C Shane Wright (2022, 4th, SEA) Part 4

[Mickey Marner]

Will probably be sent down this week before he spends a 40th day on the roster and accrues a pro season.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Thank God they drafted Beniers

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

Seth Jarvis climbed his way up the Canes lineup starting with that TOI. A lineup much better than the Kraken too.
Shane Wright was never good enough to make the NHL as an 18 yo

Were you just pulling these numbers out of thin air?

Seth Jarvis got way more ice time in his rookie season than Wright is getting. Here's a snapshot of his TOI during his first 10 games. Only one game below 10 minutes.

As you pointed out, Wright is only 18. Jarvis was 19 years old in his rookie season so given the difference in age and huge difference in ice time, I'm not sure why you brought Jarvis up.

 

[nbwingsfan]

I won't be surprised if he doesn't make the Canadian team.

There’s basically a zero% chance he wouldn’t make TC

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

There’s basically a zero% chance he wouldn’t make TC

Exactly. Imagine somebody who led the U18s in PPG as an underager and captained the team to a gold medal, then played on the world junior team last year, not making the team this year.

If that's what he's suggesting, then this thread has jumped the shark.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

Exactly. Imagine somebody who led the U18s in PPG as an underager and captained the team to a gold medal, then played on the world junior team last year, not making the team this year.

If that's what he's suggesting, then this thread has jumped the shark.

We're getting some really hot takes now , poor man's Dannault at best ? Come on with that kind of stuff people, he's in a tough spot now but to just brush his potential aside like that is a bit much - he's an absolute lock to make TC.

Although I do think his development and situation are concerning, he still has upside to be a really good player , he's still 18 years old after all

Edit - to everyone saying "trajectory" or early development, look no further than Sean Couturier for an example of players who can see ups and downs before figuring it all out. Couturier age 14/15 was the next big thing, then at 16 he was a disappointment, and then again at 17 he was the future #1 pick, then at 18 he was a disappointment again and fell in the draft. Then from 19 to like 25 he was a "middle sixer" , then guess what ? He was a multi time 75 pt selke winning centre. He was also accuses of being a player who benefited from his early physical development and size, many wrote off his offensive skills and said the flyers keeping him up at 18 was a mistake that would pigeon hoke him into a shutdown role for the rest of his career. It's not always up, up, up - sometimes development is scattered. I know it's the hot opinion to say wright is trending down now and will continue to do so , but it's way to early to write him off... I guess hype goes both ways in terms of hot takes

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

We're getting some really hot takes now , poor man's Dannault at best ? Come on with that kind of stuff people, he's in a tough spot now but to just brush his potential aside like that is a bit much - he's an absolute lock to make TC.

Although I do think his development and situation are concerning, he still has upside to be a really good player , he's still 18 years old after all

Edit - to everyone saying "trajectory" or early development, look no further than Sean Couturier for an example of players who can see ups and downs before figuring it all out. Couturier age 14/15 was the next big thing, then at 16 he was a disappointment, and then again at 17 he was the future #1 pick, then at 18 he was a disappointment again and fell in the draft. Then from 19 to like 25 he was a "middle sixer" , then guess what ? He was a multi time 75 pt selke winning centre. He was also accuses of being a player who benefited from his early physical development and size, many wrote off his offensive skills and said the flyers keeping him up at 18 was a mistake that would pigeon hoke him into a shutdown role for the rest of his career. It's not always up, up, up - sometimes development is scattered. I know it's the hot opinion to say wright is trending down now and will continue to do so , but it's way to early to write him off... I guess hype goes both ways in terms of hot takes

Agreed. I don't put any stock in the criticism that Wright was physically mature at a young age. He always played up an age group and he never used physical size or strength to excel. He used smarts and skill.

There seem to be an awful lot of people piling on as an 18-year-old player struggles to adjust to the best hockey league in the world. This has never happened before to any Top 5 pick in the NHL draft, so, you know, might as well write him off.

 

[57special]

I think the main thing here is that SEA has to not screw up his head by making poor choices. It's not like they need Wright to help them this year.... they are doing fine without him. At 18yo, there are many, many kids who just aren't ready to live an adult lifestyle around dudes who are married, have kids, and the like. He probably would benefit with some time back down in junior, mentally, if nothing else.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

Will probably be sent down this week before he spends a 40th day on the roster and accrues a pro season.

Isn't the rule 40 games? Not 40 days

Maybe I'm wrong though

 

[William H Bonney]

Agreed. I don't put any stock in the criticism that Wright was physically mature at a young age. He always played up an age group and he never used physical size or strength to excel. He used smarts and skill.

There seem to be an awful lot of people piling on as an 18-year-old player struggles to adjust to the best hockey league in the world. This has never happened before to any Top 5 pick in the NHL draft, so, you know, might as well write him off.

Just because he didn't rely on size or strength to excel doesn't mean he wasn't an early bloomer physically.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

Just because he didn't rely on size or strength to excel doesn't mean he wasn't an early bloomer physically.

You're going to need to show your work on how he was an "early bloomer physically" and how it adversely affects his potential as a prospect.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Isn't the rule 40 games? Not 40 days

Maybe I'm wrong though

As per capftiendly.

NHL CBA FAQ - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Has seven (7) Accrued Seasons where an Accrued Season is earned when the player was on the clubs active roster for 40 Regular Season games (30 if the player is a goaltender).

 

[William H Bonney]

You're going to need to show your work on how he was an "early bloomer physically" and how it adversely affects his potential as a prospect.

Will do once you show your work on how his "smarts" enabled him to excel. Early physical development doesn't by default adversely affect his potential. It's a consideration, not a conviction.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

As per capftiendly.

NHL CBA FAQ - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Ok so that's correct and it is 40 games... Not days

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

Will do once you show your work on how his "smarts" enabled him to excel. Early physical development doesn't by default adversely affect his potential. It's a consideration, not a conviction.

Happy to oblige. This is the opinion of professional scouts. I've provided publicly available links where possible. Some is from copyrighted material that I've purchased and can't share all of it, but I've provided screen captures relevant to the discussion.

No. 1. This is from the 2019 OHL Priority Selection preview, which was prepared by the league and would encapsulate the scouting reports from the league's central scouting department.

No. 2 and 3. These are from Hockey Prospects 2021 Black Book, which provided an advance look at 2022 prospects.

No. 4 This is from the Red Line Report 2022 Draft Guide.

No. 5 This is a quote from Dan Marr, the director of NHL Central Scouting.

None of these reports express any concern about his early physical maturity affecting his long-term potential as a prospect.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Will probably be sent down this week before he spends a 40th day on the roster and accrues a pro season.

Must dress, for 40 games , not 40 days into season.

 

[William H Bonney]

Happy to oblige. This is the opinion of professional scouts. I've provided publicly available links where possible.

No. 1. This is from the 2019 OHL Priority Selection preview, which was prepared by the league and would encapsulate the scouting reports from the league's central scouting department.

No. 2 and 3. This is from Hockey Prospects 2021 Black Book, which provided an advance look at 2022 prospects.

No. 4 This is from the Red Line Report 2022 Draft Guide.

No. 5 This is a quote from Dan Marr, the director of NHL Central Scouting.

None of these reports express any concern about his early physical maturity affecting his long-term potential as a prospect.

Here you go. From a more direct source than a scout, too:

“He wasn’t your typical 15-year-old that was going through growing pains. He was built, he was strong, he was ripped. He looked like an athlete. He didn’t look like a 15-year-old boy. He was able to hold players off because of that strength,” said Frontenacs assistant coach Chris Longo. “I’ve got a son myself who is just turning 15 and he’s still a young boy. Shane was a young man at that age.”

“He’s an exceptional player. The first thing I noticed was just how mature he is and how strong he is. He doesn’t stand out in a negative way on the ice at all,” Byram said.

Or better yet, maybe you'll agree with Wright himself:

I feel like that is just the type of person who I am. I have always been ahead of the curve, and physically more mature as well where I played up an age in hockey my entire life so I have had to grow up quicker than a lot of kids my age.

It's not hard to have followed Wright and been able to see how he was more physically mature at a young age compared to his peers. He's not all that different physically now compared to when he was the young guy in town (OHL, Hockey Canada camps, etc.). How much that helped him excel or how much that early development is part of his growing pains now are subjective. But pretending like he wasn't physically mature compared to his peers is not supported.

 

[93LEAFS]

Here you go. From a more direct source than a scout, too:





Or better yet, maybe you'll agree with Wright himself:


It's not hard to have followed Wright and been able to see how he was more physically mature at a young age compared to his peers. He's not all that different physically now compared to when he was the young guy in town (OHL, Hockey Canada camps, etc.). How much that helped him excel or how much that early development is part of his growing pains now are subjective. But pretending like he wasn't physically mature compared to his peers is not supported.

The big thing with Wright, while more physically mature, it's in the Tavares sense that its more than adequate for the NHL. Crosby for example was very mature build wise at a young age, but he was so damn talented it didn't matter. The real issue you run into is those short fire hydrant-built guys who top out at like 5'9 but dominate lower levels due to their strength and low center of gravity. The best examples of this I can think of are Adam Mascherin and Jake Wise in recent years, who were both thought of very highly prior to entering the CHL and USNTDP.

 

[FerrisRox]

I won't be surprised if he doesn't make the Canadian team.

Are you serious? Wright easily makes the team and will be a high end player in the tournament.

 

[William H Bonney]

The big thing with Wright, while more physically mature, it's in the Tavares sense that its more than adequate for the NHL. Crosby for example was very mature build wise at a young age, but he was so damn talented it didn't matter. The real issue you run into is those short fire hydrant-built guys who top out at like 5'9 but dominate lower levels due to their strength and low center of gravity. The best examples of this I can think of are Adam Mascherin and Jake Wise in recent years, who were both thought of very highly prior to entering the CHL and USNTDP.

For sure. Wright's size should not be a hindrance at all when it comes to making it in the NHL. It's just not a matter of debate on whether he was physically mature early on or not. He unquestionably was. The unknown is to what extent, if at all, that's playing a part in his recalibration as a prospect over the last year plus.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

Here you go. From a more direct source than a scout, too:





Or better yet, maybe you'll agree with Wright himself:


It's not hard to have followed Wright and been able to see how he was more physically mature at a young age compared to his peers. He's not all that different physically now compared to when he was the young guy in town (OHL, Hockey Canada camps, etc.). How much that helped him excel or how much that early development is part of his growing pains now are subjective. But pretending like he wasn't physically mature compared to his peers is not supported.

I never said he wasn't physically mature, I said it wasn't the reason he excelled and none of these people are saying that's the reason either.

You've brought it up a couple times in this thread, like it's relevant to why he's struggling to adapt to the NHL or that it should mitigate any projection of his potential as a prospect.

Maybe I'm reading you wrong and if that's not what you're saying, I have no idea why you've brought it up.

EDIT: Here's Thomas Harley, from that same article in The Athletic that you quoted:
“He’s super smart out there, he can skate with the best of them, he’s got great hands. The thing that stood out to me the most was just how smart he was. Like he’s ahead of the game, he’s two steps ahead of the game each time he’s on the ice. He knows where the puck is going to be and he gets there and then he always makes good plays.”

 

[Artorius Horus T]

Bedard is 5 foot 9½ 186 pound physically mature 17 year old.
What happens next year for Bedard when/if in same situation what Wright?

Lots other junior players who are not physically mature, yet they still play really good,
even dominate, they have room to improve, in every area of their game

Well then, what about Shane Wright & Connor Bedard?

It could be that Wright peaked, matured at very early age
and haven't worked on his game much at all, sure he did
lose entire season of development and this season has gone
how it has gone.

| however, dude is only 18, i think we will see the truth
to Wright's situation in his last ELC year |


What if the same happens/has happened for Bedard?
its not like Bedard is McDavid level prospect you know.
- we cannot all be gods of hockey.. lol

If Connor Bedard stops working on his game
stops trying to get better, learning new stuff etc. etc.

I have a body of a pro, i'm dominating in here at junior level
both in CHL and at International, i'm going to be drafted 1st overall,
i'm ready, ready to take the Calder.

You never know how these things go.

Good luck Shane Wright

 

[William H Bonney]

I never said he wasn't physically mature, I said it wasn't the reason he excelled and none of these people are saying that's the reason either.

You've brought it up a couple times in this thread, like it's relevant to why he's struggling to adapt to the NHL or that it should mitigate any projection of his potential as a prospect.

Maybe I'm reading you wrong and if that's not what you're saying, I have no idea why you've brought it up.

EDIT: Here's Thomas Harley, from that same article in The Athletic that you quoted:
“He’s super smart out there, he can skate with the best of them, he’s got great hands. The thing that stood out to me the most was just how smart he was. Like he’s ahead of the game, he’s two steps ahead of the game each time he’s on the ice. He knows where the puck is going to be and he gets there and then he always makes good plays.”

You legit started this by responding to my message below telling me to show my work:

Just because he didn't rely on size or strength to excel doesn't mean he wasn't an early bloomer physically.

And yet you want me to "show my work" in a way that contradicts my statement to you. You need to pick a lane because your argument keeps changing. I didn't dispute his "smarts" - the point was that's a far more subjective component to measure than his physical maturity, yet you acted like his smarts were obvious and his early physical maturity was not and needed proof.

I believe his early physical maturity is driving his recent struggles to some extent. You don't. That's fine. It's subjective anyway. But just because some scouts didn't have concerns about his physical maturity affecting his long term potential doesn't mean that (a) they were right; or (b) it isn't. The success rate on scouting (or any of our takes, mine included) is low.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

He should be sent down to the AHL. He needs time to digest the pace.

I think his ceiling is Philip Danault or poor man version

I don't see him being nearly as good of a two way player as Danault. He's very average in that regard, and he's never been the hardest working guy on the ice.

My comp all along has been a Sean Monahan type of player, and I still think that's close to his ceiling. Given a play driving winger who can make plays, he should be able to score 30 goals at least once in his career, but he's not going to bring much else. And if he's asked to run his own line, he's going to struggle.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I never said he wasn't physically mature, I said it wasn't the reason he excelled and none of these people are saying that's the reason either.

You've brought it up a couple times in this thread, like it's relevant to why he's struggling to adapt to the NHL or that it should mitigate any projection of his potential as a prospect.

Maybe I'm reading you wrong and if that's not what you're saying, I have no idea why you've brought it up.

EDIT: Here's Thomas Harley, from that same article in The Athletic that you quoted:
“He’s super smart out there, he can skate with the best of them, he’s got great hands. The thing that stood out to me the most was just how smart he was. Like he’s ahead of the game, he’s two steps ahead of the game each time he’s on the ice. He knows where the puck is going to be and he gets there and then he always makes good plays.”

From @William H Bonney 's post:

“He wasn’t your typical 15-year-old that was going through growing pains. He was built, he was strong, he was ripped. He looked like an athlete. He didn’t look like a 15-year-old boy. He was able to hold players off because of that strength,” said Frontenacs assistant coach Chris Longo.

Sounds to me like being able to outmuscle the opposition is a great example of how being more physically mature helps young players succeed. I can't imagine it hurt his shot velocity either, which was uncommonly quick for a 15 year old.