Well then we'd finally have a reason as to why we'd might pass. The question I am posing, is before knowing this, why would we pass? Because up until now, none of his detractors have explained why he shouldn't be the obvious choice.
No one here is a detractor on Matvei Michkov.. I have not seen one person say that the Montreal Canadiens should not pick Matvei Michkov under no circumstances.
Bob McKenzie:
"He’s under contract to a KHL team (SKA St. Petersburg) for three more seasons and unless accommodations are reached between his NHL club and his KHL team, Michkov is not expected to play in the NHL any earlier than the fall of 2026. Might he sign an extension in Russia? Who knows?"
Kent Hughes himself when asked about Michkov also mentioned the possibility that he signs an extension in Russia. That means there is verifiable risk amongst NHL executives, teams, scouts and media members that Michkov may not simply cross over in 3 years and that he may actually extend longer in the KHL.
Bob McKenzie:
"Because Michkov is a Russian, and because Russia waged war on Ukraine that has resulted in both real-world and hockey-world sanctions and consequences against Russia, NHL GMs, executives and team head scouts have not been able to see him play live this season – not at the World Junior Hockey Championship in Halifax last Christmas and not in the KHL either. Because NHL club team personnel are not travelling freely to Russia, in the modern era of the NHL draft, certainly post-Soviet Union/Iron Curtain, no elite NHL prospect has had fewer live viewings from NHL personnel than Michkov."
Teams have not been able to have live viewings of Michkov for 2 years. This is an issue. There are a lot of things you can't see on video. You can't see what he's doing when he's not on screen in the defensive zone. You can't see what his body language is after they get scored on, or if his teammate misses him when he's open, when he misses a chance. You can't see how he carries himself on the bench. You can't see how interacts with his teammates or coaches. There's a vital evaluation point and familiarity that you don't have.
That also means they haven't gotten to know him as a person or his growth as a person over the last two years. When you are investing a high pick, you are not just investing on a hockey player, you are investing on a person.
Bob McKenzie:
"More rumours/60 than any other prospect and so many unanswered queries and unsubstantiated theories on everything from whether he’s a good teammate to the mysterious circumstances surrounding the death of his father this season, a traumatic event that the teenager, as one would expect, is still processing."
There's character concerns that they don't have answers to and there is still the mysterious death of his father. Yeah, the father thing might be a nothing burger but it's not like Russia is squeaky clean on how it operates. But the main issue here is the potential character concerns. The Montreal Canadiens in particular are all about building an inclusive locker room where everyone is high character individuals and they won't risk that by bringing in a potentially volatile personality.
That is where having no live viewings and no contact with a player over the last two years becomes a bigger sticking point.
Arpon Basu/Montreal: I honestly believe the Canadiens are not overly concerned about Michkov coming over from Russia. It is their strict hockey evaluation that has them concerned about him, most notably his size and the one-dimensional nature of his game. The talent in the offensive zone is undeniable, but it is the other two zones that I feel concerns the Canadiens. And that’s not only a reference to his lack of defensive acumen, the fact he is not much of a driver through the neutral zone is something I feel concerns them as well.
There's hockey concerns as well. Michkov is a small player. Now, I don't particularly have an issue with small forwards but it is clear the Canadiens are concerned about the size mix in their top 6. I also don't have a concern over the one-dimensional nature of his game but that's a concern for teams as well.
If he's only good in one zone, that severely hampers what they can do with him on the ice and the neutral zone is one of MSL biggest focus areas.
So based on all of that - the concerns over his contract status, his ability to stay in Russia if he doesn't like where he is drafted, the geopolitical uncertainty, the character concerns, the lack of live viewings, the lack of actually knowing the player well, the concerns over his defensive and neutral zone play, and the possibility that his offensive game just isn't as good as billed or hasn't grown enough over the last two years.. the risk profile is not nothing, there's some legitimate concerns across the spectrum there.
And then you need to remove your own evaluation from Leonard/Reinbacher and understand that other scouting staffs and teams may see them in higher regard than you do.
If the evaluation is that Michkov is a 70-90 point forward who can't drive through the neutral zone, can't defend all that well, makes your forward group too small to contend, may take 3 years or longer to come over, may not be a good person or teammate, and may not actually be a 70-90 point forward since his progression is harder to track AND your evaluation is that Leonard is a 60-80 point forward who can provide a physical element, defensive conscience, speed, and creativity to a line-up that needs it.. why would you assume ALL of that risk for a deviation of ~10-20 points on either end of that projected offensive output?
