C Nolan Patrick - Brandon Wheat Kings, WHL (2017 Draft)

[Daximus]

This draft looks bad for a bunch of reasons. Particularly the fact when McKenzie polled scouts only 2 players were in everyones top 10, and it wasn't due to depth.

I'd say its the fact in the last 4 years there have been 4 center prospects people that people think were better prospects entering their draft year (Mackinnon, Matthews, Eichel and McDavid) and all followed it up with amazing draft years has hurt the hype around Patrick. But as pointed out, he keeps scoring like this on a team that lost a bunch of players, and has a strong WJC, people will be raving about him come draft lottery. Remember, P. Kane and Ekblad were supposed to be weak #1's, they don't all end up like Yak and Stefan, or in the middle ground like RNH.

I still think this draft is going to provide some insane depth. Patrick is probably a tier above everyone else in this draft and two tiers below the McDavid tier and one tier below the Matthews/Eichel tier. But I do think he is right up there with the Laine/Puljujarvi tier.
But everyone else in this draft is still pretty damn solid. The Center, Defencemen and Goalie depth is pretty damn good.

 

[Daximus]

He's a very good prospect. But I bought this up in the late birthday thread. Patrick is picking up where he left off last year. There is no doubt he is benefitting from his age and experience being a late birthday this draft. Doesn't make him a lesser prospect, but he has a decided advantage this season.

Nolan Patrick's stats last season. I would surmise he will be closer to 2PPG than 1PPG as he ended the year at last season.

September 2GP 0P
October 13GP 21P
November 10GP 6P
December 12 GP 16P (1.16 Sept-Dec first 37 games)
January 13GP 13P
February 13GP 26P
March 9GP 20P (1.69PPG Jan-Mar Last 46 games)

He'll likely miss time due to the WJC's as well and hopefully he stays injury free throughout this campaign. But him finishing with 100 points even with a WJC appearance isn't out of the question by any means IMO.

 

[CorgisPer60]

I still think this draft is going to provide some insane depth. Patrick is probably a tier above everyone else in this draft and two tiers below the McDavid tier and one tier below the Matthews/Eichel tier. But I do think he is right up there with the Laine/Puljujarvi tier.
But everyone else in this draft is still pretty damn solid. The Center, Defencemen and Goalie depth is pretty damn good.

Let's hope Chevy is in a position to draft a good defenseman then.

 

[93LEAFS]

I still think this draft is going to provide some insane depth. Patrick is probably a tier above everyone else in this draft and two tiers below the McDavid tier and one tier below the Matthews/Eichel tier. But I do think he is right up there with the Laine/Puljujarvi tier.
But everyone else in this draft is still pretty damn solid. The Center, Defencemen and Goalie depth is pretty damn good.

After two years of terrible RHD corps, that is the one thing I am excited about. Obviously, Patrick too, but I'm a Leafs fan, its a miracle we didn't flip at 4 at the lotto when it was us or the oilers, I'm not expecting the lotto gods again to pull our way. I expect Leafs to be in the top 10, so obviously I'm following it closely. Patrick looks to be in the position to be a front to back 1OA this year. I haven't seen enough of Patrick to strongly disagree with the scouts, but I do feel Bobby Mac's article undersold him, similar to how people talked about Ekblad (top pairing potential, but not a bonafide #1). I saw him at the Memorial Cup and he struggled (but it's a 3 game sample size against the best teams), but from what else I've seen, I think he's a center prospect in the Barkov tier, maybe grouped with someone like Dylan Strome (I like Patrick over Strome though due to his more aggressive nature and significantly better skating at comparable points), so maybe Strome belongs more with the Bennett's, Reinhart's and Draisaitl's. The things I really like about Patrick is he doesn't have a clear weakness (similar to Matthews) but has areas he could improve like his stride. He has a great release on the rush which I think people sleep on when they talk about him as an intangibles guy (Matthews stick handling got downplayed by similar claims). While his shot won't wow you like Laine's, I do think Patrick's shot and ability to shoot accurately while moving towards the net gives him 35+ goal potential. That is a #1C and a guy who should be in the discussion for 1OA most years.

The goalie depth in this draft is absolutely insane, if Leafs get some more picks by being sellers at the deadline I would love to take one in a similar spot as we took Woll. I almost feel a goalie won't go high, because everyone feels comfortable waiting it out. This draft does seem to have a good amount of balance, its weakest area seems to be LHD.

 

[Daximus]

Let's hope Chevy is in a position to draft a good defenseman then.

The top 2 Dmen are RHD which is awesome to have in a draft. But even my 3rd to 8th ranked defencemen are real solid. And all possible 1st rounders.

After two years of terrible RHD corps, that is the one thing I am excited about. Obviously, Patrick too, but I'm a Leafs fan, its a miracle we didn't flip at 4 at the lotto when it was us or the oilers, I'm not expecting the lotto gods again to pull our way. I expect Leafs to be in the top 10, so obviously I'm following it closely. Patrick looks to be in the position to be a front to back 1OA this year. I haven't seen enough of Patrick to strongly disagree with the scouts, but I do feel Bobby Mac's article undersold him, similar to how people talked about Ekblad (top pairing potential, but not a bonafide #1). I saw him at the Memorial Cup and he struggled (but it's a 3 game sample size against the best teams), but from what else I've seen, I think he's a center prospect in the Barkov tier, maybe grouped with someone like Dylan Strome (I like Patrick over Strome though due to his more aggressive nature and significantly better skating at comparable points), so maybe Strome belongs more with the Bennett's, Reinhart's and Draisaitl's. The things I really like about Patrick is he doesn't have a clear weakness (similar to Matthews) but has areas he could improve like his stride. He has a great release on the rush which I think people sleep on when they talk about him as an intangibles guy (Matthews stick handling got downplayed by similar claims). While his shot won't wow you like Laine's, I do think Patrick's shot and ability to shoot accurately while moving towards the net gives him 35+ goal potential. That is a #1C and a guy who should be in the discussion for 1OA most years.

The goalie depth in this draft is absolutely insane, if Leafs get some more picks by being sellers at the deadline I would love to take one in a similar spot as we took Woll. I almost feel a goalie won't go high, because everyone feels comfortable waiting it out. This draft does seem to have a good amount of balance, its weakest area seems to be LHD.

His whole team at that Memorial Cup was bad. I try not to hold that one against him. He is definitely in the Barkov tier for me as well. Probably has a better offensive game with his shot than Barkov does. But I think Barkov has better shutdown abilities. Patrick definitely has a mean streak. He's fought in all 3 games I've seen him in this year. I think that is one thing that can separate him from a few other 1st overalls with his potential as he is a bigger guy in the WHL which usually means he's going to be a scrapper. It's just the mentality here. Patrick's biggest weakness will likely be that he is playing in the WHL. I think it may take him some adjustment time. He'll probably be better suited to a 3rd line defensive role to start. Many will assume this means he is a slow learner but the adaption from the WHL to the NHL is a bigger step than it is for the OHL and QMJHL. If he adapts quicker than that he may be a better player than even I imagined. His shot is pretty elite already and coupled with his IQ, vision, passing abilities and stick work on the defensive side of things he is an incredibly well rounded player. I'd be surprised if he doesn't become a 1C in the NHL within 3 years. Though that also depends on the depth chart of the team that drafts him.

I have to agree this years goalie depth is ridiculous. I think at least one guy goes top 35. I bet Vegas takes a goalie with their 2nd pick. Even with this drafts LHD weakness we have guys like Vaakanainen, Hague, Brannstrom and Samorukov. All of which show some decent potential and all of which I'd consider to be in the Bean, McAvoy, Johansen, Clague tier from the 2016 draft. And that is just the LHD.

 

[Zaddy]

The goalie depth in this draft is absolutely insane, if Leafs get some more picks by being sellers at the deadline I would love to take one in a similar spot as we took Woll. I almost feel a goalie won't go high, because everyone feels comfortable waiting it out. This draft does seem to have a good amount of balance, its weakest area seems to be LHD.

The LHD depth is not too bad either. No one is really being called an elite guy right now but between Samorukov, Hague, Paquette, Heiskanen, Vaakanainen, Välimäki, Salo, Gildon etc there's plenty of guys who can surge through the rankings if they have a good year. The first three guys I mention in particular IMO.

 

[Daximus]

The LHD depth is not too bad either. No one is really being called an elite guy right now but between Samorukov, Hague, Paquette, Heiskanen, Vaakanainen, Välimäki, Salo, Gildon etc there's plenty of guys who can surge through the rankings if they have a good year. The first three guys I mention in particular IMO.

I think Hague is the the common denominator on most peoples rankings. A 6'6 guy with his kind of physicality, skating and shooting abilities at his age are a rarity. Kid is an excellent puck rusher and solid on the PP. As much as many teams won't admit it, they all will be looking at him come draft day.

 

[93LEAFS]

The top 2 Dmen are RHD which is awesome to have in a draft. But even my 3rd to 8th ranked defencemen are real solid. And all possible 1st rounders.



His whole team at that Memorial Cup was bad. I try not to hold that one against him. He is definitely in the Barkov tier for me as well. Probably has a better offensive game with his shot than Barkov does. But I think Barkov has better shutdown abilities. Patrick definitely has a mean streak. He's fought in all 3 games I've seen him in this year. I think that is one thing that can separate him from a few other 1st overalls with his potential as he is a bigger guy in the WHL which usually means he's going to be a scrapper. It's just the mentality here. Patrick's biggest weakness will likely be that he is playing in the WHL. I think it may take him some adjustment time. He'll probably be better suited to a 3rd line defensive role to start. Many will assume this means he is a slow learner but the adaption from the WHL to the NHL is a bigger step than it is for the OHL and QMJHL. If he adapts quicker than that he may be a better player than even I imagined. His shot is pretty elite already and coupled with his IQ, vision, passing abilities and stick work on the defensive side of things he is an incredibly well rounded player. I'd be surprised if he doesn't become a 1C in the NHL within 3 years. Though that also depends on the depth chart of the team that drafts him.

I have to agree this years goalie depth is ridiculous. I think at least one guy goes top 35. I bet Vegas takes a goalie with their 2nd pick. Even with this drafts LHD weakness we have guys like Vaakanainen, Hague, Brannstrom and Samorukov. All of which show some decent potential and all of which I'd consider to be in the Bean, McAvoy, Johansen, Clague tier from the 2016 draft. And that is just the LHD.

I think the Q is actually the biggest step up. The physicality and defending isn't at the level of the WHL and OHL, only reason the gap wasn't massive for MacKinnon is that he probably entered the league and immediately became the best skater in it (or atleast top 5, similar to McDavid this year, but McDavid's IQ is on a whole other level). Its more realistic to look at the path of Drouin or Huberdeau.

The OHL probably has the most guys who can immediately make the jump, but I also think they have by-far the largest pool of talent, so top guys coming out of there are top guys. Not trying to say Ontario has the best players, but I think the OHL unlike the WHL and especially the Q, has had great success of pulling in USNDP guys and Americans in general, making a deeper league. The States the OHL draws from tend to be more willing to play in the CHL, while also being high-quality talent wise (NY, Michigan, Wisc, Pennsylvania and Missouri). Whereas for you guys pulling top kids out of Minnesota (as New England is for the Q) is near impossible and even some of your own best talent goes NCAA (Toews, Fabbro, Schwartz, Kariya, etc).

Weirdly, the WHL just hasn't had that elite #1 guy recently, RNH did well in his transition but has had his development stutter. Also, it seems the best products out the WHL in recent years tend to be D, who will always take longer (Jones, Murray, Rielly). Drai and Reinhart both looked pretty good this year in their D+2.

Either way, I'm excited to follow Patrick this year. I know by the time the draft comes around people won't be talking about him being a bad 1st overall, I just hope its for the reason he proved his doubters wrong, and not general draft hype. My guess is he enters the draft in the same tier as Hall and Seguin and slightly behind the Eichel, Stamkos, Matthews, and Tavares, and maybe on level with Mackinnon. I'm also not heavily weighting the memorial cup, it is just one of the better viewings (video quality wise) I've had, as I hate streaming games on a comp, so I mostly watch the QMJHL and OHL games I regularly get on my cable package (luckily, it seems I'm going to get a lot of Veleno games this year). So, I'm clearly hoping he gets on the WJC team, and Sportsnet picks up a couple of his Friday night games.

I feel a smart coach will break him in on a sheltered 3rd line that is used offensively, the game is changing to a top 9 with a grinder on each line than a classic Top 6, checking line and energy line.

 

[93LEAFS]

I think Hague is the the common denominator on most peoples rankings. A 6'6 guy with his kind of physicality, skating and shooting abilities at his age are a rarity. Kid is an excellent puck rusher and solid on the PP. As much as many teams won't admit it, they all will be looking at him come draft day.

I'll be looking at him all year, thanks to getting quite a few free Steelheads games to go to.

 

[landy92mack29]

Yeah Patrick is being extremely underrated right now. He's not on Matthews/Eichel level but he's a lot closer than people think. He's on par with Mackinnon in my mind prospect wise except they play different style of games that make them so effective. If people base their opinion of him on a 3 game sample size when he was playing through an injury that required surgery and when his entire team played awful that's just stupid.

It's also funny how not one of the talking heads has mentioned or retweeted the Patrick goal from last night when you know if it was McDavid/Eichel/Matthews or Patrick was from Ontario they'd be drooling all over it.

Also I think this draft is much deeper than last years but it doesn't have the high end talent like last years big 4(yes 4). Patrick is the only obvious one this year but there are so many great prospects this year that some will develop into more than people are expecting.

 

[93LEAFS]

Yeah Patrick is being extremely underrated right now. He's not on Matthews/Eichel level but he's a lot closer than people think. He's on par with Mackinnon in my mind prospect wise except they play different style of games that make them so effective. If people base their opinion of him on a 3 game sample size when he was playing through an injury that required surgery and when his entire team played awful that's just stupid.

It's also funny how not one of the talking heads has mentioned or retweeted the Patrick goal from last night when you know if it was McDavid/Eichel/Matthews or Patrick was from Ontario they'd be drooling all over it.

Also I think this draft is much deeper than last years but it doesn't have the high end talent like last years big 4(yes 4). Patrick is the only obvious one this year but there are so many great prospects this year that some will develop into more than people are expecting.

It is a shame that Liljegren and Vilardi started the year not at full health. Those are really the key guys in changing the perception at the top of the draft. Liljegren is clearly a dynamic offensive talent that can play on the right-side, and Vilardi is a very smart all around player (weak skater) but is looking like a top talent. Tolvannen has had a good start to the year between USHL and WJC summer camp.

 

[Daximus]

I think the Q is actually the biggest step up. The physicality and defending isn't at the level of the WHL and OHL, only reason the gap wasn't massive for MacKinnon is that he probably entered the league and immediately became the best skater in it (or atleast top 5, similar to McDavid this year, but McDavid's IQ is on a whole other level). Its more realistic to look at the path of Drouin or Huberdeau.

The OHL probably has the most guys who can immediately make the jump, but I also think they have by-far the largest pool of talent, so top guys coming out of there are top guys. Not trying to say Ontario has the best players, but I think the OHL unlike the WHL and especially the Q, has had great success of pulling in USNDP guys and Americans in general, making a deeper league. The States the OHL draws from tend to be more willing to play in the CHL, while also being high-quality talent wise (NY, Michigan, Wisc, Pennsylvania and Missouri). Whereas for you guys pulling top kids out of Minnesota (as New England is for the Q) is near impossible and even some of your own best talent goes NCAA (Toews, Fabbro, Schwartz, Kariya, etc).

Weirdly, the WHL just hasn't had that elite #1 guy recently, RNH did well in his transition but has had his development stutter. Also, it seems the best products out the WHL in recent years tend to be D, who will always take longer (Jones, Murray, Rielly). Drai and Reinhart both looked pretty good this year in their D+2.

Either way, I'm excited to follow Patrick this year. I know by the time the draft comes around people won't be talking about him being a bad 1st overall, I just hope its for the reason he proved his doubters wrong, and not general draft hype. My guess is he enters the draft in the same tier as Hall and Seguin and slightly behind the Eichel, Stamkos, Matthews, and Tavares, and maybe on level with Mackinnon. I'm also not heavily weighting the memorial cup, it is just one of the better viewings (video quality wise) I've had, as I hate streaming games on a comp, so I mostly watch the QMJHL and OHL games I regularly get on my cable package (luckily, it seems I'm going to get a lot of Veleno games this year). So, I'm clearly hoping he gets on the WJC team, and Sportsnet picks up a couple of his Friday night games.

I feel a smart coach will break him in on a sheltered 3rd line that is used offensively, the game is changing to a top 9 with a grinder on each line than a classic Top 6, checking line and energy line.

I think guys from the Q can translate their offensive games easier. WHL guys translate their defensive games quicker. It's in the contrast of systems in both leagues I think.
Yeah most of our best guys tend to be defencemen recently. It's rare we have a player of Patrick's calibre as a center. It hasn't happened in a long time, probably since Modano. It doesn't help that we never had Benn, Toews, Turris or Jost who all could have generated some hype and probably played very well had they all played in the WHL right after Bantam onward. In Benn's case he only came to Kelowna after being drafted.

 

[LordNeverLose]

Patrick is just as good a prospect as Matthews was at this stage.

Only thing that puts Matthews above for me now is WCoH

 

[Daximus]

Patrick is just as good a prospect as Matthews was at this stage.

Only thing that puts Matthews above for me now is WCoH

Matthews skating is noticeably better. I think Patrick is stronger and plays a tougher game though. Kids a brick **** house. He doesn't take anything from anyone either. Two very different types of players. But both very good.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Matthews skating is noticeably better. I think Patrick is stronger and plays a tougher game though. Kids a brick **** house. He doesn't take anything from anyone either. Two very different types of players. But both very good.

It's an interesting conversation had Patrick been a week earlier (4 days actually) where he would have gone last draft. He would have been 2 days shy of a full year younger than Matthews. This is a significant amount of time for allowed development and player improvement.

If Patrick improves or picks up on his last 2 months of play last season.

February 13GP 26P
March 9GP 20P

There is no telling how good he is or can be. This is why I am interested in seeing him play this year. I would have even liked to have seen him play in a men's league like Liiga or NLA as Laine and Matthews did last season being he is such a late Birthday.

 

[93LEAFS]

There is no telling how good he is or can be. This is why I am interested in seeing him play this year. I would have even liked to have seen him play in a men's league like Liiga or NLA as Laine and Matthews did last season being he is such a late Birthday.

Not possible, the CHL would never let him leave without a lawsuit. They own his transfer/registration card for the next 2 years unless he is going to the NHL. I don't think this path has hurt Doughty, Tavares, Lemieux, P. Kane, and so on.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Not possible, the CHL would never let him leave without a lawsuit. They own his transfer/registration card for the next 2 years unless he is going to the NHL. I don't think this path has hurt Doughty, Tavares, Lemieux, P. Kane, and so on.

I wasn't referring to what the rules were, I was stating given Patrick's late Birthday, given with how he played in his last 2 months and the playoffs minus Brandon's disappointing Memorial Cup. He may benefit in terms of accelerating his development playing against men this year. It was an observation, given Matthews path and development from playing in NLA last year. It doesn't look like it hurt him. As I am sure it would not hurt Patrick.

 

[Keep Sorokin Me Babe]

one of these is Pierre-Luc Dubois,
the other is Nolan Patrick (with a much better supporting cast in Brandon)

 

[Daximus]

one of these is Pierre-Luc Dubois,
the other is Nolan Patrick (with a much better supporting cast in Brandon)

I think that graphic is a bit misleading as not all of Dubois' time with the Eagles was played at Center. He spent a significant amount of time on the Wing.
It's going to be interesting to see them play together again at the WJC's. Though Dubois did score more than Patrick this year the only time I've seen them play together (at the Hlinka) Patrick looked to be the more complete and superior player. Their play styles are very similar though IMO. I think they are both very good players.

 

[Keep Sorokin Me Babe]

I think that graphic is a bit misleading as not all of Dubois' time with the Eagles was played at Center. He spent a significant amount of time on the Wing.
It's going to be interesting to see them play together again at the WJC's. Though Dubois did score more than Patrick this year the only time I've seen them play together (at the Hlinka) Patrick looked to be the more complete and superior player. Their play styles are very similar though IMO. I think they are both very good players.

I mean, Dubois' production actually increased once he moved to Center halfway through the season so that doesn't work in Patrick's favour. I just think it's interesting how everyone laughed at Columbus for choosing need over "BPA" when he's in fact comparable with the presumed 1OA this year.

 

[Daximus]

Daximus

I mean, Dubois' production actually increased once he moved to Center halfway through the season so that doesn't work in Patrick's favour. I just think it's interesting how everyone laughed at Columbus for choosing need over "BPA" when he's in fact comparable with the presumed 1OA this year.

Some people laughed. I didn't, Dubois is good and if he's in this draft he likely challenges Patrick for 1st overall. And Patrick likely challenges Columbus to take him rather than Dubois in last years draft. But ultimately at this moment I think Patrick is the better player.

 

[landy92mack29]

I mean, Dubois' production actually increased once he moved to Center halfway through the season so that doesn't work in Patrick's favour. I just think it's interesting how everyone laughed at Columbus for choosing need over "BPA" when he's in fact comparable with the presumed 1OA this year.

The people who laughed are idiots who have never watch Dubois play. Dubois is a Mackinnon level prospect and would be a good bet to be the 1st pick most years given his complete game, playing style and work ethic.

For Patrick vs Dubois I think they are basically even prospects and are actually only separated by just under 3 months. Patrick is the better bet to stick at center than Dubois will Dubois being a bit more dynamic and physical.

Patrick did play on a more stacked team but that meant he didn't get the same amount of ice time as Dubois. If CB needed a goal Dubois, Svechnikov and Lazarev/Joly were on the ice. The WHL is a tougher league to score in but both play a very pro style game that should have no problems translating. If Patrick was in last years draft I think he'd have gone 3rd over Dubois just because he's a lock to be a center(Assuming Winnipeg didn't take him).

 

[Kamiccolo]

The people who laughed are idiots who have never watch Dubois play. Dubois is a Mackinnon level prospect and would be a good bet to be the 1st pick most years given his complete game, playing style and work ethic.

For Patrick vs Dubois I think they are basically even prospects and are actually only separated by just under 3 months. Patrick is the better bet to stick at center than Dubois will Dubois being a bit more dynamic and physical.

Patrick did play on a more stacked team but that meant he didn't get the same amount of ice time as Dubois. If CB needed a goal Dubois, Svechnikov and Lazarev/Joly were on the ice. The WHL is a tougher league to score in but both play a very pro style game that should have no problems translating. If Patrick was in last years draft I think he'd have gone 3rd over Dubois just because he's a lock to be a center(Assuming Winnipeg didn't take him).

I can't honestly think of a year Dubois goes 1st OA.

Patrik reminds me of a RNH tier center. Not a bad player, but not the quality you come to expect. IMO, a lot of teams are going to draft for book or bust in the high end of the round as the ceilings of the "safer" picks isn't as high as usual.

 

[Plastic Joseph]

The people who laughed are idiots who have never watch Dubois play. Dubois is a Mackinnon level prospect and would be a good bet to be the 1st pick most years given his complete game, playing style and work ethic.

For Patrick vs Dubois I think they are basically even prospects and are actually only separated by just under 3 months. Patrick is the better bet to stick at center than Dubois will Dubois being a bit more dynamic and physical.

Patrick did play on a more stacked team but that meant he didn't get the same amount of ice time as Dubois. If CB needed a goal Dubois, Svechnikov and Lazarev/Joly were on the ice. The WHL is a tougher league to score in but both play a very pro style game that should have no problems translating. If Patrick was in last years draft I think he'd have gone 3rd over Dubois just because he's a lock to be a center(Assuming Winnipeg didn't take him).

He's very, very good, but the bold just isn't true.

 

[a587b]

Bob McKenzie wrote that there was a fairly strong consensus among his scouting sources that Patrick wouldn't have cracked the top 4 in this year's draft, that he'd have been selected somewhere between #5-#10.

Well rounded player and considered to be a very safe and reliable choice but from what I've read his upside according to most pro scouts is more of a high-end 2C than a 1C. We'll see. Right now he's #1 because nobody else has stepped up but maybe some guy with more upside talent will turn it on and pass him. I remember when Mike Ricci was #1 going into his draft year with a somewhat similar profile to Patrick's and he ended up as the #4 pick. At this point, the top end of 2017 is considered weak so Patrick will probably go higher than Ricci did.