C Mitchell Marner - London Knights, OHL (2015 Draft)

[D0ctorCool]

Where was he last game? Didn't dress.

Likely has something to do with the CHL Top Prospects game which is tomorrow.

 

[w e l o s t b o y s]

Likely has something to do with the CHL Top Prospects game which is tomorrow.

Where was he last game? Didn't dress.

confirming yes this is why

 

[oilerbear]

This is the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen posted for a justification.

If we get to cherry pick Marner's slow start out of the season, then let's cherry pick Mcdavid's less than stellar stats coming back to the OHL and get his ppg to what it was before 2.8 or whatever before he left for the World Juniors.

1. Who did he play withat the start of the year?
2. what is age of player for Projecting CHL PPG to NHL.
3. Are players of Equal size.

marner was
5'0" 90 lb at start of bantam
5'7" 130lb at Bantam Draft
Currently 5'11" 165lb
His brother is 6'2"
and mother is 5'10"

A height of 6'0" to 6'1" would not Be unexpected.

marner may 5 97 Birth
Mcdavid Jan 13 97 Birth
mcdavid is 4 months older

McDavid
first 7 games of the season for Mcdavid Being 17yr 8.25 months
7gm 6 EVG 1 PPG 4 EVA 9PPA +12
2.86PPG
1.43 EVPPPG
1.43 PPPG

Marner
Last 7 Gm for marner being 17yr 8.25 months
7gm 7EVG 11EVA 6 PPA +13
3.43PPG
2.57 EVPPG
0.86 PPPPG
at the same Age marner is 20% more productive than McDavid.
and
80% more productive at Even.

The best fPpforwards in the game usually get 40% of Ev production.
Most are 30%.
Mcdavids 1.42 PPP per game does nottranslate.
50% of 1.42

We look at mcdavid's performance Post WJC
5gm 3EVG 2PPG 2 EVA 2PPG -2
1.00 EVPPG
0.8 PPPPG

Mcdavid is 23 gm +32
2.61 PPG
15 EVG 22 EVA 1.61 EVP/gm
4 PPG 16 PPA .87 PPP/gm
2SHG 1SHA .13 SHP/gm

Marner in his Expanded Rolewhile 3 months younger than McDavid.
32Gm 33G 52A 85P +40
2.66PPG
22EVG 52 EVA 2.31 EVP/gm
10 PPG 24 PPA 1.06 PPP/gm

Marner performance age 17yr 5.25 months to 17yr 8.25 months
is superior to
Mcdavids 17yr 8.25month to 18 yr 0.25 months

you cannot exclude age diffrence at such a young physically developing age.

A late sept Player in his draft year will Likely translate 50% of his CHL scoring.
A Early sept Player (12months younger) in his draft year willLikely translate 74% of his CHL scoring.

So as we sit Mcdavid likely translate 58% of his scoring
Though EVP is a better measure with 40% of EVP a best case for PP production.
Marner is a May birth 65% of his scoring would be expected.

 

[TOML]

Likely has something to do with the CHL Top Prospects game which is tomorrow.

Ah so. Makes sense. Thanks.

 

[Approved Variety]

Would it be more appropriate to compare McD's stats this season vs Marner's stats next season?

 

[oilerbear]

Would it be more appropriate to compare McD's stats this season vs Marner's stats next season?

Equal Age!
You want to know how players are performing at eth same Age in CHL.
A guy generating 1.00PPG @17 years 0.5month is expected to be .74 PPG in NHL at 22.
A guy generating 1.00 PPG at 17years 11.5 months is expected to be .52 PPG @ 22 in NHL.

It is like Bennett and Draisatl.

Bennet projects to higher NHL total @ 22.

The concern is that kind of physical play fom small body type.
Shoulder Already.
Reminds me alot of Brule.
The physical and size aspect.

Draisatl 6'1" 212lb was about less Production and Footspeed concern.

Draisatl's Skills Competition was in the Cogliano range this year.
He beat Hall.

 

[Paxon]

Equal Age!
You want to know how players are performing at eth same Age in CHL.
A guy generating 1.00PPG @17 years 0.5month is expected to be .74 PPG in NHL at 22.
A guy generating 1.00 PPG at 17years 11.5 months is expected to be .52 PPG @ 22 in NHL.

It is like Bennett and Draisatl.

Bennet projects to higher NHL total @ 22.

The concern is that kind of physical play fom small body type.
Shoulder Already.
Reminds me alot of Brule.
The physical and size aspect.

Draisatl 6'1" 212lb was about less Production and Footspeed concern.

Draisatl's Skills Competition was in the Cogliano range this year.
He beat Hall.

Stage of development should be considered as important as age. The reason those percentages you're using even exist is because they compare someone's physical age relative to a stage of development, but here we have one player in his third CHL season and another in his second, which should be giving McDavid an advantage much greater than difference of age. McDavid's a special case of course due to his acceleration, otherwise they'd both be in their second CHL seasons. He's clearly the better prospect but considering the advantage he has it does make Marner's numbers look all the more impressive.

 

[MichaelJ]

Is there any consensus on his height and weight? I've seen him listed at 5'10", 5'11", and read an article that put him at 6'0".

 

[Juxtaposer]

Is there any consensus on his height and weight? I've seen him listed at 5'10", 5'11", and read an article that put him at 6'0".

I think CSS had him at 5'11" exactly, but I can't remember. Regardless, as long as he puts on weight his size really shouldn't be an issue.



An interesting thing I've noted is that when it comes to defensive play, Marner backchecks like a demon, is great at poking pucks away and putting pressure on the puck-carrier, but he's not a real special defensive player in terms of defensive positioning and he's usually the high forward and will blow the zone looking for offensive opportunities. These things make me think he's more suited to be a winger than a center.

 

[MichaelJ]

I think CSS had him at 5'11" exactly, but I can't remember. Regardless, as long as he puts on weight his size really shouldn't be an issue.



An interesting thing I've noted is that when it comes to defensive play, Marner backchecks like a demon, is great at poking pucks away and putting pressure on the puck-carrier, but he's not a real special defensive player in terms of defensive positioning and he's usually the high forward and will blow the zone looking for offensive opportunities. These things make me think he's more suited to be a winger than a center.

I don't think it's out of the question that he winds up 6'0" 180-185 would be fine for a high scoring, tenacious RW.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I don't think it's out of the question that he winds up 6'0" 180-185 would be fine for a high scoring, tenacious RW.

Agreed. Anyone with size concerns over Marner is just nit-picking.

 

[Romanich7]

This kid is like a crossbreed between Seguin and Kane. Lots of talent.

 

[Paxon]

Agreed. Anyone with size concerns over Marner is just nit-picking.

Agreed. Worrying about his size holding him back is not a real concern to me. Now, if someone is comparing him to, say, Crouse, Zacha, or Strome, then they can say those guys have a serious advantage Marner doesn't have with their size, just like he has some advantages they don't, but the size isn't a serious issue, just like it isn't for Drouin, Ehlers, Nylander, etc. Those guys are all between 5'10" and 6'0" just like a ton of the above-average and top players in the league. None of those guys are built like tanks either, so yeah, you expect them to be at a disadvantage in very specific parts of the game, but they're all smart players who know when to rely on footspeed and handspeed over muscle in one-on-one situations and battles.

 

[DrJenniferHanson]

Marner left yesterday's game after this hit. Not expected to miss any games, but in a lot of pain with bruised elbow and facial injuries.

https://vine.co/u/1171331767639166976

 

[Halfy]

Marner left yesterday's game after this hit. Not expected to miss any games, but in a lot of pain with bruised elbow and facial injuries.

https://vine.co/u/1171331767639166976

Dang. That was a bad hit. Dangerous.

 

[Get North]

The CHL is a pretty dangerous league, the OHL and WHL in particular have alot of fights, dirty hits. Maybe not dirty but pretty big hits, makes it fun to watch because I don't see physical hockey anymore in the NHL.

 

[zeropotentate]

here's a question, when was the last time a 17 year old lead the CHL in scoring? And a follow up question, when is the last time a 17 year old lead the CHL in scoring and wasn't taken 1st in the NHL draft?

 

[3 Minute Minor]

here's a question, when was the last time a 17 year old lead the CHL in scoring? And a follow up question, when is the last time a 17 year old lead the CHL in scoring and wasn't taken 1st in the NHL draft?

Nic Petan 2013, 2nd round pick.

Before that:
Crosby
P-M Boucard
Ramzi Abid
Marc Savard
Rob Brown
Pat Lafontaine

Crosby is the only 1st overall pick.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/awards.php?award=CHL Top Scorer Award

Edit: I missed Pat Kane Edit: Nope. Forgot Kane was a late birthday

 

[DrJenniferHanson]

here's a question, when was the last time a 17 year old lead the CHL in scoring? And a follow up question, when is the last time a 17 year old lead the CHL in scoring and wasn't taken 1st in the NHL draft?

Crosby;
PM Bouchard

 

[DrJenniferHanson]

Nic Petan 2013, 2nd round pick.

Before that:
Crosby
P-M Boucard
Ramzi Abid
Marc Savard
Rob Brown
Pat Lafontaine

Crosby is the only 1st overall pick.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/awards.php?award=CHL Top Scorer Award

Petan is right.

I went off the CHL Top Scorer Award list which went to Leipsic that year. Petan tied him so was technically right but didn't show up on the award list I was looking at because of it.

Kane was 18 so didn't count.

 

[3 Minute Minor]

Petan is right.

I went off the CHL Top Scorer Award list which went to Leipsic that year. Petan tied him so was technically right but didn't show up on the award list I was looking at because of it.

Kane was 18 so didn't count.

truth. I over thought it lol

 

[zeropotentate]

whoa, thanks. Super interesting.

 

[Steezer99]

Anyone else think Marner may be a better prospect than Eichel?

Marner's PPG is considerably higher than Eichel's (2.03 vs 1.69) AND Marner plays in the OHL.

We all know from the McDavid vs. Eichel threat that the OHL is the better league. So that means Marner is better than Eichel too right?

Marners game might not translate to the NHL, he his small and skilled. He might not be able to pull off some of the things he does now.

 

[Pyromaniac]

Marners game might not translate to the NHL, he his small and skilled. He might not be able to pull off some of the things he does now.

People say the same thing about every undersized highly skilled prospect. And yet the same thing apply to big guys who use their size to their advantage against smaller players in junior.

The point is the same comment to apply to nearly every single prospect. Its a big jump from junior to NHL.

 

[Samsonite23]

He's not even that small. People need to stop with that stuff.