C Shane Wright (2022, 4th, SEA) Part 4

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Hockeyville USA

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Same thing happened with Nolan Patrick and so many others in recent years. Would love to see the draft pushed back to 19 year olds instead so scouts and experts have another year of information. No one benefits from these early draft busts. Not the teams, the fans, or the players.
Nolan Patrick was more injury/migraine related. And probably rushed into the NHL, straight into the league after only 33 games in the Dub in his DY because of injuries was shortsighted.

No way that any of us could truly know, but Patrick never seemed like a guy who ate, breath, sleep type of loving hockey, merely someone who played because he was really good and was born into the sport because of his dad and uncle. Maybe he loved it but didn't show it because his personality is so bland, who knows. Just my $0.02
 

LesCanadiens

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January birthday. January 5 2004, nearly as old as you can be in the birthyear. So he was the oldest in his grade and hockey playing group. Granted, he was so good in minor hockey that he ended up playing with the 2003s. So the relative age effect combined with the pandemic and his decision to not play (he should have just gone to the USHL like Matt Savoie did) while the O wasn't allowed to play by the provincial government were definite factors in his early plateauing.
Good points there. I remember someone from his hometown made a post a while ago predicting that he wouldn't pan out due to him already having "man-like" physical maturity at a very young age. And that was a big reason for him dominating. Not sure if it was in this thread. Before the draft, I watched him play and tried really hard to find reasons to like him because I thought for sure the Habs would take him.

Same thing happened with Nolan Patrick and so many others in recent years. Would love to see the draft pushed back to 19 year olds instead so scouts and experts have another year of information. No one benefits from these early draft busts. Not the teams, the fans, or the players.

Nolan Patrick...there's a blast from the past. I totally agree about 19 year olds. 18 is way too young to really tell.
 

Hockeyville USA

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Good points there. I remember someone from his hometown made a post a while ago predicting that he wouldn't pan out due to him already having "man-like" physical maturity at a very young age. And that was a big reason for him dominating. Not sure if it was in this thread. Before the draft, I watched him play and tried really hard to find reasons to like him because I thought for sure the Habs would take him.
Yep. And that doesn't mean you shouldn't take the oldest kids in the draft (late birthdays) or the oldest kids in their birthyear, but these are factors to consider especially when looking at guys who aren't super elite McDavid/Matthews type of talents
 
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bmore236

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I’m not making a decision until the end of the year as I want him to succeed. However, I don’t think he wins his 50/50 shares of puck battles and he needs to improve his foot speed.
 
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luapejrug

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Had a good stretch to start the season with not many people talking about it in this thread then as soon as he has a bad stretch all the Canadiens fans are coming out and calling him a bust again. I think people forget that he was drafted 4th overall and not 1st.

I think part of this is showing that some Montreal fans are still a little insecure about the Slafkovsky pick and can't have Wright panning out at all cause it shows them that they made a mistake...
 

LesCanadiens

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Had a good stretch to start the season with not many people talking about it in this thread then as soon as he has a bad stretch all the Canadiens fans are coming out and calling him a bust again. I think people forget that he was drafted 4th overall and not 1st.

I think part of this is showing that some Montreal fans are still a little insecure about the Slafkovsky pick and can't have Wright panning out at all cause it shows them that they made a mistake...
Actually maybe it's the other way around insecurity-wise. I don't believe the poster who bumped this thread a few days ago for the first time since Dec 2 is a Habs fan. And that's the only reason it's getting more action. Not that anyone needs to justify ANYTHING to you. This is a thread like any other on the prospects page and we see lots of non-Hab fan posters post on threads about our prospects. This isn't your private thread. And posts like this make the main boards insufferable and nauseating and nothing gets done about this long-standing issue.
 
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luapejrug

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Actually maybe it's the other way around insecurity-wise. I don't believe the poster who bumped this thread a few days ago for the first time since Dec 2 is a Habs fan. And that's the only reason it's getting more action. Not that anyone needs to justify ANYTHING to you. This is a thread like any other on the prospects page and we see lots of non-Hab fan posters post on threads about our prospects. This isn't your private thread. And posts like this make the main boards insufferable and nauseating and nothing gets done about this long-standing issue.
hey man you sound pretty mad. I didn't mean to make you upset.
 
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MrCreamm

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3 point night for Wright, probably coulda had another point or two, 5 goals, 8 points in his last 10 games. 2 primary assists, 1 pretty sweet stretch pass off the boards from the d-zone to Hughes for a 2 on 1 who elects to shoot it, and 1 pass directly to Winterton in the slot through two defenders sticks after winning the puck battle. And 1 goal in the slot after navigating space between defenders to tuck in a pass. Up to 24 points, 14 goals, in 32 games and is currently on pace for 30 goals and 52 points in 69 games as a rookie in the AHL. Currently 2nd in goals on the Firebirds.

Obviously went through a bit of a drought and his point production had slowed down a little bit but we might see him score at a slightly higher rate later on, don't think he'll go PPG as a fresh 20 year old, but I think he's played well. I must admit I don't watch every game cause I don't pay for the AHL pass. But from what I've seen he's quite good at finding space between defenders to get a goal in close and throughout this AHL season he's beaten goalies clean quite a fair bit, reads play well and playmaking/vision is still there.

Some probably hoped for a more explosive rookie AHL season, but I think he's had a good season, he's just turned 20 too and most of his CHL peers are obviously still stuck there due to the agreement. Is the potential still there to become an elite player? Idk for sure yet, but I'm not gonna write him off, might be a guy who takes longer to develop after missing a season of development or maybe he isn't what some chalked him up to be. I hope it isn't the latter, I wish he was a bit more dynamic, but he's a smart player who can rip passes tape to tape, and wire shots clean through a goalie, so I think he can still at the least become a good top 6 player.

Worth noting his linemate Winterton has 15 points in 30 games, and AHL regular Hughes has 32 points in 35 games. Kinda surprised Winterton isn't currently putting up slightly better numbers, as I remember some Kraken fans wanted him in the NHL line up early in the season.

No forward from the 2022 class is tearing it up yet, which isn't surprising. I mean even Cooley, some who projected to be a Calder finalist, who had a Hobby baker finalist year at U Minn, hasn't had as explosive of a rookie year in the NHL as some predicted. And although Cooley is on pace for 40 points, from what I've gathered and from discussion he seems to get favorable deployment, and 10 of his 20 points are on the PP.

Even guys like Mintyukov and Nemec who are having very good seasons for rookie defenders may be prone to the sophomore season slump like many defenseman in the past, and even Calder winner Beniers. Obviously Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson and got everyone really excited for the rookie race, and this season has by far one of the deepest pools of young talent in the league, but it's still ridiculously early to cast off some of these guys, or profess they are the next big talent.
 

WhiskeyYerTheDevils

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3 point night for Wright, probably coulda had another point or two, 5 goals, 8 points in his last 10 games. 2 primary assists, 1 pretty sweet stretch pass off the boards from the d-zone to Hughes for a 2 on 1 who elects to shoot it, and 1 pass directly to Winterton in the slot through two defenders sticks after winning the puck battle. And 1 goal in the slot after navigating space between defenders to tuck in a pass. Up to 24 points, 14 goals, in 32 games and is currently on pace for 30 goals and 52 points in 69 games as a rookie in the AHL. Currently 2nd in goals on the Firebirds.

Obviously went through a bit of a drought and his point production had slowed down a little bit but we might see him score at a slightly higher rate later on, don't think he'll go PPG as a fresh 20 year old, but I think he's played well. I must admit I don't watch every game cause I don't pay for the AHL pass. But from what I've seen he's quite good at finding space between defenders to get a goal in close and throughout this AHL season he's beaten goalies clean quite a fair bit, reads play well and playmaking/vision is still there.

Some probably hoped for a more explosive rookie AHL season, but I think he's had a good season, he's just turned 20 too and most of his CHL peers are obviously still stuck there due to the agreement. Is the potential still there to become an elite player? Idk for sure yet, but I'm not gonna write him off, might be a guy who takes longer to develop after missing a season of development or maybe he isn't what some chalked him up to be. I hope it isn't the latter, I wish he was a bit more dynamic, but he's a smart player who can rip passes tape to tape, and wire shots clean through a goalie, so I think he can still at the least become a good top 6 player.

Worth noting his linemate Winterton has 15 points in 30 games, and AHL regular Hughes has 32 points in 35 games. Kinda surprised Winterton isn't currently putting up slightly better numbers, as I remember some Kraken fans wanted him in the NHL line up early in the season.

Good to see him heating back up. For him, it's all about staying engaged and keeping his feet moving. He's a powerful straight line skater with a terrific release and good hockey sense. There should be no reason why he can't turn into a consistent threat to score 25-30+ goals in the NHL. He just needs to continue to get stronger and build up his confidence.

No forward from the 2022 class is tearing it up yet, which isn't surprising. I mean even Cooley, some who projected to be a Calder finalist, who had a Hobby baker finalist year at U Minn, hasn't had as explosive of a rookie year in the NHL as some predicted. And although Cooley is on pace for 40 points, from what I've gathered and from discussion he seems to get favorable deployment, and 10 of his 20 points are on the PP.

Even guys like Mintyukov and Nemec who are having very good seasons for rookie defenders may be prone to the sophomore season slump like many defenseman in the past, and even Calder winner Beniers. Obviously Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson and got everyone really excited for the rookie race, and this season has by far one of the deepest pools of young talent in the league, but it's still ridiculously early to cast off some of these guys, or profess they are the next big talent.

Yeah, the 2022 draft was always kind of shallow for top end forwards. This was especially true when talking about "NHL ready" top end forwards. But there did seem to be a fair number of high risk high reward forwards. Among 2022 forwards in the AHL this year, only Lambert and Kulich have stood out as their team's top offensive players.

Wright was my 4th rated forward before the draft, behind Cooley, Lambert, and Savoie. I imagine in a redraft he's still probably a top 5-8 forward. Kulich is the only guy I'd definitively have jumping over him at this point. Maybe Gauthier or Poitras. But there's a bunch of guys right there as well.
 

Fistfullofbeer

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Worth noting his linemate Winterton has 15 points in 30 games, and AHL regular Hughes has 32 points in 35 games. Kinda surprised Winterton isn't currently putting up slightly better numbers, as I remember some Kraken fans wanted him in the NHL line up early in the season.
Winterton actually started in the AHL pretty well but slowed down after the first 10 games or so. I am pretty happy with the way Wright has done. He is on pace for 30+ goals in his first AHL season, which is respectable.

On a side note, undrafted Logan Morrison is doing pretty well in his first pro season, with 25 points in 35 games.
 

kyle44

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18 games, 14 goals, 24 points, 1.33 ppg
15 games, 0 goals, 0 points, 0.00 ppg

i guess the scoring is there, but atm it comes in flashes
in the AHL
Good god, man. How many times can this be pointed out. Virtually every player on the planet looks like this when you separate their point scoring and non-point scoring games. Are they supposed to somehow have better stats in games that they don't get a point? This is how the math shakes out when you have players that are 0.75 ppg, which is quite reasonable for a player in their 19 year-old season in the AHL.
 
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Hockeyville USA

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Winterton actually started in the AHL pretty well but slowed down after the first 10 games or so. I am pretty happy with the way Wright has done. He is on pace for 30+ goals in his first AHL season, which is respectable.

On a side note, undrafted Logan Morrison is doing pretty well in his first pro season, with 25 points in 35 games.
Everyone knew that Morrison had a extremely good chance of doing this, considering he was one of the best players in the O in 2021-22 (after not playing the prior year due to the O not playing), looking better than Wright, Johnston, and McTavish for longer stretches of time. Was super surprised no one drafted Morrison in 2022.

Anyway, Wright is taking longer to develop than we expected. Hope Seattle gives him a better chance to succeed with more ice time, or trades him to somewhere that will afford him said opportunity.
 

Sam de Mtl

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18 games, 14 goals, 24 points, 1.33 ppg
15 games, 0 goals, 0 points, 0.00 ppg

i guess the scoring is there, but atm it comes in flashes
in the AHL
The only way this is a reasonable assessment went is if he went on a 18 games point steak followed by a 15 games point drought.

That would be some Kotkaniemi-level streaky.
 
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jcs0218

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Shane Wright has slipped more than I can remember most other once highly-touted prospects slipping.

I remember back in 2019/2020 when HF Boards considered him a "generational talent".

Then you have threads like this one, where Bedard does win the poll comfortably, but even most of the people saying Bedard were also saying that it was close between the two:

 
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FrozenJagrt

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Shane Wright has slipped more than I can remember most other once highly-touted prospects slipping.

I remember back in 2019/2020 when HF Boards considered him a "generational talent".

Then you have threads like this one, where Bedard does win the poll comfortably, but even most of the people saying Bedard were also saying that it was close between the two:

Biggest slip I can recall was Nick Ebert going from being rated top 10, potentially top 5 in his draft and eventually being taken dead last. I can't think of anyone else that fell off that hard that fast.
 
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MrCreamm

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Shane Wright has slipped more than I can remember most other once highly-touted prospects slipping.

I remember back in 2019/2020 when HF Boards considered him a "generational talent".

Then you have threads like this one, where Bedard does win the poll comfortably, but even most of the people saying Bedard were also saying that it was close between the two:

He's slipped for sure, even if some had the opinion he was physically developed for his age in the juniors, missing that year of development didn't help. Still I see what he's doing in the AHL as encouraging, he's just turned 20 too, so it's not like he's struggled to adapt to AHL level play.

It's so early for all players in the 2022 draft though, and no one is running away with the #1 position in the redraft yet. Sure there are some guys who have arguments for like Cooley, Nemec, Mintuykov but who knows which players from the draft will stagnate or come out of no where, prospect development isn't a linear path.
 
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MrCreamm

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Biggest slip I can recall was Nick Ebert going from being rated top 10, potentially top 5 in his draft and eventually being taken dead last. I can't think of anyone else that fell off that hard that fast.
Aatu Raty fell of hard, he was pegged as the 1 OA a year or maybe two before the 2021 draft as I recall. Same with Kiviharju who has yet to be drafted, but was getting attenion and buzz probably 2 years at least before this draft.

I think Wright is on a much better path than any of the other guys who "fell off", sure he's not had the hype of franchise center since before his draft season, but he "fell off" from 1 OA to 4th.
 
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Hockeyville USA

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Shane Wright has slipped more than I can remember most other once highly-touted prospects slipping.

I remember back in 2019/2020 when HF Boards considered him a "generational talent".

Then you have threads like this one, where Bedard does win the poll comfortably, but even most of the people saying Bedard were also saying that it was close between the two:

Shane Wright was never in the generational category for me. He was definitely looking to be franchise level in his 15 year old Exceptional Status season back in 2019-20. Season gets cut short, he doesn't play anywhere due to COVID in 2020-21, and then is just fine for his standards in his 17 year season, his DY.

I always saw more of a Tavares/Scheifele type ceiling in Wright as opposed to the Tier 1 generational guys. And I don't even see Crosby or McDavid ceiling in Bedard, I think he's more of a Kovalchuk type shooter with Patrick Kane type passing.
 

Hockeyville USA

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Aatu Raty fell of hard, he was pegged as the 1 OA a year or maybe two before the 2021 draft as I recall. Same with Kiviharju who has yet to be drafted, but was getting attenion and buzz probably 2 years at least before this draft.

I think Wright is on a much better path than any of the other guys who "fell off", sure he's not had the hype of franchise center since before his draft season, but he "fell off" from 1 OA to 4th.
Raty should have never been ranked that high. Liiga has been overrated for a bit now, and his u20 production never screamed 1st overall caliber even before his DY.
 

MrCreamm

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Raty should have never been ranked that high. Liiga has been overrated for a bit now, and his u20 production never screamed 1st overall caliber even before his DY.
Overrated for sure, but he fell from potential 1OA to the 2nd round. Just pointing out how other guys have fallen on draft day and Wright isn't tracking to be a non-factor like Raty, in my opinion.
 

WarriorofTime

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John McFarland was another GTHL darling that fell to the 2nd round then washed out of North American Pro Hockey after four years, washed out of Europe a couple years later and is now an OHL Assistant Coach.
 

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