C Shane Wright (2022, 4th, SEA) Part 4

[Fistfullofbeer]

Habs should've taken him 1 OA. He's such an intelligent player

Both seem to be coming along pretty well though. At the end of the day just hoping for both kids to succeed.

 

[Craig Ludwig]

Sadly, this draft is looking more and more like a very weak one. But on the bright side, as a Habs fan, we snagged Hutson in the second round, and he's looking like the best pick.

 

[MoneyManny]

Both seem to be coming along pretty well though. At the end of the day just hoping for both kids to succeed.

Habs are playing with house money with Slaf. After picking Hutson in the 2nd round i wouldn't even be mad if Juraj decided to retire right now and spend the rest of his days in a Tibetan monastery.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Sadly, this draft is looking more and more like a very weak one. But on the bright side, as a Habs fan, we snagged Hutson in the second round, and he's looking like the best pick.

For sure. The Kraken made some promising picks in the later rounds but it's always a crapshoot to see which of them actually make it to the NHL. Hope is some of the Kraken picks from the draft end up in the NHL.

Firkus
Nyman
Nelson
Jugnauth

Got some hope that they end up making it and atleast one of them end up as a top-6 F or top-4D.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Habs are playing with house money with Slaf. After picking Hutson in the 2nd round i wouldn't even be mad if Juraj decided to retire right now and spend the rest of his days in a Tibetan monastery.

That's great. But this is not about the Canadiens. I was talking about hoping that Slaf succeeds.

 

[Fatass]

Sadly, this draft is looking more and more like a very weak one. But on the bright side, as a Habs fan, we snagged Hutson in the second round, and he's looking like the best pick.

Cup champions cover missed high picks with gems from later in the draft. Not too sure if Wright was a miss though. He seems like a solid player. Just an overall weak draft at the top, imo.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

Sadly, this draft is looking more and more like a very weak one. But on the bright side, as a Habs fan, we snagged Hutson in the second round, and he's looking like the best pick.

This was always the case after Wright faltered a little, the rest of 2022 wasn't really viewed as top end outside of Savoie who had big size concerns , and Lambert who also fell off. Those 3 were the guys talked about as having superstar potential and that was pretty much it.

Slaf was taken 1 because of his raw physical tools and homerun upside, and because nobody else in the draft had high odds of becoming a franchise player.

I always thought, and still think , Wright will be a good to very good player. His game is coming along, I can see his upside similar to Suzuki with a better shot and maybe slightly less creativity. Ppg and well rounded , not a super elite but still a #1 and a great piece to have

 

[eojsmada]

Wright looks like he'll be a 15-20 goal/year average with potential 30g peak. He's showing glimpses of a really decent game and is doing really well with PP time. Will be interesting to see how Seattle works with their roster to augment the development of their higher end players.

 

[Plastic Joseph]

Wright looks like he'll be a 15-20 goal/year average with potential 30g peak. He's showing glimpses of a really decent game and is doing really well with PP time. Will be interesting to see how Seattle works with their roster to augment the development of their higher end players.

How can we really know anything about the future based on 58 NHL games? I think putting a player in a box like this is pretty short sighted , but I also think that even if we were to assess his performance and age that would be a pretty bad box to throw him in.

He's on pace to score 15 goals this season as a 20 year old rookie (yeah I know he played 8 games in each of the last 2 years). So why would a player who is on pace for 15 goals at age 20 be pegged as a 15-20 goal scorer? I would say at the minimum a realistic projection would have him routinely hitting 25+ during his prime years based on what we have seen so far. Potential probably still more like 40 goal peak than 30, 40 goals isn't what it used to be and neither is 30. If it were 10 years ago a player of this calibre would be pegged as having a 30 goal peak, but now there are like fifty 30-goal scorers in a season. I'm not sure he will ever reach that, but that would still be his ceiling. People are a bit bullish on him because of his previous hype, but putting up 0.5ppg as a 20 year old is still impressive especially on an offensively inept team. He definitely has a lot more than 15-20 goal average.

 

[eojsmada]

How can we really know anything about the future based on 58 NHL games? I think putting a player in a box like this is pretty short sighted , but I also think that even if we were to assess his performance and age that would be a pretty bad box to throw him in.

He's on pace to score 15 goals this season as a 20 year old rookie (yeah I know he played 8 games in each of the last 2 years). So why would a player who is on pace for 15 goals at age 20 be pegged as a 15-20 goal scorer? I would say at the minimum a realistic projection would have him routinely hitting 25+ during his prime years based on what we have seen so far. Potential probably still more like 40 goal peak than 30, 40 goals isn't what it used to be and neither is 30. If it were 10 years ago a player of this calibre would be pegged as having a 30 goal peak, but now there are like fifty 30-goal scorers in a season. I'm not sure he will ever reach that, but that would still be his ceiling. People are a bit bullish on him because of his previous hype, but putting up 0.5ppg as a 20 year old is still impressive especially on an offensively inept team. He definitely has a lot more than 15-20 goal average.

Because I always pick the under on players and let them surprise me, rather than put the burden of higher expectation on them and let them disappoint me.

 

[Plastic Joseph]

Because I always pick the under on players and let them surprise me, rather than put the burden of higher expectation on them and let them disappoint me.

its not the expectation you said "potential peak" that is what is usually called a prospect or young player's "ceiling" which is not at all what is to be expected, but the high end of what is possible (within reason).

I think its a lot more likely he tops out in the 30s than 40+, but I still think he's shown enough that the possibility he ends up scoring 40 isn't even that unrealistic. Like I said 30 goals might not even land you in the top 50 anymore for goals in a given year. You don't have to be that elite to hit 30 anymore

 

[eojsmada]

its not the expectation you said "potential peak" that is what is usually called a prospect or young player's "ceiling" which is not at all what is to be expected, but the high end of what is possible (within reason).

I think its a lot more likely he tops out in the 30s than 40+, but I still think he's shown enough that the possibility he ends up scoring 40 isn't even that unrealistic. Like I said 30 goals might not even land you in the top 50 anymore for goals in a given year. You don't have to be that elite to hit 30 anymore

Fair...but I still choose a lower number to be on the safe side.

 

[Plastic Joseph]

Fair...but I still choose a lower number to be on the safe side.

well whatever you want but as someone who isn't a Kraken fan at all or anything and a somewhat neutral observer I will say Wright has a lot more than 15-20 goal upside. There are currently 8 players in the NHL under the age of 21 (as of Jan 1) with 0.5ppg or higher and he's one of them. He still needs to develop sure, but he's a lot better than most will give him credit for because of how he was viewed from ages 14-17, and its going to take him becoming a star for many people to give him props because they will always feel he underperformed relative to the expectation.

But I will say it again - 0.5 ppg on a poor offensive team as a 20 yo rookie is good, he's definitely got 60+ point upside and that is being conservative.

 

[eojsmada]

well whatever you want but as someone who isn't a Kraken fan at all or anything and a somewhat neutral observer I will say Wright has a lot more than 15-20 goal upside. There are currently 8 players in the NHL under the age of 21 (as of Jan 1) with 0.5ppg or higher and he's one of them. He still needs to develop sure, but he's a lot better than most will give him credit for because of how he was viewed from ages 14-17, and its going to take him becoming a star for many people to give him props because they will always feel he underperformed relative to the expectation.

But I will say it again - 0.5 ppg on a poor offensive team as a 20 yo rookie is good, he's definitely got 60+ point upside and that is being conservative.

I'm not disagreeing with you. And I'm not a Kraken fan, either. I just tend to undervalue point production out of players until they have actually done it (and usually more than once).