C Will Smith - Boston College, NCAA (2023, 4th, SJS)

[Monk]

Do you have proof that CBJ management is not considering Smith as a local boy under the highlighted context?

I rest my case

Let me try to help you out here one more time. If what you're trying to say is "If CBJ consider Carlsson and Smith to literally be equal prospects in terms of hockey qualities, they might favor the American over the Swede" then you'd perhaps be more accurate. That being said, they're not literally equal prospects and there isn't really much fear that a Swedish prospect wouldn't come over, so CBJ will just take whichever prospect they view as being better. It's effectively irrelevant.

Also, if that IS what you're trying to say, then take this English lesson to heart and stop using 'local' the way you're using it. A dozen North American English speakers in here just tried to explain to you why the way you're using it is inaccurate & confusing and you just keep throwing it out there with hostility

 

[Bombshell11]

Let me try to help you out here one more time. If what you're trying to say is "If CBJ consider Carlsson and Smith to literally be equal prospects in terms of hockey qualities, they might favor the American over the Swede" then you'd perhaps be more accurate. That being said, they're not literally equal prospects and there isn't really much fear that a Swedish prospect wouldn't come over, so CBJ will just take whichever prospect they view as being better. It's effectively irrelevant.

Also, if that IS what you're trying to say, then take this English lesson to heart and stop using 'local' the way you're using it. A dozen North American English speakers in here just tried to explain to you why the way you're using it is inaccurate & confusing and you just keep throwing it out there with hostility

local is a relative term and at scale local can also mean a country, a planet, a system.

I did not use it as an american but rather as an international person speaking at an international level.

Ask any english teacher you want, i dare you

Yes, because they aren't crazy people.

You said "If columbus doesn't see a fellow american as a local kid under the context of having to draft a swede or a russian, then i think it underlines some fundamental issues with america."

So either it's "I'm right" or "there a fundamental issue with America".

That wont hold in court

 

[Bombshell11]

So about Will Smith, since this is the topic. It's not 100% given that Anaheim will pick Fantelli, they might go with Michkov. Therefore CBJ might go with Fantelli and SJ with Smith.

 

[Postulates]

I think the Blue Jackets will pick the local boy Leo Carlsson, who is local to the planet earth. They are biased against prospects from the planet Jupiter.

why do that when a vastly superior prospect exists in their backyard (ntdp is located in michigan which borders ohio! )

 

[Kennerback]

Do you pick a complete center or an offensive juggernaut? I think it’ll be Carlsson because there’s little risk involved and he’ll quickly be a star in the NHL.

 

[SlafySZN]

This kid is gonna be a star.

 

[RedHawkDown]

this kid is the most loco one in the gang

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Do you pick a complete center or an offensive juggernaut? I think it’ll be Carlsson because there’s little risk involved and he’ll quickly be a star in the NHL.

Who is the offensive juggernaut here? Bedard? Because there isn’t a single thing Smith does better than Carlsson.

 

[Postulates]

Who is the offensive juggernaut here? Bedard? Because there isn’t a single thing Smith does better than Carlsson.

Skate
Shoot
Pass
Hockey IQ

There isn't a single thing Carlsson does better than Smith except be taller

 

[majormajor]

Skate
Shoot
Pass
Hockey IQ

There isn't a single thing Carlsson does better than Smith except be taller

My guess is that if Smith was playing vs grown men (SHL or Worlds) he would show pretty much zero skill advantage over Carlsson. I'm not sure though, it is an interesting question.

 

[stevo61]

Skate
Shoot
Pass
Hockey IQ

There isn't a single thing Carlsson does better than Smith except be taller

Id give you shoot and then the rest is a no or even at best

 

[Baksfamous112]

So about Will Smith, since this is the topic. It's not 100% given that Anaheim will pick Fantelli, they might go with Michkov. Therefore CBJ might go with Fantelli and SJ with Smith.

I can’t imagine how Anaheim fans would feel if they took Michkov over Fantilli.

 

[SlafySZN]

My guess is that if Smith was playing vs grown men (SHL or Worlds) he would show pretty much zero skill advantage over Carlsson. I'm not sure though, it is an interesting question.

I think he would. He’s just not as developed physically as much as Carlsson right now, that would be the difference.

 

[Juxtaposer]

My guess is that if Smith was playing vs grown men (SHL or Worlds) he would show pretty much zero skill advantage over Carlsson. I'm not sure though, it is an interesting question.

Who cares what he would look like now. I do think Smith would struggle against men right now because of his physicality. Carlsson is the most physically developed of all the top-5 prospects (for all the “Fantilli is a grown man” comments, he’s actually quite skinny). Carlsson is certainly without a doubt more effective now. But drafting an NHL prospects is about more than what the prospect is at 18, it’s about projection.

I think the Carlsson vs. Smith debate is an interesting one. I would certainly take Carlsson ahead as it is, but I certainly see why a person might have Smith higher.

Smith has such a good offensive brain, the best in the draft after Bedard and Michkov. He’s so good at seeing all the ways a play can develop and executing what he thinks is the best one. I think as he matures he’ll develop a better sense of what the optimal play is in any situation, but he definitely has a degree of offensive thinking that both Fantilli and Carlsson lack. Both of them can be a little one-dimensional at times in terms of how they behave with the puck on their stick, whereas you never know what Smith is going to do next.

I think an interesting question becomes, if Carlsson were 6’0” like Smith (or Smith were 6’3” like Carlsson), how would the general consensus see them? I think Carlsson is the better straight ahead skater by a decent margin while Smith is the more elusive skater. Both have excellent hands, but it’s hard to judge who is more successful at dangling because of the disparity in league strengths (Smith dangles more successfully, but Carlsson plays against much better defenders and has shown some degree of success dangling them). Smith has a much better shot. Playmaking and passing are a wash (Smith is more deceptive and has a greater success rate of “elite” passes, but Carlsson is better at making the textbook “right” pass and is somewhat less prone to turnovers). Carlsson is better defensively, but even while playing center at the WC he still kind of defends like a stereotypical winger; good positionally, solid at retrieving, a little prone to blowing the zone for offense especially at the U20 level. Neither have high motors or a high level of activity off the puck (Carlsson is a little better, but nowhere near the golden standard of Benson). Carlsson has proven that he can execute average NHL level plays against men; Smith has proven he can execute elite talent-level plays against his own age group. Truly, I think this could go either way, though I think most of us are a little risk-adverse and would (I think rightly) prefer the certainty of Carlsson.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Skate
Shoot
Pass
Hockey IQ

There isn't a single thing Carlsson does better than Smith except be taller

Flat out false but ok.

Ive watched Carlsson in Orebro at at the Hlinka since 2021. I’ve also watched close to 20 NTDP games and the WJC U18s this year.

Skating? About equal
Shot? Carlsson by a mile
Pass? Carlsson by a little bit
Hockey IQ? Carlsson by a mile

This is the difference between a prospect that would go 1st in average years and in the debate in strong years (Carlsson) and a guy that would be 4th in bad years. (Smith)

 

[DatDude44]

Skate
Shoot
Pass
Hockey IQ

There isn't a single thing Carlsson does better than Smith except be taller

Carlsson’s overall game, size/skating combination is better. His overall hockey IQ, play away from the puck, defensive game, 50/50 puck battle ability is all miles ahead.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Flat out false but ok.

Ive watched Carlsson in Orebro at at the Hlinka since 2021. I’ve also watched close to 20 NTDP games and the WJC U18s this year.

Skating? About equal
Shot? Carlsson by a mile
Pass? Carlsson by a little bit
Hockey IQ? Carlsson by a mile

This is the difference between a prospect that would go 1st in average years and in the debate in strong years (Carlsson) and a guy that would be 4th in bad years. (Smith)

Saying Carlsson’s shot is better than Smith’s, never mind “by a mile”, is one of many reasons I don’t quite trust your assessment here.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Saying Carlsson’s shot is better than Smith’s, never mind “by a mile”, is one of many reasons I don’t quite trust your assessment here.

Smith scoring on USHL goalies with a wrist shot from just inside the blue line doesn’t mean his shot is superior. It means he’s facing bad goaltending.

 

[majormajor]

Who cares what he would look like now. I do think Smith would struggle against men right now because of his physicality. Carlsson is the most physically developed of all the top-5 prospects (for all the “Fantilli is a grown man” comments, he’s actually quite skinny). Carlsson is certainly without a doubt more effective now. But drafting an NHL prospects is about more than what the prospect is at 18, it’s about projection.

I think the Carlsson vs. Smith debate is an interesting one. I would certainly take Carlsson ahead as it is, but I certainly see why a person might have Smith higher.

Smith has such a good offensive brain, the best in the draft after Bedard and Michkov. He’s so good at seeing all the ways a play can develop and executing what he thinks is the best one. I think as he matures he’ll develop a better sense of what the optimal play is in any situation, but he definitely has a degree of offensive thinking that both Fantilli and Carlsson lack. Both of them can be a little one-dimensional at times in terms of how they behave with the puck on their stick, whereas you never know what Smith is going to do next.

I think an interesting question becomes, if Carlsson were 6’0” like Smith (or Smith were 6’3” like Carlsson), how would the general consensus see them? I think Carlsson is the better straight ahead skater by a decent margin while Smith is the more elusive skater. Both have excellent hands, but it’s hard to judge who is more successful at dangling because of the disparity in league strengths (Smith dangles more successfully, but Carlsson plays against much better defenders and has shown some degree of success dangling them). Smith has a much better shot. Playmaking and passing are a wash (Smith is more deceptive and has a greater success rate of “elite” passes, but Carlsson is better at making the textbook “right” pass and is somewhat less prone to turnovers). Carlsson is better defensively, but even while playing center at the WC he still kind of defends like a stereotypical winger; good positionally, solid at retrieving, a little prone to blowing the zone for offense especially at the U20 level. Neither have high motors or a high level of activity off the puck (Carlsson is a little better, but nowhere near the golden standard of Benson). Carlsson has proven that he can execute average NHL level plays against men; Smith has proven he can execute elite talent-level plays against his own age group. Truly, I think this could go either way, though I think most of us are a little risk-adverse and would (I think rightly) prefer the certainty of Carlsson.

Obviously we're interested in what they would look like in five years (I don't know why you doubted me on that). But as part of that debate it's sometimes good to wonder what our current evidence (their current play) would look like on a level playing field.

And my bigger point is that it's hard to tell how the offensive brain would look at more difficult levels. It's not just the specter of Smith getting physically shut down, but defenders are less likely to buy fakes, and less likely to leave a pass option available. Instead of having 2, 3, or 4 rich options at the USHL level, you have 0, or maybe 1 vs pros. And Smith already turns the puck over significantly more than Carlsson in their current leagues. Smith might occasionally look like a poor decision maker if he was at that level.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Smith scoring on USHL goalies with a wrist shot from just inside the blue line doesn’t mean his shot is superior. It means he’s facing bad goaltending.

I’m not saying his shot is better because he has more goals, I’m saying his shot is better because it’s better. Carlsson’s shot is easily one of his weak points and Smith’s is a strength.

Are we going to suggest that Bedard’s shot is bad because he’s only ever faced junior goaltenders? Give your head a shake.

Obviously we're interested in what they would look like in five years (I don't know why you doubted me on that). But as part of that debate it's sometimes good to wonder what our current evidence (their current play) would look like on a level playing field.

And my bigger point is that it's hard to tell how the offensive brain would look at more difficult levels. It's not just the specter of Smith getting physically shut down, but defenders are less likely to buy fakes, and less likely to leave a pass option available. Instead of having 2, 3, or 4 rich options at the USHL level, you have 0, or maybe 1 vs pros. And Smith already turns the puck over significantly more than Carlsson in their current leagues. Smith might occasionally look like a poor decision maker if he was at that level.

I guess the difference between you and I is that I think Smith has the smarts to figure it out. I’m not saying that he doesn’t have some pretty glaring weaknesses, but I buy into the idea that Smith’s smarts and creativity will pull through. I understand if some don’t, but there’s so much Smith-bashing around here that it gets pretty frustrating to read. Carlsson, too, can be prone to turnovers; I think he telegraphs his cross-ice passes far too much and he’ll get picked off at the NHL level if he doesn’t improve. With Smith, I get the feeling that he’s trying things against USHL/NCAA/U18 teams just to see what he can do. I love seeing a player stretch his limits in low-stakes games (which is something that I love about Carlsson as well—he tries things with the puck even in a conservative league like the SHL that, even when they aren’t successful, show his thought process in a very encouraging way). For example, Smith tightened up his game considerably in the gold medal game against the Swedish U18. I don’t think anyone would claim that it was his best game, but he really did cut down on turnovers by playing more conservatively, which shows me that he knows he won’t be able to get away with some of the Harlem Globetrotters stuff that Leonard-Smith-Perreault got away with even against good NCAA teams.

I think Carlsson vs. Smith against men now would look pretty similar to Kaako vs. Hughes in 2019. I’m not at all saying that Carlsson will be Kakko and Smith with be Hughes, but rather that having a pro-ready body is a big deal at this age against men. There were a lot of questions whether Hughes would be able to do everything against adults in the NHL, and it took him a year to figure it out. I think Smith will have a similar adjustment period. I think Carlsson will play one more developmental year in the SHL and then come in and score 50 points in his rookie year. I think Smith will play one (or maybe two) years in the NCAA, have a very up and down rookie season (like Hughes or Kent Johnson), and then figure it out in his draft+3/4 season.

In the end, I still prefer Carlsson, but I do see a world where Smith ends up the better player.

 

[Michoulicious]

I’m not saying his shot is better because he has more goals, I’m saying his shot is better because it’s better. Carlsson’s shot is easily one of his weak points and Smith’s is a strength.

Are we going to suggest that Bedard’s shot is bad because he’s only ever faced junior goaltenders? Give your head a shake.

I guess the difference between you and I is that I think Smith has the smarts to figure it out. I’m not saying that he doesn’t have some pretty glaring weaknesses, but I buy into the idea that Smith’s smarts and creativity will pull through. I understand if some don’t, but there’s so much Smith-bashing around here that it gets pretty frustrating to read. Carlsson, too, can be prone to turnovers; I think he telegraphs his cross-ice passes far too much and he’ll get picked off at the NHL level if he doesn’t improve. With Smith, I get the feeling that he’s trying things against USHL/NCAA/U18 teams just to see what he can do. I love seeing a player stretch his limits in low-stakes games (which is something that I love about Carlsson as well—he tries things with the puck even in a conservative league like the SHL that, even when they aren’t successful, show his thought process in a very encouraging way). For example, Smith tightened up his game considerably in the gold medal game against the Swedish U18. I don’t think anyone would claim that it was his best game, but he really did cut down on turnovers by playing more conservatively, which shows me that he knows he won’t be able to get away with some of the Harlem Globetrotters stuff that Leonard-Smith-Perreault got away with even against good NCAA teams.

I think Carlsson vs. Smith against men now would look pretty similar to Kaako vs. Hughes in 2019. I’m not at all saying that Carlsson will be Kakko and Smith with be Hughes, but rather that having a pro-ready body is a big deal at this age against men. There were a lot of questions whether Hughes would be able to do everything against adults in the NHL, and it took him a year to figure it out. I think Smith will have a similar adjustment period. I think Carlsson will play one more developmental year in the SHL and then come in and score 50 points in his rookie year. I think Smith will play one (or maybe two) years in the NCAA, have a very up and down rookie season (like Hughes or Kent Johnson), and then figure it out in his draft+3/4 season.

In the end, I still prefer Carlsson, but I do see a world where Smith ends up the better player.

Really like your take.

I agree with most of it.

I personnally think Will Smith's talent and smarts will let him adapt to the NHL. He already knows some things he could pull off in the program won't work in the NHL.

His offensive talent and vision are off the charts. Way higher than Carlsson's. He also has a better shot. He does not use it enough IMO. Better hands as well. Better deception, better 1 on 1 moves.

Carlsson is bigger and more NHL ready. He'll make an impact sooner. He's the most "sure thing". Smith has the potential to be a top point producer in the NHL eventually. I don't see that in Carlsson.

 

[Postulates]

Carlsson’s overall game, size/skating combination is better. His overall hockey IQ, play away from the puck, defensive game, 50/50 puck battle ability is all miles ahead.

it just isnt

 

[DatDude44]

it just isnt

Smith has the worst off the puck habits of any player in the draft that I’ve studied thoroughly.

That said he’s a phenomenal talent and should improve in those areas as he matures as a player. But rn he does nothing to help his team when he’s on the ice outside of rush opportunities with the puck on his stick.

 

[ZDH]

Wouldnt be shocked at all if Moore is a better pro than Smith. Carlsson over Smith every day and twice on Sunday.

 

[Postulates]

taking the future 100 pt center over the future 70 pt winger any day of the week