Confirmed with Link: Canadiens Will Pick 5th (Hughes Presser in OP) NO POLITICS

[417]

Sigh. I give up, it's like I'm screaming into the void.

Ditto

We've established why it understandable he wouldn't go 2nd. What we can't establish is why he shouldn't go 5th.

IF that happens, then the reasons would be the same as to why he didn't go #2, #3 or #4.

Not sure what you're not capturing here.

The draft doesn't start # 5...

 

[WeThreeKings]

His talent is undeniable, but again, if it was just about that...then he'd be the unquestioned #2

But he ain't.


Ok?

Knowing this, if the Habs do indeed pass on him @ 5, wouldn't it stand to reason that they'd pass for the same reasons that made him available @ 5 in the first place?

And there is also the fact that Bob McKenzie himself said that the meetings with Michkov can go a long way as to where he goes and how far he drops.

What if his answers to a lot of the questions they have are bad? What if the rumors of him being a bad teammate are true, do you just ignore the very important room and culture piece?

There's just a lot we as fans won't get the information to, on top of everything else.

So what if we meet with Michkov and he makes it clear that Montreal isn't a destination he wants to play? He could keep signing in the KHL until you lose patience and have to trade his rights to where he wants to go and I doubt you'd get an equivalent return to his talent level, just like Adam Fox didn't.

I would just appreciate if people would understand there's more nuance than just picking Michkov on a pure offensive talent equation.

 

[4thLineDuster2012]

It's unfortunate that the media/fans will have and have painted this situation as "Montreal will pass on Michkov" but in reality, based on his talent and accomplishments, he should probably be going #2 or at worst, #3 (or at least that's what I've been told)...which of course means up to 4 teams will have passed on him if the Habs do end up passing on him @ 5.

So clearly, fair or not, there are some red flags and it's not just as simple as picking the best talent available. The risk at #2, 3, 4 or 5...is totally different then the risk at #8-9-10, etc.


I mean...there's got to be reasons why the player most widely consider to be #2 behind Bedard in terms of pure talent, is expected to not be picked before #5 at the earliest by most draft experts.

That's because Carlsson, Smith and fantilli also have elite offensive tools and project to be offensive dynamos in the nhl in their own rights. Same as Michkov. But most lists predict a clear separation between the top 5 and the others. If the rumors about Leonard is true, as good as he is, he doesn't have those tools and thats a reason why he scored almost 40 fewer points than Smith despite playing on the same line and same PP.

Prospect Risers via pNHLe: 2023-03-21

For those who aren’t familiar with pNHLe, it is a tool that attempts to estimate the peak production of a prospect in the NHL. This is based on many years of data and statistical similarities. It isn’t perfect, but it generally does a good job of identifying those who stand out both

dobberprospects.com

Interesting list shows pNHLe. Yeah Michkov will never reach 155 pts, but Bedard won't score 151 either. Neither will Hutson and Jiricek score over 100 pts but it's still interesting to see Michkov is the only one who can hang with Bedard. I like Leonard. I think he can be a 30-30 for us if we pass on Michkov. Also, Arizona will certainly skip Michkov because hed never go play there. But I think Philli would take him before Wsh.

 

[417]

It's not though!! The teams ahead of us have concrete viable options that makes sense available to them. The habs don't.

I'm no draft expert, but if you're suggesting there's a huge gap between Fantilli, Carlson, Smith and Michkov vs Benson, Leonard or whoever else....fair.

But based on many of the scouting lists i've seen, this doesn't appear to be the case.

 

[Twisted Sinister]

I agree, but I don't see how that means it's ridiculous to think Leonard could have a Marchand or Pavelski like impact.

I'd take Michkov. I don't think it's likely that we'll get another chance to take that kind of player anytime soon. But that doesn't mean Leonard, Reinbacher, Dvorsky, Benson, Wood, Moore, whoever can't be great players in their own right.

Sure, I'm sure most of them will be fine, but losing out on great for fine is a huge missed opportunity

 

[HabbyGuy]

Ditto



IF that happens, then the reasons would be the same as to why he didn't go #2, #3 or #4.

Not sure what you're not capturing here.

The draft doesn't start # 5...

I'm dumbfounded by this response, I've given you reasons as to why the others would pass, you've given me nothing as to why the habs would. And I'm the one not understanding here?

Someone help me here. What am I missing?

 

[WeThreeKings]

It's not though!! The teams ahead of us have concrete viable options that makes sense available to them. The habs don't.

But why is Will Smith a viable option and Ryan Leonard isn't?

If Michkov was in last year's draft, would you excuse teams taking Slafkovsky, Nemec and Cooley over Michkov?

I love Will Smith, but let's be honest here.. Michkov is the better offensive player between the two and has been on the scene a lot longer than Smith. They both have the exact same question marks from a hockey standpoint and we know that Michkov is a tier above him offensively.

 

[Saxon]

Of course it's obvious lol but that's not what I was debating with you.

I was debating the issue of those suggesting that if the Habs pass on him @ 5, they'd be making a huge mistake.

Maybe it would/will end up being a huge mistake, but it's the same for the teams ahead of them too.

Because the talent gap between Michkov and Fantilli, Carlsson and Smith is close enough to not warrant taking the risk. But the talent gap between Michkov and the rest is worth taking the risk, as demonstrated by the voting in Bobby Mac’s list.

 

[HabbyGuy]

I'm no draft expert, but if you're suggesting there's a huge gap between Fantilli, Carlson, Smith and Michkov vs Benson, Leonard or whoever else....fair.

But based on many of the scouting lists i've seen, this doesn't appear to be the case.

Moving on.

 

[417]

And there is also the fact that Bob McKenzie himself said that the meetings with Michkov can go a long way as to where he goes and how far he drops.

What if his answers to a lot of the questions they have are bad? What if the rumors of him being a bad teammate are true, do you just ignore the very important room and culture piece?

There's just a lot we as fans won't get the information to, on top of everything else.

So what if we meet with Michkov and he makes it clear that Montreal isn't a destination he wants to play? He could keep signing in the KHL until you lose patience and have to trade his rights to where he wants to go and I doubt you'd get an equivalent return to his talent level, just like Adam Fox didn't.

I would just appreciate if people would understand there's more nuance than just picking Michkov on a pure offensive talent equation.

That's also where i'm coming from.

Fair or not, but there is a world of difference between measuring the risks associated with picking Michkov inside the top 5 vs picking him 8th or 9th or 10th or later.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Because the talent gap between Michkov and Fantilli, Carlsson and Smith is close enough to not warrant taking the risk. But the talent gap between Michkov and the rest is worth taking the risk, as demonstrated by the voting in Bobby Mac’s list.

So you believe Will Smith is a 'generational offensive talent'? Or close enough that it warrants passing on Michkov if the risk is all bologna?

Like the argument completely crumbles on itself as soon as we get to talking about Will Smith vs. Matvei Michkov. If you're going to lose your minds on the Montreal Canadiens passing, you should be wondering why the Sharks get a free pass.

 

[HabbyGuy]

But why is Will Smith a viable option and Ryan Leonard isn't?

If Michkov was in last year's draft, would you excuse teams taking Slafkovsky, Nemec and Cooley over Michkov?

I love Will Smith, but let's be honest here.. Michkov is the better offensive player between the two and has been on the scene a lot longer than Smith. They both have the exact same question marks from a hockey standpoint and we know that Michkov is a tier above him offensively.

The question is not about Will Smith. The question is about Michkov if he's there at 5. If Will Smith is there at 5 we can have that discussion

 

[417]

I'm dumbfounded by this response, I've given you reasons as to why the others would pass, you've given me nothing as to why the habs would. And I'm the one not understanding here?

But I have...they'd be passing for the same reasons the teams ahead of him passed.

Someone help me here. What am I missing?

I'll double down - can anyone help him out here?

 

[Twisted Sinister]

Nope. The opposite is true.

I believe the average height of an NHL defenseman is 6'2"

 

[WeThreeKings]

The question is not about Will Smith. The question is about Michkov if he's there at 5. If Will Smith is there at 5 we can have that discussion

But you are saying all the teams above Montreal have a viable option instead of Michkov, but the Habs don't.. but why is Will Smith a viable option? If you believe what you believe about Michkov's talent level, there's no way you'd believe it being a sane thing to pass on Michkov for Will Smith.

Unless of course you think Will Smith is also a generational offensive talent or guaranteed PPG+ superstar?

Or is it just because its been socialized to you longer that Will Smith will go top 4?

 

[Saxon]

So you believe Will Smith is a 'generational offensive talent'? Or close enough that it warrants passing on Michkov if the risk is all bologna?

Like the argument completely crumbles on itself as soon as we get to talking about Will Smith vs. Matvei Michkov. If you're going to lose your minds on the Montreal Canadiens passing, you should be wondering why the Sharks get a free pass.

I don’t think any of them are generational talents……..

 

[WeThreeKings]

I don’t think any of them are generational talents……..

Then you believe Will Smith is on an equal offensive plane as Matvei Michkov?

And if you do that, then maybe Michkov isn't as great of a player as he's being made out to be?

 

[417]

Because the talent gap between Michkov and Fantilli, Carlsson and Smith is close enough to not warrant taking the risk. But the talent gap between Michkov and the rest is worth taking the risk, as demonstrated by the voting in Bobby Mac’s list.

For the most part, everything i've read/heard says that if this was based on talent alone...Michkov might even be challenging for 1st.

So let's agree that if we were to remove all external factors for all of these prospects, Bedard & Michkov would be the undisputed #1 and #2.

Given this, he's not a consensus #2....you tell me why.

 

[Saxon]

Then you believe Will Smith is on an equal offensive plane as Matvei Michkov?

And if you do that, then maybe Michkov isn't as great of a player as he's being made out to be?

No, a tier below, but not worth the risk for some teams.

 

[417]

Moving on.

You can post all of the emojis you want lol.

I'm just telling you what i've read on many scouting lists and draft predictions.

The talent i'm being told Michkov has, doesn't jive with where most predict he's going to be drafted.

I'm not the one inventing this narrative. Sorry that upsets you.

 

[Saxon]

For the most part, everything i've read/heard says that if this was based on talent alone...Michkov might even be challenging for 1st.

So let's agree that if we were to remove all external factors for all of these prospects, Bedard & Michkov would be the undisputed #1 and #2.

Given this, he's not a consensus #2....you tell me why.

Because NHL teams are risk adverse.

 

[417]

But you are saying all the teams above Montreal have a viable option instead of Michkov, but the Habs don't.. but why is Will Smith a viable option? If you believe what you believe about Michkov's talent level, there's no way you'd believe it being a sane thing to pass on Michkov for Will Smith.

Unless of course you think Will Smith is also a generational offensive talent or guaranteed PPG+ superstar?

Or is it just because its been socialized to you longer that Will Smith will go top 4?

I mean......

 

[HabbyGuy]

And there is also the fact that Bob McKenzie himself said that the meetings with Michkov can go a long way as to where he goes and how far he drops.

What if his answers to a lot of the questions they have are bad? What if the rumors of him being a bad teammate are true, do you just ignore the very important room and culture piece?

There's just a lot we as fans won't get the information to, on top of everything else.

So what if we meet with Michkov and he makes it clear that Montreal isn't a destination he wants to play? He could keep signing in the KHL until you lose patience and have to trade his rights to where he wants to go and I doubt you'd get an equivalent return to his talent level, just like Adam Fox didn't.

I would just appreciate if people would understand there's more nuance than just picking Michkov on a pure offensive talent equation.

Well then we'd finally have a reason as to why we'd might pass. The question I am posing, is before knowing this, why would we pass? Because up until now, none of his detractors have explained why he shouldn't be the obvious choice.

 

[417]

Because NHL teams are risk adverse.

When you're picking top 5, in a draft projected to be this good (alledgedly)

I get why.

If you're the Washington Capitals picking 8th...the risk is a lot less of an issue than it is for the Ducks or Blue Jackets or Sharks or Montreal Canadiens.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Unless of course you think Will Smith is also a generational offensive talent or guaranteed PPG+ superstar?

You're starting to sound like Belial with all those strawmen.