C/LW Pavel Zacha - Sarnia Sting, OHL (2015, 6th, NJD)

[Grind]

Blows my mind people are discussing this seriously... like PPG is the Da Vinci code of prospects.. You have to look at what exactly the kind of player you are dealing with... Okposo and Wheeler never cracked a PPG in college, Getzlaf, Ladd, Horton all did not blow the doors off junior. James Neal, Wayne Simmonds too. His post-draft year production is similar to Scheifele's too. It is pretty clear when you look at the kind of players all these guys are, that if you have size at your advantage and a certain skillset you do not need as many points to translate as a smaller player... You have to watch and evaluate the skillset of the player at the end of the day and take into account many factors..

It is so clear that half the NHL's scouting departments routinely **** it up?

Obviously you want to do both. You want to combine the too schools together and 9/10 times pick the guy that excels at both.

basic PPG draft methods have outdrafted nearly 50% of NHL teams in tests. That's absolutely shameful for the scouting community anyway you slice it. the most basic versions beat over 25% of teams.


do you know how many teams should be getting beaten by PPG drafting and publicly available data that takes almost no manipulation? zero. Zero is the only acceptable answer for the multi-million dollar scouting departments that can be undermined by a simple equation.

and i'd imagine the work the PCS guys got to (which is more indepth then simply PPG and height) started beating teams even more then that.

 

[Fire Sweeney]

Blows my mind people are discussing this seriously... like PPG is the Da Vinci code of prospects.. You have to look at what exactly the kind of player you are dealing with... Okposo and Wheeler never cracked a PPG in college, Getzlaf, Ladd, Horton all did not blow the doors off junior. James Neal, Wayne Simmonds too. His post-draft year production is similar to Scheifele's too. It is pretty clear when you look at the kind of players all these guys are, that if you have size at your advantage and a certain skillset you do not need as many points to translate as a smaller player... You have to watch and evaluate the skillset of the player at the end of the day and take into account many factors..

First of all... Simmonds and Neal were drafted very low, so not comparable. Then you look at the 2004 draft, pretty weak after Ovechkin and Malkin.

2015 will end up being one of the best drafts ever. Guys like Senyshyn and Debrusk posting weak ppg stats will end up being huge letdowns compared to superior players picked lower than them.

 

[93LEAFS]

First of all... Simmonds and Neal were drafted very low, so not comparable. Then you look at the 2004 draft, pretty weak after Ovechkin and Malkin.

2015 will end up being one of the best drafts ever. Guys like Senyshyn and Debrusk posting weak ppg stats will end up being huge letdowns compared to superior players picked lower than them.

His numbers aren't weak, he plays on a bad team, had the 3rd best goal scoring rate of any player in there 18 year old year behind Marner and Debrincat, and had the 2nd best at Es behind Debrincat. Those are far from bad numbers.

Back to Zacha, yes, maybe he will be the big center exception, but I think its just as likely he ends up a middle sixer, and has a ceiling of Jordan Staal. For every James Neal and Bertuzzi in the OHL, there is a Benoit Pouliot, Kassian, and Mark Bell. The last elite power-forward out of the OHL was Corey Perry, he was destroying the league at these ages.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

His numbers aren't weak, he plays on a bad team, had the 3rd best goal scoring rate of any player in there 18 year old year behind Marner and Debrincat, and had the 2nd best at Es behind Debrincat. Those are far from bad numbers.

Back to Zacha, yes, maybe he will be the big center exception, but I think its just as likely he ends up a middle sixer, and has a ceiling of Jordan Staal. For every James Neal and Bertuzzi in the OHL, there is a Benoit Pouliot, Kassian, and Mark Bell. The last elite power-forward out of the OHL was Corey Perry, he was destroying the league at these ages.

Benoit Pouliot, terrible attitude and soft. Kassian doesn't have have a fraction of the skill Zacha has plus has a drug problem. Mark Bell was a pretty good power forward during the dead puck era until his driving accident. These are comparable situations only based on size and points. Why not use PPG as a baseline then adapt it for things like attitude, transferable skills ect.

 

[Grind]

Benoit Pouliot, terrible attitude and soft. Kassian doesn't have have a fraction of the skill Zacha has plus has a drug problem. Mark Bell was a pretty good power forward during the dead puck era until his driving accident. These are comparable situations only based on size and points. Why not use PPG as a baseline then adapt it for things like attitude, transferable skills ect.

that is the ideal situation, but even then your going to limit yourself to one or two players as comparables....not much of a sample size.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

that is the ideal situation, but even then your going to limit yourself to one or two players as comparables....not much of a sample size.

Instead of finding comparables maybe give height and age a pro multiplier. That way you have the whole spectrum of Jr players to use. I'm sure it has been done though.

 

[93LEAFS]

Benoit Pouliot, terrible attitude and soft. Kassian doesn't have have a fraction of the skill Zacha has plus has a drug problem. Mark Bell was a pretty good power forward during the dead puck era until his driving accident. These are comparable situations only based on size and points. Why not use PPG as a baseline then adapt it for things like attitude, transferable skills ect.

Except the things your using didn't emerge til later in there career except Kassian's lack of high end skill, but the fact someone just as big and less skilled produced at similar rates is somewhat telling. I'm not saying just scout the box score. I've watched Zacha multiple times at WJC and OHL, including live. Watching him there are time I think Ryan Macinnis is the better player, he can easily disappear, and rarely implements his will on the game, when he does he can dominate, but it is to rare. I've rarely seen him step up when facing other top players, beating up on Oshawa, Flint and Niagara is good, but almost expected. Its just annoying people focus on exceptions like they are the norm, then dismiss the busts or disappointments. Perlini also fits these profiles, and I don't think he'll make it far either.

He is also more of a Rick Nash type of big power guy, than the guys who are meaner and tend to take longer. Lawson Crouse plays a much tougher game with high end two way skills and was just as productive. Dylan Strome is a similar size and plays a softer game but also dominated the league.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

Except the things your using didn't emerge til later in there career except Kassian's lack of high end skill, but the fact someone just as big and less skilled produced at similar rates is somewhat telling. I'm not saying just scout the box score. I've watched Zacha multiple times at WJC and OHL, including live. Watching him there are time I think Ryan Macinnis is the better player, he can easily disappear, and rarely implements his will on the game, when he does he can dominate, but it is to rare. I've rarely seen him step up when facing other top players, beating up on Oshawa, Flint and Niagara is good, but almost expected. Its just annoying people focus on exceptions like they are the norm, then dismiss the busts or disappointments. Perlini also fits these profiles, and I don't think he'll make it far either.

He is also more of a Rick Nash type of big power guy, than the guys who are meaner and tend to take longer. Lawson Crouse plays a much tougher game with high end two way skills and was just as productive. Dylan Strome is a similar size and plays a softer game but also dominated the league.

I can't speak for viewing Zacha all that much. I saw him play in preseason with the devils where he surprised me quite a bit with his puck moving ability. I've also seen him at the WJC where I was completely underwhelmed with his ability to get open but it appears he was playing injured. He appears to have consistency issues, maybe bored? I believe these playoffs should be a a good measuring stick for his true production rate. Based on twitter is a playing like a man possessed.

 

[BomaLightDevils]

Except the things your using didn't emerge til later in there career except Kassian's lack of high end skill, but the fact someone just as big and less skilled produced at similar rates is somewhat telling. I'm not saying just scout the box score. I've watched Zacha multiple times at WJC and OHL, including live. Watching him there are time I think Ryan Macinnis is the better player, he can easily disappear, and rarely implements his will on the game, when he does he can dominate, but it is to rare. I've rarely seen him step up when facing other top players, beating up on Oshawa, Flint and Niagara is good, but almost expected. Its just annoying people focus on exceptions like they are the norm, then dismiss the busts or disappointments. Perlini also fits these profiles, and I don't think he'll make it far either.

He is also more of a Rick Nash type of big power guy, than the guys who are meaner and tend to take longer. Lawson Crouse plays a much tougher game with high end two way skills and was just as productive. Dylan Strome is a similar size and plays a softer game but also dominated the league.

This guy!!!

Zacha is everything Rick Playoff Choke Nash isn't. He's as mean as they come when you look at how much skill he has. Zacha plays physical in a way Rick Nash has and will not ever be able to because he is soft as warm butter.

You can compare the power in their skating and how good of a player they both are to get out of the zone give and counterattack.

 

[Baemon Severson*]

Except the things your using didn't emerge til later in there career except Kassian's lack of high end skill, but the fact someone just as big and less skilled produced at similar rates is somewhat telling. I'm not saying just scout the box score. I've watched Zacha multiple times at WJC and OHL, including live. Watching him there are time I think Ryan Macinnis is the better player, he can easily disappear, and rarely implements his will on the game, when he does he can dominate, but it is to rare. I've rarely seen him step up when facing other top players, beating up on Oshawa, Flint and Niagara is good, but almost expected. Its just annoying people focus on exceptions like they are the norm, then dismiss the busts or disappointments. Perlini also fits these profiles, and I don't think he'll make it far either.

He is also more of a Rick Nash type of big power guy, than the guys who are meaner and tend to take longer. Lawson Crouse plays a much tougher game with high end two way skills and was just as productive. Dylan Strome is a similar size and plays a softer game but also dominated the league.

Is that true? There is a poster that tweets a lot of highlights of Zacha (including hits) and he seems to lay a huge one almost every game. Not to mention the guy gets suspended all the time . His game seems pretty mean to me.

 

[93LEAFS]

Is that true? There is a poster that tweets a lot of highlights of Zacha (including hits) and he seems to lay a huge one almost every game. Not to mention the guy gets suspended all the time . His game seems pretty mean to me.

Compared to truly mean kids like Crouse, Kassian or Max Jones, or guys like Bertuzzi, he's much softer.

 

[John Pedro]

LOL

Zacha isn't mean? He's a punisher out there. He always lay big hits in the offensive/neutral zone. He also got called a lot for cross-checking and boarding. Even in the WJC where he was injured, he was a hitting machine and a pain in the ass on the forecheck.

Talk all you want about his production, but saying he's not mean is just plain wrong.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

Compared to truly mean kids like Crouse, Kassian or Max Jones, or guys like Bertuzzi, he's much softer.

Aka North Americans, this stigma that European players can't be "mean guys" is silly.

 

[93LEAFS]

I can't speak for viewing Zacha all that much. I saw him play in preseason with the devils where he surprised me quite a bit with his puck moving ability. I've also seen him at the WJC where I was completely underwhelmed with his ability to get open but it appears he was playing injured. He appears to have consistency issues, maybe bored? I believe these playoffs should be a a good measuring stick for his true production rate. Based on twitter is a playing like a man possessed.

He's playing a weak 7 seed (each conf only has 10 teams) he should be destroying them. He's doing well but his team is still down.

This guy!!!

Zacha is everything Rick Playoff Choke Nash isn't. He's as mean as they come when you look at how much skill he has. Zacha plays physical in a way Rick Nash has and will not ever be able to because he is soft as warm butter.

You can compare the power in their skating and how good of a player they both are to get out of the zone give and counterattack.

Rick Nash was physical in junior, Zacha's big and lays quality hits but he's far from a physical monster at the junior level.

 

[93LEAFS]

Aka North Americans, this stigma that European players can't be "mean guys" is silly.

Bobby Holik was mean, this kid is physical, but he's not some rough and tumble power forward.

Edit: For example, Tkachuk who plays for the team I watch the most of is physical and racks up penalty minutes, I wouldn't describe him as mean either.

 

[BomaLightDevils]

Bobby Holik was mean, this kid is physical, but he's not some rough and tumble power forward.

Edit: For example, Tkachuk who plays for the team I watch the most of is physical and racks up penalty minutes, I wouldn't describe him as mean either.

Holik was from another time another game, you could do those things he did and most of the time don't get penalized, that is over now. Perspective please.

Zacha is mean, he is nasty, he plays that gritty game with speed and skill. This is why we are discussing him so much and on we're he should have been drafted.

He possesses all and I mean all things to be a all-star, again it's just a matter if he can string them together. If he is developed right he can be the next power forward number C who does it all and with a mean streak.

Look up he penalties and he suspensions. You said you watched him play, then you will know. Many of he's penalties is stupid retaliation.

 

[93LEAFS]

Holik was from another time another game, you could do those things he did and most of the time don't get penalized, that is over now. Perspective please.

Zacha is mean, he is nasty, he plays that gritty game with speed and skill. This is why we are discussing him so much and on we're he should have been drafted.

He possesses all and I mean all things to be a all-star, again it's just a matter if he can string them together. If he is developed right he can be the next power forward number C who does it all and with a mean streak.

Look up he penalties and he suspensions. You said you watched him play, then you will know. Many of he's penalties is stupid retaliation.

Fine, he's mean by modern standards. Just from watching the OHL, he's closer to Tkachuk, than someone like Max Jones or previously Kassian. And I'd say he lacks the consistency to be an all-star, or the high end scoring instincts. Think closer to Jordan Staal than Erik or Getzlaf.

 

[Baemon Severson*]

Fine, he's mean by modern standards. Just from watching the OHL, he's closer to Tkachuk, than someone like Max Jones or previously Kassian. And I'd say he lacks the consistency to be an all-star, or the high end scoring instincts. Think closer to Jordan Staal than Erik or Getzlaf.

If he ends up Jordan Staal, I'd be ecstatic. Do you think his numbers would see a boost if he got moved to LW? I think he's miscast as a C

 

[93LEAFS]

If he ends up Jordan Staal, I'd be ecstatic. Do you think his numbers would see a boost if he got moved to LW? I think he's miscast as a C

Maybe, but you would think even at center he would of capitalized more off TK's playmaking. He'd have to adapt and it would mean more of a crash-bang style of game and rely more on other creating the play. Its more risk but the payoff may be a 1st line scoring winger. Right now I'd say, I'd be more comfortable developing him in a 2-way second line center capacity. A guy who takes the tougher assignments, PK and D-zone starts, which allows for your stars to get easier minutes. The very best at that are legit #1 centers (Toews, Kopitar and Bergeron), but I don't feel Zacha has quite that level, but the tier below it is a guy like Jordan Staal, Couturier, or even Ryan Kesler, who has excelled as a scoring, shut down center with tough minutes.

I'm not saying its likely, but I would think Zacha's ideal role on a contending team is that tough 2nd line center, as I'd value that over most scoring wingers, unless we are talking 40 goal guys, and as good as Zacha's shot is I don't see him having the instincts needed. If he can't be the Jordan Staal guy I described he can be developed into a top 6 all around winger with ability to score and grind (think Kulemin) or used as a 3rd line shut down center. He's quite adaptable (think B Schenn, as a prospect for example, though Schenn had better playmaking instincts, which flashed 1st line center potential), but if I was the Devil's I would try the versatile 2nd line center, and go for the others if that fails.

 

[Blender]

Maybe, but you would think even at center he would of capitalized more off TK's playmaking.

Zacha and Konecny played apart more than they played together, so I'm not sure how Zacha was supposed to be capitalizing off of his playmaking.

 

[93LEAFS]

Zacha and Konecny played apart more than they played together, so I'm not sure how Zacha was supposed to be capitalizing off of his playmaking.

They got powerplay time together, and were used together at various points. Its probably that Sarnia realized Zacha strength was controlling his own line and playing tougher minutes, to open up the game for the top scoring line, which is what I think his role will be at the next level, in either a high end 2nd liner capacity or in a 3rd line one if he fails to reach his potential. His goal scoring on the PP despite his elite shot left room for improvement.

 

[Group Chat Legend*]

Maybe, but you would think even at center he would of capitalized more off TK's playmaking. He'd have to adapt and it would mean more of a crash-bang style of game and rely more on other creating the play. Its more risk but the payoff may be a 1st line scoring winger. Right now I'd say, I'd be more comfortable developing him in a 2-way second line center capacity. A guy who takes the tougher assignments, PK and D-zone starts, which allows for your stars to get easier minutes. The very best at that are legit #1 centers (Toews, Kopitar and Bergeron), but I don't feel Zacha has quite that level, but the tier below it is a guy like Jordan Staal, Couturier, or even Ryan Kesler, who has excelled as a scoring, shut down center with tough minutes.

I'm not saying its likely, but I would think Zacha's ideal role on a contending team is that tough 2nd line center, as I'd value that over most scoring wingers, unless we are talking 40 goal guys, and as good as Zacha's shot is I don't see him having the instincts needed. If he can't be the Jordan Staal guy I described he can be developed into a top 6 all around winger with ability to score and grind (think Kulemin) or used as a 3rd line shut down center. He's quite adaptable (think B Schenn, as a prospect for example, though Schenn had better playmaking instincts, which flashed 1st line center potential), but if I was the Devil's I would try the versatile 2nd line center, and go for the others if that fails.

Lol Zacha a 3rd liner?

Idk what youve been watching.

He will be a top 6 NHLer or not on the Devils at all.

 

[93LEAFS]

Lol Zacha a 3rd liner?

Idk what youve been watching.

He will be a top 6 NHLer or not on the Devils at all.

I don't know what world you live in if a player drafted 6th overall and hasn't put up elite numbers, has a potential floor of a 3rd liner, is an unrealistic scenario. I'm sure you are an avid OHL watcher. Did I say that is what he most likely is? No, I said it was a possible outcome.

 

[sidewhinder91]

He's also a penalty killing machine. He was voted in the OHL coaches poles as the leagues best penalty killer. Helped the Sarnia Sting to the top ranked PK in the OHL.

He may not put up Konecny like points, but he holds his weight in value in other areas.

 

[AlternateSideParking]

I watched enough of Zacha the last two years to know the Devils made the right choice. He's a dynamic 200-foot player. Super smart. Elite skills.