C Mitchell Marner - London Knights, OHL (2015 Draft)

[DrJenniferHanson]

So in other words, Marner is a much much better player than Domi and he should have even more points than he currently has if it wasn't for Domi's selfish play?

In the London games, absolutely yes. Without a doubt.

Playing with Domi has vastly limited his volume of touches, especially in the offensive zone. He's also forced to take much more responsibility in the defensive zone because Domi's always cheating up high, which has taken away Marner's outlet game off the breakout.

However, I will note the WJC-iteration of Domi is opposite the London-iteration of Domi. The WJC-Domi has a legit shot at being an NHL all-star. Problem is, we don't see that version in London except every once in a blue moon. I assume Tippett will extract the WJC-Domi. The London-Domi is the product of an enabling head coach (an otherwise excellent developer of talent) who lets hard-headed high profile players get away with seemingly whatever they want. Domi's not the first case of this in London.

Even all the puckhogging aside, he's a chronic floater in the defensive zone and is almost always last on the backcheck. It's symptomatic of someone who just wants to move on to the pro's and get juniors over with. On Oshawa's tying goal Friday, Domi (due to offensive zone positioning) was the highest forward on the backcheck on a 4v2. He skates to the bench for a change, and the 2nd highest forward busted his ass and ended up within one stride of the eventual goal scorer. Domi was 3 strides ahead of that backchecker before he skated to the bench--he would've caught the goal scorer had he not headed off the ice. That's the type of crap we're watching each game.

 

[one77]

In the London games, absolutely yes. Without a doubt.

However, I will note the WJC-iteration of Domi is opposite the London-iteration of Domi. The WJC-Domi has a legit shot at being an NHL all-star. Problem is, we don't see that version in London except every once in a blue moon. I assume Tippett will extract the WJC-Domi. The London-Domi is the product of an enabling head coach (an otherwise excellent developer of talent) who lets hard-headed star players get away with seemingly whatever they want. Domi's not the first case of this in London.

Even all the puckhogging aside, he's a chronic floater in the defensive zone and is almost always last on the backcheck. It's symptomatic of someone who just wants to move on to the pro's and get juniors over with. On Oshawa's tying goal Friday, Domi (due to offensive zone positioning) was the highest forward on the backcheck on a 4v2. He skates to the bench for a change, and the 2nd highest forward busted his ass and ended up within one stride of the eventual goal scorer. Domi was 3 strides ahead of that backchecker before he skated to the bench--he would've caught the goal scorer had he not headed off the ice. That's the type of crap we're watching each game.

Since you get to watch Marner more than most here, what is your NHL comparison for him? And how do you think he will fare in the bigs?

 

[SchennSational1022*]

LOL at "playing with Domi". This guy is a much better prospect and will be twice the NHL player Domi ever will be.

 

[DrJenniferHanson]

Since you get to watch Marner more than most here, what is your NHL comparison for him? And how do you think he will fare in the bigs?

Giroux/Gilmour hybrid, moreso Giroux. It sounds recycled, but those comparing him to Giroux (all-around) and Gilmour (offensively) are spot-on. I understand the Kane comparisons, but their defensive zone play, off-puck play, and somewhat their methods of offensive production differ.

I have no doubt Marner will transfer to the NHL. He's too well-rounded in all areas and employs an array of methods in offensive production not to.

@ Grapes on the previous page --
Yes, despite statistical trends of W(Jr)>C(NHL) conversions, I believe Marner can be an exception to the rule and be an upper third 1C in the NHL (if an NHL team deems centre-ship necessary). Marner played nearly all of his pre-junior career at centre with Don Mills, Vaughan, etc. Back then, he was usually the shortest player on the ice, and still won most of his faceoffs. His defensive zone positioning was excellent, as was his backchecking. He often had to carry the load offensively because he usually didn't play with similar talent (one year, the next best forward on his team was a current 11th-12th forward in the OHL). Teams shadowed him game after game so he was forced to diversify himself as a player. He was hugely successful at centre back then with a lot less to work with (shortest player on the ice, lack of similar talents to play with, often shadowed). This year, Marner has not played centre. Last year, Marner played centre for 12-15 games and was excellent. Becoming a RW sort of happened by accident because the player he works best with by far plays centre, so it ended up/stayed that way by default, especially with most of London's top forwards being left-handed (4 of the top 5 currently). Also, London last year had players like Tierney and Horvat at C, who obviously weren't ever moving to wing since they were already established as two of the better two-way centres in the league before Marner even made his OHL debut! And then even after Tierney/Horvat, London had 5 additional left-handers in its top-12. Just ran out of real estate in the lineup to consistently get that centre opportunity (London rarely employs forwards on their off wing).

 

[Grapes1]

Giroux/Gilmour hybrid, moreso Giroux. It sounds recycled, but those comparing him to Giroux (all-around) and Gilmour (offensively) are spot-on. I understand the Kane comparisons, but their defensive zone play, off-puck play, and somewhat their methods of offensive production differ.

I have no doubt Marner will transfer to the NHL. He's too well-rounded in all areas and employs an array of methods in offensive production not to.

@ Grapes on the previous page --
Yes, despite statistical trends of W(Jr)>C(NHL) conversions, I believe Marner can be an exception to the rule and be an upper third 1C in the NHL (if an NHL team deems centre-ship necessary). Marner played nearly all of his pre-junior career at centre with Don Mills, Vaughan, etc. Back then, he was usually the shortest player on the ice, and still won most of his faceoffs. His defensive zone positioning was excellent, as was his backchecking. He often had to carry the load offensively because he usually didn't play with similar talent (one year, the next best forward on his team was a current 11th-12th forward in the OHL). Teams shadowed him game after game so he was forced to diversify himself as a player. He was hugely successful at centre back then with a lot less to work with (shortest player on the ice, lack of similar talents to play with, often shadowed). This year, Marner has not played centre. Last year, Marner played centre for 12-15 games and was excellent. Becoming a RW sort of happened by accident because the player he works best with by far plays centre, so it ended up/stayed that way by default, especially with most of London's top forwards being left-handed (4 of the top 5 currently). Also, London last year had players like Tierney and Horvat at C, who obviously weren't ever moving to wing since they were already established as two of the better two-way centres in the league before Marner even made his OHL debut! And then even after Tierney/Horvat, London had 5 additional left-handers in its top-12. Just ran out of real estate in the lineup to consistently get that centre opportunity (London rarely employs forwards on their off wing).

Thanks nice summary

So there is a good chance, if he plays in London next year ,that he could be back at center with Domi and Dvorak graduating

 

[Rebels57]

This kid looks like a Claude Giroux clone to me. He's so intense and competitive, dare I say but he may be as good as McDavid one day.. Let the flaming commence..

Thought the exact same thing in the few games I have seen him play. Very intense competitor and his size barely deters anything he does out there. Eerily similar players just from the eye-test of watching them play.

I was hoping Philly would land him in the draft when they were struggling earlier because well, two Girouxs is better than one, but due to their recent run it looks like they will be out of the top 10 and maybe out of the top 15. Oh well.

 

[Beleafer4]

Can someone compare Marner to Drouin in his draft year in terms of playing style and upside?

 

[Swag Surf Aho]

1+1 tonight. 110 points in 53 games.

 

[So Truculent]

any chance he catches Kane's 145 pts...needs 35 more in final 10 games....had 10 in 3 games last week.

 

[Wintersun]

any chance he catches Kane's 145 pts...needs 35 more in final 10 games....had 10 in 3 games last week.

Doubt it. If he can end with more than 130 I'll already a happy man.

Not impossible that he heats up and does it, but probably 95% unlikely.

 

[So Truculent]

if he did do it, he would have to be going #3 in the draft imo

 

[lanky]

Thanks nice summary

So there is a good chance, if he plays in London next year ,that he could be back at center with Domi and Dvorak graduating

Even though the Coyotes will have center spots to fill, it would be a big surprise if Dvorak made the team.

I expect Dvorak and Marner to light up the OHL again next year.

 

[waingr0]

Marner > Hanifin

 

[Get North]

Marner > Hanifin

Both have high ceilings, I'd probably take Marner because he has so much skill and good speed along with a good understanding of what is happening around him when he's on the ice. Hanifin is solid but I have some questions about his offensive ability, shot isn't the best, skating is really good but I just don't see the great offensive ability to get anymore than 40 points in the NHL. More like a solid mobile two-way defenceman, that's why I like Marner more.

 

[lawrence]

Kids already surpassed what Tavares , and stamkos did in their draft years. If he was 6'1 and 195 lbs he be chasing down the 2nd overall pick. How 3 inches in height can make that much that much of a difference.

 

[shelf]

I know that I'm just manipulating numbers but....

Marner in has last 43 games has 105 points for 2.44 PTS/game

McDavid in his last 22 games has 50 points for 2.27 PTS/game

 

[Sid82]

no way he's gonna crack kane's 145 pt., but anyway pretty impressive what he's doing in his draft season, will be around 130...
some comparisons:
he's having actually 2,07 ppg, connor 2,55, drouin was 2, 14 in his draft year, 2,34 in his 3rd year in qjhml
i also doubt thats he'gonna make the nhl team in sep, simply cause lack of size and strenght, keep him another year in junior like jonny was..

 

[Zaddy]

Such an impressive season. Makes me wonder what kind of numbers he'll put up next year, especially if he keeps growing and can add a few pounds.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Kids already surpassed what Tavares , and stamkos did in their draft years. If he was 6'1 and 195 lbs he be chasing down the 2nd overall pick. How 3 inches in height can make that much that much of a difference.

He might not even be top 2 out of the OHL, he still has to pass Crouse

 

[Pi]

Please for God sakes keep losing. Outside of McEichel, Marner is by far my favorite prospect. I feel like Arizona will steal him. I want Marner over Hanifin.

 

[Face Of Bear]

Yeah if Arizona is at #3, I cant see them not taking him. Having him, Domi, and Dvorak wont even be fair a few years down the road

BUF- McD
EDM- Eichle
ARZ- Marner
CAR- Hanifin (unless CAR is desperate for a C prospect?)
TOR- Strome

 

[timlap]

Giroux/Gilmour hybrid, moreso Giroux. It sounds recycled, but those comparing him to Giroux (all-around) and Gilmour (offensively) are spot-on. I understand the Kane comparisons, but their defensive zone play, off-puck play, and somewhat their methods of offensive production differ.

...

I have only seen a couple of games on OHL livestream, so I'm certainly not an authority. But I watched Marner closely all the time he was on the ice, and while I was impressed, the one thing I didn't really see was the intensity. I wouldn't say he was totally passive, or always lurking on the periphery or anything like that. He had a solid compete level. But I didn't see the intensity I saw in Giroux as a prospect, and I'm not sure I saw the sheer nasty ability to disrupt the opposition that Gilmour had (though he may have it. Certainly Domi seems to have it).

In the defensive zone he seemed to have a lower intensity than in the offensive zone (not unusual for prospects). Some of that may be due to having a lesser role in the 'D' because he's a winger.

Probably more offence than Giroux and more goal scoring than Gilmour though.

I know some people around here are huge fans of Marner, and I'm not trying to rain on their parade. Just trying to sort through the scouting and the cheering to arrive at a good read. That high intensity thing is what I'm still looking for. I think he could have it, I just don't see it fully developed.

I like Marner as a prospect and have him safely in the 4/5 slot in what is a very strong draft at the top.

 

[BoHorvat 53]

Yeah if Arizona is at #3, I cant see them not taking him. Having him, Domi, and Dvorak wont even be fair a few years down the road

BUF- McD
EDM- Eichle
ARZ- Marner
CAR- Hanifin (unless CAR is desperate for a C prospect?)
TOR- Strome

Yeah, as of now it's Marner/Hanifin for 3rd overall. It's no longer 3 that are separated from the rest of the pack, it's now 4 IMO.

 

[dwanmaster*]

Yeah, as of now it's Marner/Hanifin for 3rd overall. It's no longer 3 that are separated from the rest of the pack, it's now 4 IMO.

The scouts don't feel the same way though

"We usually debate the top three picks in any draft for quite some time at our scouting meetings," one scout said. "This year, it took about one minute to say, McDavid-Eichel-Hanifin and there was no debate. We moved on to who's No. 4 almost immediately."

http://www.tsn.ca/mcdavid-the-unanimous-no-1-in-tsn-s-mid-season-ranking-1.193058

 

[Pi]

The scouts don't feel the same way though

"We usually debate the top three picks in any draft for quite some time at our scouting meetings," one scout said. "This year, it took about one minute to say, McDavid-Eichel-Hanifin and there was no debate. We moved on to who's No. 4 almost immediately."

http://www.tsn.ca/mcdavid-the-unanimous-no-1-in-tsn-s-mid-season-ranking-1.193058

I doubt that will be the case @ draft time. Marner has played ridiculously well this season.

I see Marner going 3rd overall. Might be the Seth Jones draft all over again.