I'm trying to decide whether McDavid is roughly equal to Crosby in ability (but with better health), or if he's simply a better player.
Despite their careers overlapping, the scoring environments during their respective peaks have been very different. (This is probably obvious to all of us, but it's not the case on the main boards). Between 2011 and 2017, a span of seven seasons, there were just five 100+ point seasons. (Granted, one of those years was the lockout-shortened 2013, but only one player was on pace). In 2022 alone, there were eight players who scored 100+ points (and we had even more than that in each of 2023 and 2024). Nine years into their careers, adjusted for the scoring environment, there's little separating them in terms of per-game production. (McDavid's 2023 season was hugely impressive - but I'll admit that it feels a bit less special now that two rivals both scored 140+ points the year after).
McDavid already won more Hart and Art Ross trophies than Crosby. It's not difficult to imagine that a healthier Crosby could have won five or six Art Ross trophies, and three or four Hart trophies. (Obviously the advantage goes to McDavid, for actually doing that, rather than merely being on pace to do so). But that supports the "McDavid is similar to Crosby, just healthier" argument. On the other hand, even if we use Crosby's partial seasons (like 2011), he never separated himself from the pack quite to the same extent as McDavid did in 2021 and 2023. Close, but not quite (and, again, that's two full seasons for McDavid vs a half season for Crosby, and then a 22 game fragment in 2012).
Crosby's advantages over McDavid are two-way play, playoffs, and longevity:
- Two way play? Crosby is a better two-way player, but I don't think the advantage is too big. McDavid is underrated in this regard (I'll say the same thing I always say about Jagr - neither is great defensively in the conventional sense, but they still have a huge, positive impact on their teams' goal differential because they create so many scoring chances). Long term, I don't think this will affect the comparison too much.
- Playoffs? Crosby is probably the best playoff performer of his generation. He's only the 6th player in NHL history (and the only one who didn't play in the 1980s or early 1990s) to score 200+ points. He had four playoff runs where he was at least in contention for the Conn Smythe trophy - I can't think of many players, post 1980, who we can say that about. And if we count international tournaments, he scored one of the biggest goals in hockey history, and was outstanding in the 2015 tournament (MVP and leading scorer). At the same time, there are some obvious weaknesses - he has disappointing output in the SC finals, he only led his team in scoring once in four trips to the finals, and he was underwhelming in 2010 prior to the golden goal. McDavid's playoff resume is obviously much shorter (before this spring, he had appeared in fewer than 50 games - not his fault, but it still has to be rated "incomplete"). McDavid is giving us a historically great playoff run - win or lose, this is clearly better than anything Crosby has ever done in the spring. I'd still evaluate Crosby as the better playoff performer overall, but this has helped make a serious dent.
- Longevity? This is tough to forecast. Crosby is starting to rival Bourque for high-level consistency, year after year. Few players in history have had as many years as a Hart finalist, or a top ten scorer (nobody in history has more point-per-game seasons, but that comes across as era-based trivia, rather than a serious argument). McDavid is still only 27. He's one of the fastest players in history, but the concern is, as he gets older, if he loses that speed advantage (either due to an injury, or just aging), how much will his play be affected? McDavid could win another 2-3 Hart and Art Ross trophies, and become only the second player in history to score 2,000 points; or he could deal with recurring injuries and end up with all kinds of gaps in his resume, like Lemieux. Given McDavid's dedication to the sport, and his excellent hockey sense, he can probably play at an elite level well into his 30's, even with diminished speed. But let's give him credit for that if/when it happens (rather than simply assuming it'll happen). Crosby - at least for now - has a big advantage in this category.
As for Lemieux? I agree that McDavid has had times when he's performed at close to Lemieux's level (2021 and 2023 regular seasons, 2022 and 2024 playoffs). I find this comparison easier - Lemieux was a more innately talented player (with a more versatile skillset, and he was pretty clearly the better goal scorer). I have a tough time picturing Lemieux ever getting outscored by Kucherov or MacKinnon. I can't see McDavid ever kicking Lemieux out of the "big four" entirely, but I can envision him turning it into a "big five". Lemieux is the better player, and I don't think that assessment will ever change, but it's possible that if McDavid keeps playing at this level for 5+ years, his career value will be so good, it would be impossible to ignore. (Similar to Howe vs Orr - I have no doubt that Orr is the better player, but I rank Howe higher due to the immense gap in career value). But let's not leap ahead too quickly. McDavid still has to play 270 times just to match Lemieux's game count. It's still many years away (late 2020's) until we can even consider the possibility of McDavid passing Lemieux in career value.
The fact that we're having a serious conversation about McDavid turning it into the "big five" tells me that, regardless of health, he's probably at least half a step above Crosby. We can make a semi-plausible case for Crosby as the consensus #5 all-time (
see link) but I never thought he could remold the top of the pyramid entirely. McDavid can do that, and we're lucky that we get to witness his career.not
