Prospect Info: C/RW Matthew Savoie, 9th Overall, 2022 NHL Draft - Traded to Moose Jaw 1/4/24

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No, not at all. If anything, he’s closer to being done developing than a project.
In the draft video the scouts are seen talking about this pick and land on him because of his upside. Maybe the word project that the other poster used isn't spot on, but the idea that the other 2 guys are "safer " could ring true.
 
Let's worry about that when he starts to dominate all the time at the tier he is at.
(Not an excuse for Savoie):

I did a deep dive on this. If we rule out guys who went before 9 (Kasper, Cooley) and Nazar who has 0 games because he's been hurt, the entire pack of forwards we threw around aren't having great DY+1 years.

Geekie is having a similar year to Savoie.

Kemell, Lekker, Ohgren are all having a pretty bad year outright.

Only my boy Rutger McGroarty is doing well (and Ostlund is ok, funny enough)
 
(Not an excuse for Savoie):

I did a deep dive on this. If we rule out guys who went before 9 (Kasper, Cooley) and Nazar who has 0 games because he's been hurt, the entire pack of forwards we threw around aren't having great DY+1 years.

Geekie is having a similar year to Savoie.

Kemell, Lekker, Ohgren are all having a pretty bad year outright.

Only my boy Rutger McGroarty is doing well (and Ostlund is ok, funny enough)

Snuggerud is also having a nice D+1. It's relatively early in the season and there is a lot of runway for Savoie to get his game going in the right direction.
 
He's got 26pts in 21 games if HockeyDB is up to date...he's not doing well though? What am I missing? I understand points aren't always indicative of success and he's dropped .14ppg since last year on pace but when he's at 1.25 overall that wouldn't seem to indicate, to me, he's doing poorly or doing much worse somehow.
 
He's got 26pts in 21 games if HockeyDB is up to date...he's not doing well though? What am I missing? I understand points aren't always indicative of success and he's dropped .14ppg since last year on pace but when he's at 1.25 overall that wouldn't seem to indicate, to me, he's doing poorly or doing much worse somehow.
In the CHL a year makes a big difference. You're playing against kids that are ages 16-20, so when you're 18 turning 19, you're expected to dominate. Having a regression in points from one year to a next is a bit of a red flag. If you go and look the history of players that regressed in points from their DY to D+1 - the success rate is not great. Sam Reinhart did and he turned out mostly fine - however one could argue he hasn't exactly lived up to the number 2 overall pick.
 
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Snuggerud is also having a nice D+1. It's relatively early in the season and there is a lot of runway for Savoie to get his game going in the right direction.
I've caught a few Gophers games (Huglen/RyJo) and Snuggerud was particularly noticeable in those viewings. The puck just seemed to find him.
 
I've caught a few Gophers games (Huglen/RyJo) and Snuggerud was particularly noticeable in those viewings. The puck just seemed to find him.

I've seen them four or five times and yeah, he has that knack of having the puck find him, being in the right stop and generally making smart plays.
 
Reinhart went back to the WHL after he was drafted and had less points then previous seasons because the Sabres kept in communication with him wanting him to play a more NHL style.

The same is probably being done with Savoie, we also knew when drafting him he was a project with extreme potential.
 
In the CHL a year makes a big difference. You're playing against kids that are ages 16-20, so when you're 18 turning 19, you're expected to dominate. Having a regression in points from one year to a next is a bit of a red flag. If you go and look the history of players that regressed in points from their DY to D+1 - the success rate is not great. Sam Reinhart did and he turned out mostly fine - however one could argue he hasn't exactly lived up to the number 2 overall pick.
He was scoring at a higher per game rate over last season until he hit his current 4 game pointless streak. There are still plenty of games left in the season for him to break that streak and start producing again. Major shoulder surgery in the offseason is also something to keep in mind. Who knows if he has been 100% back to normal, sometimes those things can cause stiffness for months afterward and take up to a year to feel normal again.
 
He was scoring at a higher per game rate over last season until he hit his current 4 game pointless streak. There are still plenty of games left in the season for him to break that streak and start producing again. Major shoulder surgery in the offseason is also something to keep in mind. Who knows if he has been 100% back to normal, sometimes those things can cause stiffness for months afterward and take up to a year to feel normal again.
And he was scoring less than last years pace until he had a 6 point night. He’s been pretty inconsistent. I’m not saying he’s a bust, just that his season isn’t one that you’d like to see if you’re expecting him to jump into the NHL next year
 
And he was scoring less than last years pace until he had a 6 point night. He’s been pretty inconsistent. I’m not saying he’s a bust, just that his season isn’t one that you’d like to see if you’re expecting him to jump into the NHL next year
We don't have to rush him to the NHL next year. We will probably see him again in training camp, maybe even get his 9 games if he impresses Granato and then they decide what to do.
 
In the CHL a year makes a big difference. You're playing against kids that are ages 16-20, so when you're 18 turning 19, you're expected to dominate. Having a regression in points from one year to a next is a bit of a red flag. If you go and look the history of players that regressed in points from their DY to D+1 - the success rate is not great. Sam Reinhart did and he turned out mostly fine - however one could argue he hasn't exactly lived up to the number 2 overall pick.
I get where you're coming from, but it's a small downtick in a small sample, after a 4 game pointless streak. Given the surgery as others have mentioned, shouldn't that be expected rather than a red flag?
 
Reinhart went back to the WHL after he was drafted and had less points then previous seasons because the Sabres kept in communication with him wanting him to play a more NHL style.

The same is probably being done with Savoie, we also knew when drafting him he was a project with extreme potential.
That's not it, until recently Savoie has been predominantly a perimeter player. He's barely attacked the center of the ice, basically been tentative aka gun shy. He's playing more like his old self as if he's trusting his shoulder more
 
I get where you're coming from, but it's a small downtick in a small sample, after a 4 game pointless streak. Given the surgery as others have mentioned, shouldn't that be expected rather than a red flag?
The surgery is a wildcard. It could have an impact, or it could be his healthy play. Not real easy to know

Here's what I found in terms of top 15 OHL/WHL guys that dropped in primary point production from DY to d+1. Some good players, more bad. Might be worth noting that Jarvis, Reinhart, and Draisaitl all had really high draft years, which makes a drop more understandable. Savoie not too far behind, but not quite with those 3. I'll have to find out 5v5 and total points.

1669681356867.png
 
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I feel out of everyone I lost the most when the Sabres didn't trade back for Snuggerud.
Your personal branding may have taken a lost opportunity cost hit, but we can’t discount how fun it’ll be to just randomly yell out matty savWAH when he does something cool on the ice.
 
FWIW I posted in the Winnipeg Ice thread, got a response saying that they haven’t noticed Savoie in particular playing bad + the flu bug has been going around. Could be a part of it. Expect a better week this week.

Edit: wanted to add this thread

 
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I don’t even think it’s a big enough sample to be worried yet. His talent didn’t just magically disappear. Think he’ll be fine this season
 
In the CHL a year makes a big difference. You're playing against kids that are ages 16-20, so when you're 18 turning 19, you're expected to dominate. Having a regression in points from one year to a next is a bit of a red flag. If you go and look the history of players that regressed in points from their DY to D+1 - the success rate is not great. Sam Reinhart did and he turned out mostly fine - however one could argue he hasn't exactly lived up to the number 2 overall pick.

Yeah but the ice is stacked with forward talent, Savoie ain't getting all the offensive opportunities vs. Benson.

We always knew the 2023 draft was much stronger, that's just one example of it. Savoie's dev curve will be filled with ups & down because of his size, but I'm quite confident he will prevail in the end.
 
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