C Nick Suzuki - Guelph Storm, OHL (2017, 13th, VGK; traded to MTL)
- Thread starter Moveslikejagr247
- Start date
ObscureAlien
Registered User
- May 1, 2016
- 1,332
- 137
Not the biggest guy, not the fastest guy.
It's not about how good a player is in junior, it's about well a player projects to be at the NHL level.
Starry Knight
Tele-Wyatt
If I had to compare Suzuki to a recently graduated prospect, I'd probably go with Christian Dvorak.
Same sort of non-flashy, two-way, smart players.
Same sort of non-flashy, two-way, smart players.
ihaveyuidonttouchme
MrShiftbyShiftGuy
truthbluth
Registered User
- Feb 2, 2011
- 7,839
- 7,491
I think he is more puck-dominant than Dvorak was, but then again, Dvorak spent his last 2 years with Marner almost always on his wing (obviously a very puck dominant player). But, I can see some of the similarities, Dvorak had a better shot and release to me, but Suzuki has better hands. Dvorak was probably a slightly weaker skater but was a bit bigger/stronger which balances it out. Both are obviously very high-iq players, with strong work ethics. Don't really have one clear skill that constantly amazes you, but always find themselves in the right place and are well rounded enough skill wise to capitalize.
Either way, I'm sold on Suzuki being the guy I want my team to take in the 15-25 range. If you can get a kid who develops into what Dvorak looks to be, that is a very good pick for that range. Dvorak currently looks to be a solid NHLer who probably ends up a solid 2nd line center long-term. You re-do the 2014 draft right now, Dvorak is probably in the 8-15 range off the top of my head.
The more I watch of Suzuki, the more enamored I become with him. I am curious as to why certain prospects are graded so much higher, Nico Hischier for instance, when you compare the relative offensive production levels. I wonder if Suzuki might be one of those surprise high picks in this draft when it is all said and done.
Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
- 37,175
- 16,286
Non-flashy? I don't know about that, kid has some highlight reel goals to his name.
Starry Knight
Tele-Wyatt
Generally speaking, I mean. Dvorak had some highlight reel goals too, but on a shift-to-shift basis, both players use their IQ to make the right play.
Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
- 37,175
- 16,286
LastWordArmy
Registered User
I like the Fabbri comparison, that is the first thing I think of anytime I see this guy
I doubt anything is wrong with your analytic model. He's had by far the best season offensively in the CHL by a draft eligible player this year.
I've attempted to do a similar thing as you, and have seen how Suzuki runs away with it. I'd say a couple things are at play. Analytically, he is a top 5 pick, as the things he lacks aren't quantifiable. Many wish he could shoot harder and skate faster given his lack of an elite frame. I'd recommend reading the first chapter of Michel Lewis's new book The Undoing Project that follows Daryl Morey and his drafting for the Houston Rockets. The thing he found that was missing from his teams analytical model was weighing draft combine results. Now, for the NHL combine most of these tests are useless, but if everyone participated in something like the CHL on-ice combine, you might be able to create a model that at least incorporates how players do in skating drills. The issue with that is, the only test results you have are from players invited to the CHL top prospects games. A lot of things which hold down someone like Suzuki is, how good is his skating (when tested), how hard is his shot, etc. These things are all relatively quantifiable but are currently mostly judgment calls made by in-rink scouts. I think the NHL is a long way away from realizing this.
Just because your model tells you that Suzuki is a top 5 pick, doesn't mean there is something inherently wrong with it that needs to be tweaked. There will always be a need for a visual scouting staff, even with a solid model. The two things complement each other and don't run into conflict if managed correctly. The goal of analytics should be to help guide you to making better decisions, not to be dogmatically followed. I'd assume you may have read Iain Fyffe's chapter in the latest Hockey Abstract, where he addresses this issue.
Either way, Suzuki is the guy I'm hoping Leafs can get at 17/18, but considering his recent play, I consider it less likely by the day.
If he somehow leads Owen Sound past Erie (and most likely to the MC), his stock is going to explode. Glad to see him doing well, but also frustrating that he is probably playing himself out of my teams range.
Appreciate your insight above on factoring in combine results!
I think he is playing himself atleast into the top ten.
I was thinking this morning...what other super young 2017 draft eligible is leading his team deep into the playoffs? He's taking key face offs, killing penalties, running the PP, and driving the first line. Erie has loads of D+1 stars and still has their hands full with Owen Sound. Really remarkable the way Suzuki has taken the team on his back and looks like he is going for a walk in the park. Cool as a cucumber
- Mar 10, 2010
- 36,088
- 36,263
I feel that way about Heiskanen for the Jets, I fell in love with his game as the season progressed but I fear the U18's will drive him up into the top 10 now.
Suzuki is fascinating I think there is an undervaluing based on rankings I have seen and it is probably due to what you have laid out. Will his game transfer to the NHL because the individual tools don't jump off the page for a player of his size but the kid flat out produces? The more I see guys struggle in the NHL that had/have all the tools but no tool box the more I have learned to fall in love with overall skill-hands, mixed in with really high hockey IQ and drive as the dominant quality.
If the Jets grab Suzuki at 12 we could do allot worse.
Suzuki is smaller, but I remember Couture having similar knocks, and he's turned into a fringe 1st line center and a strong 1b/2a guy on a contender. When you look at who his numbers stack up well against (still in process of calculating as his season hasn't ended), he measures up well to guys like Fabbri who always seem to go a few spots too low.
- Mar 10, 2010
- 36,088
- 36,263
Yea I really liked Fabbri in his draft year the kid had that "it" factor when you watched him compete for Guelph. He was that well rounded fiery competitior that made things happen and was always in the middle of it.
Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
Travis Konecny was another undersized guy with that "it" factor that went way too low.
Someone should take Suzuki top-10.
I know it's to early to give a full breakdown of the trade but I wonder if the Leafs wish they kept that pick(24) instead of the 3 they picked up(34, 61 and 68)
