Can we beat Tampa?

[LeafLoyalist]

Of course we can.

We were a phantom high stick away from winning the series in 6. The Holl interference in Game 7 was questionable also considering Tampa scored a goal just like that the game prior. We had the most lopsided 1st round refereeing of the playoffs (in terms of PP advantages by one team over the other).

This year, Toronto got better and Tampa got worse.

The biggest question mark however is our goaltending. It's been inconsistent. Some games Murray and Samsonov look like stars, other games it looks like it's their first time playing goal. To be fair, Campbell was just as bad last season but Tampa got bad goaltending in the first round also.

I expect Vasilevskiy to play better than last series, which probably means Murray/Samsonov need to give us better goaltending than Campbell's .897 last series. I would say if Murray or Samsonov can keep pace, or stay within reach of Vasilevskiy, we probably win the series as it stands right now assuming no more moves by the trade deadline, fair refereeing, and no phantom calls because we're up.

This is all wishful thinking.... Tampa is way better this year than last year.

Last year Vasilevskiy did not wake up until Game 6 3rd period - positive
Hagel has had a year with Tampa and is more impactful than last year - positive
Nick Paul has had a year with the club and will be better - positive
Brayden Point is healthy (he missed G5/6/7 last year) - positive
They lost McDonaugh but was replaced with Ian Cole - negative

They have added Jeannot who will reinforce their 3rd line which will give them 2 shutdown lines - positive

To say Toronto got better is a reach, they didn't get worse but
They lost Muzzin which is HUGE negative
They don't have a proven goalie in the playoffs - negative
ROR helps but i think the impact he will bring is underrated- positive

 

[Morbo]

party like a rock star just like you did after we lost last year but got crazy respect while shaking hands

...what?

 

[Notsince67]

Sure, let's see the math that demonstrates why a 4 game sample where you've compared a player's individual shot contributions to the sum of all of his opponents is meaningful

I can't help you understand why a weak 3rd line with a player shooting 2 in 4 games while allowing far more shots requires some scrutiny. Lets just treat him like a franchise player and hope that Tampa doesn't target our lower lines yet again this year. No need to improve there

To quote one of my favourite movies of all time Major League Jake Taylor " well I guess there is only one thing left to do win the whole F'n Thing!"

 

[hotpaws]

...what?

what do you mean ''what''

you just took a shot at me for being unhappy over the Leafs playoff failure yet your now saying you aren't happy being constantly knocked out of the first rd either

 

[leafsfan5]

This is all wishful thinking.... Tampa is way better this year than last year.

Last year Vasilevskiy did not wake up until Game 6 3rd period - positive
Hagel has had a year with Tampa and is more impactful than last year - positive
Nick Paul has had a year with the club and will be better - positive
Brayden Point is healthy (he missed G5/6/7 last year) - positive
They lost McDonaugh but was replaced with Ian Cole - negative

They have added Jeannot who will reinforce their 3rd line which will give them 2 shutdown lines - positive

To say Toronto got better is a reach, they didn't get worse but
They lost Muzzin which is HUGE negative
They don't have a proven goalie in the playoffs - negative
ROR helps but i think the impact he will bring is underrated- positive

They're really not, like at all

- You talk about the rise of Hagel, but they also lost Palat. This is them basically replacing Palat's production, though who knows if he will be as good as Palat is in the playoffs
- Brayden Point was not injured last year, I don't know why this has become such a common thought around this board. He got hurt only during game 7, he was 100% healthy the rest of the series. Hell, he literally scored the goal to save their season in game 6
- The loss of McDonagh is a catastrophic blow to their defensive core. He's one of the most underrated defenseman of the past decade and took all the tough matchups in the playoffs, excelling in them. Now they need Hedman to step up and do so, but he's really been struggling this year (it's not talked about a lot but he's quietly been one of the worst defenseman in his own zone all year). TB needs Hedman to flip a switch or they're in trouble
- Their defensive metrics have fallen off significantly. Last year they were top 10 in xGA and now they're 15th. This matches the eye test too, they get lit up a fair amount
- The wear and tear on them has grown even more. They've made 3 straight finals which is equal to essentially an extra season of games

Like TB is elite, very elite. But they're not better than last year in any way shape or form

 

[kb]

This is all wishful thinking.... Tampa is way better this year than last year.

Last year Vasilevskiy did not wake up until Game 6 3rd period - positive
Hagel has had a year with Tampa and is more impactful than last year - positive
Nick Paul has had a year with the club and will be better - positive
Brayden Point is healthy (he missed G5/6/7 last year) - positive
They lost McDonaugh but was replaced with Ian Cole - negative

They have added Jeannot who will reinforce their 3rd line which will give them 2 shutdown lines - positive

To say Toronto got better is a reach, they didn't get worse but
They lost Muzzin which is HUGE negative
They don't have a proven goalie in the playoffs - negative
ROR helps but i think the impact he will bring is underrated- positive

Not exactly sure where this delusion comes from, but Tampa is much worse.

They had to give away McDonagh and let Palat walk for cap reasons without backfilling adequately; their #4 thru #7 D are Ian Cole, Nick Perbix, Zach Bogosian, and Haydn Fleury; and their #2G got shredded for a converted touchdown last night.

And their star players are not getting younger or better. The Jeannot trade highlights how desperate they were to try to pull off an impact move, when in actual fact they just pushed all their chips in on a 3rd liner with 4th line production when their 4 thru 7 D are begging for an upgrade.

If Vasi goes down or isn't all world, the Bolts will be toast.

 

[Notsince67]

This is all wishful thinking.... Tampa is way better this year than last year.

Last year Vasilevskiy did not wake up until Game 6 3rd period - positive
Hagel has had a year with Tampa and is more impactful than last year - positive
Nick Paul has had a year with the club and will be better - positive
Brayden Point is healthy (he missed G5/6/7 last year) - positive
They lost McDonaugh but was replaced with Ian Cole - negative

They have added Jeannot who will reinforce their 3rd line which will give them 2 shutdown lines - positive

To say Toronto got better is a reach, they didn't get worse but
They lost Muzzin which is HUGE negative
They don't have a proven goalie in the playoffs - negative
ROR helps but i think the impact he will bring is underrated- positive

They lost Palat

 

[Morbo]

what do you mean ''what''

you just took a shot at me for being unhappy over the Leafs playoff failure yet your now saying you aren't happy being constantly knocked out of the first rd either

what do I mean? I mean that what you said didn't happen. what is hard to understand there exactly?

stop trying to portray people you don't agree with as these exaggerated caricatures. if not outright lying. nobody partied after losing in the first round. but I think you know that already.

 

[The Podium]

From a contract perspective kerfoot is awful but he is more versatile and a better player. I am no fan of Holl. That said, they are both more difficult to replace adequately and certainly not with the depth the team has current access to. Sure if you can remove both for a significant holl upgrade, I would be a fan of that. I just don't know who that would be.

Kerfoot is not a better player… worse defensively and offensively with more minutes and better lines mates.

Again Engvall never looks to be engaged despite being a very effective player so people just assume he’s bad. Kerfoot always looks engaged but isn’t really effective at anything.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Note that Tampa knows how to win in the playoffs; in the last 3 years they have 3 SCF appearances with 2 cup wins. They core players also know how to play "dirty". Tampa's D took a hit with McDonagh traded so that is an area to exploit a bit.
I can bet Tampa will play far more dirtier this time around compared to last season.


Also, it doesn't matter who or what you add if the team as a whole does not perform. Unlike the regular season what you need in the playoffs is:

1. Will before skill. no amount of skill will ever win over "will" in the playoffs. You want to play like you are there to win. Period! Fancy bs in the playoffs ain't gonna work
2. In the playoffs you cannot win by playing perimeter hockey; you have to go to the net; take the abuse and stand in front of the net take away the eyes of the goalies
3. You have to finish your checks, playing pansy hockey isn't gonna work. You have to be able to take the hit to make the play too.
4. You have to go to the corners, win board battles and win 50-50 pucks -> no amount of skill will ever compensate for lack hardwork, persistence, and the mindset to go and say "that puck is mine; you are not going to have it"
5. Special teams: You have to make your special teams work. Your PK has to be twice as good as your PP. You cannot surrender goals on PK and you should not suck momentum out of your game on PP
6. Your defense should be able to lay body, clear crease so goalie can see the puck and make life of the opposition forwards hell
7. You have to make every shift count; you cannot be lazy even for 1 second
8. Be aware that some interference/hooking/holding/slashing calls are not going to be called in the game so don't stand around looking at the ref when there is an infraction against you like a jackass -> keep moving your feet. The moment you are looking at the ref you are giving opposition anywhere from 3 to 5 second advantage to make play and that is enough for them to cause some damage
9. When there is a shot take it ->
   1. if the shot is clean then look to score;
   2. if shot is not clean then look to get rebounds
      1. here you will need players to crash the net to look for rebounds not playing softass perimeter bullshit hockey
10. Manage the puck!!!
    1. Treat the puck like the most prized thing you own; don't be lazy/fancy with it.
    2. Every puck movement should have a purpose; it should not be thrown away for a hail mary
11. Once your shift is done, it is about the next shift -> don't waste your time/energy thinking about the previous shift
    1. that time has passed; it ain't coming back
12. Finally!!! -> mindset, mindset, mindset
    1. don't freakin CHOKE. Have a mindset that you are there to play the best hockey you have ever played.
    2. Play every game like it is Game 7

Bottom Line: In the playoffs there is no time and space; and with that in mind you have to accomplish the points I mentioned above. On top of that regardless of how the ref is calling the game you gotta go out there and compete.

The core players have to do that, if not, doesn't matter what you add to this team they will not have much success in the playoffs.

Leafs weak link is their defense -> d-men need to up their game in the playoffs.

Rielly and Matthews have had underwhelming season thus far they will have to raise their game.

Keefe has been outcoached in every series in the playoffs; he has to be better! he should not drink any 'koolaid'; he has been humbled three times in spectacular fashion. Time for Keefe to wise up and be focused espcially learning how to coach "on the fly"

Great post, PL! 100% on point.

 

[AvroArrow]

This is all wishful thinking.... Tampa is way better this year than last year.

Last year Vasilevskiy did not wake up until Game 6 3rd period - positive
Hagel has had a year with Tampa and is more impactful than last year - positive
Nick Paul has had a year with the club and will be better - positive
Brayden Point is healthy (he missed G5/6/7 last year) - positive
They lost McDonaugh but was replaced with Ian Cole - negative

They have added Jeannot who will reinforce their 3rd line which will give them 2 shutdown lines - positive

To say Toronto got better is a reach, they didn't get worse but
They lost Muzzin which is HUGE negative
They don't have a proven goalie in the playoffs - negative
ROR helps but i think the impact he will bring is underrated- positive

Disagree

Hedman looks a lot slower, the 3 long seasons Tampa has had is taking a toll on them. He's still a stud but he looks much slower than last year.

McDonagh is gone. He was their 2nd pair anchor and he and Hedman were sheltering Sergachev/Foote. Obviously Foote is gone now, but defensively Sergachev is as bad as Jake Gardiner/Tyson Barrie. They were badly exploited in last years playoffs, and Cooper made the adjustment to throw Sergachev on Hedmans side permanantly, which was a brilliant adjustment by him. Now with McDonagh gone and the ridiculous contract they gave Sergachev, the 2nd pair anchor duty is on him. That's a massive L for Tampa, and with our upgraded top 6 I am pretty confident in saying he will be exploited once again.

Hagel and Paul, I agree. They've had more time to play with Tampa and are better off because of it.

Brayden Point played most of last years series, I only recall him missing 1 game ?

Jeannot will make them a harder team to play against but he's a bottom 6 guy.


For the Leafs

Addition of ROR is huge. This is a Selke/Cup/Conn Smythe winner with a proven track record. It gives up an absolutely stacked top 6, better PP, better PK and better depth if we wanna run 3 lines

Losing Muzzin is a blow, but we'll have Lily in the playoffs now. One of the biggest reasons we lost was Keefe's choice to bench Lily in favor of Holl. He's stepped his game up so much and is a legit top 4 D, I think we are better defensively this year than we were last year

Nylander has elevated himself into legitimate superstar territory. He's on the same level as Marner now, that is a massive upgrade for us

Campbell is gone. He was fine last year and did his job, but Sammy/Murray are unquestionably an upgrade. Murray also has 2 Stanley cups, not sure how you can say he isn't a proven goalie in the playoffs.

Addition of Acciari also makes us a much deeper team at C, and much more difficult to play against. We talk about Paul/Jeannot, Acciari has been a solid bottom 6 player since coming here.

Kerfoot isn't in the top 6, and stone hands Mikheyev is gone. Both of these guys had some huge scoring opportunities and choked last year.

Also McMann might be joining us in the playoffs, he's been REALLY good in both the AHL and when he was called up.

Whistles can't be as dog shit as they were last year, so that's a bonus as well.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

This is all wishful thinking.... Tampa is way better this year than last year.

Last year Vasilevskiy did not wake up until Game 6 3rd period - positive
Hagel has had a year with Tampa and is more impactful than last year - positive
Nick Paul has had a year with the club and will be better - positive
Brayden Point is healthy (he missed G5/6/7 last year) - positive
They lost McDonaugh but was replaced with Ian Cole - negative

They have added Jeannot who will reinforce their 3rd line which will give them 2 shutdown lines - positive

To say Toronto got better is a reach, they didn't get worse but
They lost Muzzin which is HUGE negative
They don't have a proven goalie in the playoffs - negative
ROR helps but i think the impact he will bring is underrated- positive

Huh?

Nylander is better than last year trending for 40 goals...positive
Marner is playing like a superstar in all aspects of the game...positive
Matthews has improved his overall 200 ft game and still on pace for 40...positive
Giordano full season with us....positive
ROR with his faceoff and playoff pedigree, we had no one like that last year...positive
Acciari is nothing like what we had last year in the bottom 6...positive
Liljegren full season and now a top 4...positive
Goaltending a lot more consistent, especially Samsonov...positive

How do you see us getting better a "reach"?

 

[Dekes For Days]

So far, last year's playoff roster to this year's projected playoff rosters...
Toronto replaced Muzzin, Mikyehev, Kase, Blackwell, Lyubushkin, Spezza, and Campbell with O'Rielly, Liljegren, Jarnkrok, Sandin, Acciari, ZAR/Knies, and Samsonov.
Tampa replaced McDonagh, Palat, and Foote with Cole, Jeannot, and Perbix.

 

[hotpaws]

what do I mean? I mean that what you said didn't happen. what is hard to understand there exactly?

stop trying to portray people you don't agree with as these exaggerated caricatures. if not outright lying. nobody partied after losing in the first round. but I think you know that already.

you entered into a discussion i was having with another poster to take a shot at me and now your playing the victim ,

this is what's probably has the greatest probability of happening

go deep in the playoffs - Dubas gets extended
quick exist - Dubas is walked to the curb

and it won't matter how many people love or hate the job he's done in his 5 yrs as GM

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Judging by what TB paid for basically a third liner, I sense a bit of panic. Dubas should counter by targeting Lawson Crouse out of Zona.

The way the contenders in the East are going all in I suggest the Leafs target William Muny out of Kansas...

 

[Notsince67]

Kerfoot is not a better player… worse defensively and offensively with more minutes and better lines mates.

Again Engvall never looks to be engaged despite being a very effective player so people just assume he’s bad. Kerfoot always looks engaged but isn’t really effective at anything.

Not sure how one can be effective while appearing not to be engaged.
As for the defensive comment...there are no number that support this premise. It isn't even close.
Offensively, he has also been advantaged in seeing relatively more sheltered minutes when Kerfoot played on the second line.

 

[JSn0w93]

Yes we can beat Tampa. We brought them to deaths doorstep last year, they survived us. Their D has taken a step back and their aging core is one year older.

 

[All Mod Cons]

I've heard how the Leafs are the better team going into said playoff matchup for 4 years now.

 

[Notsince67]

The way the contenders in the East are going all in I suggest the Leafs target William Muny out of Kansas...

You will only need him if the leafs meet the oilers in the finals to "kill the women and children".

 

[Dayjobdave]

100%, can't wait.

Hard to see it not going 6/7 and no doubt it will come down to Goaltending.

Probably....and maybe a call or two.

This season is like watching Rumble Fish. We know there's a brawl coming, and we know against who, and we know when. The anticipation is very real.

 

[ACC1224]

I wonder what the "Can we beat Toronto?" thread on the Tampa board looks like?

 

[Notsince67]

I wonder what the "Can we beat Toronto?" thread on the Tampa board looks like?

"Can we beat the Laffs?"

 

[57 Years No Cup]

naw an excuse is blaming the

-refs
-media
-fans
-goaltending
-Bettman
-Klingons
-full moon
-cancelled Rihanna concert

like you do after every first rd exist

The stats crew doesn't do reality. They only do expectedreality/60.

 

[Morbo]

this is what's probably has the greatest probability of happening

go deep in the playoffs - Dubas gets extended
quick exist - Dubas is walked to the curb

and it won't matter how many people love or hate the job he's done in his 5 yrs as GM

wow that's deep stuff. now tell me, which one are you hoping for?

 

[ToneDog]

I wonder what the "Can we beat Toronto?" thread on the Tampa board looks like?

They do not need a thread. Everybody knows they think they can beat the Leafs. We both need a "Can we beat Boston" thread.