McKenzie also didn't include Dubois as a top 4 prospect in last years draft. So saying Patrick wouldn't pass Dubois was a weird statement, when the scouts he polled had Tkachuk ahead.
C Nolan Patrick - Brandon Wheat Kings, WHL (2017 Draft)
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He was discussing after the fact. The exact quote: "The consensus amongst scouts surveyed by TSN is that Patrick wouldn't have displaced any of the top four picks in last year's draft. Depending on the scout, they retroactively rank Patrick anywhere between No. 5 and No. 10, based on his 2015-16 season."
one of these is Pierre-Luc Dubois,
the other is Nolan Patrick (with a much better supporting cast in Brandon)
Note to self, watermark my pictures in tweets from now on.
if he's using the same scouts, how could Patrick be clearly behind Dubois, but not clearly ahead of Tkachuk. Its a questionable statement, given the history of his rankings. I think part of it is, he wanted to avoid directly calling out Dubois going 3rd over Puljujarvi.
That's possible. His group had Tkachuk #4 and Dubois #5, so probably most think that Patrick would've been #6 at best.
Point is, Patrick is seen as very rounded/reliable/safe but not considered likely to have elite offensive upside. Given that all 10 of McKenzie's scouting sources rated him as #1, it's safe to say that there is doubt about the quality of the 2017 draft class.
Daximus
I remember there being a lot of doubt about the 2016 class early on as well. 2014 class too.
I seriously question any NHL scout to tell me why Tkachuk is better than Patrick. Dubois is closer but I still think Patrick can do some things better. Kid gets seriously underrated by scouts for some reason. Last year he had hype all of the sudden its dissappeared.
I remember there being a lot of doubt about the 2016 class early on as well. 2014 class too.
I seriously question any NHL scout to tell me why Tkachuk is better than Patrick. Dubois is closer but I still think Patrick can do some things better. Kid gets seriously underrated by scouts for some reason. Last year he had hype all of the sudden its dissappeared.
There wasn't any doubt about Matthews. And Puljujarvi was considered quite strong, too.
Everybody has their opinions. I'm just reporting what the scouts who get paid to make the evaluations have said to this point in time.
Alot of the perception of that draft was changed by the imports (Juolevi, Sergachev, and Nylander). Laine rising from the 4-10 range to a strong number 2 also helped.
landy92mack29
Registered User
It seems like Bob just uses OHL scouts who don't see much of the W/Q guys. If you've seen enough of Dubois and Tkachuk there is no way you'd put Tkachuk ahead. Patrick had a weak Mem cup due to injury and the entire team playing bad so that's basically all the OHL scouts saw of him.
Daximus
Yeah that's why I think the bias in his rankings towards the WHL isn't intentional. They basically only watch Hlinka, WJCs and Mem Cup so if a guy doesn't perform well there they think hes a bust.
Yeah that's why I think the bias in his rankings towards the WHL isn't intentional. They basically only watch Hlinka, WJCs and Mem Cup so if a guy doesn't perform well there they think hes a bust.
A bunch of OHL scouts also cover the Q, and can cross reference (similarly a lot of Scouts are based out of Ann Arbour so they can cover USHL, USNDP, NCAA and OHL). Many NHL scouts are based out of Ottawa because of the ability to cover both leagues. The WHL requires its own staff.
TMLife*
Auston Matthews
Seems inconceivable to me that any WHL scouts watching Patrick don't think he's the best prospect we've had since Modano. Unless every single one of them was hired in the last few years and knows nothing of the WHL or it's history. Of course I haven't been able to watch Dubois in person but I did watch the two of them at the Hlinka and Patrick was the best player on the team IMO. So to say he's definitely worse than Dubois when the only time the two of them played together Patrick was easily the better player either seems to me that BMacks scouts aren't doing their jobs correctly or they have some sort of bias against Patrick for some reason or another. He's no Connor McDavid but his ceiling is hardly that of a good 2nd line Center. When he driving play one every single teams he's on more than anyone else on the team that tells me he's very likely to be a 1st line center. It's not like the kids been a passenger every where he goes.
Pretty hard to top the hype of J-Bo, and I don't think he's clearly above Seth Jones.
Sorry I should say forward. J-Bo's hype was pretty massive, like Generational massive. Jones hype was good but like all defencemen he fell. Plus he was an american USNT defect so it wasn't quite the same. Also we had Price who is arguably one of the best prospects we've had in the last 40 years regardless of where he was drafted. But top 5 for a goalie is still solid.
Yeah, J-bo hype was a bit like Tavares, was massive early on then slowed down a bit as the draft got closer. Pretty sure he holds the record as the youngest person to play for Team Canada at the WJC, which is absolutely insane for a defender (and being the only defender to play at 16).
And it's not like he hasn't been good he just isn't the defender people thought he would be. He became a solid shutdown D in his prime in Calgary. He just played for some bad teams.
Patrick Marleau went #2 in 1997 behind Hall of Fame lock Joe Thornton who was definitely considered to be an above-average #1 selection leading up to the draft. The next three picks after Marleau were Olli Jokinen (1,200 games, 750 points), Roberto Luongo (Hall of Fame?) and Eric Brewer (1,000 games). Rather spiffy top five that year. Plus Marleau was as young as a guy can be for his draft year (born Sept 15, right on the deadline date) whereas Nolan Patrick has a Sept 19 birthday and thus will be a full year older when he gets drafted.
Marleau didn't have an insane amount of hype. The player who actually had the most hype til a sub-par draft year was Dan Cleary.
Marleau got taken #2 while Cleary went #13 when all was said and done, and Marleau has lived up to his lofty selection.
Marleau's hype that year was actually pretty minimal. And like Patrick he was considered a weak player. Not only that he was considered a weak skater and people thought only his toughness would translate to the NHL. Which probably further enforces the point of WHL guys being seen as weak prospects in comparison to literally everyone else. Marleau never went on to be a regular award winner but he has built a nice career for himself as a sure fire first liner for the bulk of his prime. Much like I think Patrick will. In fact with seeing both of them play I can say that I believe Patrick is the better player. No one has been able to take over games like this kid in this league in a very long time.
Marleau wasn't considered to be a weak prospect. He just wasn't a rival to Thornton for #1 which was no dishonour as Thornton was quite highly regarded-- and deservedly so, as things turned out. The top five were solid that year.
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