I'm a nerd who actually did this out of my own curiosity
Here are all the countries ahead of Canada who are at risk/guaranteed to miss with the games remaining, based on the official rankings released that have us at #40:
UEFA:
Playoffs:
Path A: 19. Wales, 25. Ukraine, 31. Austria, 38. Scotland
Path B: 18. Sweden, 27. Poland, 32 Czech Republic, 34. Russia
Path C: 6. Italy, 8. Portugal, 37. Turkey, North Macedonia
Already eliminated:
39. Hungary
Looks like 9 (I mean North Macedonia COULD make it 10 but I doubt they make it out of Path C) UEFA teams ahead of us in the rankings will fail to qualify
CONMEBOL:
Two of 16. Colombia, 17. Uruguay, 22. Peru, 24 Chile are guaranteed to miss. Looking like 2 teams from CONMEBOL ahead of us in the rankings will fail to qualify, possibly 3 depending on intercontinental playoff but we'll assume 2 will miss.
CAF:
Depends on who wins/loses obviously but the teams here at risk are:
20. Senegal v Egypt
28. Morocco v DR Congo
29. Algeria v Cameroon
30. Tunisa v Mali
36. Nigeria v Ghana
I'm going to assume the higher seeds win their matchups. There are possibilities for upsets (AFCON Final is also Senegal v Egypt so that matchup is spicy especially as a Liverpool fan) but let's say 0 teams ahead of us in CAF.
AFC:
35. Australia is at risk here but they will likely be in the playoffs and will be playing CONMEBOL 5th place. They are the team I am assuming will miss and not the 5th place CONMEBOL which gives us 1 from AFC. Either way, the loser of the intercontinental game here will guarantee a team ahead in the rankings will drop out.
So in total we're looking at give or take 12 teams ahead of us in the rankings (as of today based on official rankings) that are guaranteed to miss. We are assured to be pot 3 if our ranking is anywhere above the 35 or 36 range I would think. I would say it's a very real possibility, probably even likely we end up in pot 3 unless I'm missing something. It mainly comes down to UEFA teams being highly ranked and quite a few of them missing. Still, there's lots of footy left to be played so all of this is speculation. Rankings are definitely going to change with AFCON still going on, the rest of the qualifiers, international friendlies etc. teams will drop and rise. For a quick comparison, the 2018 tournament had Denmark at 19 up to Iran at 34 for pot 3 and pot 4 began with Serbia at 38 to Saudi at 63.
An example draw as of today assuming the top seeds win:
Pot1: Qatar, Belgium, Brazil, France, England, Argentina, Spain, Italy
Pot 2: Denmark, Netherlands, USA, Germany, Switzerland, Mexico, Croatia, Uruguay
Pot 3: Wales, Sweden, Senegal, Iran, Peru, Serbia, Japan, Morocco
Pot 4: Algeria, Tunisia, Korea, Nigeria, Canada, Ecuador, Panama, Saudi
We'd have to leapfrog 5 teams ahead of us and with Algeria having a not so great AFCON as well as Morocco and Tunisia losing to much lower ranked teams, they'll likely drop. That will leave us right on the cusp of pot 3 if we pass them and do well enough in our own matches.