Can Connor McDavid break up the "big 4"?

JackSlater

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Eh if you prefer to get hung up on that and try and fail at being snarky instead of focusing on the real point, then you're just partaking in the denial for which I'm speaking.

There's a difference between shooting on 6'5 goalies with actual good craft, brilliant positioning, and cartoonishly large equipment vs 5'8 midgets barely wearing any gear and who would just stand there and "kick" at the puck as Gretzky and his contemporaries casually slid the puck along the ice past them in nightly 6-5 hockey games.

I'm just saying, until we can all admit that today's goalies compared to the goalies of the 70s and 80s have evolved SUBSTANTIALLY more than today's skaters and the stick technology have compared to the 70s and 80s, then there just isn't a worthwhile debate.

What do you honestly think would happen if the players all had to use the same wooden sticks they used in the 70s and 80s, but the goalies also had to wear and adhere to the same equipment regulations of those times. Do we honestly not think McDavid would be routinely getting 175-190 points per season throughout his prime?
I'm laughing at the misuse of that term that is so typical online. The point about goaltenders is so tedious and over-discussed that it isn't even worth going into. Everyone has heard is endlessly on this site. Yeah, the level of goaltending in the NHL today is higher than it was in the 1970s and 1980s.
 
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jigglysquishy

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Would peak McDavid hit 175-190 points in the 80s NHL? Ya, probably. I mean he's going to hit 150-155 this year.

I think we're in agreement that McDavid is a clear step down from peak Gretzky/Lemieux but a clear step up from peak Yzerman/Bossy.

For all the comments about scoring, we literally had a 6-3, 8-2,7-2 game last night. We had a 7-6 game on Tuesday. We are seeing teams hit 7 or 8 goals multiple times a week now.
 
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WaW

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I'm laughing at the misuse of that term that is so typical online. The point about goaltenders is so tedious and over-discussed that it isn't even worth going into. Everyone has heard is endlessly on this site. Yeah, the level of goaltending in the NHL today is higher than it was in the 1970s and 1980s.
Then you're simply dismissing it as "I don't care because it's far too inconvenient for those of us who like to pump the tires the players of the 80s and before as it pokes a fatal flaw in the narrative."
 

Michael Farkas

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You do understand that we do/did talk about it when doing all of these lists and other discussions...to the point that it was discussed to death and doesn't need to be rehashed in this Connor McDavid thread, right?

This forum has existed for X years, you don't believe that what your posing is a novel concept that we never considered before, right?
 

MadLuke

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Then you're simply dismissing it as "I don't care because it's far too inconvenient for those of us who like to pump the tires the players of the 80s and before as it pokes a fatal flaw in the narrative."
It is really unclear what you think people disagree with you, fatal flaw to which narrative ?

I have the feeling would you express your point without sarcasms as clearly has possible, it would either be a trivial one that everyone agree with or would add to the conversation.
 
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JackSlater

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Then you're simply dismissing it as "I don't care because it's far too inconvenient for those of us who like to pump the tires the players of the 80s and before as it pokes a fatal flaw in the narrative."
I'm "dismissing" it as a tired point that has been discussed endlessly even though you framed it as the opposite. You're showing up years late to the party to tell everyone something they've heard a hundred times, something which plenty of people already agree with more or less. The only reason I bothered commenting at all is due to the butchering of the term "gaslighting" which usually isn't used here.
 

SpookyTsuki

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He needs cups. And I don’t think he’ll get them. But if he keeps having seasons like this the cups won’t really matter.
 

Calderon

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Is this the new normal for him though? Is McDavid now going to string together multiple 130+ point seasons while nobody else reaches that total? Also, what exactly happened last season? He won the ross but was clearly mortal. Guy had a 50+ game stretch where Mitch Marner outscored him by 0.3 ppg for crying out loud. And this was after having absolutely torched the league in the 2021 season. A first round exit against the Kings this post season is also a distinct possibility.
 

Dr John Carlson

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Is this the new normal for him though? Is McDavid now going to string together multiple 130+ point seasons while nobody else reaches that total? Also, what exactly happened last season? He won the ross but was clearly mortal. Guy had a 50+ game stretch where Mitch Marner outscored him by 0.3 ppg for crying out loud. And this was after having absolutely torched the league in the 2021 season. A first round exit against the Kings this post season is also a distinct possibility.

So his 'what the heck happened to him' season still had him winning the Art Ross? Tough crowd.
 

jigglysquishy

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It's a fair point. It wasn't like Gretzky or Lemieux had 50 game stretches of getting outscored by Hawerchuk.

That being said, McDavid isn't Gretzky.

McDavid also had an unusually low on ice shooting percentage from teammates last year. So maybe in a normal year he gets 128 or 130. Still, a far cry from 150+.

Winning the Art Ross and finishing second in Hart voting in a down year is still impressive.
 

JackSlater

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Is this the new normal for him though? Is McDavid now going to string together multiple 130+ point seasons while nobody else reaches that total? Also, what exactly happened last season? He won the ross but was clearly mortal. Guy had a 50+ game stretch where Mitch Marner outscored him by 0.3 ppg for crying out loud. And this was after having absolutely torched the league in the 2021 season. A first round exit against the Kings this post season is also a distinct possibility.
That's the kind of thing that is a point against McDavid being considered up there with Lemieux/Gretzky. McDavid is touchable by the other stars in a way that they were not. If I recall correctly McDavid had poor puck luck last season (by all means someone can correct me if I'm wrong) and from watching some games before Kane arrived he wasn't getting a lot of help, but again while he was the best player he was not untouchable. Credit to him for being a guy who can lead the NHL in scoring even when things are not going so well.
 

Hockey Outsider

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That's the kind of thing that is a point against McDavid being considered up there with Lemieux/Gretzky. McDavid is touchable by the other stars in a way that they were not. If I recall correctly McDavid had poor puck luck last season (by all means someone can correct me if I'm wrong) and from watching some games before Kane arrived he wasn't getting a lot of help, but again while he was the best player he was not untouchable. Credit to him for being a guy who can lead the NHL in scoring even when things are not going so well.
That's right. I made several posts about this on the main board last year. McDavid had terrible "puck luck" last year, and should have finished with around 145 points. (From watching McDavid, I don't think he's actually created that many more opportunities this year compared to last year - just that he's shooting more, perhaps due to the frustration of his teammates not being to capitalize on his chances).

Of course, a player shouldn't get credit for what "should" have happened, and McDavid is "reachable" in a way that Gretzky and Lemieux weren't. But it's remarkable that even with terrible luck, McDavid was still able to take the Art Ross.

In 50 years when people are evaluating McDavid's career, I'm sure they'll wonder why he "only" scored 123 points (still the 6th highest total in the past 27 years) between two years with a pace of 150 points (per 82 games). But it was just bad luck.
 
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JackSlater

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That's right. I made several posts about this on the main board last year. McDavid had terrible "puck luck" last year, and should have finished with around 145 points. (From watching McDavid, I don't think he's actually created that many more opportunities this year compared to last year - just that he's shooting more, perhaps due to the frustration of his teammates not being to capitalize on his chances).

Of course, a player shouldn't get credit for what "should" have happened, and McDavid is "reachable" in a way that Gretzky and Lemieux weren't. But it's remarkable that even with terrible luck, McDavid was still able to take the Art Ross.
Yeah that's basically what I was trying to get at. While he isn't a Gretzky or Lemieux as a scorer, I give him full credit for being able to lead the NHL in scoring in a convincing manner while things aren't breaking his way. Also a reminder to not be slavishly fixated on a few points here and there when looking at a season or comparing players.
 

BigBadBruins7708

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Is this the new normal for him though? Is McDavid now going to string together multiple 130+ point seasons while nobody else reaches that total? Also, what exactly happened last season? He won the ross but was clearly mortal. Guy had a 50+ game stretch where Mitch Marner outscored him by 0.3 ppg for crying out loud. And this was after having absolutely torched the league in the 2021 season. A first round exit against the Kings this post season is also a distinct possibility.

If scoring 123 points is grounds for "wtf happened to him", doesn't that strengthen his case for knocking on the door of Top 5/Big 4?

For reference, your definition of him having a bad season is 3 points more than Crosby ever scored in a season.

Mario for example was "touchable" in 4 of his 6 Ross wins.

92 - won it by 8 over Kevin Stevens
93 - won it by 12 of LaFontaine
96 - won it by 12 over Jagr
97 - won it by 13 over Selanne

No better than McDavid winning it by 8 last year
 

MadLuke

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Also, what exactly happened last season?
Lowest on ice shooting percentage of his career at even strenght and in general was quite different than the average since scoring went up again in the nhl.

That said, he had 78 ev points in 80 games last year, 70 in 74 games this year, virtually the same, the difference is all in the much more effective power play.

McDavid, pts per 60 minutes at ev

22-23: 2.76
21-22: 2.61 (considering the 10.7% instead of his usual 14-15% shooting percentage seem like bad puck luck could explain a lot of it, if it was not some hand-wrist or something else in the kinematic chain injury damaging his shooting)
20-21: 3.57
19-20: 2.89
18-19: 2.82

Still winning Ross when things does not go well (would it be Jagr playing ljust 63 games and still winning) or puck luck, show a level of separation with the pack is going on, usually winners do it on a perfect storm kind of season, play almost all the game, power play went well, their line was firing and in general having a top 2 season if not the best season of their career, etc...

Jagr-McDavid does it on a "down" year and obviously Gretzky-Lemieux.
 
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jigglysquishy

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If scoring 123 points is grounds for "wtf happened to him", doesn't that strengthen his case for knocking on the door of Top 5/Big 4?

For reference, your definition of him having a bad season is 3 points more than Crosby ever scored in a season.

Mario for example was "touchable" in 4 of his 6 Ross wins.

92 - won it by 8 over Kevin Stevens
93 - won it by 12 of LaFontaine
96 - won it by 12 over Jagr
97 - won it by 13 over Selanne

No better than McDavid winning it by 8 last year
With missed games, it works out to a bit more.

92- Missed 16 games, PPG 0.42 ahead of Gretzky
93 - Missed 24 games, PPG 0.89 ahead of LaFontaine
96- Missed 12 games, PPG 0.48 ahead of Jagr
97 - Missed 6 games, PPG 0.09 ahead of Kariya

It's only in 1997 that he gets approached
 

Vilica

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In 50 years when people are evaluating McDavid's career, I'm sure they'll wonder why he "only" scored 123 points (still the 6th highest total in the past 27 years) between two years with a pace of 150 points (per 82 games). But it was just bad luck.

I really wish people would internalize this more about most any statistical performance. Even larger samples like an 82 game season are subject to the randomness inherent to the sport. Sometimes a down year is just regressing to the mean (their career mean). Sometimes a player's pace is just good luck. When a player on a torrid pace gets injured, the temptation for positive narrative coherence ("it was their new normal") inevitably wins over the negative narrative coherence ("they just ran hot over a small sample"). At least nowadays you can point to the underlying statistical evidence, but it isn't like this didn't happen in the 40s, 50s and 60s. Who'd want to bet that Maurice Richard's 50 in 50 season was the highest oiSH% at even strength of his career? That takes nothing away from his accomplishment, it just shows that luck plays a far bigger role than people want to acknowledge.
 
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Michael Farkas

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Not to divert your thoughts at all, but yeah, no doubt...1945 Richard was shooting on a bunch of goalies that wouldn't be in the league for the start of the 1947-48 season, except for an 18 year old (!) Harry Lumley...one of the NHL vets from the '45 season...if his shooting percentage was below 100% I'd be surprised...
 

wetcoast

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Jagr is constantly underrated as a playoff performer on these forums because he had the misfortune of peaking personally while the Penguins were going into firesale mode.

No Jagr = no Cup in 1992.
I agree that Jagr gets a bit of flack for his playoff resume and wrongly so but even without Jagr (ie replacement level player) the Pens probably win the SC in 92.

the No Jagr=no cup in 92 just doesn't pass the smell test.
 

JackSlater

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Apr 27, 2010
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If scoring 123 points is grounds for "wtf happened to him", doesn't that strengthen his case for knocking on the door of Top 5/Big 4?

For reference, your definition of him having a bad season is 3 points more than Crosby ever scored in a season.

Mario for example was "touchable" in 4 of his 6 Ross wins.

92 - won it by 8 over Kevin Stevens
93 - won it by 12 of LaFontaine
96 - won it by 12 over Jagr
97 - won it by 13 over Selanne

No better than McDavid winning it by 8 last year
Do you not see a difference between Lemieux in those seasons, missing a sizable amount of time in three of them and not particularly healthy in any of them, and McDavid playing full seasons at near full health? Once he entered his prime Lemieux was not getting outscored or nearly outscored by a non-Gretzky if he was healthy and played basically a full season. McDavid is an all time great but he is not the scorer that Lemieux was.
 

MadLuke

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Jagr had 7 points in a series that went to game 7 in 1992, 6 of those points were in the 4 wins, 3 goals.

Lemieux was there for only one of the win against the Rangers, it is not possible to say no Jagr=no cup, counterfactual are impossible to prove and they could have for sure, but it is not that hot of an take either.
 
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jigglysquishy

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Re: sample sizes

I think Crosby 2010-11 is a great example of this. His season is broken into 3 chunks, with the 50 points in 25 games being the standout centre piece

Part 1
13 GP 6 G 9 A 15 P 11 EVP +0 11.1% shooting
Tied for 5th in points, 13th in PPG

Part 2
25 GP 26 G 24 A 50 P 34 EVP +21 26.5% shooting
Closest was St. Louis with 35 points in 25 games

Part 3
3 GP 0 G 1 A 1 P -1

He then missed the better part of 1.5 years

Is he the 95 point player of his first 13 games? Is he the 85 goal 164 point player of his next 25 games? Is the 27 point player of his next weird 1.5/1 game stretch?

Crosby likely wasn't hitting 130 points or 60 goals. He absolutely was not hitting 85 goals or 160 points. He also wasn't going to settle into being just a 35 goal 95 point player.

Similairish story last year where McDavid has a sub PPG 18 game stretch mid season sandwiched between two 135-140 point stretches.
 

authentic

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That's right. I made several posts about this on the main board last year. McDavid had terrible "puck luck" last year, and should have finished with around 145 points. (From watching McDavid, I don't think he's actually created that many more opportunities this year compared to last year - just that he's shooting more, perhaps due to the frustration of his teammates not being to capitalize on his chances).

Of course, a player shouldn't get credit for what "should" have happened, and McDavid is "reachable" in a way that Gretzky and Lemieux weren't. But it's remarkable that even with terrible luck, McDavid was still able to take the Art Ross.

In 50 years when people are evaluating McDavid's career, I'm sure they'll wonder why he "only" scored 123 points (still the 6th highest total in the past 27 years) between two years with a pace of 150 points (per 82 games). But it was just bad luck.

A big reason for his increase in scoring is his ability to shoot five hole consistently. No player ever scored this many five hole goals that I've ever witnessed. That and a bit of luck going his way compared to last season of course.
 
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