Confirmed with Link: Canadiens Will Pick 5th (Hughes Presser in OP) NO POLITICS

[Michoulicious]

Difference between Fantilli, Carlsson and Smith is negligible in my book.

Bedard/Michkov is the clearcut top tier. Afterward it's murky for the 3 others C.

Trading down to #5 if you can't get Michkov/Bedard is what I'd do. Good thing Michkov will likely fall to #4 or 5 according to most sources.

Sounds like a hot take, but it's really not.

We are in a great spot at #5. Either Michkov's falls on our lap, either we get one of the 3 big centers.

I'd certainly not trade up for Fantilli.

 

[VirginiaMtlExpat]

Smith and Michkov goes top 4...

Its not crazy to think that

1) Michkov is the best player after Bedard, by a clear margin.

2) Smith has the best offensive package after Bedard and Michkov.

I think its, although a lower odd scenario, kinda possible that Carlsson fall to 5.

Out of all the possibilities possible, a team picking in front of us may pick Reinbacher as they may see it as a rare opportunity to grab what they believe is a 1RD. What if a CLB preferred center in the draft is Dvorsky?

We take for granted that there is a clear top 5, but the draft never happens like we think and there is always surprise. The truth is, after Bedard, its all up in the air.

I alluded to that too. Every recent draft there seems to be a D who goes top 5.

 

[Jaynki]

I alluded to that too. Every recent draft there seems to be a D who goes top 5.

The first D picked in:

2022 : 2nd OV (Nemec)
2022 : 1st OV (Power)
2020 : 5th OV (Sanderson)
2019 : 4th OV (Byram)
2018 : 1st OV (Dahlin)
2017 : 3rd OV (Heiskanen)
2016 : 5th OV (Juolevi)
2015 : 5th OV (Hanifin)
2014 : 1st OV (Ekblad)
2013 : 4th OV (Jones)
2012 : 2nd OV (Murray)

That is telling. We take the big five for granted but i bet strongly we will be surprised on draft day.

 

[VirginiaMtlExpat]

The first D picked in:

2022 : 2nd OV (Nemec)
2022 : 1st OV (Power)
2020 : 5th OV (Sanderson)
2019 : 4th OV (Byram)
2018 : 1st OV (Dahlin)
2017 : 3rd OV (Heiskanen)
2016 : 5th OV (Juolevi)
2015 : 5th OV (Hanifin)
2014 : 1st OV (Ekblad)
2013 : 4th OV (Jones)
2012 : 2nd OV (Murray)

That is telling. We take the big five for granted but i bet strongly we will be surprised on draft day.

Hopefully not us. We need a star at forward. Hopefully a durable one.

 

[absolute garbage]

People on this site should have to their 'picks' permanently engraved on their profile for us to marvel at years later.

Having an opinion is fine but some legitimately think they are smarter than NHL scouting departments is lol.

Are you aware that if you just picked the highest scoring prospect available with every pick (with some weighing depending on position/league), you would literally have a better draft record than every team in the NHL?

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Are you aware that if you just picked the highest scoring prospect available with every pick (with some weighing depending on position/league), you would literally have a better draft record than every team in the NHL?

Someone did this with Vancouver. I can't remember if they just picked the OHL, or CHL as a whole, but the team would be very good.

 

[Runner77]

But they can change their mind. It was a snapdhot of a moment. Decisions changes sometimes.

The ole Bergy “anything can happen” axiom, huh?

 

[TopTenPlayz]

1,2,3 will be Bedard, Fsntilli and Carlson. SJ and Mtl is where it gets interesting. There's a way for Hughes around this. If the Habs dont want Michkov, they call SJ and offer 5th + decent prospect (a la Kidney or Farrell, etc) for 4th. And telling SJ that they'll pick Smith.

If SJ considers that offer, it means that they're genuine about taking Michkov over Smith. Plus they'll get extra assets from Mtl. If not, it means SJ will take Smith. Normally, GMs keep their words and don't lie to each other to maintain good future partnerships.

If SJ says no to the offer, Mtl should then look to trade down, aiming at a team that really wants Michkov. Maybe Yzerman in Detroit with his 90s Russian teammates and Kuch in TB will sway his mind in picking Michkov. 5th for 9th + 17th. I really don't see the value of picking anyone else than Michkov at 5th. They're pretty much interchangeable and grabbing the 17th pick would give us one more shot at another good player.

But if it were up to me, I'll just stay put and pick Michkov at 5

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Are you aware that if you just picked the highest scoring prospect available with every pick (with some weighing depending on position/league), you would literally have a better draft record than every team in the NHL?

Doubtful.

If the habs did that last draft, they would've picked Dumais 1st overall.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

It’s all politics when it comes to getting jobs in the NHL. They’re all friends of a friend of a friend. I don’t even think Bergevin had a highschool degree but a sports organization worth billions of dollars was comfortable enough to have him in a role of authority over their product because he slummed it as a depth defensemen in the NHL as a player. When someone says “some people think they’re smarter then actual pro scouting teams” they aren’t saying a whole lot. I could sit on my couch and tell you Karl Alzner is finished or Jack Campbell is a bum, yet that makes it past an entire “team” of people. Let that sink.

Bergevin played 1191 NHL games. That's worth far more than a high school degree.

I'm sure you also said Chiarot and Matheson were bums when they were acquired, and yet they both ended up being great signing/trade.

It's easy to say stuff when your job is not on the line. The habs just had a 100+ pt season and lost in the 1st round. Bergevin needed to improve the team. Alzner didn't have a good last season with Washington, but he was still only 29 years old, so he had a decent chance of rebounding. Instead of giving up good assets in a trade, Bergevin decided to sign Alzner who was seen as the 2nd best dman available in free agency. Signing Alzner was a gamble, and it didn't pay off, but not all gambles do. A GM that doesn't gamble (take chances) would make a terrible GM. Hughes took a gamble last season by trading Romanov for an underperforming, but talented player, and the results are looking great so far.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Bergevin played 1191 NHL games. That's worth far more than a high school degree.

I'm sure you also said Chiarot and Matheson were bums when they were acquired, and yet they both ended up being great signing/trade.

It's easy to say stuff when your job is not on the line. The habs just had a 100+ pt season and lost in the 1st round. Bergevin needed to improve the team. Alzner didn't have a good last season with Washington, but he was still only 29 years old, so he had a decent chance of rebounding. Instead of giving up good assets in a trade, Bergevin decided to sign Alzner who was seen as the 2nd best dman available in free agency. Signing Alzner was a gamble, and it didn't pay off, but not all gambles do. A GM that doesn't gamble (take chances) would make a terrible GM. Hughes took a gamble last season by trading Romanov for an underperforming, but talented player, and the results are looking great so far.

Signing Alzner wasn't a gamble that didn't pay off. It was playing russian roulette with 6 bullets.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Are you aware that if you just picked the highest scoring prospect available with every pick (with some weighing depending on position/league), you would literally have a better draft record than every team in the NHL?

I would love to see proof of this......

Doubtful.

If the habs did that last draft, they would've picked Dumais 1st overall.

Exactly.

 

[sandviper]

I agree 100% with this. Put some skin in the game of the smooth talkers and other bullshitters.

I’ll go first. i still stand by this statement i made back in March. We aren’t picking Michkov. Unlike most hard headed people though, I will be happy to be wrong with this prediction.

 

[BenchBrawl]

View attachment 713592

I’ll go first. i still stand by this statement i made back in March. We aren’t picking Michkov. Unlike most hard headed people though, I will be happy to be wrong with this prediction.

I'm not into predicting what will happen, I'm into stating what I'd do if put in charge.

And what I'd do, is pick Michkov. Then Carlsson. Then Fantilli.

If they're all gone, I'm not sure. Trading the pick would be a possibility. I don't have enough viewings of the Smith's and Reinbacher's to have a strong conviction. Smith makes me nervous he won't translate, although I like the magical side to his game.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

I would love to see proof of this......


Exactly. There is zero percent chance that such a model would work on a year to year basis and would be a disaster on many years. Perhaps if you find the right team at the right time the numbers could align but my dog leaving poo skids on a giant draft board could also get lucky now and then

 

[BenchBrawl]

If they don't pick Michkov, it's all over for hockey in Montreal. This will be the seed of long-term destruction, as the generational transfer of hockey glory disconnects and leaves it in the dust.

A catastrophe. Brutal as a gulag.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Smith and Michkov goes top 4...

Its not crazy to think that

1) Michkov is the best player after Bedard, by a clear margin.

2) Smith has the best offensive package after Bedard and Michkov.

I think its, although a lower odd scenario, kinda possible that Carlsson fall to 5.

Out of all the possibilities possible, a team picking in front of us may pick Reinbacher as they may see it as a rare opportunity to grab what they believe is a 1RD. What if a CLB preferred center in the draft is Dvorsky?

We take for granted that there is a clear top 5, but the draft never happens like we think and there is always surprise. The truth is, after Bedard, its all up in the air.

I would say that Bedard, Carlsson and Fantilli are all locks to be gone in the first 5. There are however scenarios where Michkov and/or Smith fall out of the top 5. I am not saying that this should happen but I could see a team liking Dvorsky, Leonard, maybe even Gabe Perreault or someone believes that Wood is a budding star. Maybe a team is horny for a dman.....who knows. What we do know is that these things so rarely go as expected so that is what we should expect, as counter intuitive as that feels.

If they don't pick Michkov, it's all over for hockey in Montreal. This will be the seed of long-term destruction, as the generational transfer of hockey glory disconnects and leaves it in the dust.

A catastrophe. Brutal as a gulag.

You should make sure that you do not watch the draft alone......

 

[ZUKI]

It isn’t hard to be better than the Habs — who are rock bottom or just around rock bottom in many draft-related categories.

Zero PPG players drafted in over 20 years is damning.

Ribiero got a 84 points season, but not with the Habs. He was a 2nd draft selection.

 

[ZUKI]

Most scouting departments are known for
f***ing things up. Lolol.

Most fans "departments" are know for f***ing things up a lot more than them

 

[CHwest]

It’s all politics when it comes to getting jobs in the NHL. They’re all friends of a friend of a friend. I don’t even think Bergevin had a highschool degree but a sports organization worth billions of dollars was comfortable enough to have him in a role of authority over their product because he slummed it as a depth defensemen in the NHL as a player. When someone says “some people think they’re smarter then actual pro scouting teams” they aren’t saying a whole lot. I could sit on my couch and tell you Karl Alzner is finished or Jack Campbell is a bum, yet that makes it past an entire “team” of people. Let that sink.

Binman's problem was that he always wanted to be smarter than everyone else and consistently ignore consensus.

 

[NewEraGM]

Dude, the next step is to say : no one is in the same tier as McDavid… but that is not the point of my initial response and that is clearly not what you said.

You started off by using the Stars as a model for the Habs. A team with no superstars. Then you started playing around with your own definition of what a superstar is.

The first things you said was superstar = top 10. Dallas arguably has a top 10 player. Then, since it didn’t fit your needs, you shifted to top 5 and then shifted again to top 3.

There is a huge difference if you are saying top 10 or if you are saying top 3. You can’t say something and then change the definition along to fit your needs. That’s moving the goal posts. Imagine if teams could do that.

Anyway, back to the main subject. For Dallas to be a model, the Habs need a top 10 player and I don’t see it happening unless they get lucky with Michkov. Lucky that he falls to 5, lucky that Hughes doesn’t get scared and lucky that he becomes an arguably top 10ish / 100+ pts guy. And that is not what you were initially saying.

Ok even if I go back to my original definition of superstar if that makes you happy (superstar = top 10), I still don’t think Robertson is top 10.

What I’m saying that whether you take top 3, 5 or 10, he’s below all of them. Ultimately it makes no difference if you call him a superstar and I don’t, he is what he is.

Difference between Fantilli, Carlsson and Smith is negligible in my book.

Bedard/Michkov is the clearcut top tier. Afterward it's murky for the 3 others C.

Trading down to #5 if you can't get Michkov/Bedard is what I'd do. Good thing Michkov will likely fall to #4 or 5 according to most sources.

Sounds like a hot take, but it's really not.

We are in a great spot at #5. Either Michkov's falls on our lap, either we get one of the 3 big centers.

I'd certainly not trade up for Fantilli.

From everything being reported by the habs insiders, it doesn’t sound like habs would take Michkov. That’s not what I think, it’s just what’s being put out there

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Ok even if I go back to my original definition of superstar if that makes you happy (superstar = top 10), I still don’t think Robertson is top 10.

What I’m saying that whether you take top 3, 5 or 10, he’s below all of them. Ultimately it makes no difference if you call him a superstar and I don’t, he is what he is.


From everything being reported by the habs insiders, it doesn’t sound like habs would take Michkov. That’s not what I think, it’s just what’s being put out there

There are no Habs insiders.......you will capture and domesticate a sasquatch before you ever get a glimpse of a Habs insider talking about draft strategy prior to the draft.

Seriously though, they don't exist.

Bloggers, journalists, ex players etc are not insiders.

I am not 100% sold that I want Michkov but if it finally puts an end to this yearly narrative then that gets me all the way there!


I will also chime in on the "star "vs "superstar" Royal Rumble of Subjectivity match.....imo a star is a player who is a perennial all star but is not a perennial candidate for MVP...a superstar is a perennial candidate for MVP. Generational players are the perennial favourite to actually be the MVP.

Example:

Star = Pavelski, Marchand, Backstrom, Aho, Weber
Super Star = Mckinnon, Yzerman, Sakic, Hull, Pronger
Generational = McDavid, Crosby, Lemieux, Gretzky, Orr

I know that the MVP is the Hart Trophy but MVP is more universal and I wanted to be clear in my meaning. There would need to be some grace given to Goalies and D as they don't always get the recognition that they should for a Hart, especially defencemen.

That's all for my opinion, take it or leave it lol.

 

[rahad]

Hopefully not us. We need a star at forward. Hopefully a durable one.

Just grap Michkov and run away with him.

 

[absolute garbage]

Doubtful.

If the habs did that last draft, they would've picked Dumais 1st overall.

You can't look at one pick when doing this kind of draft analysis. And of course a lot of the picks would still miss; it's just that the NHL scouting staffs miss more.

And for the record, there's a chance Dumais could become a better player than what the Habs ended up actually picking 1st overall. But I'm not sure if Dumais would've even been ranked 1st on that scoring-based draft list. Perhaps not especially if you add an adjustment based on height.

If anyone is interested in reading more about this, here's a thread: The Data-Based Drafting Thread (what players would a Potato pick?)

 

[The Last Red]

Difference between Fantilli, Carlsson and Smith is negligible in my book.

Bedard/Michkov is the clearcut top tier. Afterward it's murky for the 3 others C.

Trading down to #5 if you can't get Michkov/Bedard is what I'd do. Good thing Michkov will likely fall to #4 or 5 according to most sources.

Sounds like a hot take, but it's really not.

We are in a great spot at #5. Either Michkov's falls on our lap, either we get one of the 3 big centers.

I'd certainly not trade up for Fantilli.

I’ve never seen Carlsson play in person but I’ve seen Fantilli and Smith up close and the gulf between them is actually very big, despite Smith’s skills. If we’re not taking Michkov, I would probably try and trade down with both PHX and PHL and just draft Leonard. I don’t see Smith as a significant upgrade, if any, over Suzuki or Dach. Caufield, Slaf and Leonard would be a formidable group of top six wings.