C Shane Wright (2022, 4th, SEA) Part 4

[Fistfullofbeer]

Ludicrous? Laughable? Let's just take one of those laughable players, Cutter Gauthier . Last season, the Flyers traded Gauthier to Anaheim for Jamie Drysdale and a 2nd round choice. What do you think Seattle could get for Wright on the open market?

Anyone who watched Wright in the years leading up to the 2022 draft could see that Wright would never be play driver. Wright will play in the NHL, but not at a level that warranted taking him at 4 OA.

In a re-draft, Wright's not going in the top 10. Perhaps not even in the top 15.

What have you seen in Wright that makes you make such a sure fire claim? Just curious? Is it his current point production? Or are you looking at his production in years leading to the 2022 draft like you said? I have my own opinions of him based on watching him in Coachella and Seattle last year and Seattle early this season.

Wright is a much improved player since his draft year. He is already playing at a 2C level and has been one of our best forwards so far this season. Sure, if you look at just the points though, you can make whatever conclusion you would like to.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Ludicrous? Laughable? Let's just take one of those laughable players, Cutter Gauthier . Last season, the Flyers traded Gauthier to Anaheim for Jamie Drysdale and a 2nd round choice. What do you think Seattle could get for Wright on the open market?

Anyone who watched Wright in the years leading up to the 2022 draft could see that Wright would never be play driver. Wright will play in the NHL, but not at a level that warranted taking him at 4 OA.

In a re-draft, Wright's not going in the top 10. Perhaps not even in the top 15.

You're stretching.

 

[Garbageyuk]

The real bottom line: You can't make a full and accurate assessment of a draft class until at least five years later. I am amused by all the self-annointed experts who seem to think it's possible after a little more than two. (Some of the real geniuses were even able to do it sooner!)

Got some news for you: that’s called scouting and teams and publications pay millions for it. This is probably the biggest hockey forum on the internet; you think there aren’t some actual scouts posting here? That’s the funny thing about the internet; you can never be sure who you’re talking to.

 

[vildurson]

Removed.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Got some news for you: that’s called scouting and teams and publications pay millions for it. This is probably the biggest hockey forum on the internet; you think there aren’t some actual scouts posting here? That’s the funny thing about the internet; you can never be sure who you’re talking to.

In the absence of posters getting vetted - which I can understand someone not wanting to do - it's also possible for someone to post a documented track record of success with past predictions (entire body of work, not cherry picking).

I can see at least one professional scout lurking in this thread right now, and he has been vetted.

You can't just say "it's possible that scouts are posting here, and therefore you need to take me seriously".

 

[Garbageyuk]

In the absence of posters getting vetted - which I can understand someone not wanting to do - it's also possible for someone to post a documented track record of success with past predictions (entire body of work, not cherry picking).

I can see at least one professional scout lurking in this thread right now, and he has been vetted.

You can't just say "it's possible that scouts are posting here, and therefore you need to take me seriously".

That isn’t at all what I said. I was simply pointing out what should be a rather obvious fact. The rest of your post I agree with.

 

[majormajor]

Funny how Wright takes all the doom and gloom while there’s not a single peep about Beniers’ pathetic production in absurdly favourable usage while being considerably older. It is near-unbelievable that anybody could deserve those OZ and PP1 minutes and produce so little in today’s NHL. If he’s given the chance, there’s a decent chance that by the end of the season Wright is Seattle’s top C going forward. Kid is 20 years old - maybe everyone should wait to see what he can do with 18+ minutes of premium OZ and PP1 usage in a couple years before drawing conclusions on what he can ultimately become.

To be fair to Beniers, the Kraken don't really have topline type players. Beniers and Wright actually switched their wingers last week - Wright is now centering Eberle and McCann - and barely anyone has made any comment on it, perhaps because none of them are that good.

Beniers is going to play a lot regardless because he is a two-way hoss. Although people are much more excited for what Wright can do production wise. Beniers can't seem to score while Wright seems to be on the cusp of doing a lot of it.

 

[Albatros]

It's strange to see such a comment made so early in his career when no one picked after him has clearly eclipsed him.

Mintyukov has.

 

[Sombastate]

This is such a hilarious conversation: Korchinski got demoted after a full year because he couldn't cut it - Wright has been promoted

Jiricek is getting yo-yo'd. Cutter is getting completely shut out.

Let these kids grow.

 

[majormajor]

Mintyukov has.

On draft day I had

Slafkovsky
Cooley
Jiricek
Mintyukov
Wright

I love what I've seen from Mintyukov, who I see becoming an all star #1D. He's still ahead for me.

Jiricek had big steps to take with his skating and he hasn't done that yet. Meanwhile Wright took the big steps he needed to take to get the passivity out of his game. I would move Wright up there. At this point I'm more confident that Wright will be a topliner than I am confident that Jiricek will be a top pair D. I'm still waiting to see where Nemec settles in.

Also I do expect a few players drafted later to move ahead of a lot of these guys. That's normal. Like people will be debating Luke Hughes vs Mason McTavish and then Logan Stankoven comes along later and he's better than both. That will happen with this draft class too.

Earlier someone implied that Wright would be "overdrafted" if we ended up with more than 3 better players from his draft class. That to me is not how you define overdrafted, it's actually normally the case that a 4th overall pick would have more than 3 better players from their class. There are going to be guys that come out of nowhere.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

Got some news for you: that’s called scouting and teams and publications pay millions for it. This is probably the biggest hockey forum on the internet; you think there aren’t some actual scouts posting here? That’s the funny thing about the internet; you can never be sure who you’re talking to.

Nope. There's a big difference between scouting, which is projecting who will be the best in five years and rating a draft class, which should not be done until five years later, ideally, because the development of the player is mostly complete by then.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Beniers is 14 months older than Shane Wright. Hardly "considerably" older.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Nope. There's a big difference between scouting, which is projecting who will be the best in five years and rating a draft class, which should not be done until five years later, ideally, because the development of the player is mostly complete by then.

Who’s rating the entire draft class as a whole? The discussion here seems to be about Wright, his rankings, draft position, where people think he should’ve went, and how he’s looked since the draft - all that has to do with scouting.

 

[majormajor]

Nope. There's a big difference between scouting, which is projecting who will be the best in five years and rating a draft class, which should not be done until five years later, ideally, because the development of the player is mostly complete by then.

Ranking players from a draft class, as a snapshot in time two or three or four years after the draft, is the same exercise as ranking a draft class in their draft year, with the only difference being that we know significantly more about the players than we did during their draft year.

Obviously our rankings will continue to change as the players surprise or disappoint us, there's nothing wrong with that.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

Who’s rating the entire draft class as a whole? The discussion here seems to be about Wright, his rankings, draft position, where people think he should’ve went, and how he’s looked since the draft - all that has to do with scouting.

I didn't say anyone was rating the whole draft class, but a previous poster was ranking the top end when he said Wright was "over-drafted at fourth overall"

 

[Garbageyuk]

I didn't say anyone was rating the whole draft class, but a previous poster was ranking the top end when he said Wright was "over-drafted at fourth overall"

And? That has to do with rankings. Your stance on scouting seems to be “it’s too early to know anything until 5 years have passed”. Ridiculous. Do you tell people doing pre draft rankings, projections, etc that it’s too early to know or predict anything?

 

[OilersFanatics505]

Threads like this are great. You can really see who’s a stat watcher. It’s hilarious.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

And? That has to do with rankings. Your stance on scouting seems to be “it’s too early to know anything until 5 years have passed”. Ridiculous. Do you tell people doing pre draft rankings, projections, etc that it’s too early to know or predict anything?

LOL! No, of course not. You have to make an assessment at the draft, but there are so many unknowns and projections at the time. There is no certainty, yet many insist on speaking with certainty pre-draft.

Players continue to develop at least five years after they're drafted, but that still doesn't stop people from giving them a final grade after one or two years. It's always been this way and always will be, I guess. Some people never learn.

 

[majormajor]

LOL! No, of course not. You have to make an assessment at the draft, but there are so many unknowns and projections at the time. There is no certainty, yet many insist on speaking with certainty pre-draft.

Players continue to develop at least five years after they're drafted, but that still doesn't stop people from giving them a final grade after one or two years. It's always been this way and always will be, I guess. Some people never learn.

I could make a 2022 top 32 re-ranking right now and there would be no presumption of a final grade on a player's career.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

I could make a 2022 top 32 re-ranking right now and there would be no presumption of a final grade on a player's career.

Don't let me stop you. Just be careful using phrases like "over-drafted" on players who were drafted below where they were ranked, as Wright was. That implies a final assessment.

Stick to the phraseology of "re-ranking based on two years of development" and that's a fun exercise, even for people who understand that player development is not linear.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Earlier someone implied that Wright would be "overdrafted" if we ended up with more than 3 better players from his draft class. That to me is not how you define overdrafted, it's actually normally the case that a 4th overall pick would have more than 3 better players from their class. There are going to be guys that come out of nowhere.

Exactly. If you pick a guy 4th and he ends up a top 10 player from that draft, you should be pretty happy. There are a lot worse outcomes.

 

[hawksrule]

This is such a hilarious conversation: Korchinski got demoted after a full year because he couldn't cut it - Wright has been promoted

Jiricek is getting yo-yo'd. Cutter is getting completely shut out.

Let these kids grow.

Korchinski wouldn’t have been in the NHL last year if not for the ridiculous rule that precluded him from playing in the A. To call it a demotion is technically true but doesn’t give the full picture, he’s now where he should be.

 

[Corso]

Stats aside, Wright has actually looked pretty good.....a solid number 2 C is nothing to sneeze at!

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Threads like this are great. You can really see who’s a star watcher. It’s hilarious.

Self-confessed star watcher here.

 

[majormajor]

Exactly. If you pick a guy 4th and he ends up a top 10 player from that draft, you should be pretty happy. There are a lot worse outcomes.

I would say about 7th or 8th is a rank you would be good with. 10th best in your typical draft class I would guess would be be mildly disappointing for a 4th OA pick. Though there are some years like 2021 is shaping up to be where the ordering is very random and 10th best ought to feel okay.