been pounding the drum pretty hard on resigning Elias Lindholm for $7MM even though his PPG production over the last three seasons has gone:

1.0
.8
.59

Seems to me, if we're looking for a guy to play 3C, Lindholm for 6 years (likely more) all of them played on the wrong side of 30, at $7MM per is WAY riskier than Kotkaniemi for 6 years (none of them on the wrong side of 30) at $4.8MM. You get legitimate upside potential with Kotkaniemi and there is an escape hatch open until the end of the 25/26 season if things don't work out.

 

[UrbanImpact]

Dream Scenario for 2024 Season

Debrusk Miller Boeser
Hoglander EP40 Guentzel
Joshua Kotkaniemi Garland
Podz Suter PDG

Hughes Roy
Soucy Myers
Zadorov Juulsen

Demko
Silovs

1. Sign Geuntzel, Debrusk, Roy, Kotkaniemi (after buyout)
2. Trade Hronek for assets
3. Use part of those assets to get rid of Mikhayev
4. Re-sign Z, Joshua,Myers, let every other UFA walk

 

[Wisp]

I still dont understand why people think Necas is the target....Jake MF Geuntzel is about to become a free agent. He should be our number #1 priority if we are so lucky enough for him to reach Free Agency and have interest in becoming a Canuck. He is 100x better and more valuable than Necas.

I shouldn't have to explain the difference between trading for a RFAs and signing UFAs, but Guentzal as a UFA has say and needs to be recruited.

Typically you'd have a good idea if a UFA player is interested in your club at this point from backdoor whisperings.

 

[Vector]

-spends the first 6 minutes defending Gazdic, which, of course he would

Necas:
-everyone knows that Necas is available; doesn't believe the Necas playing in Carolina next year is the preferred option
-Necas was part of the Pettersson offer; harder deal to do now without Pettersson
-talking to the Canucks about some of their top prospects
-don't think Hronek is going to do this

Canucks' UFAs:
-there's still time to sign them
-both Myers and Canucks know what the deal with Myers is going to look like
-trying to take some bigger swings at some of their guys; names Joshua and Zadorov
-know exactly what it's going to take to re-sign Zadorov but is not convinced they are going to be able to get there
-would love to keep Lindholm but going to be hard
-looking at creating space; who they have to move out or what is it going to cost to move out