C/W Brad Lambert (2022, 30th, WPG) Part 3

[Realgud]

If Lambert becomes a star then I am never going to watch Liiga for scouting purposes again. Success or lack of success in that league seems to tell you very little about how players will perform in the North American game. It is supposedly more NA than other Euro leagues, the rink size is halfway in between, but the style of play is still very different. A lot of the top scorers are just volume shooters that don't have much skill and might struggle in the AHL.

It seems to me like your definition of "success" is based on stats here. Lambert, individually, showed tons of promise in the Liiga. That's exactly why scouting is important.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

He was already trending down before 2021-2022 season.

Huh? He was widely regarded as a top 3 pick before the season started. McKenzie still had him at 11 in his mid-season rankings.

The only reason he fell is because scouts didn't realize how poorly suited his game was for Liga vs how well it's suited for the NHL. Ironically, they seemed to give Slafkovsky the benefit of the doubt.

Him falling to 30 was monumentally stupid.

 

[ijuka]

It is interesting how Lambert's poor Liiga season had him fall all the waydown to #30 OA. I think that Lambert's easily the most technically gifted player of the draft, especially in terms of skating. He could be expected to improve faster than most of his competition, and I feel that the faster and more straightforward North American play style should allow Lambert avoid getting into the kinds of situations that cause him to get in trouble.

Lambert clearly is more of a rush type player than boardwork type player, and rush type players are doing quite well in NHL(The best example being McDavid, of course). The archetype doesn't really work in Liiga, which is dominated by grinders. I think I already said it last season, but I think that for Lambert, a fast counter attacking style would work very well. Either that, or active forechecking and disruption. Anything other than Liiga's boring dead puck era grinder hockey.

Also, the reason it's said that Liiga's closest to North American hockey is because of how much it is about grinding and boardwork. It's also the most physical European league, pretty much. But perhaps that comparison is a bit outdated, since North American hockey is moving more and more towards fast rushes and counter attacks. It's more like dead puck era North American hockey than today's North American hockey.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

It is interesting how Lambert's poor Liiga season had him fall all the waydown to #30 OA. I think that Lambert's easily the most technically gifted player of the draft, especially in terms of skating. He could be expected to improve faster than most of his competition, and I feel that the faster and more straightforward North American play style should allow Lambert avoid getting into the kinds of situations that cause him to get in trouble.

Lambert clearly is more of a rush type player than boardwork type player, and rush type players are doing quite well in NHL(The best example being McDavid, of course). The archetype doesn't really work in Liiga, which is dominated by grinders. I think I already said it last season, but I think that for Lambert, a fast counter attacking style would work very well. Either that, or active forechecking and disruption. Anything other than Liiga's boring dead puck era grinder hockey.

Also, the reason it's said that Liiga's closest to North American hockey is because of how much it is about grinding and boardwork. It's also the most physical European league, pretty much. But perhaps that comparison is a bit outdated, since North American hockey is moving more and more towards fast rushes and counter attacks. It's more like dead puck era North American hockey than today's North American hockey.

I the stylistic thing is very real. Look at Jesper Bratt. Struggled much more than Lambert playing in Sweden and then came over and was an impact player immediately. Bratt's PPG as a 18 year old in Allsvenskan was slightly below his PPG in the NHL as a 19 year old, which is pretty outrageous...

I expect to see similar things from Lambert, as they have a lot in common stylistically.

 

[Jukurit]

7g 8a in 46 games in a pro league as a 16 year old is trending down. sure it is. meanwhile 7g 10a in 49 games as a 17 year old in the same league got slaf 1st overall.

Slaf got drafted 1st overall because of his play with Slovak NT.

Huh? He was widely regarded as a top 3 pick before the season started. McKenzie still had him at 11 in his mid-season rankings.

The only reason he fell is because scouts didn't realize how poorly suited his game was for Liga vs how well it's suited for the NHL. Ironically, they seemed to give Slafkovsky the benefit of the doubt.

Him falling to 30 was monumentally stupid.

Signs where already there at the start of the season that he was going to fall in rankings. Poor previous Liiga season. Underwhelming U18s. Underwhelming WJSS.

 

[Jukurit]

It is interesting how Lambert's poor Liiga season had him fall all the waydown to #30 OA. I think that Lambert's easily the most technically gifted player of the draft, especially in terms of skating. He could be expected to improve faster than most of his competition, and I feel that the faster and more straightforward North American play style should allow Lambert avoid getting into the kinds of situations that cause him to get in trouble.

Lambert clearly is more of a rush type player than boardwork type player, and rush type players are doing quite well in NHL(The best example being McDavid, of course). The archetype doesn't really work in Liiga, which is dominated by grinders. I think I already said it last season, but I think that for Lambert, a fast counter attacking style would work very well. Either that, or active forechecking and disruption. Anything other than Liiga's boring dead puck era grinder hockey.

Also, the reason it's said that Liiga's closest to North American hockey is because of how much it is about grinding and boardwork. It's also the most physical European league, pretty much. But perhaps that comparison is a bit outdated, since North American hockey is moving more and more towards fast rushes and counter attacks. It's more like dead puck era North American hockey than today's North American hockey.

Good example of this is also probably Kakko. Beast in Liiga. Can't do much (so far) in NHL.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Signs where already there at the start of the season that he was going to fall in rankings. Poor previous Liiga season. Underwhelming U18s. Underwhelming WJSS.

15 points in 46gp is poor for a 16 year old in Liga? Rantanen had 9p in 37gp at that age...

And he had 5p in 5gp at the U18, again, as a 16 year old. How is that underwhelming?

 

[Jukurit]

15 points in 46gp is poor for a 16 year old in Liga? Rantanen had 9p in 37gp at that age...

And he had 5p in 5gp at the U18, again, as a 16 year old. How is that underwhelming?

Because of all the bad plays he makes.

 

[ORRFForever]

It's one of the unfortunate parts of being so good so early. (Hockey) People tend to rush you along. Maybe he needed more time at a lower level?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Because of all the bad plays he makes.

16 year olds make mistakes. Scouts care about the good plays a player can make, and Lambert was making a lot of good plays at 16.

If there were signs he was falling it would have shown in the rankings, and it did not.

 

[ijuka]

Good example of this is also probably Kakko. Beast in Liiga. Can't do much (so far) in NHL.

Yeah, Liiga was great for Kakko's play style but NHL game's been too fast for him. Also think he could have used more time to develop but oh well.

Because of all the bad plays he makes.

While that's true, his technical fundamental are so high that he can improve and learn to deal with them more easily than a player without such tools.

 

[BoneDocUK]

Yeah, Liiga was great for Kakko's play style but NHL game's been too fast for him. Also think he could have used more time to develop but oh well.

While that's true, his technical fundamental are so high that he can improve and learn to deal with them more easily than a player without such tools.

Well said. In that respect he reminds me of Ehlers — and an Ehlers 2.0 or even Ehlers-lite is a big win for the Jets.

 

[WolfgangPuck]

So this player has yet to sign with the Jets. Does he go to WHL or back to Europe if he doesn’t sign a contract with the team?

 

[dem]

Brad Lambert is exactly what people mean when they talk about being over scouted.

 

[Szechwan]

This is a pretty fascinating case study in scouting actually.

If I recall correctly, Scouching had him in the top 5 based on his scouting metrics.

Still extremely early, and there have been plenty of prospects that look great in preseason and fizzle otherwise. Very interested to watch how he progresses. This year's Raty by the looks of it so far.

 

[Colezuki]

7g 8a in 46 games in a pro league as a 16 year old is trending down. sure it is. meanwhile 7g 10a in 49 games as a 17 year old in the same league got slaf 1st overall.

Except that’s a bit disingenuous slafs production was trending up near the end of the season and his production at the WC and Olympics were sighted as a big part of the reason he went so high

on lambert, it strikes me of that quote McGuire talks about from al Murray all the time. “At 16 we see only the positives and at 17 we see only what they don’t have”. This could be a case of over scouting with lambert and he could’ve been better suited to NA ice then European ice surfaces. If he makes the team then will see as preseason gets tougher and tougher the further in it goes

 

[Jukurit]

Brad Lambert is exactly what people mean when they talk about being over scouted.

What does it mean to be over scouted?

 

[Kennerback]

He looks really good but I think he also looked good in Finland until he couldn’t sustain production? Time will tell. But an interesting case.

 

[larmex99]

What does it mean to be over scouted?

That is when every nuance of a prospect’s game is analyzed and reanalyzed by multiple scouts until it is only the nuances that are highlighted and the overall play of the prospect becomes secondary. Well, that is my opinion anyhow….

 

[GermanSpitfire]

That is when every nuance of a prospect’s game is analyzed and reanalyzed by multiple scouts until it is only the nuances that are highlighted and the overall play of the prospect becomes secondary. Well, that is my opinion anyhow….

Excellent post - well put

 

[dss97]

I don’t recall him getting on the score sheet when I watched him play the Oilers but he stood out for me. He can skate and has pretty good puck skills

 

[Our Lady Peace]

This is a pretty fascinating case study in scouting actually.

If I recall correctly, Scouching had him in the top 5 based on his scouting metrics.

Still extremely early, and there have been plenty of prospects that look great in preseason and fizzle otherwise. Very interested to watch how he progresses. This year's Raty by the looks of it so far.

Scouching had him top 3 and highlighted the fact the Lahti's system was often so diminishing of a young budding player like Lambert's obvious talents, that it was no wonder he looked like he struggled most of the time.

Some players break out after moving to a different team or league because their game is suited way differently and it clicks in different ways and different times for all players. This is something I feel we forget sometimes.

 

[cg98]

When was Lambert projected to be an elite prospect?

Guy was as high as #2 projected to challenge Shane Wright for #1, as low #11 by mid year rankings, and then his move to the Pelicans in Liiga followed by his lackluster production completely tanked his ranking years end


Good for us tho

 

[BB88]

Good example of this is also probably Kakko. Beast in Liiga. Can't do much (so far) in NHL.

Kakko suffers from Rautala training school just like Laine did.

If he had Lamberts skating he’d be a monster

 

[ijuka]

That is when every nuance of a prospect’s game is analyzed and reanalyzed by multiple scouts until it is only the nuances that are highlighted and the overall play of the prospect becomes secondary. Well, that is my opinion anyhow….

Happened with Chychrun, too.

Kakko suffers from Rautala training school just like Laine did.

If he had Lamberts skating he’d be a monster

True, I'll never understand the logic for using decathlon training for hockey.