C Quinton Byfield (2020, 2nd, LAK) part IV

[cjeagle]

Are you worried Byfield is catching up?

Maybe in a few years.

 

[ORRFForever]

A few more goals like that and we'll be hearing Calder talk.

 

[Bank Shot]

Did he even touch that puck?

I don't think he did...

 

[Martyros]

People just expect Byfield to put up close to a ppg out of the gate because of his size, and draft position. He has both the Kopitar and Danault lines way ahead of him with absolutely no need to break them up. He's just left with anchors on his line that force him to drive the play with little support. Because of this, he turns over the puck more often than not. He plays more towards a speedy/drive game as opposed to using his size/strength. The points will come when he gets more comfortable. He had an awful game against the yotes, but created a few of his own opportunities tonight. He's not on the Wings or the Senators to have such impact as the other rookies have had (and that's no knock on them, not by the least). Those who watch his game, see that he is something special with the little ice time he gets; those who don't watch him just look at his point total and start threads about how he may not be living up to his hype.

 

[apocalypse]

I'll take Byfield over anyone in that draft, easy.

 

[kilowatt]

I agree. A player with a similar build and tools at 6'5" former Redwing Anthony Mantha also had difficulty adjusting to the NHL early in his career not making the Redwings until 2 years after he was drafted and leading to Redwings VP Devellano making this comment:

“Very, very, very disappointing,” said Devellano, per FOX Sports Detroit. “And I say that with a lot of sadness. Coming out of junior, we had such high hopes for him.”

Mantha eventually became a top line forward for Detroit leading the team in goals by his 4th year with the Redwings.

The big difference is that Mantha was drafted 20th overall in his draft, so he didn't bring the same amount of expectation as Byfield has after being drafted 2nd overall. If we ignore how high in the draft he was picked and just consider that he still has all the tools to succeed, Byfield might surprise us a few years down the road.

Devellano sounds like a dumbass

 

[ORRFForever]

Did he even touch that puck?

I don't think he did...

I think it grazed his foot.

The great ones always make it look easy.

 

[cjeagle]

Devellano sounds like a dumbass

He was a bit premature in his assessment(he should have kept his opinion to himself) but Mantha did come with high expectations as a dominant goalscorer in the junior leagues. It just took him time to adjust to the NHL level.

Even after breaking out Mantha still has a tendency to be a streaky goalscorer running hot and cold when he was with the Redwings as well as with the Capitals after he was traded to them.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

I'll take Byfield over anyone in that draft, easy.

Smart man.

 

[WADEugottaBELAKthat]

In LA’s defence the draft was so full of top-end prospects that by the end of it they are bound to have “chosen wrong”. We have not even really seen Rossi, Holtz, etc. do their thing.

I think Byfield is going to be fine. But for the time being the proof is in the pudding - he is not yet at the level of some of the others. Let’s see that some points and confidence can do.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

Can any LA fans explain whats going on with player development over there?

Seems like all of their best prospects are struggling badly in the NHL? Byfield, Vilardi, Kaliyev, Bjornfoot, Anderson. Turcotte is getting lapped by Zegras and others from his draft (but still seems to be doing well in the minors fwiw). But the problem definitely doesnt seem like its with the Reign, seems like somethings rotten up top. No?

Not much is going on.

Vilardi shouldnt be in the AHL. After a solid first season he got demoted after 7 games and is logically tearing up the points now there.

Turc is underwhelming.

Bjornfot, Kaliyev and Anderson are a major part of the current team. How are they struggling badly ? LA is surprisingly in a playoff spot.

Weird.

 

[bsu]

I'll take Byfield over anyone in that draft, easy.

That's nice of you.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I mean that goal at least dispels the notion he only scores on the rush, right?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

In LA’s defence the draft was so full of top-end prospects that by the end of it they are bound to have “chosen wrong”. We have not even really seen Rossi, Holtz, etc. do their thing.

I think Byfield is going to be fine. But for the time being the proof is in the pudding - he is not yet at the level of some of the others. Let’s see that some points and confidence can do.

I have zero problem with anyone saying other prospects are taking off earlier. I think practically everyone expected that.

When people say he's busting or his trajectory sucks, though, that's just someone looking at the stats page and jumping to conclusions.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I'm looking back at some other 'big guy' trajectories and I know these aren't perfect fits/comps--who is, really?--but I find it interesting that, like other prospects, they tend to have a slow start from 18-20ish before taking a big step at 21ish....and then another large step around 23ish. It's also worth noting their increasing ice time (role?) as well as auxiliary stats like faceoffs. Some of them, like Wheeler, take ANOTHER large step in their late 20s. I can see Byfield doing this. He's gotta get used to his body and man strength, and this is a guy who seemed to not WANT to hit for a while (I still can't find the article but I remember a coach saying he used a short stick to hunch over on purpose because he was getting penalized every time he'd hit someone in AAA). It's gonna take some time to use THAT tool against men, some more time to get his 'true' adult strength, and probably a little more time to realize how special he is athletically.

Draisaitl:

Wheeler:

Barkov:

Tuch:

Greenway:

So, totally just my estimation, but I think given a full healthy year from byfield and 'normal' usage instead of this year's dog shit stew, it would be fair to expect 40-50 points from Byfield at least, with an outside chance of a larger jump, but I think the larger jump to 70+ is going to happen in 2-3 more years.

 

[cjeagle]

Isles hate the Rags so much they're trying to get Byfield going to make Laf look bad. Good on 'em, that's how you rivalry.

The Devils even has a bigger bone to pick over the Rangers since their pick in the first round at #18 rookie Dawson Mercer with 29 points is doing much better than #1 pick Lafreniere.

 

[93LEAFS]

I'm looking back at some other 'big guy' trajectories and I know these aren't perfect fits/comps--who is, really?--but I find it interesting that, like other prospects, they tend to have a slow start from 18-20ish before taking a big step at 21ish....and then another large step around 23ish. It's also worth noting their increasing ice time (role?) as well as auxiliary stats like faceoffs. Some of them, like Wheeler, take ANOTHER large step in their late 20s. I can see Byfield doing this. He's gotta get used to his body and man strength, and this is a guy who seemed to not WANT to hit for a while (I still can't find the article but I remember a coach saying he used a short stick to hunch over on purpose because he was getting penalized every time he'd hit someone in AAA). It's gonna take some time to use THAT tool against men, some more time to get his 'true' adult strength, and probably a little more time to realize how special he is athletically.

Draisaitl:
View attachment 511121

Wheeler:
View attachment 511123

Barkov:
View attachment 511124

Tuch:
View attachment 511125

Greenway:
View attachment 511127

So, totally just my estimation, but I think given a full healthy year from byfield and 'normal' usage instead of this year's dog shit stew, it would be fair to expect 40-50 points from Byfield at least, with an outside chance of a larger jump, but I think the larger jump to 70+ is going to happen in 2-3 more years.

You have other guys like Matthews who is the same build as some of these guys who took off right away. Laine had a huge rookie year. And, sort of ignores the guys who never really did like Dylan Strome, Lawson Crouse, Pavel Zacha, Nick Ritchie, Dal Colle, and Paajarvi. But, in the positives you can add RyJo and Couturier as guys who broke out in their D+3 or later.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

You have other guys like Matthews who is the same build as some of these guys who took off right away. Laine had a huge rookie year. And, sort of ignores the guys who never really did like Dylan Strome, Lawson Crouse, Pavel Zacha, Nick Ritchie, Dal Colle, and Paajarvi. But, in the positives you can add RyJo and Couturier as guys who broke out in their D+3 or later.

Yes--I think the point is that everyone is really different but that there are examples of big guys who absolutely blow up much later. I think Byfield especially was one we always thought that about, ie it's not a surprise to see a slow burn instead of explosive growth. I knew I forgot someone in Couturier, RyJo as well. Especially as high draft picks who endured the years of 'is he a bust' talk.

 

[ORRFForever]

A Top 50 players is the floor for Q.B. (in 5 - 7 years) given his toolset.

 

[bsu]

A Top 50 players is the floor for Q.B. (in 5 - 7 years) given his toolset.

Not the floor but he does have the potential.

 

[93LEAFS]

Yes--I think the point is that everyone is really different but that there are examples of big guys who absolutely blow up much later. I think Byfield especially was one we always thought that about, ie it's not a surprise to see a slow burn instead of explosive growth. I knew I forgot someone in Couturier, RyJo as well. Especially as high draft picks who endured the years of 'is he a bust' talk.

I'd be curious to see how much it actually differs from usual prospect progression or whether its anecdotal. For example, Jack Hughes took 3 years to blow up. Now, this could just be a bias at the top of the draft of taking bigger rawer kids making them likely to have longer development curves if they even reach near the high-end of their potential. Other bigger guys pretty good off the bat (or within their first 2 seasons post draft) would include Rick Nash, Jason Spezza, Ilya Kovalchuk, and Ovechkin. Malkin was a beast the second he walked into the league but it was his draft +3.

 

[ORRFForever]

Not the floor but he does have the potential.

I disagree. Minus injury, I think his floor is pretty high - he just needs time. Top 50 is not too much to ask.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I'd be curious to see how much it actually differs from usual prospect progression or whether its anecdotal. For example, Jack Hughes took 3 years to blow up. Now, this could just be a bias at the top of the draft of taking bigger rawer kids making them likely to have longer development curves if they even reach near the high-end of their potential. Other bigger guys pretty good off the bat (or within their first 2 seasons post draft) would include Rick Nash, Jason Spezza, Ilya Kovalchuk, and Ovechkin. Malkin was a beast the second he walked into the league but it was his draft +3.

Yeah, my casual look is far from a formal analysis. And as you point out every time we come up with even a barely general 'rule' it's easy to come up with 5 exceptions off the top of our heads.

With a guy like Byfield I think we're making some fair assumptions, though. Like man oh man, is the base toolset ever there, but you have a guy who was used to being 'the guy' and could take risks and play loose and kind of get away with it. He's no slouch defensively, but imagine the detail in his game learning form Kopitar and Danault on everything from how to use your frame to protect the puck to faceoff tips to stickwork. Some of the offensive/release tips he can pick up from Kempe or Kaliyev, or puckhandling in traffic and on the boards from Moore or any of the legacy Kings. The guy was just completely raw and still is and he's still a threat every time he steps on the ice just on tools and base instinct alone.

There was a point last night where he was off the bench and in 3 steps had a breakaway. That's the kind of stuff that can't be taught that has us all giddy. And man if he had buried that, suddenly a guy who 'isn't impressing' has 3 points in 2 games.

 

[bsu]

Are the Kings going to leave him in NHL for rest of season?

 

[ORRFForever]

Are the Kings going to leave him in NHL for rest of season?

I suggested having him play at the World Juniors in August in the LA Forum and it did not go over well.

We need some GOOD news on this kid.