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Prospect Info: C/RW Matthew Savoie, 9th Overall, 2022 NHL Draft - Traded to Moose Jaw 1/4/24

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SnuggaRUDE said:
The post your replying to is fairly sympathetic to the idea that points aren’t everything. Is there a reason you’re jumping down his throat?
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It's not necessarily the poster or post but the over use of D+ whatever stats to determine a prospect's status. I'm sure the poster realized what we agreed and perhaps disagree about.
 
Matt Ress said:
You're not actually making a point. Assess the player, their tendencies, their circumstance... Saying "not every player makes it" is true but uninformed and vague enough to be unremarkable.

Just because counting stats are the only thing you have made available to yourself, doesn't mean that's the end-all and certainly doesn't prove your assertion and frankly, with any hockey development knowledge, it's not an indicator of anything. You should do better in your wording and scope of player's motivations overall circumstances.
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Wow. You are really upset about Savoie. It's kind of a love is blind thing, eh? I mean, I never said or implied any of the words you are putting in my mouth here. You literally just made a bunch of stuff up and threw it at me.

I did actually make a point, you just blindly dismissed it. Its ok, but I prefer intelligent respectful discourse, so I will move on.
 
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debaser66 said:
he still got this season and next to figure it out before he goes to the Amerks to transition to the pro game.
Maybe its really the shoulder thats hampering him atm
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Purely my speculation, but it might be the idea of it that kept him a bit more to the outside earlier than the injury itself. He may have been worried about reinjury and tried to protect himself. Of late, there has been a lot more game to the interior than there was in the early parts of the year in my limited viewings. *shrug*
 
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Bendium said:
Wow. You are really upset about Savoie. It's kind of a love is blind thing, eh? I mean, I never said or implied any of the words you are putting in my mouth here. You literally just made a bunch of stuff up and threw it at me.

I did actually make a point, you just blindly dismissed it. Its ok, but I prefer intelligent respectful discourse, so I will move on.
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Hey man I didn't mean to come off so aggressively but reading it back I can see it. I'm definitely not upset but if I'm too dumb to discord feel free to move on.
 
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The injuries probably play a role, but I guess where my concern would come in is that his stock has been going down gradually over multiple years.

He went from being a considered phenom, to top 3 pick, to top 5 pick, to 8th pick where other teams don't seem to envious.
 
jc17 said:
The injuries probably play a role, but I guess where my concern would come in is that his stock has been going down gradually over multiple years.

He went from being a considered phenom, to top 3 pick, to top 5 pick, to 8th pick where other teams don't seem to envious.
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Yeah, though there are also instances where a player slides a bit over the course of his draft season and into draft day and the team selecting the player later is sitting pretty too. It isn't an absolute. Ryan Ellis and Zach Parise are two who have had that happen only to wind up having really solid careers.
 
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MOGlLNY said:
Members are getting way too defensive at others for saying we should keep the possibility open of moving Savoie for the right piece.

Literally nobody saying he’s a bust or a wasted pick in this thread. Nobody.
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This can be said about any player or any prospect (for the right deal, everyone is available), but there is no right deal and never will be. Adams works differently, build an contender from the inside and it will be done.
 
Fjordy said:
This can be said about any player or any prospect (for the right deal, everyone is available), but there is no right deal and never will be. Adams works differently, build an contender from the inside and it will be done.
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lol sure
 
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Chainshot said:
Yeah, though there are also instances where a player slides a bit over the course of his draft season and into draft day and the team selecting the player later is sitting pretty too. It isn't an absolute. Ryan Ellis and Zach Parise are two who have had that happen only to wind up having really solid careers.
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Guess it's not really the same but I'm just reminded of Reinhart. Sam wasn't injured but in his draft year was at 1.75 ppg, after the gratuitous 9 game stint in Buffalo in D+1 he scored at a 1.38 clip back in the W. SR was physically under developed and made the team out of camp the next year scoring 42 pts in his rookie season. You could see him being less aggressive and even sluggish in his last junior season. Turns out he was preparing for the NHL.

Point is that some guys need that conditioning and perhaps the team asked him to add strength to be successful. It wouldn't be a stretch to assume the same of Savoie. I'm not against trading anyone for the right price but if Savoie is at a low margin, why would you get bad value for him. If the team told him to just go out and dominate, 1) they're probably missing an opportunity to improve an asset and 2) probably would want to move him as quickly as possible. But I don't believe that's the case and we're not privy to the regular contact they have with him.
 
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I was curious about all of the people who are down on Savoie this season and his lack of statistical improvement. I found several interesting things digging deeper into him statistically.

1. His shooting % last season was 16.7%, this season it's 11%. That's something that can easily increase as those numbers fluctuate during a season for many players, he's getting off almost a full shot more per game however which is significant.

2. His powerplay production is down considerably from last season. He had 12 goals and 22 assists on the PP last year in 64 games. his current rate would put him at 4 goals and 16 assists over the same number of games. A drop off of 8 goals and 6 assists, and that's not all on him.

3. This ties to his PP production. Winnipeg's PP was ranked 1st in the WHL last season at 27.4%, they are ranked 11th this season at 22.5%. Either that won't last or there are other issues beyond Savoie. The PP is not reflected by a single player, usage and scheme matter.

4. His even strength production is nearly identical to last season, he is pacing for 54 even strength points vs 56 for last season given the same number of games. He's doing this while shooting almost 6% worse. If his shooting % levels out as the season progresses his production will increase over last year.

5. He has 4 shorthanded points this season, which is good for 2nd on the team. They've scored 10 shorthanded goals so he's been involved in 40% of them, and Winnipeg are ranked 5th in PK efficiency. He clearly has more defensive responsibilities this season.

6. His FO% has also increased this season from 51% to 53.5% and he is the best faceoff guy they have. That means they very likely put him on the ice during more of their defensive situations than they did last season when they had a couple of guys who were leaned on more for those situations.

Unfortunately I don't believe there is accurate tracking of ice time statistics for the WHL, because I'd be interested to know what his distribution was this season vs last.
 
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Matt Ress said:
Guess it's not really the same but I'm just reminded of Reinhart. Sam wasn't injured but in his draft year was at 1.75 ppg, after the gratuitous 9 game stint in Buffalo in D+1 he scored at a 1.38 clip back in the W. SR was physically under developed and made the team out of camp the next year scoring 42 pts in his rookie season. You could see him being less aggressive and even sluggish in his last junior season. Turns out he was preparing for the NHL.

Point is that some guys need that conditioning and perhaps the team asked him to add strength to be successful. It wouldn't be a stretch to assume the same of Savoie. I'm not against trading anyone for the right price but if Savoie is at a low margin, why would you get bad value for him. If the team told him to just go out and dominate, 1) they're probably missing an opportunity to improve an asset and 2) probably would want to move him as quickly as possible. But I don't believe that's the case and we're not privy to the regular contact they have with him.
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But reinhart stinks again so the people saying he was a bust were right all along :sarcasm:

One key difference in my mind is production relative to teammates. Still not perfect by any means, but I feel like its held some weight in the past.

Sam's 1.38 came with his highest scoring teammates at 1.17ish.

Point was at 1.45 with the next teammate at 1.2.

Savoie is at 1.27 with a teammate at 1.36 and another younger teammate at 1.54.

Does it mean savoie is a bust? Of course not. The injuries, and special teams probably play a role as the other poster pointed out. However, I think the level of team production is a large caveat that can't be overlooked when comparing him to other guys with a drop in numbers
 
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WhereAreTheCookies said:
I was curious about all of the people who are down on Savoie this season and his lack of statistical improvement. I found several interesting things digging deeper into him statistically.

1. His shooting % last season was 16.7%, this season it's 11%. That's something that can easily increase as those numbers fluctuate during a season for many players, he's getting off almost a full shot more per game however which is significant.

2. His powerplay production is down considerably from last season. He had 12 goals and 22 assists on the PP last year in 64 games. his current rate would put him at 4 goals and 16 assists over the same number of games. A drop off of 8 goals and 6 assists, and that's not all on him.

3. This ties to his PP production. Winnipeg's PP was ranked 1st in the WHL last season at 27.4%, they are ranked 11th this season at 22.5%. Either that won't last or there are other issues beyond Savoie. The PP is not reflected by a single player, usage and scheme matter.

4. His even strength production is nearly identical to last season, he is pacing for 54 even strength points vs 56 for last season given the same number of games. He's doing this while shooting almost 6% worse. If his shooting % levels out as the season progresses his production will increase over last year.

5. He has 4 shorthanded points this season, which is good for 2nd on the team. They've scored 10 shorthanded goals so he's been involved in 40% of them, and Winnipeg are ranked 5th in PK efficiency. He clearly has more defensive responsibilities this season.

6. His FO% has also increased this season from 51% to 53.5% and he is the best faceoff guy they have. That means they very likely put him on the ice during more of their defensive situations than they did last season when they had a couple of guys who were leaned on more for those situations.

Unfortunately I don't believe there is accurate tracking of ice time statistics for the WHL, because I'd be interested to know what his distribution was this season vs last.
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Good on you to take the time to put this together. I think some are taking peoples criticism of Savoie to harshly. Noone is calling him a bust, but many were hoping for a high impact top line player. All people are saying is that he has not made the statistical jump typically expected from a high draft pick going into their post draft junior year.

If anything, your analysis supports what people are saying. He may still be on track to be a solid player, but is just not looking like the special player many hoped for. This makes him expendable in many peoples minds when it comes to trade assets.
 
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FWIW Conner Geekie on the same team drafted two spots later also has not increased production.
 
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Bendium said:
Good on you to take the time to put this together. I think some are taking peoples criticism of Savoie to harshly. Noone is calling him a bust, but many were hoping for a high impact top line player. All people are saying is that he has not made the statistical jump typically expected from a high draft pick going into their post draft junior year.

If anything, your analysis supports what people are saying. He may still be on track to be a solid player, but is just not looking like the special player many hoped for. This makes him expendable in many peoples minds when it comes to trade assets.
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Just because he has a bit of a dip in production in his D+1 year does not mean he can't be a top line player. He still has that potential.
 
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Zman5778 said:
Just because he has a bit of a dip in production in his D+1 year does not mean he can't be a top line player. He still has that potential.
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He also came off an injury and could still be battling an injury. I am not going to judge Savoie off of 29 games after just being drafted. That would be asinine.(To think this is the finished product)
 
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jc17 said:
But reinhart stinks again so the people saying he was a bust were right all along :sarcasm:

One key difference in my mind is production relative to teammates. Still not perfect by any means, but I feel like its held some weight in the past.

Sam's 1.38 came with his highest scoring teammates at 1.17ish.

Point was at 1.45 with the next teammate at 1.2.

Savoie is at 1.27 with a teammate at 1.36 and another younger teammate at 1.54.

Does it mean savoie is a bust? Of course not. The injuries, and special teams probably play a role as the other poster pointed out. However, I think the level of team production is a large caveat that can't be overlooked when comparing him to other guys with a drop in numbers
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Eh I don't think teammate relativity plays a role if the case is that he's concentrating on making the NHL next year but team production plays into everyone's stats I suppose.
 
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