Can we beat Tampa?

[maskingagent]

the answer is Yes. Like what most have said I agree with. I'm predicting Leafs get it done in 6 games or sooner.
I think the refs this year will make the difference for the Leafs. I am predicting most of the games will be called like the regular season, so it will be free flowing shinny style hockey and not the rock 'em sock 'em style we are used to during playoffs. The high speed track meets will undoubtedly favour the Leafs. Tampa will take costly penalties and the Leafs' power play will make them pay. Tampa will go in a bit "cocky" relying on their past and by the time they wake up , they will be 2 games down in the series.

Oh and the daily discussions about the Leafs defence. Yes, they do not have a "Pronger or Hedman" like quarterback, but its good enough to get the pucks up the boards, to the forwards. They will be good enough in their own end as well. They will be told to make the adjustments necessary and will get it done.

The net will be carried by Samsonov and he knows he's the number one and its his net. I saw him play some outstanding games for Washington and he is part of the Russian renaissance of goal tenders coming from Russia of which used to be owned by the QMJHL.

I am predicting the referees will put away their whistles until maybe conference finals so the Leafs will be fine until then.

However, if the Leafs do somehow have a meltdown, and let Tampa back in the series to eventually lose again, then we know its goodbye to Shanny and the Shanaplan and Dubas and the clearing house begins.

20 or so games, I can't wait !

 

[ACC1224]

the answer is Yes. Like what most have said I agree with. I'm predicting Leafs get it done in 6 games or sooner.
I think the refs this year will make the difference for the Leafs. I am predicting most of the games will be called like the regular season, so it will be free flowing shinny style hockey and not the rock 'em sock 'em style we are used to during playoffs. The high speed track meets will undoubtedly favour the Leafs. Tampa will take costly penalties and the Leafs' power play will make them pay. Tampa will go in a bit "cocky" relying on their past and by the time they wake up , they will be 2 games down in the series.

Oh and the daily discussions about the Leafs defence. Yes, they do not have a "Pronger or Hedman" like quarterback, but its good enough to get the pucks up the boards, to the forwards. They will be good enough in their own end as well. They will be told to make the adjustments necessary and will get it done.

The net will be carried by Samsonov and he knows he's the number one and its his net. I saw him play some outstanding games for Washington and he is part of the Russian renaissance of goal tenders coming from Russia of which used to be owned by the QMJHL.

I am predicting the referees will put away their whistles until maybe conference finals so the Leafs will be fine until then.

However, if the Leafs do somehow have a meltdown, and let Tampa back in the series to eventually lose again, then we know its goodbye to Shanny and the Shanaplan and Dubas and the clearing house begins.

20 or so games, I can't wait !

Love the optimism but it looks like you're predicting two contrary things.

 

[hotpaws]

wow that's deep stuff. now tell me, which one are you hoping for?

i'm hoping we win of course , i don't get excited by losers respect like Keefe and Dubas

do you want us to win or are you with Keefe and Dubas ?

 

[LeafLoyalist]

Of course we can.

We were a phantom high stick away from winning the series in 6. The Holl interference in Game 7 was questionable also considering Tampa scored a goal just like that the game prior. We had the most lopsided 1st round refereeing of the playoffs (in terms of PP advantages by one team over the other).

This year, Toronto got better and Tampa got worse.

The biggest question mark however is our goaltending. It's been inconsistent. Some games Murray and Samsonov look like stars, other games it looks like it's their first time playing goal. To be fair, Campbell was just as bad last season but Tampa got bad goaltending in the first round also.

I expect Vasilevskiy to play better than last series, which probably means Murray/Samsonov need to give us better goaltending than Campbell's .897 last series. I would say if Murray or Samsonov can keep pace, or stay within reach of Vasilevskiy, we probably win the series as it stands right now assuming no more moves by the trade deadline, fair refereeing, and no phantom calls because we're up.

So the apparent phantom high stick to the face??? Kerfoot had no control of his stick, IN THE FACE of the other player, 200ft from his net....the only thing phantom is your recollection. The Holl interference as you state in your reference WAS CLEAR INTERFERENCE and he made it too obvious, poor discipline.

Is Toronto better? No Muzzin, no proven goalie in playoffs still
Is Tampa worse? Point missed 2.5 games, Vasi didnt start playing until G6

STOP always blaming the refs, undiscipline hockey is the cause, not bad reffing.

They're really not, like at all

- You talk about the rise of Hagel, but they also lost Palat. This is them basically replacing Palat's production, though who knows if he will be as good as Palat is in the playoffs
- Brayden Point was not injured last year, I don't know why this has become such a common thought around this board. He got hurt only during game 7, he was 100% healthy the rest of the series. Hell, he literally scored the goal to save their season in game 6
- The loss of McDonagh is a catastrophic blow to their defensive core. He's one of the most underrated defenseman of the past decade and took all the tough matchups in the playoffs, excelling in them. Now they need Hedman to step up and do so, but he's really been struggling this year (it's not talked about a lot but he's quietly been one of the worst defenseman in his own zone all year). TB needs Hedman to flip a switch or they're in trouble
- Their defensive metrics have fallen off significantly. Last year they were top 10 in xGA and now they're 15th. This matches the eye test too, they get lit up a fair amount
- The wear and tear on them has grown even more. They've made 3 straight finals which is equal to essentially an extra season of games

Like TB is elite, very elite. But they're not better than last year in any way shape or form

Yes Hagel has replaced the loss of Palat and is younger, only going to get better.
My bad on Point, but losing him for G7 should have allowed us to close out the the game, lost opportunity
Losing McDonoaugh was big but somewhat overrated, he was deteriorating as you can see this year, Cole has replaced some of that, and Perbix looks like he has helped this D core. D probably equal to last yr

Vasi wasnt rock solid until G6, and if he goes off will be tough. They just added Jeannot and he may be a difference maker in a lesser role on 3rd line. Paul has a year with the team now.

Overall they may have not gotten better, but hard to say they are worse.
They have the pedigree and experience, that may offset the wear and tear.

 

[HogTown06]

Apparently the Lightning Brass are wondering the same about the Leafs...

They just traded a 1st for a 4th liner banger...

 

[GoonieFace]

Huh?

Nylander is better than last year trending for 40 goals...positive
Marner is playing like a superstar in all aspects of the game...positive
Matthews has improved his overall 200 ft game and still on pace for 40...positive
Giordano full season with us....positive
ROR with his faceoff and playoff pedigree, we had no one like that last year...positive
Acciari is nothing like what we had last year in the bottom 6...positive
Liljegren full season and now a top 4...positive
Goaltending a lot more consistent, especially Samsonov...positive

How do you see us getting better a "reach"?

Keefe is twice the man he was last year - positive, as it will tilt the ice in our favour

 

[Suntouchable13]

We could win if Dubas shook up the core 4. I don’t think these guys have what it takes to win a playoff series. I don’t know how many 1st round exits do people here need as proof. 7? 8? I hope I am wrong, and I can’t wait for the playoffs to begin but I don’t know why we should expect any different results from these guys after 6 years.

 

[wingman75]

Can = Yes
Will = TBD

 

[Rob Brown]

So the apparent phantom high stick to the face??? Kerfoot had no control of his stick, IN THE FACE of the other player, 200ft from his net....the only thing phantom is your recollection. The Holl interference as you state in your reference WAS CLEAR INTERFERENCE and he made it too obvious, poor discipline.

 

[LeafLoyalist]

Not exactly sure where this delusion comes from, but Tampa is much worse.

They had to give away McDonagh and let Palat walk for cap reasons without backfilling adequately; their #4 thru #7 D are Ian Cole, Nick Perbix, Zach Bogosian, and Haydn Fleury; and their #2G got shredded for a converted touchdown last night.

And their star players are not getting younger or better. The Jeannot trade highlights how desperate they were to try to pull off an impact move, when in actual fact they just pushed all their chips in on a 3rd liner with 4th line production when their 4 thru 7 D are begging for an upgrade.

If Vasi goes down or isn't all world, the Bolts will be toast.

Mcdonaugh had one last run in him, replaced with Cole who is just as capable
Hagel was brought in to replace Palat and has adjusted
They had Foote Bogosian & Rutta D5-7, not much change tbh this year, Perbix/Bogosian/Fleury

Vasi was off last year and couldnt get it done, does Vasi make same mistake? If Samsonov goes down, and now Murray is in, what does that mean?

 

[LeafLoyalist]

LOL...do you really believe yourself? Hi stick was up in his face, if you want to make it reviewable then different story, but 9/10 that is called HIGH STICK, regular season or playoffs. A player needs to control his stick, and he put himself in a situation to be called.....there were so many that were just like that both ways, always say don't put your stick in a position to give the ref the chance to make a call....it's called discipline!!! But keep convincing yourself that the refs are the reason the Leafs keep losing.

 

[Its not your fault]

How

Baring some insane misfortune for the Bruins we will once again be playing Tampa in round one.

Can this current team beat them in four of seven?
If not, what piece needs to be added?
What needs to be done?

Talent wise, I'm not sure we've seen a Leafs team this good in a long, long time however there are two glaring holes I see needing to be fixed.

1. Compete. I don't mean that this team is lazy, they aren't. But they do seem to lack that killer instinct, that extra gear, the willingness to go that extra, much needed mile to get the job done. O'Reilly has that quality. As do Acciari and Gio. I've seen it in spurts from Matthews, Rielly, Nylander, Tavares and Marner but we need it consistently.

2. Respect. This team is not respected by other teams or the NHL. They get cheaped out nightly and the refs turn a blind eye. We seem to be the 'example' every time. And it's blatantly clear that come playoffs the rules seem to go right out the window.... Unless we're involved.
How does the team address this before the playoffs? How can you possibly win a war of attrition while being expected to follow the rule of law yourselves?

How about now?

 

[keonsbitterness]

Keefe is twice the man he was last year - positive, as it will tilt the ice in our favour

He is looking huskier.

 

[LeafLoyalist]

Huh?

Nylander is better than last year trending for 40 goals...positive
Marner is playing like a superstar in all aspects of the game...positive
Matthews has improved his overall 200 ft game and still on pace for 40...positive
Giordano full season with us....positive
ROR with his faceoff and playoff pedigree, we had no one like that last year...positive
Acciari is nothing like what we had last year in the bottom 6...positive
Liljegren full season and now a top 4...positive
Goaltending a lot more consistent, especially Samsonov...positive

How do you see us getting better a "reach"?

All these positives in the REGULAR SEASON, yet to be proven in the playoffs....
Nylander has yet to be impactful in the playoffs, in ALL aspects of his game
Marner is a superstar in the regular season, playoffs have yet to be proven
Mathews not as effective as last year, so not sure how he is a positive
Giordano is only getting older and has picked up huge mins this year, he may taper off significantly
ROR will help faceoffs but i dont see the same ROR we all hope to see
Acciari will turn into a negative come playoffs 0 pts in last 3 playoffs, -7 and 0 PIM
Liljegren has played in the top 4 for the regular season yet to prove an impact in playoffs
Goaltending was considered more consistent last year and yet a failure, what makes Samsonov a sure improvement?

You're synopsis is all based on a narrative of the regular season and an unproven goalie.

 

[robertmac43]

Yes we can beat Tampa, so close last year and we come into this series with a better team imo. Just need to stay healthy between now and then.

 

[Subway Schenn]

We will!

 

[ACC1224]

It certainly looks better now, provided the Leafs can overcome the loss of Joey 'Don't Call Me Joe' Anderson.

 

[Steven1562]

It's possible. We have to play with the same energy we did last year though. We were leading game 6 going into the 3rd. Had chances in the overtime (Kerfoot finish a damn breakaway) then game 7 was a close 2-1 loss with a goal taken away. We played them as close as possible and our team got better this year. They have also looked weaker defensively this year. Biggest X Factor though is Vasi because he can go god mode and cover up a ton of mistakes/steal a series. I still see it being a 7 game series that could go either way.

 

[BallardEra]

Comes down to goaltending.

 

[TakeTheBody]

McCabe helps. But the Bolts just improved also. I think the Leafs have better forwards. The Bolts having a true number one defenseman probably have a better blue line. And goalie, not even the most ridiculous Leaf fan can say we have a goalie advantage. Can the Leafs beat the Bolts? Sure, but the Atlantic is tougher than whale bone. All that being said. Dubas is all in. GO LEAFS GO!!!!!!

 

[Divine]

LOL...do you really believe yourself? Hi stick was up in his face, if you want to make it reviewable then different story, but 9/10 that is called HIGH STICK, regular season or playoffs. A player needs to control his stick, and he put himself in a situation to be called.....there were so many that were just like that both ways, always say don't put your stick in a position to give the ref the chance to make a call....it's called discipline!!! But keep convincing yourself that the refs are the reason the Leafs keep losing.

It’s not high sticking if the stick doesn’t hit their face. That’s like saying it’s a goal when it’s close to being in.

When players play the puck with a high stick, is it a high sticking penalty?

It’s not a penalty to have your stick in the air. Only to hit someone in the face with it in the air, which did not happen.

Hence, phantom high sticking. Let me know if you need help explaining any more rules to you. I’m always here to help people new to the game.

Oh, yeah, you’re right there was a penalty on the play. It’s called embellishment. Do I need to explain that one to you too or have you heard of it before?

 

[thusk]

So the apparent phantom high stick to the face??? Kerfoot had no control of his stick, IN THE FACE of the other player, 200ft from his net....the only thing phantom is your recollection. The Holl interference as you state in your reference WAS CLEAR INTERFERENCE and he made it too obvious, poor discipline.

Is Toronto better? No Muzzin, no proven goalie in playoffs still
Is Tampa worse? Point missed 2.5 games, Vasi didnt start playing until G6

STOP always blaming the refs, undiscipline hockey is the cause, not bad reffing.


Yes Hagel has replaced the loss of Palat and is younger, only going to get better.
My bad on Point, but losing him for G7 should have allowed us to close out the the game, lost opportunity
Losing McDonoaugh was big but somewhat overrated, he was deteriorating as you can see this year, Cole has replaced some of that, and Perbix looks like he has helped this D core. D probably equal to last yr

Vasi wasnt rock solid until G6, and if he goes off will be tough. They just added Jeannot and he may be a difference maker in a lesser role on 3rd line. Paul has a year with the team now.

Overall they may have not gotten better, but hard to say they are worse.
They have the pedigree and experience, that may offset the wear and tear.

Yeah we can see how much impact mcdonaugh had defensivly... since mcdonaugh joined from ranger, never tampa was outside of team best nhl team in term of goal against and expected goal against. The last time tampa was out of top 10 any one of those category was the year before he joined tampa.... and now this season are out of top 10 in both category.

 

[weems]

We can certainly beat TB.

I think it's unfair for anyone to put full blame on our goaltending when our offense/ PP have gone ice cold for stretch's and in big games. In saying that our goaltending certainly hasn't been great and a few more timely saves here or there could have been the difference.

In long playoff runs, you need your goalie to come up big with timely saves from point blank spots.

Right now Samsonov ranks #1 in the league in high danger unblocked save % of goalies with 30+starts

1. Samsonov 0.793
2. Sorokin 0.790
3. Fleury 0.778

This is an area that our goalies the past few regular seasons haven't been elite in and could possibly be something that helps us in the big moments when the opposing team gets a chance in close and Samsonov is hard to beat there.

 

[34]

Goaltending….


Answer is NO.

 

[Morbo]

i'm hoping we win of course , i don't get excited by losers respect like Keefe and Dubas

okay, so you're saying you're on board with preferring a Dubas extension.

duly noted.

I critique or praise Dubas as required. your characterizations of those you disagree with as some kind of blind Dubas lovers is your problem and nobody else's.