Can Connor McDavid break up the "big 4"?

[authentic]

Pure trophy case isn't the best way to rank players. Especially when one had a prime alongside Gretzky and consistently missed time.

The biggest knocks on McDavid re Lemieux are that Lemieux at his best was simply a better hockey player. We can twist it any way we want. But McDavid now isn't as good as Lemieux from 1987 Canada Cup until 1993 playoffs.

I'd also add that Howe 1951-1954 wasn't as good as Lemieux 87-93. But we pretty consistently rank him ahead.

So McDavid does have a path forward, just not an easy one.

I would narrow that slightly to 1988-93. 1987 Canada Cup Lemieux and 1987-88 Lemieux did not provide anything more in comparison to his peers than McDavid does to the NHL today.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Pure trophy case isn't the best way to rank players. Especially when one had a prime alongside Gretzky and consistently missed time.

The biggest knocks on McDavid re Lemieux are that Lemieux at his best was simply a better hockey player. We can twist it any way we want. But McDavid now isn't as good as Lemieux from 1987 Canada Cup until 1993 playoffs.

I'd also add that Howe 1951-1954 wasn't as good as Lemieux 87-93. But we pretty consistently rank him ahead.

So McDavid does have a path forward, just not an easy one.

In 4 seasons Howe won 4 scoring titles, 2 Hart trophies and 2 Cups.

I'd say that's as good as Mario on the face of it. But we also know Howe was simply the better player.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

In 4 seasons Howe won 4 scoring titles, 2 Hart trophies and 2 Cups.

I'd say that's as good as Mario on the face of it. But we also know Howe was simply the better player.

Plus at least 1 Smythe if it existed at the time and in 1953 he broke the single season scoring record.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

While you have a point, I would expect most top line level players of having a higher shooting percentage than a volume shooter. Of the 30 goal scorers this season, OV sits at 24th in shooting percentage. And this is OV's 4th highest shooting percentage year of his career.

During the span of Oates' career (1986 to 2004), he had a higher shooting percentage than Pavel Bure, Joe Sakic, Mike Modano, Sergei Fedorov, Dale Hawerchuk, Theo Fleury, Paul Kariya, Brendan Shanahan, and some other big names.

But that's not unexpected. Aside from a couple of brief stretches, Oates would look to pass whenever possible. He wouldn't shoot until it was clearly the best option. He was a brilliant passer, of course, but I'm sure this made it easier to defend against him. (One of my theories is "balanced" players generally do better in the playoffs than ones who strongly prefer to shoot or pass, because it's easier to contain a player who's more predictable).

It's probably accurate to say that Oates took higher-quality shots than, say, Sakic, because Sakic was far more willing to shoot the puck, even if the opportunity wasn't as good. That's why it's usually not very informative to look at shot volume or shooting percentage in isolation.

 

[jigglysquishy]

In 4 seasons Howe won 4 scoring titles, 2 Hart trophies and 2 Cups.

I'd say that's as good as Mario on the face of it. But we also know Howe was simply the better player.

I don't have an issue saying Lemieux peaked higher than Howe. Like 1989 Lemieux or 1993 Lemieux or 1992 playoffs Lemieux reaching a level Howe never did.

It's just that Howe has (imo) the 4th highest peak ever, sustained it over 4 full seasons (and playoffs), and has an unrivaled prime that extended 16 seasons outside his peak. I unquestionably rank Howe ahead, but it's not because his 1953 season is better than Lemieux's 1989 or 1993.

Peak on peak isn't a huge gap, but yes I would take peak Lemieux over peak Howe.

 

[BraveCanadian]

I don't have an issue saying Lemieux peaked higher than Howe. Like 1989 Lemieux or 1993 Lemieux or 1992 playoffs Lemieux reaching a level Howe never did.

It's just that Howe has (imo) the 4th highest peak ever, sustained it over 4 full seasons (and playoffs), and has an unrivaled prime that extended 16 seasons outside his peak. I unquestionably rank Howe ahead, but it's not because his 1953 season is better than Lemieux's 1989 or 1993.

Peak on peak isn't a huge gap, but yes I would take peak Lemieux over peak Howe.

The other thing that is problematic about these comparisons is that Howe is a much better rounded player. People insist on comparing them based on offense alone.. and if its close, then Howe wins the comparison easily.

 

[bobholly39]

Re: sample sizes

I think Crosby 2010-11 is a great example of this. His season is broken into 3 chunks, with the 50 points in 25 games being the standout centre piece

Part 1
13 GP 6 G 9 A 15 P 11 EVP +0 11.1% shooting
Tied for 5th in points, 13th in PPG

Part 2
25 GP 26 G 24 A 50 P 34 EVP +21 26.5% shooting
Closest was St. Louis with 35 points in 25 games

Part 3
3 GP 0 G 1 A 1 P -1

He then missed the better part of 1.5 years

Is he the 95 point player of his first 13 games? Is he the 85 goal 164 point player of his next 25 games? Is the 27 point player of his next weird 1.5/1 game stretch?

Crosby likely wasn't hitting 130 points or 60 goals. He absolutely was not hitting 85 goals or 160 points. He also wasn't going to settle into being just a 35 goal 95 point player.

Similairish story last year where McDavid has a sub PPG 18 game stretch mid season sandwiched between two 135-140 point stretches.

Crosby had a stronger 2nd half of season in both 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 than he did first half.
It's very possible he would have also done better in the 2nd half of 2010-2011, than in the first half. Meaning - not only is 130 points/60 goals a possibility, he might also have done slightly better than that.

In contrast, he was better in the first half of 2006-2007 season, and 2013-2014 season.

Obviously - it's just speculation at this point, and we'll never know.

 

[BraveCanadian]

I agree that Jagr gets a bit of flack for his playoff resume and wrongly so but even without Jagr (ie replacement level player) the Pens probably win the SC in 92.

the No Jagr=no cup in 92 just doesn't pass the smell test.

I don’t care about the smell test, I saw it happen - Jagr and Francis took over when Lemieux was out and were game breakers.

If I recall correctly Francis won game 4 in OT and Jagr scored the game winning goals in game 5 and 6 to eliminate the Rangers.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Jagr scored the game winning goal in the 1992 series against Washington in Game 7 (they later added an empty netter)

so yeah, I don't think you can say a rando minor league player in his spot would have scored and they for sure make it out of that series

 

[Michael Farkas]

Jagr was an impact player by the 92 playoffs. I was just watching game 1 vs NYR earlier this week, in fact...

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Lemieux outscored prime Gretzky by 31 points in 2 less games played. Well mcdavid has 27 more than drai. Bit of a difference.

 

[bobholly39]

One year later - has McDavid's performance in the last calendar year, regular season + playoffs - changed any more minds?

I'm starting to think he is headed for that "big 5" territory - where he's not only unanimously #5 against the usual field of candidates - but also has a case to slot above at least 1 of the big 4 players.

"Special things" on his resume worthy of big 4 comcersation now include:

1. 2021 season
2. 2022 playoffs
3. 2023 season
4. 2024 playoffs
4a. 2024 finals specifically (capping it off with a big game 7/win would be cherry on top)

Outside of those - he's obviously going to end up with a ton of rosses, harts, lindsays in his career. Probaly wont pass Gretzky in any of those - but good chance he could finish #2 above Howe/Lemieux in all of those.

Still over half his career to play out - but I think McDavid will break up the "big 4" and re-shape it into a "big 5".

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

If the Oilers finish the reverse sweep then he will add a significant accomplishment to his already stacked resume. It's not hyperbole to say this run from him is equal to Gretzky/Mario

Cup
Smythe (all but a given at this point)
single season playoff assist record
42 points and counting with a legit chance at 2nd ever (currently Mario at 44)

Though I dont think he breaks up the Big 4, instead he most likely makes it a Big 5

 

[Staniowski]

One year later - has McDavid's performance in the last calendar year, regular season + playoffs - changed any more minds?

I'm starting to think he is headed for that "big 5" territory - where he's not only unanimously #5 against the usual field of candidates - but also has a case to slot above at least 1 of the big 4 players.

"Special things" on his resume worthy of big 4 comcersation now include:

1. 2021 season
2. 2022 playoffs
3. 2023 season
4. 2024 playoffs
4a. 2024 finals specifically (capping it off with a big game 7/win would be cherry on top)

Outside of those - he's obviously going to end up with a ton of rosses, harts, lindsays in his career. Probaly wont pass Gretzky in any of those - but good chance he could finish #2 above Howe/Lemieux in all of those.

Still over half his career to play out - but I think McDavid will break up the "big 4" and re-shape it into a "big 5".

It has already happened (and it had already happened a year ago).

The consensus all-time rankings, currently, would almost certainly be:

1) Gretzky
2) Lemieux
3) Orr
4) McDavid
5) Howe
6) Crosby

I suspect Crosby will eventually surpass Howe for #5.

There remains many people who don't believe McDavid has surpassed Howe (in the eyes of most people), but there's no doubt that its happened, and the gap will continue to grow; it's like when Gretzky lapped everybody else a couple decades ago, it's just getting started and there's no stopping it. There are already many hockey observers who think McDavid is the best player ever; try finding people, now, who think Howe is. They're extremely small in numbers.

What's going to be the most interesting thing, is where McDavid ends up vis-a-vis Orr, Lemieux, and Gretzky. I think each of the three are vulnerable. If McDavid remains the overwhelming choice for best player in the world for many more years (i.e. something Gretzky didn't do), McDavid has the potential to end up #1, which I never thought would possibly happen.

 

[jigglysquishy]

It has already happened (and it had already happened a year ago).

The consensus all-time rankings, currently, would almost certainly be:

1) Gretzky
2) Lemieux
3) Orr
4) McDavid
5) Howe
6) Crosby.

I don't know why you keep claiming this with zero evidence.

There is absolutely no consensus and you can't claim your opinion as fact.

 

[Overrated]

I don't know why you keep claiming this with zero evidence.

There is absolutely no consensus and you can't claim your opinion as fact.

I could see that ranking being the most common among Canadian casual fans.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Can't we just wait until he starts to slide (if it happens)...? How many times are we going to get burned by evaluating a player historically while he's still in his athletic prime? Or still playing in general?

He's on a great pace, no question. But Orr, Lemieux, and still, Crosby, get knocked for not playing enough games and all that...McDavid has played less than all of them...

 

[BraveCanadian]

I could see that ranking being the most common among Canadian casual fans.

It’s true that causal fans do over rate Lemieux in the top 4 all the time.

Unless you highly value only offense or completely disregard earlier eras (because Phil Kessel is peak human form or whatever), Lemieux’s case against Howe is a tough one.

 

[MadLuke]

If McDavid remains the overwhelming choice for best player in the world for many more years (i.e. something Gretzky didn't do),

8 Harts in a row his a good stretch for Gretzky in that regard. But maybe in modern league, modern science, not much intl hockey, good frame and for external reason not that much hockey played in his career with the covid-lock-out-bad team for a while.... McDavid could do it even longer.

Does Mario Lemieux happen (say Connor Bedard explode by year 3 and make it really hard to be a clear number 1 in the world or Makar) and health....

Gretzky by the end of his 27 years old years had played 776 regular season professional hockey games, 133 playoff games, won his 4th cups, played his third Canada cup that summer, that was already probably the greatest hockey career ever by then and yet to be beat by anyone full body of work. And playing minutes we rarely see forward play since Lemieux retirement, if we ever see it.

So McDavid (645 rs games, will be 74 playoff games, 2 worlds) could have way more left in the tank, but has Farkas say the fact he still has to reach Orr career lenght, sustain winning (and yet to win) is still on for him..

He certainly doing stuff many said were not possible (but that people in the history board knew that people said the same when Orr won his Ross or Gretzky scored 200 and that a Gretzky-Lemieux today would have like McDavid now do stuff people said were not possible)

 

[jigglysquishy]

These playoffs are the first time I've thought McDavid overtaking Lemieux is possible. If they win today, an extremely dominant Conn Smythe and Cup is the crowning achievement of his career. I still don't think he ultimately does it.

A year ago I thought the chances were like 2%, and now like 30%.

He's definitely worked himself to a spot where #5 is becoming his floor.

 

[BraveCanadian]

These playoffs are the first time I've thought McDavid overtaking Lemieux is possible. If they win today, an extremely dominant Conn Smythe and Cup is the crowning achievement of his career. I still don't think he ultimately does it.

A year ago I thought the chances were like 2%, and now like 30%.

He's definitely worked himself to a spot where #5 is becoming his floor.

I tend to agree. The past few seasons and playoffs put him into the “it’s possible” realm which is an amazing accomplishment in itself.

Personally I don’t think he’s past Mario yet, but McDavid has a peak within a stones throw and time on his side.

It’s so important for him to win tonight though. One win erases so much negative in peoples minds.

 

[MadLuke]

The 2021 Bubble season is when I thought it was a possibility.

Scoring more than 50% pts over the closest non teammate was a really Gretzky-Lemieux thing to do (well not sure Lemieux ever got close to do that but it was a short season and 1989 Yzerman had a special season).

Then 33 pts in 16 playoff game the year after, made it certain that it was possible and the debate at minimum would exist, baring injury.

Conn Smythe record-breaking playoff numbers in a 3-0 legendary final turn around is a good way to enter the conversation for the mount rushmore, 2 pts tonight and no one outside Gretzky would have ever scored more than him in a playoff run.

Who would have thought to ever say that without some new 5th round play-in gimmick.

 

[Michael Farkas]

His game 6 and 7 vs Los Angeles when they were behind in the series, was like Mario Lemieux "we're not going to lose" stuff...just an absolute take over in a way that's rarely seen...

 

[Professor What]

I think some people are so caught up on accomplishments that are zeroes or ones that tonight is going to have an overweighted bearing on their opinions. If the Oilers fall short, they're going to ding McDavid for falling short of a Cup, even though he practically took over the series for two games to make it a series and had been far from bad before that. A Conn Smythe will help, of course (and my guess is that it's his regardless of the outcome tonight), but they'll still portray him as not being able to get over the hump, regardless of the fact that there's little more you could reasonably ask of him. Even when he wasn't on the scoresheet in game 6, I thought he was still very visible, and the attention that had to be paid to him just freed up teammates. That's another way to have an impact on a game too, after all, but that won't be acknowledged after a loss.

On the other hand, let the Oilers win and the all or nothing crowd may be hyping this up to be the greatest playoff run in history, especially if he finishes it off with a multi-point game. My question is how will one Cup be viewed as compared to multiple Cups for the big four. Will it be chalked up to "he did it in the toughest era to win one" or will it be "he still needs multiple Cups" to be in the conversation with them?

To me, this year doesn't tell us a lot we didn't already know. He's the best player in the world. If he continues at the pace he's on, he's headed for top five all time, and I think this playoff run alone gains him some spots on my centers list. He needs to keep it up to be mentioned in the same breath as our sport's Mount Rushmore, but if he continues to do what he's been doing in the playoffs (this year being a prime example, but something like winning a playoff scoring title without even reaching the final has to be considered too), then he could flirt with Lemieux's level. Let him get a couple of more 150-point seasons while maintaining his level of overall play and the regular season reputation could get there too.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

I think some people are so caught up on accomplishments that are zeroes or ones that tonight is going to have an overweighted bearing on their opinions. If the Oilers fall short, they're going to ding McDavid for falling short of a Cup, even though he practically took over the series for two games to make it a series and had been far from bad before that. A Conn Smythe will help, of course (and my guess is that it's his regardless of the outcome tonight), but they'll still portray him as not being able to get over the hump, regardless of the fact that there's little more you could reasonably ask of him. Even when he wasn't on the scoresheet in game 6, I thought he was still very visible, and the attention that had to be paid to him just freed up teammates. That's another way to have an impact on a game too, after all, but that won't be acknowledged after a loss.

On the other hand, let the Oilers win and the all or nothing crowd may be hyping this up to be the greatest playoff run in history, especially if he finishes it off with a multi-point game. My question is how will one Cup be viewed as compared to multiple Cups for the big four. Will it be chalked up to "he did it in the toughest era to win one" or will it be "he still needs multiple Cups" to be in the conversation with them?

To me, this year doesn't tell us a lot we didn't already know. He's the best player in the world. If he continues at the pace he's on, he's headed for top five all time, and I think this playoff run alone gains him some spots on my centers list. He needs to keep it up to be mentioned in the same breath as our sport's Mount Rushmore, but if he continues to do what he's been doing in the playoffs (this year being a prime example, but something like winning a playoff scoring title without even reaching the final has to be considered too), then he could flirt with Lemieux's level. Let him get a couple of more 150-point seasons while maintaining his level of overall play and the regular season reputation could get there too.

Maybe I have too much faith in the general public, but I feel like if Florida wins tonight the sentiment will be more the Oilers organization failed McDavid rather than he couldn't get it done.

You can't ask for more out of him than the 4th (potentially 2nd or 3rd) most points and most assists in a playoff ever