Can Connor McDavid break up the "big 4"?

[JackSlater]

Yeah, I love those..."if he hits 1000 points...then he's [this]...." ...well, what if he hits 998 before a tough scoring change in his last game...? Now he's out of the HOF or whatever?

I'm not saying that Ovechkin continuing to throw pucks into the net at will is unimpressive...it certainly is. And part of me wonders if him playing in the "more information" era (take that as you will) actually hurts him (and others) compared to historical players...but the whole "895 is this, 893 is that" or whatever is just illogical to me...

I'll wait until he passes Gretzky to really get in on it, but if someone wants to make the case that Ovechkin belongs with Orr/Lemieux/Howe just because Gretzky didn't score more goals... well, it's going to be a very difficult position to defend. Honestly though Ovechkin boosters, like Crosby boosters, do have something to fear in terms of McDavid.

 

[bobholly39]

This is, quite frankly, a ludicrous position with no merit. 892 goals, and he's arguably outside the top 15, 895 goals and he's arguably number 2? It makes zero sense.

He has far and away the lowest peak out of the Big Four + Ovi and McDavid.

I get why it is a good talking point, but in terms of serious discussion Ovechkin is closer to 20 than to 5.

Ovechkin was voted in at 22 by this forum in 2018. And followed it up with point finishes of 15, 19, 66, 16. Hart finishes of 7, 13, 10.

The strength of the top 10 players is just too high for these seasons to move the needle much.

It just such a very different world than a McDavid who since 2018 has added point finishes of 2,2,1,1,1. Hart finishes of 3,5,1,2,1.

McDavid is legitimately making a case for #5. Ovechkin stopped making his case in 2010.

I think you're being a bit too harsh on Ovechkin and what he added since 2018. Also - these projects are always tougher on modern/active players to begin with - so his ranking of 22 in 2018 was already probably too low.

I think Ovechkin is definitely closer to the top 10 all time then top 20 today, and I probably already have him top 10 myself.

To your overall point though - I obviously agree wholeheartedly. There is a big 4 - and Ovechkin won't be the one to break that big 4, nor change it into a big 5, and that's regardless of if he finishes with 825 career goals, 892, 894 or as much as 950.

 

[wetcoast]

Yeah, I love those..."if he hits 1000 points...then he's [this]...." ...well, what if he hits 998 before a tough scoring change in his last game...? Now he's out of the HOF or whatever?

I'm not saying that Ovechkin continuing to throw pucks into the net at will is unimpressive...it certainly is. And part of me wonders if him playing in the "more information" era (take that as you will) actually hurts him (and others) compared to historical players...but the whole "895 is this, 893 is that" or whatever is just illogical to me...

It's what people do when grasping at straws, others make nuanced and full arguments.

 

[ozzie]

I still think he makes it a big 5. His career is far from done; this season could be his peak season. Let's see what the next few seasons bring, obviously if he starts hitting 130-150 points person, it changes everything. I still don't know if he can knock anyone out of the big 4, without a cup. He would really have to pile up the points and at least make it to the finals. I still think there will be a big 5, just not sure where Connor will sit.

It's interesting because who is the weakest of the big 4. I'd argue it's either Hower or Lemieux, with Gretzky and Orr pretty locked in.

 

[grentthealien]

Definitely looking more and more possible with each passing day.

 

[cupface52]

I think McDavid might have a chance of passing Howe because I think McDavid might be peaking higher right now. Also, there is this.
Top 5 finishes

Howe	McDavid
20	7

Top 3 finishes

Howe	McDavid
12	7

Top 2 finishes

Howe	McDavid
7	7

Art Ross

Howe	McDavid
6	5

I don't think McDavid has a shot at catching Howe in Top 5 finishes, but I think he can end up with a high number there. Other than that McDavid is already super close in finishes at the very very top. Let's say it ends up something like this:
Top 5 finishes

Howe	McDavid
20	14

Top 3 finishes

Howe	McDavid
12	13

Top 2 finishes

Howe	McDavid
7	11

Art Ross

Howe	McDavid
6	8

McDavid would obviously need to start winning also, but I don't think Howe is as out of reach as it might seem. Atleast McDavid has the chance to make it an interesting debate if he has some team success.

Also here are most top 2 finishes ever, incredible stuff from McDavid...

Gretzky	13
Esposito	8
Lemieux	7
Howe	7
McDavid	7
Jagr	7
Hull	6

I've always felt that Howes peak is attainable in a way the other 3 guys aren't. His peak might be highest outside of the 3 other guys (I lean Hasek though), but his outstanding career more than make up for it. It's hard for me to rank the top 4. Wayne is easy 1 because he had both career and insane peak. I don't even know if Howe is 4th for me, but he is weirdly the one I think is easiest to knock out of the top 4. I have a harder time ranking McDavid ahead of Mario when I'm pretty confident that Mario would beat McDavid head to head. It's weird.

Is a top 5 or top 3 finish as valuable in 1955 as it is in 2023? I don't think it is.

In 1955 you had 18 first line skaters, finishing 5th puts you in the top 27%. In 2023, you have 96 first line skaters, finishing 5th puts you in the top 5%. It was a league filled with Canadians only, currently more than half(majority actually) the top players are international.

While you can only play against players available, QoC, and the fact that hockey draws from a global talent pool does need to be taken into considerarion to a certain degree. McDavid finished second behind a player from Russia, and one from Germany, something players from even the 80s wouldn't have been competing against, let alone the 50s.

 

[Calderon]

This lump of the few GOAT players that we call the big 4 or big 5 in the future might have slightly different meaning to different people. To me the possible addition of Ovechkin into the big 4 and thus expanding it to big 5 (for a short time before McDavid swoops in) would just mean that Gretzky, Orr, Howe and Lemieux are still the four greatest of all time but Ovi is securely at the fifth spot with nobody cutting inbetween — all the while slots 2-4 can be rearranged by however you feel on a given day. (I'm actually not sure about Ovi's rank at this point, just wanted to state aloud how people might have varying ideas of the big #.)

As it stands, the same goes for McDavid, but him having likely just entered his peak his CV is really subject to change dramatically and, say, a 40+ point run with a Conn Smythe and a couple more Harts and Rosses would already warrant a seat in the discussion for spots 2-4 imho.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

This lump of the few GOAT players that we call the big 4 or big 5 in the future might have slightly different meaning to different people. To me the possible addition of Ovechkin into the big 4 and thus expanding it to big 5 (for a short time before McDavid swoops in) would just mean that Gretzky, Orr, Howe and Lemieux are still the four greatest of all time but Ovi is securely at the fifth spot with nobody cutting inbetween — all the while slots 2-4 can be rearranged by however you feel on a given day. (I'm actually not sure about Ovi's rank at this point, just wanted to state aloud how people might have varying ideas of the big #.)

As it stands, the same goes for McDavid, but him having likely just entered his peak his CV is really subject to change dramatically and, say, a 40+ point run with a Conn Smythe and a couple more Harts and Rosses would already warrant a seat in the discussion for spots 2-4 imho.

By "Ovechkin" do you mean Crosby?

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

By "Ovechkin" do you mean Crosby?

Neither of them sniff 5th

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Neither of them sniff 5th

It's only a matter of opinion, but many people feel Crosby is there and not so many others think Ovie should be.

 

[Calderon]

I want to address the issue of McDavid not winning the cup, and what if he never will. Jagr is in most people's top10 of all time, right? How do you rank his cup wins? Winning a cup sort of gets you a check mark but let's not pretend Jagr was nearly as integral to those cup wins than probably every other top20 player. Combining the 1990-92 playoff totals Jagr had 37 points (7th best or 5th best Penguin) in 45 games for 0.82 ppg (T-42nd, 15 games minimum). Over the rest of his post season career Jagr amassed 164 points in 163 games which is good but only re-reached the finals once, as a washed up rental Bruin.

I guess the issue isn't McDavid not making the top10 even without a cup, though, it's about breaking the big 4. Would Jagr be the consensus #5 goat if he won a cup in his prime as the main guy, though?

 

[BraveCanadian]

I want to address the issue of McDavid not winning the cup, and what if he never will. Jagr is in most people's top10 of all time, right? How do you rank his cup wins? Winning a cup sort of gets you a check mark but let's not pretend Jagr was nearly as integral to those cup wins than probably every other top20 player. Combining the 1990-92 playoff totals Jagr had 37 points (7th best or 5th best Penguin) in 45 games for 0.82 ppg (T-42nd, 15 games minimum). Over the rest of his post season career Jagr amassed 164 points in 163 games which is good but only re-reached the finals once, as a washed up rental Bruin.

I guess the issue isn't McDavid not making the top10 even without a cup, though, it's about breaking the big 4. Would Jagr be the consensus #5 goat if he won a cup in his prime as the main guy, though?

Jagr is constantly underrated as a playoff performer on these forums because he had the misfortune of peaking personally while the Penguins were going into firesale mode.

No Jagr = no Cup in 1992.

 

[SUX2BU]

No

 

[PostBradMalone]

I think McDavid is the perfect all-time #5- a cap-era generational talent who should eventually finish with 1-3 Cups and by far the best numbers of the 00s, but without the defining achievement that Gretzky (points) Orr (two-way domination) or Howe (consistency) brought to the table.

I think most people will still also rank Lemieux above him in ten years' time, but that's probably the most "vulnerable" member of the Big 4 due to his health:

Lemieux- 4 Lindsay, 3 Harts, 6 Ross, 3 Richard*
McDavid- 3 Lindsay (4th incoming), 2 Harts (1 incoming), 4 Ross (1 incoming), 0 Richard (1 incoming)

If he surpasses or ties Lemieux in individual hardware to go along with at least one Cup, it will be very tough to ignore those accomplishments despite Mario's insane raw numbers and the visual appeal he still holds in highlights etc.

 

[jigglysquishy]

I want to address the issue of McDavid not winning the cup, and what if he never will. Jagr is in most people's top10 of all time, right? How do you rank his cup wins? Winning a cup sort of gets you a check mark but let's not pretend Jagr was nearly as integral to those cup wins than probably every other top20 player. Combining the 1990-92 playoff totals Jagr had 37 points (7th best or 5th best Penguin) in 45 games for 0.82 ppg (T-42nd, 15 games minimum). Over the rest of his post season career Jagr amassed 164 points in 163 games which is good but only re-reached the finals once, as a washed up rental Bruin.

I guess the issue isn't McDavid not making the top10 even without a cup, though, it's about breaking the big 4. Would Jagr be the consensus #5 goat if he won a cup in his prime as the main guy, though?

Jagr is not in most people's top 10.

In the last top 100, only 6 of 32 posters had him top 10. 13 had him 11-15, 9 had him 16-20. 4 outside top 20.

30 had Beliveau top 10.
27 had Hull top 10.
26 had Harvey top 10.
23 had Richard top 10.
17 had Roy top 10.
13 had Bourque top 10.
11 had Morenz top 10
10 had Hasek top 10.
10 had Crosby top 10.
8 had Shore top 10.

So of the 6 available spots, he was 11th most common to be listed top 10.

A thing that will work in McDavid's favour with Jagr, is that his 2022 playoff run is better than any singular Jagr run.

 

[WaW]

These discussions would go so much better if the 70s/80s enthusiasts would refrain from resisting and even gaslighting in some cases, what should be an objective, unanimously agreed upon reality that goaltending has over-scaled in today's game vs 30+ years ago.

When Adam f***ing Oates has a higher career shooting percentage than Alex Ovechkin, you know something was seriously fishy about the 80s game.

 

[norrisnick]

These discussions would go so much better if the 70s/80s enthusiasts would refrain from resisting and even gaslighting in some cases, what should be an objective, unanimously agreed upon reality that goaltending has over-scaled in today's game vs 30+ years ago.

When Adam f***ing Oates has a higher career shooting percentage than Alex Ovechkin, you know something was seriously fishy about the 80s game.

While you have a point, I would expect most top line level players of having a higher shooting percentage than a volume shooter. Of the 30 goal scorers this season, OV sits at 24th in shooting percentage. And this is OV's 4th highest shooting percentage year of his career.

 

[MadLuke]

When Adam f***ing Oates has a higher career shooting percentage than Alex Ovechkin, you know something was seriously fishy about the 80s game.

What Alex Tanguay having the best shooting percentage since Ovechkin entered the league (100+ goals, 250 games played) and Ovechkin being only 95th equal to scorer Henrik Sedin, Saku Koivu and Milan Lucic tell us about the 2000s game (or Ovechkin) ?

When a player has a lower shooting percentage than a contemporary playmaker like H. Sedin and Joe Thornton, it is not that special for Oates to be ahead. Ovechkin has not a bad shooting percentage for where he shoots obviously (he often shoot in situation that not that many nhler would dream to score from and where the average forward would have a terrible shooting percentage, but he has just an above mediocre shooting percentage.

That said, that feel quite like a strawman, who on the History Message board, debate that goaltending was worst in the 80s game (regardless if the athlete were worst one or not, would it be because of technics, defensive support and a lot because of equipment getting better)

 

[jigglysquishy]

If you limit yourself to 1939 (Hull) through 1987 (Crosby) Ovechkin has an argument for third best forward in that nearly 50 year span. I have him behind Jagr, and I can see why someone would vote Espo or Messier ahead. But arguably third best forward in a nearly 50 year stretch doesn't sound like we're inflating guys based on 80s scoring.

Yzerman and Sakic and Esposito all have higher raw numbers, but it would be very uncommon to rank them ahead of Ovechkin now.

 

[JackSlater]

I think McDavid is the perfect all-time #5- a cap-era generational talent who should eventually finish with 1-3 Cups and by far the best numbers of the 00s, but without the defining achievement that Gretzky (points) Orr (two-way domination) or Howe (consistency) brought to the table.

I think most people will still also rank Lemieux above him in ten years' time, but that's probably the most "vulnerable" member of the Big 4 due to his health:

Lemieux- 4 Lindsay, 3 Harts, 6 Ross, 3 Richard*
McDavid- 3 Lindsay (4th incoming), 2 Harts (1 incoming), 4 Ross (1 incoming), 0 Richard (1 incoming)

If he surpasses or ties Lemieux in individual hardware to go along with at least one Cup, it will be very tough to ignore those accomplishments despite Mario's insane raw numbers and the visual appeal he still holds in highlights etc.

I agree that Lemieux is the one most vulnerable to McDavid. Healthy McDavid could/should surpass him in trophies for those who want that and Lemieux's main point among the big four is how spectacular he looked, and McDavid looks very spectacular in his endless HD highlights.

These discussions would go so much better if the 70s/80s enthusiasts would refrain from resisting and even gaslighting in some cases, what should be an objective, unanimously agreed upon reality that goaltending has over-scaled in today's game vs 30+ years ago.

When Adam f***ing Oates has a higher career shooting percentage than Alex Ovechkin, you know something was seriously fishy about the 80s game.

Ah yes, endless gaslighting about previous era goaltenders.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

I think McDavid is the perfect all-time #5- a cap-era generational talent who should eventually finish with 1-3 Cups and by far the best numbers of the 00s, but without the defining achievement that Gretzky (points) Orr (two-way domination) or Howe (consistency) brought to the table.

I think most people will still also rank Lemieux above him in ten years' time, but that's probably the most "vulnerable" member of the Big 4 due to his health:

Lemieux- 4 Lindsay, 3 Harts, 6 Ross, 3 Richard*
McDavid- 3 Lindsay (4th incoming), 2 Harts (1 incoming), 4 Ross (1 incoming), 0 Richard (1 incoming)

If he surpasses or ties Lemieux in individual hardware to go along with at least one Cup, it will be very tough to ignore those accomplishments despite Mario's insane raw numbers and the visual appeal he still holds in highlights etc.

You left out lemieuxs 2 Conn smythes that were won in Gretzky like fashion

 

[MadLuke]

You left out lemieuxs 2 Conn smythes that were won in Gretzky like fashion

It was implied that 1-3 cups of McDavid would occur in last year type of fashion i think, McDavid last year was having that type of run, only Gretzky (3 times) Lemieux (1 times) scored over McDavid 2.06 ppg of last year in a playoff run of 10 games or more.

In 92 Lemieux scored 34 pts in just 15 games, last year McDavid had 33 in 15 and was almost a full +1 by game scoring 1.5 even strength pts per game.

 

[jigglysquishy]

1992 is great, and a higher level of play than 1991. But having your team beat the best defensive team in the league while you're out hurt really demonatrates the strength of those Penguins teams.

Flames were third best defensive team last year. Does anyone seriously think the Oilers beat them if McDavid doesn't play?

For the record, I don't think McDavid overtakes Lemieux. But I also didn't think he was going to put up 2 PPG in the playoffs last year or 150 points this year.

 

[MadLuke]

For the record, I don't think McDavid overtakes Lemieux. But I also didn't think he was going to put up 2 PPG in the playoffs last year or 150 points this year.

Despite how much expectation he put has a prospect, rookie and second season, he is still surprising people about what he can do.

He is doing actual things, people believed to be virtually impossible just 5 years ago and moving the goal post about Mario-Wayne would not do X today because of the sport and league change.

Seem silly to say anyone is safe outside Gretzky (just imagine what amount of science, stem cell's therapy, crisper genetic repair and what not will be put in his body during the summer of 2029, iv hydratation drop that let out use a lot of regenarative dopping during the year, Lebron-Howe longevity could become almost normal for the giant contract players).

 

[WaW]

I agree that Lemieux is the one most vulnerable to McDavid. Healthy McDavid could/should surpass him in trophies for those who want that and Lemieux's main point among the big four is how spectacular he looked, and McDavid looks very spectacular in his endless HD highlights.



Ah yes, endless gaslighting about previous era goaltenders.

Eh if you prefer to get hung up on that and try and fail at being snarky instead of focusing on the real point, then you're just partaking in the denial for which I'm speaking.

There's a difference between shooting on 6'5 goalies with actual good craft, brilliant positioning, and cartoonishly large equipment vs 5'8 midgets barely wearing any gear and who would just stand there and "kick" at the puck as Gretzky and his contemporaries casually slid the puck along the ice past them in nightly 6-5 hockey games.

I'm just saying, until we can all admit that today's goalies compared to the goalies of the 70s and 80s have evolved SUBSTANTIALLY more than today's skaters and the stick technology have compared to the 70s and 80s, then there just isn't a worthwhile debate.

What do you honestly think would happen if the players all had to use the same wooden sticks they used in the 70s and 80s, but the goalies also had to wear and adhere to the same equipment regulations of those times. Do we honestly not think McDavid would be routinely getting 175-190 points per season throughout his prime?