C Nolan Patrick - Brandon Wheat Kings, WHL (2017 Draft)

[MMC]

Out of that list it would be the Leafs as the Oilers have McDavid-Draisaitl-RNH and the Sabres have Eichel-ROR-Reinhart. Matthews-Patrick-Kadri wouldn't be too bad going forward...

Call me optimistic, but I would be kind of surprised if any of those teams (especially Buffalo and Edmonton) finish last next year.

I wasn't talking about that list

 

[MMC]

Canucks?

I'm not sure how good of a fit he would be on that team

 

[JA]

I've watched a few of the nationally-televised Wheat Kings games this month and haven't been that impressed with Patrick in the few games I've seen.

He missed the 2016 NHL Draft cutoff date by four days -- the cutoff date is September 15, 1998; Patrick was born on September 19, 1998. If he were to be drafted in the 2016 NHL Draft, I think he would be firmly ranked below the top three players.

Some of these comments were made in December:

Before the season started, I would've said they're so far apart, it's a joke. Dubois has been fantastic and the gap would be a lot smaller if they're up on the draft board.

I'll echo DekeLikeYouMeanIt and say that it's way closer than a straight numbers poll will tell you.

Patrick had a bit of a gap (although not to the extent that most people will suggest) heading into the season. That gap's all but closed now because Patrick has been just decent, while Dubois has consistently been outstanding. They're nearly the same age too.

Patrick probably has a slightly higher upside in terms of pure value, because he's a tad better in most skill categories; skating, passing and playmaking, and shooting. But Dubois has shown an uncanny ability to dictate play, to an extent not yet shown by Patrick.

It doesn't help that Patrick's Brandon Wheat Kings have been consistently inconsistent since a terrific start to the season. His numbers rightly should be better than what they are. But on a team as skilled as Brandon, he arguably deserves some blame for the lack of offense because he gets prime minutes as much as anyone and yet the team is underachieving relative to talent. Dubois on the other hand has been only on the up ever since January 2015.

Honestly, if Patrick were available this draft, I still might be inclined to put Dubois higher on my list. I think he's a tremendously smart player and will be a top 10 pick in June barring a disaster, and if he isn't then some team is going to be extremely lucky.

Patrick is very much a complete player at this moment in time though. I'm reminded of Sean Couturier in the way he's just "ready" to play minutes at the NHL level. Like Couturier he's also the frontrunner for 1st overall a year before his draft. We'll see whether he can continue that forward development a la Sam Reinhart or if he just kinda continues to be great like Sean.

I don't know if either are true 1st line players, but they'll be NHLers in some capacity, I guarantee it. A case of two players who just "get" it, at both ends of the ice.

I've never seen Patrick play at all but I can comment on Dubois, he is an extremely intelligent player, from the 1st game he stepped on the ice as a 16 year old in the Q he was ready for top line minutes and looked like a 20 year old overage player out there, which is just very rare for any 16 year old.

Hes generally the smartest player on the ice, plays a 200 foot game, defensively above average, and this year his offensive game has really taken off (not that it was bad last year, around ~.80 PPG as a young 16 year old), he plays on a line with Svechnikov (1st rd DET) and Lazarev (Undrafted 19 year old) and its very common for Dubois to be the best player on that line in any given night as a 17 year old.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him make the NHL as early as next year, he's just the type of player who is always an age group above the average, and HockeyCanada for sure likes the leadership he brought to the Hlinka Squad this year.

Pierre-Luc Dubois had an excellent second half of the 2015-16 season, so I'm not sure that the gap has widened between Dubois and Patrick since then. If anything, it might have narrowed further.

I have a sense that Patrick is in the same tier as Tkachuk and Dubois. I think there will be other challengers for the first overall selection next season.

 

[Joel Ward]

I wasn't talking about that list

Whoops my bad, misread it.

 

[JA]

Brandon is playing against Red Deer right now on Sportsnet 360.

 

[sbtatter]

Selfishly, i hope Patrick falls out of first OA talk and bdn get him for two more seasons

 

[93LEAFS]

Who do you think needs Nolan the most? Leafs have Matthews, Oilers have McDavid, Sabres have Eichel.

Who knows, the league's strange. But out of teams that didn't make the playoffs I would say Blue Jackets, Canucks, New Jersey, and Ottawa have the biggest long-term need for him and out of teams that could take a step back he fits a massive long term need for the Red Wings. But for some others who have good #1c prospects. Out of the current non-playoff teams, it seems RHD may be the bigger need, I know if Toronto is a basement dweller again, Liljegren is most likely the ideal pick.

 

[93LEAFS]

Selfishly, i hope Patrick falls out of first OA talk and bdn get him for two more seasons

Possible, I think he'll still be viewed as better barring a bad year (which again its probably better to get him producing as a #1 pick, than to slip like Monahan did for a terrible 67's), but it wouldn't take much slippage for him to be put in the Reinhart/Drai tier of prospects who both returned.

 

[A1LeafNation]

1 point and -2 in the tournament.

 

[Magua]

If he played as well as he did tonight in the first two games (well, the RN really), they might have played another game. He had a solid game tonight and was involved all over the ice. Speed of London and RN probably did him no favors either.

 

[1Gold Standard]

Can't say that I'm surprised or disappointed at his Mem. Cup performance. I don't rate this player as high as others. Not going 1OA next year will be the best thing for him, as it will take the pressure off of immediately making the jump to the NHL as #1OAs tend to do...another 2 years in junior would be perfect for him...spending some time in the AHL after that would be an added bonus.

 

[tacogeoff]

Another 2 years in junior? He doesn't have much left to accomplish there. As a 17yr old he went 102 points in 72 games and 30pts in 21 games in the playoffs. Has won the WHL championship and was named the best player of the playoffs.

3 bad games in a tournament do not ruin what he has accomplished throughout the year.

i dont see him spending two years in junior and then a year in the AHL which ever team drafts him will be inserting him into their lineup asap.

Brandon will not be a good team next season so it will be interesting to see him play some international hockey as with all the players leaving i cant see them icing a well rounded playoff worthy team m

Jmo

 

[93LEAFS]

Another 2 years in junior? He doesn't have much left to accomplish there. As a 17yr old he went 102 points in 72 games and 30pts in 21 games in the playoffs. Has won the WHL championship and was named the best player of the playoffs.

3 bad games in a tournament do not ruin what he has accomplished throughout the year.

i dont see him spending two years in junior and then a year in the AHL which ever team drafts him will be inserting him into their lineup asap.

Brandon will not be a good team next season so it will be interesting to see him play some international hockey as with all the players leaving i cant see them icing a well rounded playoff worthy team m

Jmo

If he slips next year a bit I can see him getting the 4th full OHL year. Sam Reinhart was in a very similar position as a late birthday returning after a big year, and didn't wow quite as much as expected. Due to this he got the 4th year. I wouldn't bet on Patrick doing it, but I can see a situation where it happens. His teams is losing alot of talents that will make this years numbers hard to replicate. Not really seeing anyone in 2017 though to really steal his luster, atleast out of NA based prospects.

 

[ps241]

Who knows, the league's strange. But out of teams that didn't make the playoffs I would say Blue Jackets, Canucks, New Jersey, and Ottawa have the biggest long-term need for him and out of teams that could take a step back he fits a massive long term need for the Red Wings. But for some others who have good #1c prospects. Out of the current non-playoff teams, it seems RHD may be the bigger need, I know if Toronto is a basement dweller again, Liljegren is most likely the ideal pick.

Saw him play spot duty on team Sweden live in Winnipeg this spring and he flashed some incredible skills. I will need to see a much larger sample size but my first reaction was the he is going to be special.

 

[tacogeoff]

If he slips next year a bit I can see him getting the 4th full OHL year. Sam Reinhart was in a very similar position as a late birthday returning after a big year, and didn't wow quite as much as expected. Due to this he got the 4th year. I wouldn't bet on Patrick doing it, but I can see a situation where it happens. His teams is losing alot of talents that will make this years numbers hard to replicate. Not really seeing anyone in 2017 though to really steal his luster, atleast out of NA based prospects.

It will be interesting. He will bump to the first line and play against tougher competition but with all the vets leaving he will certainly receive a lot more ice time. He could slump a bit in production. With his size and skill set it would be tough to see a team that drafts him in the top 5 having a good enough roster to leave him off if he has a good training camp.
I need a coffee, that was an endless ramble

 

[93LEAFS]

It will be interesting. He will bump to the first line and play against tougher competition but with all the vets leaving he will certainly receive a lot more ice time. He could slump a bit in production. With his size and skill set it would be tough to see a team that drafts him in the top 5 having a good enough roster to leave him off if he has a good training camp.
I need a coffee, that was an endless ramble

Possibly, teams seem to be reluctant to bring guys up, granted I donno if any team will go full tank like Buffalo or even Toronto this year. But the fact Reinhart, Draisaitl, Strome, Marner, and Drouin have been sent back in recent years for varying reasons (I'd add Bennett but unique situation) makes me think teams are now less likely to give a youngster a spot. Think they view the ELC's (cheap talent) and more proven as the way to go. I think top 2 and a good camp and he's a lock, but who knows with how the lottery goes. I mean Winnipeg got him this year they could easily send him back, whereas Toronto he's probably up.

 

[UsernameWasTaken]

If he slips next year a bit I can see him getting the 4th full OHL year. Sam Reinhart was in a very similar position as a late birthday returning after a big year, and didn't wow quite as much as expected. Due to this he got the 4th year. I wouldn't bet on Patrick doing it, but I can see a situation where it happens. His teams is losing alot of talents that will make this years numbers hard to replicate. Not really seeing anyone in 2017 though to really steal his luster, atleast out of NA based prospects.

Reinhart was physically weaker and not as good a skater as Patrick is, though.

 

[93LEAFS]

Reinhart was physically weaker and not as good a skater as Patrick is, though.

As said, I wouldn't bet on it, but I can see circumstances arising which would lead to a 4th year. He is a better skater and bigger, but with the new lotto, who knows who is picking high. But if he goes 1OA I'll be shocked to see him sent back, that just doesn't happen to forwards drafted 1OA, I can't think of the last one (Lindros is my best guess, and Ovi but those were unique situations).

 

[ps241]

As said, I wouldn't bet on it, but I can see circumstances arising which would lead to a 4th year. He is a better skater and bigger, but with the new lotto, who knows who is picking high. But if he goes 1OA I'll be shocked to see him sent back, that just doesn't happen to forwards drafted 1OA, I can't think of the last one (Lindros is my best guess, and Ovi but those were unique situations).

Modano as well but I am dating myself. Mike was a late bloomer physically (think RNH) and I think think the NorthStars wanted to be safe and let his body develop. I watched Modano live about 8 times in his draft + 1 season in the dub and he was incredible.

 

[93LEAFS]

Modano as well but I am dating myself. Mike was a late bloomer physically (think RNH) and I think think the NorthStars wanted to be safe and let his body develop. I watched Modano live about 8 times in his draft + 1 season in the dub and he was incredible.

Yeah, him and Sundin are the last ones to my knowledge. I know multiple defenders stayed down (Berard, Jovo) and Goalies (Fluery), just think we haven't seen a forward held back in almost 28 years.

 

[ps241]

Yeah, him and Sundin are the last ones to my knowledge. I know multiple defenders stayed down (Berard, Jovo) and Goalies (Fluery), just think we haven't seen a forward held back in almost 28 years.

It was the right call on Modano he just needed that year to physically mature a bit. What made it tough was Linden (#2 pick) went strait to Vancouver and had a big rookie season so imagine that happening this year? let's just say it intensified the debate that Linden should have gone #1 for the pro Linden group and made for a long season for us in the pro Modano group at the time. Thankfully there was know HFBoards back then.

 

[HarrisonFord]

Would he go #3 this year? or #4?

 

[bert]

I've watched a lot of Patrick, but I have never seen him control the game offensively (even as an underager). I still think he's going to be a great player, but I just don't buy the hype of him being equal or better in terms of offensive potential to a player like Matthews. I think what we're going to get with him is a 6'4" version of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins IMO (which isn't a negative comment by the way).

A heavy 6'4 RNH is as good or a better prospect than Matthews...

 

[Gabe Kupari]

I think there would be a very real greater than 75 percent chance that he goes number 2 to his hometown winnipeg Jets if he was draft eligible this year. Don't think the Jets could pass up on the 6'4 200 plus pound homegrown center.

 

[Daximus]

I think there would be a very real greater than 75 percent chance that he goes number 2 to his hometown winnipeg Jets if he was draft eligible this year. Don't think the Jets could pass up on the 6'4 200 plus pound homegrown center.

Yeah basically a guarantee that the Jets snag him at #2. We need an elite center more than an elite winger. We need both but the center is more valuable. So the answer is Patrick would go 2nd overall no questions asked.