Prospect Info: C Noah Ostlund, 16th Overall, 2022 NHL Draft, Assigned to Rochester 4.17.24

[Bendium]

It's humorous someone would read that entire write up and pull out two sentences and then say we should trade them.

Gosh I love this board. Do you have your own opinion? or do you only know how to attack posters.

Does Ostlund have good attributes and skills? Absolutely, but I don't think it will overcome his deficiencies, which are also current Sabres deficiencies that need to be addressed. So, I highlighted the part that supports my argument.

Why don't you try putting some effort into making your own argument, stating why you think he DOES fit the Sabres future and why you think we should keep him?

 

[truthbluth]

I would trade Ostlund as THE primary piece in a package for extended Meier, and that is about it wrt reportedly available players. Same for Quinn, Peterka, Kulich and Savoie. Power, Levi not available, period. All other prospects are available for Chychrun.

 

[Bendium]

It wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility that he stacks 20 lbs of muscle or more on that frame without losing any part of his quickness.

AT 5'11" 165-170 lbs, he certainly could put on 20 lbs over the next couple years. That would still make him an undersized center in the NHL, especially in the bottom 6 where we have future open space. Thats why even with development time, I don't see where he fits the Sabres needs in the future. We have an unbalanced prospect pool and so Ostland is high on my list that I would move to rebalance. Even if all you did was trade him for an equivelent defensive prospect I would be happy with that.

 

[Chainshot]

I think other teams have prospects they absolutely target and prioritize in talks and it is not just any former 1st that they will take in a deal.

The challenge is what teams really liked Ostlund heading into the draft and would want him in a deal? That is the huge unknown with not just Ostlund, but guys like Rosen, Savoie, Kulich, and everyone else that might get dangled in a deal.


One thing I like about Ostlund is that he might be the best C prospect that they have. And just because they have Thompson and Cozens locked up, they still need center depth behind them.

And you could see Ostlund turn into a better NHL center than Krebs within the next 4-5 years.

Beyond just who targeted a player at the draft, who do these teams evaluate as the more valuable piece to their team now and in the future. Yes, it's likely a team that was holding someone in high regard at the draft is going to have him even higher, but if a team had questions that he's answering with his Allsvenskan play this year, it probably puts him more into possible conversations.

I haven't seen anything in the DIF games this year I've seen him in to think he's shy of the inside. Up through the jaw injury, he was on crease at times, mining for deflections and rebounds. I only caught a little of his first game in the fishbowl and the situation didn't present itself. There was some comment about it in scouting reports last year but that doesn't match up as much with what we see in club level nor in peer-to-peer matchups right now.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Gosh I love this board. Do you have your own opinion? or do you only know how to attack posters.

Does Ostlund have good attributes and skills? Absolutely, but I don't think it will overcome his deficiencies, which are also current Sabres deficiencies that need to be addressed. So, I highlighted the part that supports my argument.

Why don't you try putting some effort into making your own argument, stating why you think he DOES fit the Sabres future and why you think we should keep him?

I think the issue is more that you simply seem to assume he will be unable to add strength over the next couple of years or atleast that's the impression I'm left with, when there are numerous players who have done so in the years following their being drafted, in fact most do add 5, 10 or even 15 pounds.

A number of young guys who would be considered undersized by your metric are succeeding in the NHL. Kids like Jarvis, Perfetti, Caufield, The Hughes brothers, Sandin, Keller, Raymond, Etc. Even guys like Beniers and Johnson, while over 6' would be considered pretty lanky right now. I wouldn't write him off simply because he needs to gain a few pounds of muscle, most of these kids need to do that when they are drafted.

He has a ton of skill, but also has something that is extremely hard to teach. His hockey IQ is extremely high, and that's not generally something you see significant improvement from with players. I think he will find ways to overcome his size because of that alone, but I also think he'll add extra muscle as he gets older and get more time for off-season training.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

AT 5'11" 165-170 lbs, he certainly could put on 20 lbs over the next couple years. That would still make him an undersized center in the NHL, especially in the bottom 6 where we have future open space. Thats why even with development time, I don't see where he fits the Sabres needs in the future. We have an unbalanced prospect pool and so Ostland is high on my list that I would move to rebalance. Even if all you did was trade him for an equivelent defensive prospect I would be happy with that.

Per your analysis are there teams with needs for undersized bottom 6 forwards? From your characterization it doesn’t sound like a player with any trade value.

Personally I think a 5’11” 190 center is just around league average. If he’s “big” enough would be more a function of how he plays. That’s a heavier and basically same height Krebs. It wouldn’t surprise me if he made an equivalent NHL impact.

 

[Chainshot]

We've also seen that the Granato-Adams tandem seem to be leaning into having three scoring capable lines for now. Cozens looks more like who they are grooming for a matchup role but he is held back by the wingers he has but having another center with good transition and coverage skills into the middle 6 to make that more interchangeable is certainly interesting.

Ostlund looks like he has the defensive chops and play connecting ability to fit into that sort of role if he continues to mature. It'll be interesting to see how the team leans between him and Savoie as that possible center or if both wind up on the wing. Or neither.

 

[Dingo44]

Gosh I love this board. Do you have your own opinion? or do you only know how to attack posters.

Does Ostlund have good attributes and skills? Absolutely, but I don't think it will overcome his deficiencies, which are also current Sabres deficiencies that need to be addressed. So, I highlighted the part that supports my argument.

Why don't you try putting some effort into making your own argument, stating why you think he DOES fit the Sabres future and why you think we should keep him?

It's confirmation bias and your opinion of what the Sabres should be building instead of what they are building. You stated before you didn't think he was big enough and in a big glowing write up you pull out the two sentences that back up your one opinion.

Östlund fits what the Sabres are trying to build because they value hockey IQ, work ethic, skill, and positional flexibility. He's a possession monster, good in the short area game, and he already brings excellent face off ability - something the Sabres need in their system.

There is no need to rush this guy into the lineup. He's signed for another year in Djurgarden, and then he can come over to the AHL. He's going to continue to grow in size and strength. It's crazy to write off 18 year olds in their D+1 season especially when by all accounts they are playing well and continuing to do what got them drafted in the first place.

 

[Ace]

I feel like the concern would be more substantial if he wasn’t, at the smallest and least experienced he’s ever going to be moving forward, he wasn’t breaking out against fully grown men at 18

 

[Bendium]

We've also seen that the Granato-Adams tandem seem to be leaning into having three scoring capable lines for now. Cozens looks more like who they are grooming for a matchup role but he is held back by the wingers he has but having another center with good transition and coverage skills into the middle 6 to make that more interchangeable is certainly interesting.

Ostlund looks like he has the defensive chops and play connecting ability to fit into that sort of role if he continues to mature. It'll be interesting to see how the team leans between him and Savoie as that possible center or if both wind up on the wing. Or neither.

I take no issue with your post, and if they want to role 3 scoring lines and a defensive possession line I am ok with that, but here is my problem. When? For example, Ostlund is year one in the SHL (18 yrs), likely one more year in the SHL (19), then at least 1 year in the AHL(20), and I will argue likely 2 in the AHL building strength and size (21), then NHL rookie bottom six minutes (22), 2 more years to become a consistent reliable NHL player (24, 25). So it is likely 6 years from now before he is ready to hold down a third scoring line spot on a playoff team, if he gets there at all. How does that help the Sabres in the mean time?

Waiting on a guy like Ostlund to fill that kind of role seems like a recipe for the team to continue to falter. If we had less holes in the lineup and they were more active in using UFA and plater for player hockey trades to build the NHL club, then you could wait on Ostlund all you want, but I just don't see him helping the NHL team win any time soon if ever, except as a trade asset.

Thats my opinion.

 

[Gabrielor]

Love the progress D+1, and the post-WJC play.

It's bizarre to me though when people think he's more of a shoe-in to 3C than Krebs.

 

[Dingo44]

So it is likely 6 years from now before he is ready to hold down a third scoring line spot on a playoff team, if he gets there at all. How does that help the Sabres in the mean time?

Waiting on a guy like Ostlund to fill that kind of role seems like a recipe for the team to continue to falter. If we had less holes in the lineup and they were more active in using UFA and plater for player hockey trades to build the NHL club, then you could wait on Ostlund all you want, but I just don't see him helping the NHL team win any time soon if ever, except as a trade asset.

Thats my opinion.

This isn't the NFL. You don't draft for immediate help. This is how building a pipeline works - you draft and then develop. Most players can take years to help a team - that's why you have farm systems. This isn't anything new.

Ostlund isn't even signed to an NHL contract yet - what about keeping his rights and letting him develop for the future "seems like a recipe for the team to continue to falter"? Have you heard that the Sabres are going to keep a roster spot open and count on this one player to get us over the top? Should we be jettisoning any prospects that aren't "helping the NHL team win any time soon, if ever, except as a trade asset?"

Honestly, it's the strangest take.

 

[Zman5778]

I take no issue with your post, and if they want to role 3 scoring lines and a defensive possession line I am ok with that, but here is my problem. When? For example, Ostlund is year one in the SHL (18 yrs), likely one more year in the SHL (19), then at least 1 year in the AHL(20), and I will argue likely 2 in the AHL building strength and size (21), then NHL rookie bottom six minutes (22), 2 more years to become a consistent reliable NHL player (24, 25). So it is likely 6 years from now before he is ready to hold down a third scoring line spot on a playoff team, if he gets there at all. How does that help the Sabres in the mean time?

Waiting on a guy like Ostlund to fill that kind of role seems like a recipe for the team to continue to falter. If we had less holes in the lineup and they were more active in using UFA and plater for player hockey trades to build the NHL club, then you could wait on Ostlund all you want, but I just don't see him helping the NHL team win any time soon if ever, except as a trade asset.

Thats my opinion.

Who says we wait on Ostlund? We can let him develop and then sign a 3C in the interim or use other assets to trade for one. Or Krebs just takes on the 3C role.

If the right trade comes around, I've got no issues using him as an asset......but he's not a guy I'm in a hurry to use as an asset.

 

[Zman5778]

Love the progress D+1, and the post-WJC play.

It's bizarre to me though when people think he's more of a shoe-in to 3C than Krebs.

I do wonder if one kind of leads to the other. It's gonna be 3-4-5 years until Ostlund is ready.....so maybe we use Krebs in the role until he prices his way out of town, then turn to Ostlund?

 

[Chainshot]

I take no issue with your post, and if they want to role 3 scoring lines and a defensive possession line I am ok with that, but here is my problem. When? For example, Ostlund is year one in the SHL (18 yrs), likely one more year in the SHL (19), then at least 1 year in the AHL(20), and I will argue likely 2 in the AHL building strength and size (21), then NHL rookie bottom six minutes (22), 2 more years to become a consistent reliable NHL player (24, 25). So it is likely 6 years from now before he is ready to hold down a third scoring line spot on a playoff team, if he gets there at all. How does that help the Sabres in the mean time?

Waiting on a guy like Ostlund to fill that kind of role seems like a recipe for the team to continue to falter. If we had less holes in the lineup and they were more active in using UFA and plater for player hockey trades to build the NHL club, then you could wait on Ostlund all you want, but I just don't see him helping the NHL team win any time soon if ever, except as a trade asset.

Thats my opinion.

I don't know if his timeline is that long - that's probably the longest or worst timeline progression to think it's six years. The team seems interested in bringing players over at earlier ages and while I'm not a fan, they did bring in Rosen at 19 and Kulich at 18 (and even Kozak starting the year at 19) so if DIF doesn't advance, his out on his contract may simply be coming over to the AHL. It could be that he's more like 1.5 seasons out from being a recall consideration. Or it could likely fall somewhere in between either side of that, and I'm cool with that too.

I'm not adverse to dealing him. I'm not keen on dealing him. If they deal him, I hope they get tremendous value. If they don't then hopefully he trends to being the player he has shown glimpses of being.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Mods:

New rule recommendation: any poster putting Ostlund is a trade proposal without first consulting me is subject to:

1st offense:
- 30 day ban
- Avatar change to Ostlund for first 30 days back on the board

2nd offense:
- 60 day ban
- Avatar change to Ostlund for first 60 days back on the board
- Written apology to me, Ostlund, and the nation of Sweden.

3rd offense: fire poster into the sun.

Thank you for your consideration.

 

[Zman5778]

I don't know if his timeline is that long - that's probably the longest or worst timeline progression to think it's six years. The team seems interested in bringing players over at earlier ages and while I'm not a fan, they did bring in Rosen at 19 and Kulich at 18 (and even Kozak starting the year at 19) so if DIF doesn't advance, his out on his contract may simply be coming over to the AHL. It could be that he's more like 1.5 seasons out from being a recall consideration. Or it could likely fall somewhere in between either side of that, and I'm cool with that too.

I'm not adverse to dealing him. I'm not keen on dealing him. If they deal him, I hope they get tremendous value. If they don't then hopefully he trends to being the player he has shown glimpses of being.

While I agree with most of this, I feel like Ostlund's already come out and said he's playing in Sweden both this year and the 23/24 year? Maybe I'm nuts?

 

[Bendium]

Who says we wait on Ostlund? We can let him develop and then sign a 3C in the interim or use other assets to trade for one. Or Krebs just takes on the 3C role.

If the right trade comes around, I've got no issues using him as an asset......but he's not a guy I'm in a hurry to use as an asset.

I agree with this in principle. However, it requires the Sabres to "sign a 3C" in the interim. That seems to be a failure point so far, and goes against this prevailing concept right now that we just have to be patient and let the young guys develop. I want our NHL team to be a good one, and for the first time in a long time we have a decent start on a good core to build around. So I am looking for ways keep building it. Some of out current NHL forwards need to go or be traded, we likely need to pick up 1-2 bottom six UFA's, and we absolutely should be looking at the trade market and willing to trade from excess to fill holes. Smallish skilled 1st round forward prospects is a current excess, and I am identifying Ostlund as one of them I am willing to part with to improve the NHL club in the nearer term than 5-6 years.

 

[Zman5778]

I agree with this in principle. However, it requires the Sabres to "sign a 3C" in the interim. That seems to be a failure point so far, and goes against this prevailing concept right now that we just have to be patient and let the young guys develop. I want out NHL team to be a good one, and for the first time in a long time we have a decent start on a good core to build around. So I am looking for ways to build it. SOme of out current NHL forwards need to go or be traded, we likely need to pick up 1-2 bottom six UFA's, and we absolutely should be looking at the trade market and willing to trade from excess to fill holes. Smallish skilled 1st round forward prospects is a current excess, and I am identifying Ostlund as one of them I am willing to part with to improve the NHL club in the nearer term than 5-6 years.

Do we need to sign that 3C though? We might have one in Krebs. He's looking real good between Girgensons and Okposo........and I don't think it's a stretch to think that he could anchor a 3rd line next year.

While I do agree that we have smallish and skilled forward prospects......Ostlund is the only one of that group who right now seems to be tracking to absolutely be a center in the NHL. Savoie is a maybe. Rosen/Kulich/Kisakov/Poltapor/Nadeau/Bloom all project to wing. That's why I'm a little more apt to hang onto Ostlund.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

Mods:

New rule recommendation: any poster putting Ostlund is a trade proposal without first consulting me is subject to:

1st offense:
- 30 day ban
- Avatar change to Ostlund for first 30 days back on the board

2nd offense:
- 60 day ban
- Avatar change to Ostlund for first 60 days back on the board
- Written apology to me, Ostlund, and the nation of Sweden.

3rd offense: fire poster into the sun.

Thank you for your consideration.

What if the trade was for a goalie, thus creating an EBUG situation that you could fill?

 

[Der Jaeger]

What if the trade was for a goalie, thus creating an EBUG situation that you could fill?

A rare rule exception

 

[Chainshot]

He and his fishbowl are back in action today. Just picked up a secondary assist on DIF's opening PP goal - right half-wall to the point, point shot to net front, net front score on the rebound.

Ah, hang on - video review.

 

[RefsIdeas]

While I agree with most of this, I feel like Ostlund's already come out and said he's playing in Sweden both this year and the 23/24 year? Maybe I'm nuts?

IIRC he said he wants to play 1 year in Sweden, then something like “maybe two would be best”.

 

[Ace]

I don’t know what the point even is of continuing to debate something an 18 year old said about his future plans knowing that things change all the time after experience. He could have said he’s 1000 percent staying in Sweden next year or that he’s 1000 percent leaving and it wouldn’t mean a thing. What matters is how he, and the organization, feel after this year of development. We don’t even know what league his team is going to play in.

 

[Chainshot]

As a note - the goal stood, he picked up the assist. It's a testy game with IF Bjorkloven. Yes. That is their name.