How full circle this has gone is hilarious, first he wasn't producing like other top OHL players because he didn't have talent around him (valid claim), then he got Konecny and he wasn't producing because of Konecny (not so valid), and now he can produce because of no Konecny (not valid with a 1 game sample). His team has still dropped 2 of 3 to a 7 seed, lets see if he can lead them to the next round.
C/LW Pavel Zacha - Sarnia Sting, OHL (2015, 6th, NJD)
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Zacha could be the case of being a player who needs to be "the guy". On NJ he has that perfect opportunity. Not that that's a good thing, though. Hockey is a team sport.
Its not like his production was great when he was the guy in the year and a half before Konecny.
Brooklyndevil
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Brooklyndevil
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Playoffs is when it counts. He may turn out better than Strome or Marner when they all play with the big boys.
Baemon Severson*
N1CO!!!
Huh?
34 pts in 24 without TK isn't good? That's 1.41 PPG and he was the only PPG player prior to Konecny's arrival.
BomaLightDevils
Registered User
Actually he did my friend, up till konecny arrived he was carrying the team on he's back. First came miestele and he's point went up(logically) and then konecny.
About the first year up til he's draft, you are saying that PPG in he's first year in Canada I not impressive.
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Brooklyndevil
Registered User
Playoffs is when it counts. He may turn out better than Strome or Marner when they all play with the big boys.
Our system didn' tlike zacha in his draft year. That's not fair, it didn't dislike him, it just liked a lot of other players more.
Comparing his DY-1 to DY+1 seasons he definitly took a step forward, improving from a 42% chance of success to a 60% chance of success.
What type of players he comps out to though are still all over the map.
His closest comp is Ryan Getzlaf (1 inch difference, equivelent NHLE over DY and DY +1, though Zacha scored more as a younger player and less in DY+1)
Next is Jordan Caron (1 inch difference, -1 NHLE over DY and DY+1)
Ryan Johnsen is also very close (1 inch dfiference, -2 NHLE in DY)
Radek Smolenak is also very close (+1 NHLE and 1 inch in height)
Definitly lots to still be optimistic about for NJD fans, even though he statistically was not as safe at draft time as he is now.
edit (other close comps were RJ Umberger, Benoit Pouliout, Ryan Martindale, Ryan O'Mara, and Ryan Martindale)
Comparing his DY-1 to DY+1 seasons he definitly took a step forward, improving from a 42% chance of success to a 60% chance of success.
What type of players he comps out to though are still all over the map.
His closest comp is Ryan Getzlaf (1 inch difference, equivelent NHLE over DY and DY +1, though Zacha scored more as a younger player and less in DY+1)
Next is Jordan Caron (1 inch difference, -1 NHLE over DY and DY+1)
Ryan Johnsen is also very close (1 inch dfiference, -2 NHLE in DY)
Radek Smolenak is also very close (+1 NHLE and 1 inch in height)
Definitly lots to still be optimistic about for NJD fans, even though he statistically was not as safe at draft time as he is now.
edit (other close comps were RJ Umberger, Benoit Pouliout, Ryan Martindale, Ryan O'Mara, and Ryan Martindale)
Baemon Severson*
N1CO!!!
Do you take into account team strength?
Zacha led Sarnia in points this year while Smolenak was third on his.
For a top 8 pick in the OHL that isn't great production for an 18 year old, look at what the typical top 8 pick puts up in their first post draft year.
below a ppg isn't great for a highly regarded import. Look at what Yak, Ehlers, Nylander, Burakovsky, and Grigorenko did, and even guys who started off not great exploded in their second year like Draisatl and Meier. Maybe he ends up being an exception like Landeskog.
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Baemon Severson*
N1CO!!!
Barzal put up a 1.51 this year in weaker league and loaded up on assists, yet is regarded much higher on this website.
Crouse, 1.26
Meier, Strome and Marner play on 3 of the best teams in the entire CHL. How can you possibly compare their point totals?
Cheddabombs
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- Mar 13, 2012
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Points are one thing, but they aren't everything. When the Devils sent Zacha back down to the Sting they told him to work on his penalty killing and his defense and by all accounts he's done magnificently in that regard. He won the best penalty killer in the coaches poll, right? Maybe he's focused on defense a little too much at times and that somewhat limited his offensive output but that's fine. I'd rather him be good on defense when he's called up then losing assignments left and right and being a sieve.
We've seen something similar happen with Blandisi this year, where even though he was doing well offensively they put him on the 3rd line for not being strong enough in his own end. They place a high emphasis on being able to defend properly. So Zacha developing that aspect of his game before jumping to the NHL is promising.
It's just funny to see the stat watchers come in and make outrageous claims to his potential. As if that's the only measure of his game...
We've seen something similar happen with Blandisi this year, where even though he was doing well offensively they put him on the 3rd line for not being strong enough in his own end. They place a high emphasis on being able to defend properly. So Zacha developing that aspect of his game before jumping to the NHL is promising.
It's just funny to see the stat watchers come in and make outrageous claims to his potential. As if that's the only measure of his game...
WHL may be weaker but tends to be harder to score in and Barzal's team is weak. Crouse was drafted 11th if I recall. And I thought playing with top talent is why Zacha didn't score with Konecny, so now thats the reason Marner, Strome and Meier are scoring at a high end rate? Him and Crouse also had the exact same primary points per game (same as Bracco), and behind other 18 or youngers such as Fischer, Debrincat and Tkachuk. His even strength primary point production was behind Marner, Strome, Konecny, Debrincat, Mascherin, Stephens, Bracco, Crouse, Raddysh, Senyshen, Tkachuk and Matt Luff, I didn't bother listing guys who were in the 2014 or lower draft class.
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I agree with you. Some of the things Devils fans bring up to explain his lack of production is...thin. First it was his team wasn't good enough, then he didn't react well to trades that brought more talent?
What all this ultimately means down the road is a different conversation. He's got a lot more time to develop his game.
Baemon Severson*
N1CO!!!
He sustained a muscular LBI at the WJC that he played through. He missed a few games with a concussion in February/early March and has exploded since:
Pre WJC (which is pre Konecny too)- 30 pts in 23 games
Post WJC-Concussion- 21 pts in 21 games
Post Concussion-Present- 20 pts in 10 games
Being able to rest his injury for a couple of weeks without a doubt helped him. Sting fans said he was a different player. It also doesnt help that he is being played out of position. I think his game is much better suited for the wing. The problem is, who the hell would play center for the Sting?
Anyway, I share your skepticism in some regards and there are some questions that he needs to answer. However, he looks to have turned a corner. His skillset is mesmerizing
I'm sorry, but we did not draft a penalty killer at 6. Zacha might fulfill his potential and he might not, but he was drafted to score goals. This PK stuff is great and all, but it's not like he had nothing left to prove offensively in juniors.
Cheddabombs
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Of course penalty killing is everything... I was just saying that the Devils' coaching staff and management told him to specifically to work on his defense and PK abilities, and he did. That's what juniors is for no? To work on parts of his game before he gets to the NHL, and especially the parts our own coaching staff tells him to. Of course I'd love for him to have ripped up the juniors with regards to points but that's not the whole game.
Listen, I get that. I'm just saying he should probably be working on the thing we drafted him for and not the ancillary facet of his game that can be tought at any time down the line.
Which isn't to say he's not working on both. I just find it odd to counter production questions with, "yeah, but he's been a great penalty killer".
Cheddabombs
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Not yet as it simply has not been modeled to show a correlation to future success yet, where as pure ppg scoring and height have.
we're looking and testing new things but don't have the data to confirm %of team points or relative team strength has an impact.
edit: also to those saying "points aren't everything" keep this in mind:
Simple equations using points per game and height in draft year have outdrafted nearly half the teams in the league over a 10 year span.
Are they everything? No, but that's a sign that roughly 50% of the scouting community isn't putting as much weight on them as they should be.
If you're high on a player and he doesn't score, you should be looking at why, how, and how far off should a guy you like this much "be" scoring? The actual of the value is probably somewhere between where you value him, and where the points value him (and...unless your willing to say your a better scout then almost half the NHL's, it's probably CLOSER to the stats then your opinion).
This is meant mainly for the bigger gaps (40% for a guy like Zacha vs 70+% for guys like Connor and Svechnikov). When your looking at guys maybe within a 10% swing, i think you can probably feel a little more confident in trusting your scouting. But consider how you'd view a guy like Zacha vs Connor or Svechnikov. Does your "scouting" make you feel he is more then DOUBLE either of those players, as if you apply equal weight to stats and scouting, that's how much you'd have to like him for him to be "better".
I just wanted to through that out there.
The whole "points aren't everything" is a slippery slope, as unfortunately, for the past 10-15 years they've actually been undervalued by scouts at the draft table, not overvalued.
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Do you have this data somewhere? Sent a pm asking. Seems like an attempt at PETCOA.
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