Even if you take out the 4 point game he's scoring at a 1.4 pace in November and a 1.15 on the season. and he has tended to improve by the month down there. But i do agree projecting stats after an abnormal game production wise will yield crazy results.
C William Nylander (2014, 8th, TOR) VI
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HarrisonFord
President of the Drew Doughty Fan Club
LOL "BUT IF YOU TAKE OUT THE GAME WHERE HE GOT POINTS THEN HE'S GOT LESS POINTS!!!!!!"
good stuff man!
Pavels Dog
Registered User
Eh, a 9-8 score is pretty abnormal so he has a point.
That said there's nothing too crazy about his pace. He has the skill to dominate the AHL. I could see him sustaining a 100-point pace. Pulkkinen did it last year and he's not half the talent Nylander is.
HarrisonFord
President of the Drew Doughty Fan Club
That doesn't mean you should disregard the points in that game that he got. He was the primary assist on 3 of those 8 Marlies goals, and scored one so arguably that 9-8 game would not have been as abnormal without Nylander. There were 33 other players in that game who didn't post 4 points. Scoring production doesn't work the way that the poster I quoted was trying to spin
Pavels Dog
Registered User
Agreed, you don't disregard the points. It's just that the 'pace' can become a bit skewed by a high-scoring game early in the season. Kinda like how Draisatl is on a 130+ point pace in the NHL. I have more faith in Nylander keeping up his torrid pace in the AHL though.
Semantics
PUBLIC ENEMY #1
But his stats are also clearly deflated by getting 0 points in back to back one goal games. Instead of a 1.1-1.15 pace, maybe 1.36-1.4 is reasonable (which is still fantastic).
HarrisonFord
President of the Drew Doughty Fan Club
One goal games will happen a bunch more times throughout the season. 9 goal games will not.
leafsfuture
Registered User
- Mar 30, 2008
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This is no different than the people who try and deflate Seguins point totals because Seguin has a lot of high point games. Its just nit picking
I'm not trying to deflate Nylander's point totals. I'm saying that high point games can inflate a players pace in a small sample size, and that making 100+ point predictions based on 14 games is probably inaccurate.
That's the difference between having a lot high point games, like Seguin, and having a single high point game in a small sample, like Nylander now.
Sting
Registered User
- Feb 8, 2004
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I was thinking more in terms of size/skillset. Nylander has a better shot but otherwise they play a similar game.
Semantics
PUBLIC ENEMY #1
Is your crystal ball SURE of that? They had an 8 goal game just a couple of weeks ago and that was without Arcobello.
Leafs at Knight
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Do you think the Marlies will continue at their 4.13 GF/G pace?
I want them to do well, I just don't think that's realistic.
Apotheosis
Registered User
He was above PPG even before this. And this is without two of the best wingers on the team (Brown and Kapanen). If anything, this might continue (his scoring pace) once they come back. Him and Leivo are playing absolutely amazing. Add those two and there's nothing to stop him from cracking 100 points. And his point totals isn't from some inflated shooting percentage. The kid does something on the ice every time he's on there. He has a killer wrist shot, obscene speed and great vision. Those are the kinds of guys you bet on to score 100 points in a season.
Apotheosis
Registered User
Again, you're looking at it from a pure stats perspective. THIS IS WITHOUT BROWN AND KAPANEN. They have the best offence in the entire league. Bar none.
Semantics
PUBLIC ENEMY #1
Sure, why not? The Hershey Bears had 4.25 GF/G a few years ago. They might even increase the pace if Arcobello stays with the team and Brown and Kapanen get healthy.
But even if they fall off a bit, a couple more 8-9 goal games is not impossible.
EXTRAS
Registered User
- Jul 31, 2012
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I'm not a Toronto fan. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Marlies have a few seriously high scoring games this season. Why? Because the Marlies just added Mark Arcobello to Nylander/Brown/Kapanen. He may be the most serious contender to Nylander to win the AHL scoring title.
The last time Mark Arcobello was in the AHL in 2013-14 he had 28 points in 15 games. He already has 6 goals and 10 points in 6 games this season. The guy is a serious AHL scoring talent. Its a shame he hasnt been able to translate it to the NHL.
So yeah, if Arcobello and Nylander spend a large portion of the season on the same line, i could see Nylander putting up 100 points.
67Cup
Registered User
- Sep 16, 2005
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Ppg can be skewed especially early in a season, by a vary high scoring game or two. But over a season there are both games with no points and very productive games. You expect a good player to have some of the latter. Of course they should count too.
Leafidelity
Existentially Drifting
Canada4Gold
Registered User
- Dec 22, 2010
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They're both centers so I doubt they see any time on the ice together except on the PP(which I think they're both on the top PP now)
As far as Nylander's pace goes, he's pretty much scoring at a better pace each month
January 15: 1+1 for 2 points in 4 games = 0.50 ppg
February 15: 2+5 for 7 points in 12 games = 0.58 ppg
March 15: 5+5 for 10 points in 11 games = 0.91 ppg
April 15: 6+7 for 13 points in 10 games = 1.30 ppg
Playoffs 15: 0+3 for 3 points in 5 games = 0.60 ppg
October 15: 5+3 for 8 points in 8 games = 1.00 ppg
November 15: 3+8 for 11 points in 6 games = 1.83 ppg
Grouping the playoffs in with April(much of the playoffs were in April) he's 1 point above ppg then so it's almost a increase across the board.
If we take out the 4 point game Saturday he's still 7 in 5 for a 1.4 this month.
45 points in his last 40 games and he's been improving as we go. I don't think it's unreasonable for him to get 100 if he plays the entire 76 games. Should we go expecting it? No, especially with the likelyhood of the WJC or getting called up, but I wouldn't be surprised if it happens
BayStreetBully
Registered User
You're absolutely right. Who uses "on pace for" after a 4 point night on the 14th game of the year? It's like using "on pace for" after an 8 point night on the 10th game of the year. Both are meaningless.
Nylander is playing fantastic, but let's not conveniently forget he was "on pace for" 81 points one game ago. And what is wrong with 81 points? I'd be ecstatic if he ends up with 81 points at the end of the season and if he learns a two-way game.
WTFMAN99
Registered User
- Jun 17, 2009
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Nice skating and nice shot. The thing that is funny to me is a lot of people mention his speed and how fast he is, but that edge work is something pretty. It really gets him into a position where he is able to utilize his shot.
KGL
Auston 3:16
- Sep 5, 2014
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