C William Nylander (2014, 8th, TOR) VI

[Tatar Shots]

If you're interested in more AHL (and CHL stats), http://chlstats.pythonanywhere.com/ is a good resource.

Wow that is a great source thank you.

Also according to that site Nylander has 15 ES points which would take his ES equivalency to 43.6 points If my math is right.

 

[Willy Stylez]

I know.

What is wrong with people? Can't Nylander be appreciated for what he's doing, and Larkin too?

Dylan Larkin is an AMAZING young player who will get some Calder consideration, if he keeps this great play up. He's a 19 year old who is excelling against/among grown men. That's not a slight against Nylander. But the FACT is, that Larkin is ahead of Willie at this stage of the game. It's the truth, Ruth.

I suspect that we'll be hearing tons about BOTH of them for the next 20 years.

Enjoy that, you silly fans.

This, enjoy the players damnit. Two superstars in the making..

 

[WTFMAN99]

This, enjoy the players damnit. Two superstars in the making..

The league and fan bases benefit.

Even the biggest hater on Detroit for example will still probably appreciate the Datsyuk highlight reel goals.

 

[Semantics]

This would be great if these "point equivalency" charts were always right, but they're not. Bet the charts don't explain how Draisaitl? Or Kadri? What would the equivalencys put Pulkkinen's 61G/109pt pace at this year? Probably no where close to what he will do. How about Forsberg going from 34 points in the Minors to 63 in the NHL?

Actually the point equivalency ratios are pretty much dead on for Kadri if you ignore the aberration in the lockout season. They're pretty close for Pulkkinen as well; they predict 14 points and he has 10, we'll see how the rest of the year plays out. Pulkkinen is older too, so it's not a surprise if he underperforms the ratios, just like it won't be a surprise if Nylander outperforms them.

Forsberg's AHL season was as as a 19 year old, just like Nylander this year, so you'd expect him to outperform the ratio as he was still developing rapidly. It also looks like last year may have been a bit of an aberration for Forsberg; his sh% was above average, and this year he's only on pace for 47 points, which is pretty consistent with the ratios for an AHL+2 year.

I have absolutely zero doubt that Nylander will be a more productive NHL player than Forsberg.

 

[Semantics]

Jurco is currently averaging 2.333 pts/game in the AHL this season, and yet has never been able to break out of 3/4 line grinder role at the NHL level. Yet he apparently seems 'too good' for the AHL.

Oh my god. Jurco has played THREE games in the AHL this year. Did you really just try to use a THREE game sample size of another player to downplay Nylander's accomplishments? Hahaha. My sides. HAHAHAHA!!!

HF just never ceases to amaze and crack me up.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Actually the point equivalency ratios are pretty much dead on for Kadri if you ignore the aberration in the lockout season. They're pretty close for Pulkkinen as well; they predict 14 points and he has 10, we'll see how the rest of the year plays out. Pulkkinen is older too, so it's not a surprise if he underperforms the ratios, just like it won't be a surprise if Nylander outperforms them.

Forsberg's AHL season was as as a 19 year old, just like Nylander this year, so you'd expect him to outperform the ratio as he was still developing rapidly. It also looks like last year may have been a bit of an aberration for Forsberg; his sh% was above average, and this year he's only on pace for 47 points, which is pretty consistent with the ratios for an AHL+2 year.

I have absolutely zero doubt that Nylander will be a more productive NHL player than Forsberg.

So if you think that its "expected" Forsberg out out perform the ratio since he's 19, then what do you expect Nylander to do next year? If it's expected that Forsberg will put up 60+ in the NHL after putting up 0.72 in the AHL then what do you expect Nylander to do putting up 1.35? 90+ points next year?

Oh my god. Jurco has played THREE games in the AHL this year. Did you really just try to use a THREE game sample size of another player to downplay Nylander's accomplishments? Hahaha. My sides. HAHAHAHA!!!

HF just never ceases to amaze and crack me up.

His last season in the AHL he was a ppg player as well yet he hasn't been able to crack our roster the last two years.

 

[Keeping it Blue]

We really need some R² values here to put any faith into those numbers. I predict they are low... I'll be surprised if they are above 0.3.

That said, people need to stop using outliers when they claim that the numbers are BS. They are an average point estimate. This may be shocking, but half of the data is above this and half is below. Just like the roulette wheel can run 10 red in a row some players will blow the comparison out of the water - it doesn't mean the method is bad.

 

[Hugh Mongusbig]

You'd think Wings fans wouldn't be making these comparisons, since, without considering age, the amount of NCAA players who have produced like Larkin before, who didn't make much of an impact in the NHL. The Leafs have had a few of those in recent years, including Frattin, Stalberg, and Bozak.

You have to be joking. None of those guys put up the numbers in the NCAA as freshman that Larkin did. Hell, not even Jonathan Toews put up the kind of numbers Larkin did as a freshman in the NCAA, so I doubt there's much of a chance Larkin will turn into one of those NCAA busts.

JT freshman year 39pts in 42 games or .929PPG
DL freshman year 47pts in 35 games or 1.343PPG

This season, as a 19 yo rookie, Larkin is the second leading scorer on Detroit, only trailing Zetterberg. As a teenager, he has scored goals in 4 straight games, something that hasn't been done since a kid by the name of Stevie Y last did it. And from what I rememeber, that Stevie Y kid turned out pretty good too.

Larkin leads the Wings in goals, game winning goals, and leads the league in +/-. The kid has already shown he is a gamer and just has a knack for sniffing out the puck and creating offense for himself and his line.

The chance that Larkin tuns into a NCAA bust at this point is about ZERO unless his career is sideline with injuries. He has already shown himself to be one of the better forwards on the Detroit roster going forward.

 

[Menzinger]

At relatively so few games played this season is silly to make any kind of serious career spanning predictions of young prospects.

 

[nbwingsfan]

We really need some R² values here to put any faith into those numbers. I predict they are low... I'll be surprised if they are above 0.3.

That said, people need to stop using outliers when they claim that the numbers are BS. They are an average point estimate. This may be shocking, but half of the data is above this and half is below. Just like the roulette wheel can run 10 red in a row some players will blow the comparison out of the water - it doesn't mean the method is bad.

No one is saying the method is bad, but using this method as gospel and 100% proof that Nylander is better than Larkin is bad. Sure it could be dead on and he could put up 58 points next year. Or he could put up 20, or 80. No one knows but you can't use this data and say that Nylander is having a "better" year.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Why has this thread been invaded by Wings fans trying to discredit Nylander, and why aren't the mods able to do anything about it? The occasional comparison to other prospects is one thing, but I didn't come into the Nylander thread to read multiple pages about Larkin, Pulkkinen, Jurco. What's next, a complete rundown of how Nylander compares to every ****ing Red Wings prospect since Yzerman? The last couple of pages are a complete joke.

And then there's the question of, why are Red Wings fans so insecure about Nylander. Are they really *that* bothered by the possibility Nylander may be almost as good as Larkin, or heaven forbid maybe possibly slightly better if all goes well for him? Is it not enough for them that they got one of the best players in the draft with a mid-1st? Are they angry at the Leafs because we stole Babcock and they're only on pace for 93.7 points without him?

I may be wrong but I think the discussion in the last few pages started because a leafs-fan said both Marner and Nylander will be better than Larkin soon. Which is theoretically possible.. but any time you throw out statements like that you are likely to encounter some resistance. One of the first posters that responded to that wasn't even a Wings fan.

 

[TheLeastOfTheBunch]

You have to be joking. None of those guys put up the numbers in the NCAA as freshman that Larkin did. Hell, not even Jonathan Toews put up the kind of numbers Larkin did as a freshman in the NCAA, so I doubt there's much of a chance Larkin will turn into one of those NCAA busts.

JT freshman year 39pts in 42 games or .929PPG
DL freshman year 47pts in 35 games or 1.343PPG

This season, as a 19 yo rookie, Larkin is the second leading scorer on Detroit, only trailing Zetterberg. As a teenager, he has scored goals in 4 straight games, something that hasn't been done since a kid by the name of Stevie Y last did it. And from what I rememeber, that Stevie Y kid turned out pretty good too.

Larkin leads the Wings in goals, game winning goals, and leads the league in +/-. The kid has already shown he is a gamer and just has a knack for sniffing out the puck and creating offense for himself and his line.

The chance that Larkin tuns into a NCAA bust at this point is about ZERO unless his career is sideline with injuries. He has already shown himself to be one of the better forwards on the Detroit roster going forward.

Wow, way to miss the point. Perhaps you should re-read my post

EDIT: You brought up Larkin's numbers as a freshman and compared them to another freshman, Detroit fans in this thread are bringing up older AHL players as comparisons with Nylander. You don't think there's something off here?

That was the point with comparing Larkin to older NCAA players, just as Wings fans are comparing Nylander with older AHL players in this thread

 

[Hugh Mongusbig]

Oh my god. Jurco has played THREE games in the AHL this year. Did you really just try to use a THREE game sample size of another player to downplay Nylander's accomplishments? Hahaha. My sides. HAHAHAHA!!!

HF just never ceases to amaze and crack me up.

When you are done laughing, you will see that Jurco was just named AHL player of the week. He has been and continues to be a very very good AHL player, but he hasn't figured out how to do it at the NHL level.

My point stands. There are plenty of skilled guys who can tear up the AHL, but until they do it on NHL ice, it means very little. Nylander could very well be in the same boat as Jurco and other skilled guys.

From what I remember of the AHL playoffs last season, Nylander was made a target by opposing teams and was quite easily shut down and made ineffective. The same could be true when he finally hits NHL ice.

I'm not trying to downplay Nylander's accomplishments in the least, but his accomplishments to this point are what they are. AHL level and below. He has not accomplished ANYTHING at the NHL level, and until he does, it's absolutely silly to claim he is better than another player that is actually doing it in the NHL as opposed to the lower level leagues.

Nylander has been outstanding in the AHL this season. But considering how he was easily shutdown in the AHL playoffs last season, that is where I want to see him improve before making the next jump.

 

[Hugh Mongusbig]

Wow, way to miss the point. Perhaps you should re-read my post

EDIT: You brought up Larkin's numbers as a freshman and compared them to another freshman, Detroit fans in this thread are bringing up older AHL players as comparisons with Nylander. You don't think there's something off here?

That was the point with comparing Larkin to older NCAA players, just as Wings fans are comparing Nylander with older AHL players in this thread

gotcha.

I think the older players were just brought up to show that not every player that is good in the AHL finds the same success in the NHL, and that has nothing to do with the age of the player. Some guys can light up the AHL, but are never able to carry that over to the NHL for whatever reason. I don't think a players age has anything to do with that. Granted a kid that can tear up the AHL at 19 is going to have a far better shot at carrying it over than a player that doesn't start to figure out the AHL game until he's 25.

 

[WTFMAN99]

When you are done laughing, you will see that Jurco was just named AHL player of the week. He has been and continues to be a very very good AHL player, but he hasn't figured out how to do it at the NHL level.

My point stands. There are plenty of skilled guys who can tear up the AHL, but until they do it on NHL ice, it means very little. Nylander could very well be in the same boat as Jurco and other skilled guys.

From what I remember of the AHL playoffs last season, Nylander was made a target by opposing teams and was quite easily shut down and made ineffective. The same could be true when he finally hits NHL ice.

I'm not trying to downplay Nylander's accomplishments in the least, but his accomplishments to this point are what they are. AHL level and below. He has not accomplished ANYTHING at the NHL level, and until he does, it's absolutely silly to claim he is better than another player that is actually doing it in the NHL as opposed to the lower level leagues.

Nylander has been outstanding in the AHL this season. But considering how he was easily shutdown in the AHL playoffs last season, that is where I want to see him improve before making the next jump.

3 pts in 5GP is respectable. Playing out of position on smaller ice as an 18 year old? Not the worst performance ever, and to his credit like you said he's really come out strong this year for the Marlies. Here is hoping we have a #1 or #2 centre for the Leafs.

 

[TheLeastOfTheBunch]

When you are done laughing, you will see that Jurco was just named AHL player of the week. He has been and continues to be a very very good AHL player, but he hasn't figured out how to do it at the NHL level.

My point stands. There are plenty of skilled guys who can tear up the AHL, but until they do it on NHL ice, it means very little. Nylander could very well be in the same boat as Jurco and other skilled guys.

From what I remember of the AHL playoffs last season, Nylander was made a target by opposing teams and was quite easily shut down and made ineffective. The same could be true when he finally hits NHL ice.

I'm not trying to downplay Nylander's accomplishments in the least, but his accomplishments to this point are what they are. AHL level and below. He has not accomplished ANYTHING at the NHL level, and until he does, it's absolutely silly to claim he is better than another player that is actually doing it in the NHL as opposed to the lower level leagues.

Nylander has been outstanding in the AHL this season. But considering how he was easily shutdown in the AHL playoffs last season, that is where I want to see him improve before making the next jump.

You literally just posted about comparing Larkin with another freshman NCAA player, and now you're comparing Nylander with a soon-to-be 23 year old Jurco.

Why do I even bother..

 

[TheLeastOfTheBunch]

I've read it numerous times. What point did I miss?

Edited that post, have a read. Maybe you can explain why you are okay with comparing an older Jurco with Nylander, but have a problem with comparing an older NCAA player (like Frattin) to Larkin

 

[Hugh Mongusbig]

You literally just posted about comparing Larkin with another freshman NCAA player, and now you're comparing Nylander with a soon-to-be 23 year old Jurco.

Why do I even bother..

I never meant to compare them. I never meant to compare a 22 yo jurco to a 19 yo old Nylander. Perhaps you assumed I was comparing them. I was just pointing out that AHL success does not automatically equal NHL success. There have been guys who were good in the AHL at any age and yet never made it in the NHL.

 

[obey86]

Yeah, these comparisons to their older Euro prospects lack context, the main issue being that Nylander is doing all this in his draft+1 and +2 years.

You'd think Wings fans wouldn't be making these comparisons, since, without considering age, the amount of NCAA players who have produced like Larkin before, who didn't make much of an impact in the NHL. The Leafs have had a few of those in recent years, including Frattin, Stalberg, and Bozak.

Ok, you win. I'll admit that Dylan Larkin is Matt Frattin 2.0.

 

[TheLeastOfTheBunch]

I never meant to compare them. I never meant to compare a 22 yo jurco to a 19 yo old Nylander. Perhaps you assumed I was comparing them. I was just pointing out that AHL success does not automatically equal NHL success. There have been guys who were good in the AHL at any age and yet never made it in the NHL.

Fair enough, although that can be said about any prospect or young players in the NHL not progressing as expected (like the case of Gagner, who had an impressive rookie year in the NHL, but topped off as a 40ish pt player). It would make for some boring discussions

Ok, you win. I'll admit that Dylan Larkin is Matt Frattin 2.0.

Does that mean Nylander still is Jurco 2.0?

 

[obey86]

Fair enough, although that can be said about any prospect or young players in the NHL not progressing as expected (like the case of Gagner, who had an impressive rookie year in the NHL, but topped off as a 40ish pt player). It would make for some boring discussions



Does that mean Nylander still is Jurco 2.0?

Nylander is a much better prospect and will be a much better player than Jurco.

 

[Hugh Mongusbig]

nylander is a much better prospect and will be a much better player than jurco.

agreed!

 

[obey86]

agreed!

Any reasonable person would agree. Haven't seen or heard anyone say Jurco was or is as good as or better than Nylander as a prospect.

 

[TheLeastOfTheBunch]

Ofcourse you haven't, seems like you have trouble following along. The point brought up before was that Jurco has been producing just as well as Nylander in the AHL, despite being a few years older, but Tomas has yet to crack the NHL as a full-timer. You could replace 'Nylander' with 'Larkin,' 'Jurco' with 'Frattin,' and the 'AHL' with 'NCAA' in that reasoning for last season, but I doubt Wings fans were doing that last year. And they were right in doing so, it makes much more sense to compare Larkin to someone similar in age (or the case of "freshmen" years; Larkin as a freshman vs Toews as a freshman). And the decent difference in age in some of these comparisons is the issue Leaf fans are bringing up here.
Perfectly fine to be skeptical until Nylander starts producing in the NHL, but let's try and be consistent with logic

And before you misunderstand what's being argued again, no, Larkin was a much better prospect and is already the much better player than Matt.

 

[obey86]

Ofcourse you haven't, seems like you have trouble following along. The point brought up before was that Jurco has been producing just as well as Nylander in the AHL, despite being a few years older, but Tomas has yet to crack the NHL as a full-timer. You could replace 'Nylander' with 'Larkin,' 'Jurco' with 'Frattin,' and the 'AHL' with 'NCAA' in that reasoning for last season, but I doubt Wings fans were doing that last year. Perfectly fine to be skeptical until Nylander starts producing in the NHL, but let's try and be consistent with logic here.

And before you misunderstand what's being argued again, no, Larkin was a much better prospect and is already the much better player than Matt.

But your logic doesn't make sense because at this point we aren't projecting anything with Larkin as it comes to his play in the NHL. We've seem him play, we've seen him put up some points, there is zero projection to the NHL happening.


We know Frattin sucked in the NHL despite his college totals. We know Larkin is (thus far) arguably the best player on the Red Wings and is playing very well. If you can't see the difference between projecting an AHL/college player's points to the NHL and looking at what a player is currently doing in the NHL I don't know what to tell you. One is a projection, one is an actuality. If Larkin was currently still in college hockey you may have a point, but he isn't and you don't.