Confirmed with Link: Canadiens Will Pick 5th (Hughes Presser in OP) NO POLITICS

[skidcells]

I love that Timmins is helping with Columbus's 3rd overall pick.

That's his favorite spot to pick the wrong guy, leaving the right players on the board for us at 5. Muahahaha.

As much as I hope they go for the typical Timmins pick (Dvorsky) I feel Jarmo steps in and tells them not to forget about the skillset too.

 

[Jaynki]

Yea no, thats not how the events unfolded. All the stuffs regarding Wright not impressing teams in the interviews came after the draft. Before the draft, Hughes said he was impressed by Wright's interview.


Hughes said he liked all 3 of Wright, Slaf, and Cooley, and that they were going to pick one of them. Slaf wasn't singled out.

They interviewed Slaf during draft day? Yes, it was postponed from a previous day due to a flight delay. The habs management didn't even bother having dinner with Slaf, whereas they had a dinner with Wright and with Cooley.

Build a team based on size and skill? Wright is 6'1 and was seen as a highly skilled player.

There is a big poker game going around the draft. We all want Hughes to speak like Grier concerning Michkov but lets be honest, even if Michkov is a no-draft in San Jose, Grier has to pump his tires.

 

[26Mats]

As much as I hope they go for the typical Timmins pick (Dvorsky) I feel Jarmo steps in and tells them not to forget about the skillset too.

Yes, I think so.

Unless Anaheim doesn't take Fantilli, I think it's between Carlsson and Smith.

Columbus were publicly very disappointed about moving back. If I were Anaheim, I'd trade Fantilli (i.e. the 2nd pick) to Columbus for the 3rd pick plus another 1st, and then take Michkov 3rd overall.

 

[McGuires Corndog]

Michkov is who I want the Habs to pick @ 5 if he's still there but I'm convinced they'll pass on him and we'll then be fed a huge pile of BS by Hughes and the scouts as to why they passed on him.

I'd rather if SJ took him @ 4, which would be disappointing, but far less disappointing than if he were still there @ 5 and the Habs just passed on him for someone who isn't likely as talented as what Michkov is. Even though Hughes said he wanted to pick the most talented and BPA when they pick and that looks like Michkov to me if there @ 5.

This is how I hope it unravels too, simply to save me the heartache.

We’ll get one of Smith/Carlsson in this scenario. I have to think it would be Smith, but I’m super high on Carlsson (have him 2nd) but there’s rumours Columbus really likes him(Smith) so who knows.

 

[Jaynki]

I might have missed something but what do you see in Michkov that you think he could be better in the NHL?
Btw why do you think almost every NHL team is going out of their way to draft a top class Centerman when they can?

Michkov has the potential to be a top 5-10 players in his prime in the league, although he is small winger.

Carlsson and Fantilli projects as 1C but i don't think they have that kind of upside that Michkov have.

But yes, big top centerman are a very hot commodity.

 

[FrankMTL]

Top 5 unlikely but if you look at the East and specifically the Atlantic. I'd say only Philly we are unequivocally ahead of.

Buffalo has their goalie now. Ottawa another year of growth and full Chychrun year. We could surpass Detroit and the changes to Tampa Boston and Toronto will be big but their cores should keep them ahead of us.

I'd be more worried about the west having a slew of horrible teams.

Here are the teams I think that will finish lower than us:

Coyotes
Blackhawks
Ducks
Sharks
Blue Jackets
Flyers

Here are the teams I think we will be around the same tier with:

Penguins (They're getting old and on the brink of rebuild)
Capitals (Ditto)
Flames (Not impressed with their team at all, but could rebound)
Blues
Canucks

I could probably add a few more in this last tier as well.

 

[SOLR]

I think the Leafs might trade Matthews or Marner, which might mean something for our draft. I tried to start this discussion before, but now more convinced than ever that it's possible.

These are all Matthews scenarios because I don't think Marner's trade makes sense for a rebuilding team like Matthews does. Historically, franchise players like Matthews, go for at least 1 prime prospect, 1 top 5 draft pick + at least 1st, plus some active players going the other way - I didn't include the active player part there because this could make a 3 team trade etc. so there are too many variables (one of the variables is that the Habs could be in there in some ways).
First, my reflex was to look at Arizona with Cooley/6th/12th - I still think it's the biggest possibility.
But Colombus and Sharks could also be in the mix for different reasons. Colombus just need a 1st C and they are rebooted; they are not your typical rebuild team, why wait 3-4 years for one of the draftees to arrive for Gaudreau/Laine. Jiricek, 3rd and Kings 1st. Sharks with a Bystedt/4th/Devils 1st. Sharks with Matthews are not a terrible team.

If the Leafs pick ahead of us, I think it's more likely we'll face the Michkov decision, as Leafs would be likely to pick centers to replace Matthews and Tavares.

Why would the Leafs do this? It's a quick fix to a lot of their issues.

Trade with Arizona
Tavares - Trade with 12th overall for a C (PLD?) - Marner
Knies - Cooley - Willy

+ 7-10m in cap space they can spend elsewhere in the lineup, and an off-ramp for Tavares cap hit via that entry-level salary used in the top 6.

Toronto picks Dvorsky/Benson with pick 6.

It makes sense for Arizona too
Keller - Matthews - Schmatlz
Crouse - Hayton - Guenther

They have tons of prospects, at all positions coming their way + a lot of draft assets in the rest of the 2023 draft.

Trade with Colombus
Toronto picks one of Carlsson/Fantilli
Tavares - Trade with 20ishth overall for a C - Marner
Knies - Carlsson/Fantilli - Willy

+ 7-10m in cap space they can spend elsewhere in the lineup, and an off-ramp for Tavares cap hit via that entry-level salary used in the top 6.

+ Jiricek replacing one of their bad D.

It makes sense for Colombus
Gaudreau - Matthews - Marchenko/Foudy
Johnson - Roslovic - Laine

They have tons of D prospects to trade Jiricek away.

I don't think we have the assets to play on Matthews unless Suz/Caufield/Guhle are on the table, it doesn't make sense for us. We don't have a prime prospect that would fit what the Leafs could need (1 C or a 1 D). Like Chicago and Anaheim, we need time over everything else.

 

[MTL Dirty Birdy]

Wouldn’t be mad with Leonard at 5 if Smith is gone.

Would you take him over Michkov? And I’m a Leonard fan

Our entire lineup will be more seasoned. No reason we'd do worst than this year.

Not to mention the injury issues last year hurting us

 

[Kaladin]

Michkov has the potential to be a top 5-10 players in his prime in the league, although he is small winger.

Carlsson and Fantilli projects as 1C but i don't think they have that kind of upside that Michkov have.

But yes, big top centerman are a very hot commodity.

Exactly and that guy wants us to trade UP from a Michkov (potential to be a top 10 player in this league and our first consistent PPG player in forever) to a Carlsson and add Slaf, another 1st and a high 2nd in order to do it lol.

We already have Dach, Suzuki and potentially PLD as C's too so his desperation to do this trade makes even less sense.

 

[Jaynki]

Exactly and that guy wants us to trade UP from a Michkov (potential to be a top 10 player in this league and our first consistent PPG player in forever) to a Carlsson and add Slaf, another 1st and a high 2nd in order to do it lol.

We already have Dach, Suzuki and potentially PLD as C's too so his desperation to do this trade makes even less sense.

It makes absolutely no sense to trade up for that price.

At best we can add our 2nd or FLA pick to move up and a prospects thats not Hutson or Mailloux.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Did you guys knew that out of all the teams in the NHL (excluding Seattle), we are the franchise with the least amount of players with a PPG season since 2000?

We have Alex Kovalev in 2008, that's it.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Every other team has at least two.

Plus, we haven't had a true superstar forward since Guy Lafleur. That's 43 years ago that he had his last great 100+ pts season. Sure, we got Naslund, Turgeon, Damphousse, Richer, etc. But no true consistent star at forward for over 4 decades!

That's why MICHKOV is absolutely crucial. This franchise has been desertic at forward. The thirst for it is a matter of life or death. We need this more than anything, and Michkov is our last chance to get one for the next few years.

Agreed entirely, Michkov is a potential generational talent imo but who knows if he ever gets there. Gotta take the chance if we have the opportunity somehow.

If we add him and another top 5 pick next year and Slaf pans out we are going to be riding high for quite some time

 

[McGuires Corndog]

I think the Leafs might trade Matthews or Marner, which might mean something for our draft. I tried to start this discussion before, but now more convinced than ever that it's possible.

These are all Matthews scenarios because I don't think Marner's trade makes sense for a rebuilding team like Matthews does. Historically, franchise players like Matthews, go for at least 1 prime prospect, 1 top 5 draft pick + at least 1st, plus some active players going the other way - I didn't include the active player part there because this could make a 3 team trade etc. so there are too many variables (one of the variables is that the Habs could be in there in some ways).
First, my reflex was to look at Arizona with Cooley/6th/12th - I still think it's the biggest possibility.
But Colombus and Sharks could also be in the mix for different reasons. Colombus just need a 1st C and they are rebooted; they are not your typical rebuild team, why wait 3-4 years for one of the draftees to arrive for Gaudreau/Laine. Jiricek, 3rd and Kings 1st. Sharks with a Bystedt/4th/Devils 1st. Sharks with Matthews are not a terrible team.

If the Leafs pick ahead of us, I think it's more likely we'll face the Michkov decision, as Leafs would be likely to pick centers to replace Matthews and Tavares.

Why would the Leafs do this? It's a quick fix to a lot of their issues.

Trade with Arizona
Tavares - Trade with 12th overall for a C (PLD?) - Marner
Knies - Cooley - Willy

+ 7-10m in cap space they can spend elsewhere in the lineup, and an off-ramp for Tavares cap hit via that entry-level salary used in the top 6.

Toronto picks Dvorsky/Benson with pick 6.

It makes sense for Arizona too
Keller - Matthews - Schmatlz
Crouse - Hayton - Guenther

They have tons of prospects, at all positions coming their way + a lot of draft assets in the rest of the 2023 draft.

Trade with Colombus
Toronto picks one of Carlsson/Fantilli
Tavares - Trade with 20ishth overall for a C - Marner
Knies - Carlsson/Fantilli - Willy

+ 7-10m in cap space they can spend elsewhere in the lineup, and an off-ramp for Tavares cap hit via that entry-level salary used in the top 6.

+ Jiricek replacing one of their bad D.

It makes sense for Colombus
Gaudreau - Matthews - Marchenko/Foudy
Johnson - Roslovic - Laine

They have tons of D prospects to trade Jiricek away.

I don't think we have the assets to play on Matthews unless Suz/Caufield/Guhle are on the table, it doesn't make sense for us. We don't have a prime prospect that would fit what the Leafs could need (1 C or a 1 D). Like Chicago and Anaheim, we need time over everything else.

Not sure the Leafs are interested in trading Matthews/Marner/Tavares for players that

1. May never be at their level
2. Best case are likely 2-3 years away, likely 3-4 years from being star players.

The way the team is currently constructed they’d almost essentially be throwing their cup window out the window.

The best thing they could do is try and target other star players that may need a change of scenery but bring a different element to the table than the player they’re trading away.

Not saying your scenario is impossible, it’s possible, but I’m not sure it keeps the Leafs as competitive as they need to be.

 

[HuGort]

I love that Timmins is helping with Columbus's 3rd overall pick.

That's his favorite spot to pick the wrong guy, leaving the right players on the board for us at 5. Muahahaha.

It's big help to us. Lol

 

[SOLR]

Not sure the Leafs are interested in trading Matthews/Marner/Tavares for players that

1. May never be at their level
2. Best case are likely 2-3 years away, likely 3-4 years from being star players.

The way the team is currently constructed they’d almost essentially be throwing their cup window out the window.

The best thing they could do is try and target other star players that may need a change of scenery but bring a different element to the table than the player they’re trading away.

Not saying your scenario is impossible, it’s possible, but I’m not sure it keeps the Leafs as competitive as they need to be.

1. "May never be at their level" what is that level? I think it's time to throw some cold water on that statement, 1 series win in 7 years. They are not at the level imagined. And Tavares is no longer at his level, so now they have a core 3.

Cooley can be at their level. Drafting at 6th gives them a plan B that could also get to a good level.

And don't forget the effect of the cap clearance here, no team needs 4 stars at forward, it's more 2-3 stars with some good depth.

2. Cooley plays next year in an exploitation role (enough to make the playoffs assuming they find that journeyman first center).

Carlsson/Fantilli also play next year in an exploitation role (enough to make the playoffs, assuming they find that journeyman first center).

That's why I think it's either Columbus or Arizona. I don't think Bystedt is too far off either, but yeah, probably 1 more year there, and this is probably what keeps the Sharks out. But maybe Willy brings Bystedt up quicker? Willy is the most important player based on playoff performance out of the 4 core guys (if you say that playoffs performers come first from this point on).

I don't think the potential for these trades rests on the quality of Matthews's return at all actually, it depends mostly if a team wants to trade a center for a middle-round pick, like we got Dach last year. If the Jets wants to play on PLD, there will be a trade. For the Jets, a 12th overall+ for a guy that wants to leave next year is great.

I think it makes the Leafs better immediately; the project of the 4 core guys failed. Tavares is declining, untradable, and no longer a center, so if they don't react now, they will become less and less competitive over time in a predictable way. They burned a lot of $, draft assets, so it's not like they have tons of prospects coming their way to make them better (maybe aside from the 2 Fins, Hirvonen and Niemela - they might have to give Hirvonen away to get PLD...)

 

[WeThreeKings]

I'd be more worried about the west having a slew of horrible teams.

Here are the teams I think that will finish lower than us:

Coyotes
Blackhawks
Ducks
Sharks
Blue Jackets
Flyers

Here are the teams I think we will be around the same tier with:

Penguins (They're getting old and on the brink of rebuild)
Capitals (Ditto)
Flames (Not impressed with their team at all, but could rebound)
Blues
Canucks

I could probably add a few more in this last tier as well.

I wouldn't be so sure on the Blue Jackets - they may have been more injured than us. Coyotes also manage to stay around us.

Being bottom 3 in our conference is still unlikely to drop out of the top 10 cause for all the bad teams in the West, as we saw this year with Arizona etc.. they play each other a lot. Someone has to get points.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

Hughes said Michkov would lose the tiebreaker against someone with the same talent.

Which is Bedard, and Bedard only. Otherwise I'm seriously concerned about our scouting moving forward.

 

[SOLR]

Hughes said Michkov would lose the tiebreaker against someone with the same talent.

Which is Bedard, and Bedard only. Otherwise I'm seriously concerned about our scouting moving forward.

I could make an argument for Carlsson, who has been growing his game a lot in the last 18 months.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

I could make an argument for Carlsson, who has been growing his game a lot in the last 18 months.

I like Carlsson a lot (T3 with Fantilli for me), but have some concerns about shot and IQ. Not that his IQ isn't good, because it certainly is, but I don't think it's quite on that next level where he'll be able to step into the upper echelon as a top 5-10 C in the league.

 

[SOLR]

I like Carlsson a lot (T3 with Fantilli for me), but have some concerns about shot and IQ. Not that his IQ isn't good, because it certainly is, but I don't think it's quite on that next level where he'll be able to step into the upper echelon as a top 5-10 C in the league.

I think his learning momentum suggests otherwise. Late bloomer.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

I think his learning momentum suggests otherwise. Late bloomer.

I'd definitely be very happy to get him if Michkov is gone, but I think his impact will be more akin to Zibanejad's (albeit as a playmaking center first and foremost) rather than a Draisaitl/Matthews kind of player, which is where I think Michkov will be (as a winger though).

Still, can't pretend the idea of running some combination of Carlsson-Dach-Suzuki down the middle with potentially Dubois in the mix doesn't excite me.

 

[Habricot]

Who could they select? They know they’re not taking BPA. The guy they pick projects to be a much inferior player. As soon as Michkov steps in the NHL, it’ll rubber stamp they didn’t get close to BPA.

The upside: it isn’t a black eye to their scouting staff. They know what they’re doing…An ancillary benefit is perhaps they believe being a team that shies away from Russians like the Flyers might give them a better chance to win the Cup. Something like that.

Actually you don't know at the time of the draft you make projection based on what you know of the prospect. If could very well endup that as an example Benson becomes the best player in this draft based on the chances he gets, how he develops and the fact he falls into an environment that nurture his success. So the question is not always as simple as this.

 

[NORiculous]

So now Axel Sandin-Pellikka is top 5 according to Button.

If his top 4 come out, still like Smith.

 

[WeThreeKings]

So now Axel Sandin-Pellikka is top 5 according to Button.

If his top 4 come out, still like Smith.

Button is the only person in the world who thinks this.

 

[BergevinBurner]

Hughes said Michkov would lose the tiebreaker against someone with the same talent.

Which is Bedard, and Bedard only. Otherwise I'm seriously concerned about our scouting moving forward.

That's what I'm afraid of. At 5th overall everyone knows there's no one remotely close to Michkov's talent level. That statement makes it seem like he's laying the foundation of his explanation/excuse of why he'll pass on him.

"Well we think Benson and Michkov both have similar ceilings, but we loved Benson's drive and motor and that's why he was our guy at 5th."

 

[McGuires Corndog]

1. "May never be at their level" what is that level? I think it's time to throw some cold water on that statement, 1 series win in 7 years. They are not at the level imagined. And Tavares is no longer at his level, so now they have a core 3.

Cooley can be at their level. Drafting at 6th gives them a plan B that could also get to a good level.

And don't forget the effect of the cap clearance here, no team needs 4 stars at forward, it's more 2-3 stars with some good depth.

2. Cooley plays next year in an exploitation role (enough to make the playoffs assuming they find that journeyman first center).

Carlsson/Fantilli also play next year in an exploitation role (enough to make the playoffs, assuming they find that journeyman first center).

That's why I think it's either Columbus or Arizona. I don't think Bystedt is too far off either, but yeah, probably 1 more year there, and this is probably what keeps the Sharks out. But maybe Willy brings Bystedt up quicker? Willy is the most important player based on playoff performance out of the 4 core guys (if you say that playoffs performers come first from this point on).

I don't think the potential for these trades rests on the quality of Matthews's return at all actually, it depends mostly if a team wants to trade a center for a middle-round pick, like we got Dach last year. If the Jets wants to play on PLD, there will be a trade. For the Jets, a 12th overall+ for a guy that wants to leave next year is great.

I think it makes the Leafs better immediately; the project of the 4 core guys failed. Tavares is declining, untradable, and no longer a center, so if they don't react now, they will become less and less competitive over time in a predictable way. They burned a lot of $, draft assets, so it's not like they have tons of prospects coming their way to make them better (maybe aside from the 2 Fins, Hirvonen and Niemela - they might have to give Hirvonen away to get PLD...)

You may be on to something.

Great post man.