C Quinton Byfield (2020, 2nd, LAK) part IV

[bert]

How is being PPG in the AHL in our D+3 season a good thing exactly?

Not saying he's a bust, but for a 2nd OA pick, you assume he'll be PPG+ n the AHL as soon as D+1... Not D+3

Not every player has the same development curve. He was a late birthday for his draft and is a very big person it was never going to be automatic. It was always going to take a while. He will get there.

I often hear that but there is confusion. This pattern holds true for hard-working big players who aspire to break into bottom 6. In 2016/17, Byfield was the best player in the world born in 2002. Year after year, his performance declines relative to his age.

The big elite players, on the contrary, dominate more easily than the small size from their debut in the NHL.

From their first NHL seasons, Lindros, Kopitar and Malkin dominated.

100 percent innacurate. There are way more examples of players that were bigger that took longer to develop. Joe Thornton, Tage Thompson, Nick Paul, Mika Zibanejad, Todd Bertuzzi, Jerome Iginla, Zdeno Chara the list goes on and on.

Lindros is a complete freak not the same thing. Malkins rookie year was in his D +3 where he was a 20 year old. Yes he is better than Byfield but is that the standard?....

 

[Mersss]

Not every player has the same development curve. He was a late birthday for his draft and is a very big person it was never going to be automatic. It was always going to take a while. He will get there.


100 percent innacurate.

It's getting very late guy isn't event dominant in the AHL

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Byfield is a D+3 now and barelly gets PPG in the AHL. You're not helping your case

My case is that it's rare for D+1, and D+2 players to be PPG in the AHL. Not as you so confidently suggest should be routine:

How is being PPG in the AHL in our D+3 season a good thing exactly?

Not saying he's a bust, but for a 2nd OA pick, you assume he'll be PPG+ n the AHL as soon as D+1... Not D+3

Having never seen him play I have no strong opinions about his development.

 

[unicornpig]

It's getting very late guy isn't event dominant in the AHL

god youre dumb

 

[bert]

It's getting very late guy isn't event dominant in the AHL

No its not. Thats just the thing.... Its the opposite of early. Most of the draft class is playing in their first NHL games this year. He only turned 20 years old 4 months ago. He isnt even done growing into his body. Go ahead and hate on him all you want its likely going to blow up in your face. Him playing in the AHL is probably the best thing for his development right now.

 

[Fatass]

Not every player has the same development curve. He was a late birthday for his draft and is a very big person it was never going to be automatic. It was always going to take a while. He will get there.


100 percent innacurate. There are way more examples of players that were bigger that took longer to develop. Joe Thornton, Tage Thompson, Nick Paul, Mika Zibanejad, Todd Bertuzzi, Jerome Iginla, Zdeno Chara the list goes on and on.

Lindros is a complete freak not the same thing. Malkins rookie year was in his D +3 where he was a 20 year old. Yes he is better than Byfield but is that the standard?....

At the junior level wasn’t QB a lot bigger and more physically developed than the guys he was up against? I think in his case his huge strength advantage got hm isn’t some habits that don’t work against NHL players. He is now learning how to play against men. Seems like he’s doing okay too.

 

[bert]

At the junior level wasn’t QB a lot bigger and more physically developed than the guys he was up against? I think in his case his huge strength advantage got hm isn’t some habits that don’t work against NHL players. He is now learning how to play against men. Seems like he’s doing okay too.

I dont think so all of his games came as a 16 and 17 year old he was an underage. He may have been bigger but less developed, most players are older than that in JR. I think its just a matter of him growing into his body. He looked notably faster this year in the games I watched.

 

[Fatass]

I dont think so all of his games came as a 16 and 17 year old he was an underage. He may have been bigger but less developed, most players are older than that in JR. I think its just a matter of him growing into his body. He looked notably faster this year in the games I watched.

Wasn’t he well over 200 pounds in junior? It’s likely a combination of bad habits, because he was so much bigger, and that he’s still maturing.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

screeeeeeech go the goalposts, as usual

Byfield is a D+3 now and barelly gets PPG in the AHL. You're not helping your case

Not-so-gentle reminder that he's in the AHL on a conditioning assignment because he was sick and lost 20 lbs, not because he's not good enough.

He's over PPG if you are willing to let him get his legs under him, but he's PPG if not.

Wasn’t he well over 200 pounds in junior? It’s likely a combination of bad habits, because he was so much bigger, and that he’s still maturing.

I dont' remember his junior weight but one of the criticisms was he has the size and doesn't use it, he was a beanpole his first camp and getting ragdolled by pros

fast forward to now and he's just starting to grasp his size, he was manhandling NHLers on the wall when he got sick and the best is undoubtedly yet to come.

 

[BKarchitect]

Tage Thompson is probably a timely reminder not to write off skilled big forwards too early.

It took Tage until his 24 year-old season to turn into a star. I can’t imagine how insufferable this thread will get if Byfield takes 4 more years (age 20 now) to reach that kind of breakout.

 

[Akrapovince]

This is going to be a fun thread to revisit as early as a couple of years.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

I’m very harsh on Byfield but he’s taking a good step forward in his development this year. He’s playing very well for the Reign in the AHL.

If he stays on this trajectory he will be a force in the NHL in a couple years.

 

[Dempsey]

It's getting very late guy isn't event dominant in the AHL

You're out to lunch. 7 goals in 10 games as a 20-year-old in the AHL is extremely good. Most players are just starting their pro careers at Byfield's current age, and he's still one of the youngest in the AHL as he is an August birthday.

 

[Reddawg]

When Byfield was sent down:

“I’ve always said I don’t think anybody should lose their spot to injury or illness, it’s outside of their control,” McLellan said

Well Mr. McLellan- clearly Byfield has…he has played well enough to have his spot back that you took from him due to illness…

The only entity that isn’t better off seeing Byfield dominate the AHL for the rest of the season is Q’s wallet. The player and both teams benefit greatly.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Also, a good reminder to everyone that TMac is an absolute dope and has no clue how to manage LA’s plethora of prospects right now.

 

[surixon]

Wasn’t he well over 200 pounds in junior? It’s likely a combination of bad habits, because he was so much bigger, and that he’s still maturing.

His game in junior revolved mostly on speed through the nz and transition offense. He didn't actually use his size/physicality all that much in junior which imo is one of the reasons he's had some issues translating. So much of the pro game is based on battling in the trenches, creating space for yourself. NHL teams don't often give you the space to wind up through the nz which is what his bread and butter was in junior. He essentially has to build a new set of skills using the tools he has in order to hold onto pucks, shield players off the pucks and to get into the prime scoring areas. He's got some pretty darn good tools and the kid is making progress from what I've seen. Give him another year and he starts to look good at the NHL level.

 

[ponder]

Tage Thompson is probably a timely reminder not to write off skilled big forwards too early.

It took Tage until his 24 year-old season to turn into a star. I can’t imagine how insufferable this thread will get if Byfield takes 4 more years (age 20 now) to reach that kind of breakout.

Agreed, and Tage is also a great stylistic comp for Byfield. Both huge centres with high end skill (skating, hands and shot), but more of a finesse game than a power game. Took Tage awhile to polish his skills and learn to impose his will game in, game out, but now he’s a dominant player. I think Byfield has a legit shot to get there too, he’s got similar skills/tools to same age Tage, and is IMO a bit ahead of 20 year old Tage development wise.

 

[Sol]

When Byfield was sent down:

“I’ve always said I don’t think anybody should lose their spot to injury or illness, it’s outside of their control,” McLellan said

Well Mr. McLellan- clearly Byfield has…he has played well enough to have his spot back that you took from him due to illness…

Losing his spot was the best thing for him because he was doing nothing on the line up

 

[Osprey]

Losing his spot was the best thing for him because he was doing nothing on the line up

It was a fluke thing, as well. He just happened to get sick, lose a bunch of weight and need a conditioning stint. If he hadn't, he likely never would've been sent down and would still be playing less than 12 minutes on the 3rd line because Kings management thinks that that's best for him. I think that it's clear that they're wrong and that being in the AHL in a top role and dominating is the best thing for him. I have doubts that management will realize that, though, and am afraid that they're going to call him back up any week now, just when he's hottest and most comfortable down there, and he'll go right back to how he was before.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

His game in junior revolved mostly on speed through the nz and transition offense. He didn't actually use his size/physicality all that much in junior which imo is one of the reasons he's had some issues translating. So much of the pro game is based on battling in the trenches, creating space for yourself. NHL teams don't often give you the space to wind up through the nz which is what his bread and butter was in junior. He essentially has to build a new set of skills using the tools he has in order to hold onto pucks, shield players off the pucks and to get into the prime scoring areas. He's got some pretty darn good tools and the kid is making progress from what I've seen. Give him another year and he starts to look good at the NHL level.

He's had a great model for that in Kopitar, the way he started using his edges out of the corners and shielding the puck absorbing a check while gaining speed is Kopitar's favorite power move and that alone has brought him huge benefit this year. It'll be interesting to see how much of that he can add and use because what he's done in one offseason with using his body vs pro men has been VERY impressive and probably his greatest point of growth.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Didn't realize they were also 6 foot 5 and 220, players that tend to take longer to develop.

Keep seeing this posted all the time. Is there any actual data to support this for forwards?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Keep seeing this posted all the time. Is there any actual data to support this for forwards?

You were quoted on--and responded directly to--this post from earlier Byfield discussion:

Fantasy Hockey guru "Dobber" has developed a formula to calculate players Breakout Threshold.

You can probably find informations about it online on his free stuff, but it is well explained in the yearly Fantasy guides he sell.

If I remember correctly he had first used all the stats from every NHL players going back +50 years and figured out that the majority of players' breakout happened on average on their 4th season playing in the NHL.


Over the years he's refined his formula with some help from his community to arrive at something that was more accurate :

- An average-sized player (between 5'10 and 6'2, or between 171 and 214 pounds) will start to break through after 200 regular season games.

-Smaller-sized (less than 5'10 / 171) AND Bigger-size players (more than 6'2 / 214) need 400 NHL regular season games.


This proved to be somewhat accurate in like 70-75% of players with them breaking out in some ways around those two threshold.

It is an average and not an exact science as it can happen around game 355 for some players or game 445 for some others. It is harder to predict if the 6'2 / 6'3 players will follow the 200 or 400 GP paths.
And depending on talent players break out in different ways than others.

I do a lot of winning in Dynasty Fantasy Hockey leagues and one of the main rule I follow is to never quit on a prospect before he pass his Breakout Threshold to see if he's got another gear.

This is why I didn't quit on Robert Thomas last year, and this is why I won't quit on Filip Zadina this year.
This is also why I acquired Noah Hanifin for cheap last offseason while he was sitting at 436 GP thinking he hadn't hit his BT yet.

Sean Couturier didn't have elite production before his 7th NHL season after 416 GP and I expect the same kind of timeline for Quinton Byfield.

 

[Quinton Byfield]

Jason f***in' Robertson wasn't even PPG in the AHL in his d+3. I swear some people just wanna hate on this kid.

There's no such thing as a 20 year old bust.

 

[MateORome]

Not every player has the same development curve. He was a late birthday for his draft and is a very big person it was never going to be automatic. It was always going to take a while. He will get there.


100 percent innacurate. There are way more examples of players that were bigger that took longer to develop. Joe Thornton, Tage Thompson, Nick Paul, Mika Zibanejad, Todd Bertuzzi, Jerome Iginla, Zdeno Chara the list goes on and on.

Lindros is a complete freak not the same thing. Malkins rookie year was in his D +3 where he was a 20 year old. Yes he is better than Byfield but is that the standard?....

Either you're quoting players who were already settled in Byfield's current age, or you're quoting low-selected laborious talent that falls into the category I define, either you're talking about a defender, or you're talking about a player who isn't not elite.

At U21, Byfield has yet to break into the LA Kings squad, which is not, however, overloaded with talent. A few years ago, he was way ahead of the others. The delay, it comes from these last years.

 

[GrizzGreen]

Jason f***in' Robertson wasn't even PPG in the AHL in his d+3. I swear some people just wanna hate on this kid.

There's no such thing as a 20 year old bust.

Second round picks are expected to take a longer development path... I really don't understand how that's difficult to understand

Tage Thompson was a late 1st rounder

Hope QB can put it together but there's a reason for the added scrutiny.