C William Nylander (2014, 8th, TOR) VI

[Semantics]

Funny thing is Nylander's point equivalency would be higher than Larkin's right now.

If he puts up anywhere close to 1.25-3 PPG that would be better than the 40-45 points Larkin will put up.

Nylander is easily more skilled than Larkin. Larkin is the better all round player right now though.

Good point. ES league NHL-equivalence for the AHL is 0.54, so using that ratio Nylander's current pace translates to 58 points over a full NHL season next year.

But also, equivalencies tend to underestimate the lower league, because often you get 1st line AHL players called up and used on the 3rd/4th line in the NHL. Nylander will be getting top six minutes in the NHl though. So it's very realistic to estimate he'll be a 60p+ player.

 

[KGL]

Good point. ES league NHL-equivalence for the AHL is 0.54, so using that ratio Nylander's current pace translates to 58 points over a full NHL season next year.

But also, equivalencies tend to underestimate the lower league, because often you get 1st line AHL players called up and used on the 3rd/4th line in the NHL. Nylander will be getting top six minutes in the NHl though. So it's very realistic to estimate he'll be a 60p+ player.

Where do you find this equivalence chart?

 

[91Kadri91*]

where do you find this equivalence chart?

 

[KGL]

Awesome, thanks.

 

[Semantics]

Where do you find this equivalence chart?

I was using these ratios:

http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.php

 

[nbwingsfan]

Funny thing is Nylander's point equivalency would be higher than Larkin's right now.

If he puts up anywhere close to 1.25-3 PPG that would be better than the 40-45 points Larkin will put up.

Nylander is easily more skilled than Larkin. Larkin is the better all round player right now though.

This would be great if these "point equivalency" charts were always right, but they're not. Bet the charts don't explain how Draisaitl? Or Kadri? What would the equivalencys put Pulkkinen's 61G/109pt pace at this year? Probably no where close to what he will do. How about Forsberg going from 34 points in the Minors to 63 in the NHL?

You guys act like its a guarantee that if Nylander puts up big numbers in the AHL that he will put up 60+ in the NHL next/this season. Even the Leafs wouldn't purposely keep down a 60+pt player in the minors.

 

[Ovate]

You'd want to use ESP/60 instead of just points to get a remotely accurate comparison.

Age and size play a big role too. Younger, bigger players keep more of their production.

And even taking all that into account, there are still giant exceptions.

 

[AuraSphere]

This would be great if these "point equivalency" charts were always right, but they're not. Bet the charts don't explain how Draisaitl? Or Kadri? What would the equivalencys put Pulkkinen's 61G/109pt pace at this year? Probably no where close to what he will do. How about Forsberg going from 34 points in the Minors to 63 in the NHL?

You guys act like its a guarantee that if Nylander puts up big numbers in the AHL that he will put up 60+ in the NHL next/this season. Even the Leafs wouldn't purposely keep down a 60+pt player in the minors.

tbh, it's highly likely. Like calgary fans were hyped about Gaudreau, it's pretty much the same hype. We know he's gonna be good just from the way he played in pre-season and how he's dominating the AHL as a 19 year old.

Take note, we do have high end prospects like Marner and Kapanen... yet still saying Nylander has shown that out of the 3, he's least likely to bust at the NHL level. Idk about 60 poitns, but I wouldn't be surprised if he got 60 lol

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

tbh, it's highly likely. Like calgary fans were hyped about Gaudreau, it's pretty much the same hype. We know he's gonna be good just from the way he played in pre-season and how he's dominating the AHL as a 19 year old.

Take note, we do have high end prospects like Marner and Kapanen... yet still saying Nylander has shown that out of the 3, he's least likely to bust at the NHL level. Idk about 60 poitns, but I wouldn't be surprised if he got 60 lol

Mariner won't bust either assuming he stays healthy

 

[snizzbone*]

Because YES they are both better than Larkin

Just stop. Why are they better? Larkin is doing extremely well in the NHL. You can't just say because Nylander and Marner are dominating lower leagues they will dominate the NHL. What Larkin is doing is very impressive. Why can't all 3 be good to some people?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Just stop. Why are they better? Larkin is doing extremely well in the NHL. You can't just say because Nylander and Marner are dominating lower leagues they will dominate the NHL. What Larkin is doing is very impressive. Why can't all 3 be good to some people?

When did zi say Larkin wasn't good? He is very good I never said he wasn't, I said Nylander and Marner will be better, I never said Larkin wasn't good

 

[snizzbone*]

When did zi say Larkin wasn't good? He is very good I never said he wasn't, I said Nylander and Marner will be better, I never said Larkin wasn't good

Why will Nylander and Marner be better? You can't just say that as fact when it's not. They could be, but that doesn't mean they will be.

 

[Hugh Mongusbig]

+\- doesn't mean a damn thing and have you seen what Nylander and Marner are doing?

Nylander has 23 points in 17 games in the AHL to lead the league in scoring , he is tied for the AHL lead in goals with 10 and if you insist on bringing +\- into this he is +8, he is also 19 and is CLEARLY ready for the NHL NWO but is being kept down in the AHL because the Leafs aren't good and Nylander doesn't need to be in a losing atmosphere right now.

Marner has 39 points in 19 games, and again if you want to bring +\- into this and I don't know why you would it's useless but you did, so OK Marner is +17 he is making the OHL look like a joke, he is WAY to good for OHL but he can't be in the AHL where he should be this year so he is stuck in the OHL next year they will both be in the NHL and it wouldn't shock to see one or both up for Rookie of the year assuming they stay healthy.

Because YES they are both better than Larkin

In his last 7 games played he has 13 points. 1 shy of 2 PPG

I don't think he can score enough to get to 2.0 on season, but I think he can get up to 1.5

Means nothing until he proves he can do it at the NHL level. There are plenty of skill guy who can dominate the AHL and yet struggle in the NHL. Look at guys like Jurco and Pulkkinen for Detroit.

Jurco is currently averaging 2.333 pts/game in the AHL this season, and yet has never been able to break out of 3/4 line grinder role at the NHL level. Yet he apparently seems 'too good' for the AHL.

Good point. ES league NHL-equivalence for the AHL is 0.54, so using that ratio Nylander's current pace translates to 58 points over a full NHL season next year.

Larkin is also on pace for 58 points in the NHL this season. I don't think its fair to say that Nylander is a much better player than Larkin. Until Nylander can do it at the NHL level, its just speculation.

Regardless, what Larkin is doing at the NHL level at 19 is pretty impressive, as is what Nylander is doing in the AHL, also as a 19 yo.

Both Toronto and Detroit should be excited to see these two young guys going head to head within their division for years to come.

Could be two future captains for their clubs.

 

[Stats01]

yeah I tend to agree with a few on here, Larkin right now is the better overall player but Nylander is definitely the most skilled and has the chance to be the better player once he makes the jump to the NHL. That's my opinion, you can't teach the raw ability that Nylander has but you definitely can teach him to become an all around player.

 

[Stats01]

Means nothing until he proves he can do it at the NHL level. There are plenty of skill guy who can dominate the AHL and yet struggle in the NHL. Look at guys like Jurco and Pulkkinen for Detroit.

Jurco is currently averaging 2.333 pts/game in the AHL this season, and yet has never been able to break out of 3/4 line grinder role at the NHL level. Yet he apparently seems 'too good' for the AHL.





Larkin is also on pace for 58 points in the NHL this season. I don't think its fair to say that Nylander is a much better player than Larkin. Until Nylander can do it at the NHL level, its just speculation.

Regardless, what Larkin is doing at the NHL level at 19 is pretty impressive, as is what Nylander is doing in the AHL, also as a 19 yo.

Both Toronto and Detroit should be excited to see these two young guys going head to head within their division for years to come.


Could be two future captains for their clubs.

It's possible, but I see Rielly becoming the Leafs captain down the road.

 

[Holymakinaw]

When did zi say Larkin wasn't good? He is very good I never said he wasn't, I said Nylander and Marner will be better, I never said Larkin wasn't good

That is a ridiculous statement to make. OBVIOUSLY, no one has any idea what will happen and who will be "better" and what "better" even means in the bigger picture.

Save those thoughts for pre-teen boards, okay?

 

[Duke Silver]

Means nothing until he proves he can do it at the NHL level. There are plenty of skill guy who can dominate the AHL and yet struggle in the NHL. Look at guys like Jurco and Pulkkinen for Detroit.

Jurco is currently averaging 2.333 pts/game in the AHL this season, and yet has never been able to break out of 3/4 line grinder role at the NHL level. Yet he apparently seems 'too good' for the AHL.

....in 3 games. Not your best argument.

 

[Hugh Mongusbig]

....in 3 games. Not your best argument.

I realize that, but my point is that there are guys like Jurco who can flat out dominate at AHL level and yet they still struggle putting it together at the NHL level.

Jurco, at 19/20 years of age, was a PPG player at the AHL level while leading his team to a AHL championship. He was then called up/put on the NHL roster, where he has struggled ever since.... The Wings just recently sent him back down down to the AHL for a conditioning stint and he is again dominating play at that level, scoring 7 points in 3 games at the AHL level since then.

AHL success does not automatically translate into NHL success, that's all I'm saying, and Jurco is a prime example of that.

 

[Tiranis]

I realize that, but my point is that there are guys like Jurco who can flat out dominate at AHL level and yet they still struggle putting it together at the NHL level.

Jurco, at 19/20 years of age, was a PPG player at the AHL level while leading his team to a AHL championship. He was then called up/put on the NHL roster, where he has struggled ever since.... The Wings just recently sent him back down down to the AHL for a conditioning stint and he is again dominating play at that level, scoring 7 points in 3 games at the AHL level since then.

AHL success does not automatically translate into NHL success, that's all I'm saying, and Jurco is a prime example of that.

Jurco didn't even play in the AHL until he turned 20 and then put up 28 points in 72 games. This is a horrible comparison.

 

[vippe]

I realize that, but my point is that there are guys like Jurco who can flat out dominate at AHL level and yet they still struggle putting it together at the NHL level.

Jurco, at 19/20 years of age, was a PPG player at the AHL level while leading his team to a AHL championship. He was then called up/put on the NHL roster, where he has struggled ever since.... The Wings just recently sent him back down down to the AHL for a conditioning stint and he is again dominating play at that level, scoring 7 points in 3 games at the AHL level since then.

AHL success does not automatically translate into NHL success, that's all I'm saying, and Jurco is a prime example of that.

Jurco had 28 points in 74 games as a 19-20 year old. Was 6th in scoring on his team in the post season. Your definition on PPG player and leading his team to a championship is a bit off I'd say.

 

[Hugh Mongusbig]

Jurco had 28 points in 74 games as a 19-20 year old. Was 6th in scoring on his team in the post season. Your definition on PPG player and leading his team to a championship is a bit off I'd say.

Yeah, I was going from memory, which apparently isn't too good.

It was the season after winning the Calder Cup that Jurco was PPG in the AHL. In the season that they did win the Calder Cup, he led all rookies with playoff goals (8) on the way to winning the Calder Cup. The next season, he was PPG before being called up to Detroit.
My point is that Jurco was a very good, and apparently still is, a very good AHL player. but he has yet to have any of that success translate to the NHL level.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Funny thing is Nylander's point equivalency would be higher than Larkin's right now.

If he puts up anywhere close to 1.25-3 PPG that would be better than the 40-45 points Larkin will put up.

Nylander is easily more skilled than Larkin. Larkin is the better all round player right now though.

So let's summarize:

* Take Nylander's current's point-pace in the AHL
* Use sketchy, unreliable point-equivalency chart to convert to NHL production
* Assume he would keep that pace the full season in the NHL
* Meanwhile, assume Larkin will drop off his current pace of actual NHL production
* Thus, conclude that Nylander would outproduce Larkin this season in the NHL.

 

[Holymakinaw]

So let's summarize:

* Take Nylander's current's point-pace in the AHL
* Use sketchy, unreliable point-equivalency chart to convert to NHL production
* Assume he would keep that pace the full season in the NHL
* Meanwhile, assume Larkin will drop off his current pace of actual NHL production
* Thus, conclude that Nylander would outproduce Larkin this season in the NHL.

I know.

What is wrong with people? Can't Nylander be appreciated for what he's doing, and Larkin too?

Dylan Larkin is an AMAZING young player who will get some Calder consideration, if he keeps this great play up. He's a 19 year old who is excelling against/among grown men. That's not a slight against Nylander. But the FACT is, that Larkin is ahead of Willie at this stage of the game. It's the truth, Ruth.

I suspect that we'll be hearing tons about BOTH of them for the next 20 years.

Enjoy that, you silly fans.

 

[Tatar Shots]

Good point. ES league NHL-equivalence for the AHL is 0.54, so using that ratio Nylander's current pace translates to 58 points over a full NHL season next year.

But also, equivalencies tend to underestimate the lower league, because often you get 1st line AHL players called up and used on the 3rd/4th line in the NHL. Nylander will be getting top six minutes in the NHl though. So it's very realistic to estimate he'll be a 60p+ player.

I don't think this is fair to say. This compares him to other 19 year olds who tore up the AHL. I'm assuming that those players would also have been put into an offensive role. Also, where are people finding ES AHL points? I'm curious because I can't seem to find anything but PP goals. Was looking for this last week and was annoyed I couldn't find it.

Edit: just went through game by game and saw that Nylander has 7 PP points. If my understanding and the math is right, this would put him at 33.6 ES points. I used the .47 equivalency that 91Kadri91 posted. Is this the correct way to calculate equivalency?

Edit 2: Apparently the .47 is not used for 19 year olds and instead you use 0.65. This would put Nylander at 46.5 ES points. This looks more right to me.

 

[Ovate]

I don't think this is fair to say. This compares him to other 19 year olds who tore up the AHL. I'm assuming that those players would also have been put into an offensive role. Also, where are people finding ES AHL points? I'm curious because I can't seem to find anything but PP goals. Was looking for this last week and was annoyed I couldn't find it.

Edit: just went through game by game and saw that Nylander has 7 PP points. If my understanding and the math is right, this would put him at 33.6 ES points. I used the .47 equivalency that 91Kadri91 posted. Is this the correct way to calculate equivalency?

Edit 2: Apparently the .47 is not used for 19 year olds and instead you use 0.65. This would put Nylander at 46.5 ES points. This looks more right to me.

If you're interested in more AHL (and CHL stats), http://chlstats.pythonanywhere.com/ is a good resource.