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C/LW Pavel Zacha - Sarnia Sting, OHL (2015, 6th, NJD)

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93LEAFS said:
Do you have this data somewhere? Sent a pm asking. Seems like an attempt at PETCOA.
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reply'd.

Sham Sharron and PCS Draft System are the best documented and have the most data behind them.

Our system is quite basic and similar to the later version of the Sham Sharron method, but tracked very similarly for PCS for the 2015 draft (draft ranking was extremely close, though our percentages were generally higher due to restricting previous samples to only players drafted)
 
Brooklyndevil said:
Playoffs is when it counts. He may turn out better than Strome or Marner when they all play with the big boys.
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Yea, so 3 points while getting knocked out in 5 playoff games last year is OK then? Sample size man . . . of course, anything could happen, but it's highly unlikely that he turns out better than Marner / Strome, and using a 3 game sample size to make that argument is hilariously short sighted.
 
Huge fan of Zacha. He's really being underrated by some, I think he ends up as a low end #1C/high end #2. He has terrific tools, and his game might be better for the NHL than with Sarnia. Box score watchers won't like him, but anyone who watches him knows how valuable he is.
 
WhiskeyYourTheDevils said:
Yea, so 3 points while getting knocked out in 5 playoff games last year is OK then? Sample size man . . . of course, anything could happen, but it's highly unlikely that he turns out better than Marner / Strome, and using a 3 game sample size to make that argument is hilariously short sighted.
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Who the hell thinks or expects him to be better than Strome or Marner?
 
WhiskeyYourTheDevils said:
Based on his comments, one could reasonably imply that BrooklynDevil was making that implication.
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I don't think it's impossible that he does end up the best of the three. Does that happen? Who knows. But not everyone's points translate at the same rate to the NHL, and in his last 10 games he's been every bit their equal on the stat sheet.

What's important to remember is that the argument isn't for who's the best right now. None of them are in the NHL, so if their development ended here it would be a big disappointment. But from what I can see, Zacha is faster than Strome and stronger than Marner.

I'm not saying Zacha is perfect, or that there should be no question marks at all, I think every prospect has them, but most people on here seem opposed to giving credit where credit is due.

Zacha is progressing very well, and I'm very excited to see what he'll be able to do at the NHL level.
 
RunningThroughThe6 said:
Huge fan of Zacha. He's really being underrated by some, I think he ends up as a low end #1C/high end #2. He has terrific tools, and his game might be better for the NHL than with Sarnia. Box score watchers won't like him, but anyone who watches him knows how valuable he is.
Click to expand...

It's also possible that people who watch him don't like him and don't see what the hype is all about, but reality is a challenge for many HFers at the best of times..as are unpopular opinions.

Hope Zacha proves me wrong, I never root against people who have never expressed ill will towards myself, but there are at least a half dozen players taken after him in the 1st last year that have shown much more. Boyd Devereaux had a hard shot, too..

The 'his game might be better in the NHL' argument really makes no sense - how many examples of that can you cite in the past 5-8 draft classes? It's not as if things get easier, nor as if Zacha is playing with complete scrubs.
 
VoidCreature said:
I don't think it's impossible that he does end up the best of the three. Does that happen? Who knows. But not everyone's points translate at the same rate to the NHL, and in his last 10 games he's been every bit their equal on the stat sheet.

What's important to remember is that the argument isn't for who's the best right now. None of them are in the NHL, so if their development ended here it would be a big disappointment. But from what I can see, Zacha is faster than Strome and stronger than Marner.

I'm not saying Zacha is perfect, or that there should be no question marks at all, I think every prospect has them, but most people on here seem opposed to giving credit where credit is due.

Zacha is progressing very well, and I'm very excited to see what he'll be able to do at the NHL level.
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Its 10 games, the other two have been at that pace for almost 2 years (Strome slips a bit if you factor in playoffs) and guys like Marner and Konecny had 16 year old years on par with Zacha's 17 year old year. Now Zacha could end up better than both, but I don't think many view that as the likely scenario. He has a good two way game, maybe he develops like Scheifele or even Getzlaf, but there are valid reason to say guys drafted behind him would now be better picks. I watch a decent amount of OHL, and he's had flashes but I've watched games where I came out thinking Ryan Macinnis is better. Not that I think that will happen.
 
VoidCreature said:
I don't think it's impossible that he does end up the best of the three. Does that happen? Who knows. But not everyone's points translate at the same rate to the NHL, and in his last 10 games he's been every bit their equal on the stat sheet.

What's important to remember is that the argument isn't for who's the best right now. None of them are in the NHL, so if their development ended here it would be a big disappointment. But from what I can see, Zacha is faster than Strome and stronger than Marner.

I'm not saying Zacha is perfect, or that there should be no question marks at all, I think every prospect has them, but most people on here seem opposed to giving credit where credit is due.

Zacha is progressing very well, and I'm very excited to see what he'll be able to do at the NHL level.
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I'm very familiar with prospect progression and projection. I've been following prospects for over a dozen years. I'm not worried as much about his production. I'm worried about his ability to process the game with the puck on his stick and ability to create space for himself. The fact that he is fast and strong is pretty meaningless right now - like you said, its about projection. And speed and strength are both things that can be improved.

In the games I have seen this year, he looks like he will be an NHL player, which already puts him above average for first rounders. His play reminds me a bit of Curtis Lazar at the junior level. I foretold of his struggles to produce at the NHL level and was attacked feverishly by homer Sens fans.

Just because I am a Devils fan doesn't mean I should throw objectivity aside. There is not a lot of time and space in the NHL. And nothing I've seen from Zacha makes me think he will be able adapt his game enough to sufficiently drive an offense at that level.

That said, obviously I hope I'm wrong. He's got great tools. I like his defensive awareness and release. And he can make nifty plays with time and space. But I don't see Getzlaf or Staal. I see Zubrus or Fisher.
 
foxygen said:
It's also possible that people who watch him don't like him and don't see what the hype is all about, but reality is a challenge for many HFers at the best of times..as are unpopular opinions.

Hope Zacha proves me wrong, I never root against people who have never expressed ill will towards myself, but there are at least a half dozen players taken after him in the 1st last year that have shown much more. Boyd Devereaux had a hard shot, too..

The 'his game might be better in the NHL' argument really makes no sense - how many examples of that can you cite in the past 5-8 draft classes? It's not as if things get easier, nor as if Zacha is playing with complete scrubs.
Click to expand...

Instead of citing a draft class, let me show you the top 10 in OHL scoring from the 09-10 season.


Tyler Seguin 106

Taylor Hall 106

Luke Pither 94

Taylor Beck 93

Nazem Kadri 93

Zack Torquato 93

Jeff Skinner 90

Chris Mackinnon 90

Jordan Skellet 88

Mike Cazzola 86




So, of the top ten, four players have become what could be considered top scorers at the NHL level. If every player's points translate at the same rate, why didn't Taylor Beck end up being the better player than Jeff Skinner?

If you'd rather do PPG, it looks like this.




Taylor Hall 1.86

Tyler Seguin 1.68

Nazem Kadri 1.66

Cody Hodgson 1.54

Taylor Beck 1.52

Jeremy Morin 1.43

Adam Henrique 1.43

Chris Mackinnon 1.41

Jeff Skinner 1.41

Luke Pither 1.40




A little more consistent, but the outliers like Beck and Chris Mackinnon are still in there. Seguin was also a full .2 behind Taylor Hall, and yet most people now I'm sure would take Seguin.

You can throw in things like age there, too, but I think it's important to accept that trying to pick out the next NHL stars solely by their PPG in junior has a few holes in it. It's not the slam dunk people here think.
 
WhiskeyYourTheDevils said:
I'm very familiar with prospect progression and projection. I've been following prospects for over a dozen years. I'm not worried as much about his production. I'm worried about his ability to process the game with the puck on his stick and ability to create space for himself. The fact that he is fast and strong is pretty meaningless right now - like you said, its about projection. And speed and strength are both things that can be improved.

In the games I have seen this year, he looks like he will be an NHL player, which already puts him above average for first rounders. His play reminds me a bit of Curtis Lazar at the junior level. I foretold of his struggles to produce at the NHL level and was attacked feverishly by homer Sens fans.

Just because I am a Devils fan doesn't mean I should throw objectivity aside. There is not a lot of time and space in the NHL. And nothing I've seen from Zacha makes me think he will be able adapt his game enough to sufficiently drive an offense at that level.

That said, obviously I hope I'm wrong. He's got great tools. I like his defensive awareness and release. And he can make nifty plays with time and space. But I don't see Getzlaf or Staal. I see Zubrus or Fisher.
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See I don't agree with a lot of what you are saying. Every time I watched Zacha play he moved the puck extremely quickly, especially in camp. What I do agree is that he looks clueless without the puck in the offensive zone. He just doesn't know how to get open or support players. There is a science to creating offense without the puck but I also believe it can be developed with an X's and O's type coach. Hell, Deboer got Clarkson to 30 goals and nearly 50 points. Zacha is bigger, stronger, faster, smarter, better with the puck and just as fearless as Clarkson so with the right coach I don't see any reason why he can't be a consistent 30/30 player in the NHL.

The next question that one needs to ask is if he can stay at center to maximize his worth? If he is to stay at center he will need to base his offense on his size and strength creating room for opposing players. I don't think he see's the ice well enough like a Strome to be a playmaking center in that mold. He will need to protect the puck, cycle and possibly create offense in the second half of his shift.

One thing people seem to forget is that Zacha's shot will play on the PP right away so that will be 20 points per season that will be accrued 5 on 4.
 
WhiskeyYourTheDevils said:
I'm very familiar with prospect progression and projection. I've been following prospects for over a dozen years. I'm not worried as much about his production. I'm worried about his ability to process the game with the puck on his stick and ability to create space for himself. The fact that he is fast and strong is pretty meaningless right now - like you said, its about projection. And speed and strength are both things that can be improved.

In the games I have seen this year, he looks like he will be an NHL player, which already puts him above average for first rounders. His play reminds me a bit of Curtis Lazar at the junior level. I foretold of his struggles to produce at the NHL level and was attacked feverishly by homer Sens fans.

Just because I am a Devils fan doesn't mean I should throw objectivity aside. There is not a lot of time and space in the NHL. And nothing I've seen from Zacha makes me think he will be able adapt his game enough to sufficiently drive an offense at that level.

That said, obviously I hope I'm wrong. He's got great tools. I like his defensive awareness and release. And he can make nifty plays with time and space. But I don't see Getzlaf or Staal. I see Zubrus or Fisher.
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Let me pull this from the Devils board.

thethinglonger said:
Slick, subtle assist for Zacha

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That doesn't look like a play Zubrus would have been capable of. It's one play, yes, but I see him do things like this several times per game. His teammates don't always finish them, which goes back to me saying he's too quick.

The legitimate complaints I have about Zacha are his consistency and wishing he would hold onto the puck more. He has the ability to protect it, but he likes to make the quick pass a little too much. If he can be a little more patient with it, more options will open up.

When it comes to his consistency, he's not always going at 100%. When he's on, he's completely dynamic, but a few times throughout the season, whether because of injury or something else, it looked like he wasn't putting all of himself into every game. I think that hurt his point totals.

That said, both of those issues are coachable, and Zacha has done a lot to make his NHL dream come true. Coming over here from Czech at a young age to better showcase himself shows me how serious he is. I fully expect Hynes will be able to get the most out of him.

But these criticisms of his natural ability are just unfounded. I've watched him a lot, and his natural ability has always been clear to me.
 
VoidCreature said:
Instead of citing a draft class, let me show you the top 10 in OHL scoring from the 09-10 season.


Tyler Seguin 106

Taylor Hall 106

Luke Pither 94

Taylor Beck 93

Nazem Kadri 93

Zack Torquato 93

Jeff Skinner 90

Chris Mackinnon 90

Jordan Skellet 88

Mike Cazzola 86




So, of the top ten, four players have become what could be considered top scorers at the NHL level. If every player's points translate at the same rate, why didn't Taylor Beck end up being the better player than Jeff Skinner?

If you'd rather do PPG, it looks like this.




Taylor Hall 1.86

Tyler Seguin 1.68

Nazem Kadri 1.66

Cody Hodgson 1.54

Taylor Beck 1.52

Jeremy Morin 1.43

Adam Henrique 1.43

Chris Mackinnon 1.41

Jeff Skinner 1.41

Luke Pither 1.40




A little more consistent, but the outliers like Beck and Chris Mackinnon are still in there. Seguin was also a full .2 behind Taylor Hall, and yet most people now I'm sure would take Seguin.

You can throw in things like age there, too, but I think it's important to accept that trying to pick out the next NHL stars solely by their PPG in junior has a few holes in it. It's not the slam dunk people here think.
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Except the top 3 all became top 6 players, one a Franchise player and another an All Star. Yeah, its not perfect, but account for age/season (Kadri's, Hall's 3rd, Seguin and Skinners 2nd), Hodgson played 13 games and had a major injury. And your only factoring in 1 season, Hall, Kadri, and Seguin had better track records than Beck. And in the case of Mackinnon, he was an OA, they should automatically be thrown out in any statistical comparrison. Its not like people are arguing Labanc and Mangiapane will be better.
 
93LEAFS said:
Except the top 3 all became top 6 players, one a Franchise player and another an All Star. Yeah, its not perfect, but account for age/season (Kadri's, Hall's 3rd, Seguin and Skinners 2nd), Hodgson played 13 games and had a major injury. And your only factoring in 1 season, Hall, Kadri, and Seguin had better track records than Beck. And in the case of Mackinnon, he was an OA, they should automatically be thrown out in any statistical comparrison. Its not like people are arguing Labanc and Mangiapane will be better.
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You're right. But what people are arguing is that Zacha has no chance at being a top player in the NHL, and I feel like that is unfair.
 
I get it, Zacha's our top dog, and I've been in here and on the Devils board pumping his tires, but there's no sense in getting so defensive when somebody points out questionable traits that could come back and be a thorn in his side. The most important element is that he's made huge steps in his progression this season. Agree with the posts or not there's no sense in getting so defensive about him. Let's just hope he continues this strong pace of play he's displayed over the past 10+ games.

EDIT: On another note, Zubrus has played almost 1300 career NHL games and while we're hoping for a higher offensive ceiling from Zacha, Zubrus had a very respectable career coming out of a very weak draft class
 
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thethinglonger said:
I get it, Zacha's our top dog, and I've been in here and on the Devils board pumping his tires, but there's no sense in getting so defensive when somebody points out questionable traits that could come back and be a thorn in his side. The most important element is that he's made huge steps in his progression this season. Agree with the posts or not there's no sense in getting so defensive about him. Let's just hope he continues this strong pace of play he's displayed over the past 10+ games
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Isn't debating the pros and cons the point of this board? Or at least this section of it?
 
VoidCreature said:
You're right. But what people are arguing is that Zacha has no chance at being a top player in the NHL, and I feel like that is unfair.
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I don't think anyone has said that outside of the guy who compared him to Jessiman. Personally I don't see it, more of a high end 2nd line center on a contender is closer to his ceiling, but its not unrealistic for him to be a top line player.
 
WhiskeyYourTheDevils said:
Are they though?
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Some people are. Pavel is still 18, at the age of 18 Jamie Benn was 3rd on his team in points. Todd Bertuzzi was 5th on his team in points. Lucic was under a PPG. Getzlaf was a better 18 year old but had a terrible 19 year old year. Big physical players develop at a different rate and often translate more of their offense at the next level.
 
Jason MacIsaac said:
Some people are. Pavel is still 18, at the age of 18 Jamie Benn was 3rd on his team in points. Todd Bertuzzi was 5th on his team in points. Lucic was under a PPG. Getzlaf was a better 18 year old but had a terrible 19 year old year. Big physical players develop at a different rate and often translate more of their offense at the next level.
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You realize you just picked the exceptions right? There are a bunch of Brad Isbister, and countless others.
 
VoidCreature said:
Instead of citing a draft class, let me show you the top 10 in OHL scoring from the 09-10 season.


Tyler Seguin 106

Taylor Hall 106

Luke Pither 94

Taylor Beck 93

Nazem Kadri 93

Zack Torquato 93

Jeff Skinner 90

Chris Mackinnon 90

Jordan Skellet 88

Mike Cazzola 86




So, of the top ten, four players have become what could be considered top scorers at the NHL level. If every player's points translate at the same rate, why didn't Taylor Beck end up being the better player than Jeff Skinner?

If you'd rather do PPG, it looks like this.




Taylor Hall 1.86

Tyler Seguin 1.68

Nazem Kadri 1.66

Cody Hodgson 1.54

Taylor Beck 1.52

Jeremy Morin 1.43

Adam Henrique 1.43

Chris Mackinnon 1.41

Jeff Skinner 1.41

Luke Pither 1.40




A little more consistent, but the outliers like Beck and Chris Mackinnon are still in there. Seguin was also a full .2 behind Taylor Hall, and yet most people now I'm sure would take Seguin.

You can throw in things like age there, too, but I think it's important to accept that trying to pick out the next NHL stars solely by their PPG in junior has a few holes in it. It's not the slam dunk people here think.
Click to expand...

I never cited Zacha's PPG, I've spent enough time both watching junior hockey and scouring these forums to know the PPG argument is moot. I've also watched Sarnia quite a bit this year and have repeatedly come away with the opinion that Zacha went higher than he should have. Only time will tell - I'm not clairvoyant, and he could end up being a stud. But he repeatedly demonstrates tendencies that will get ripped to shreds at the pro level, and his going 6th sure seems sour given the seasons that prospects behind him have had to this point.

For clarity's sake, my point is that, contrary to what has been repeatedly stated in this thread, in recent years few high 1st round picks end up having a game that 'translates better to the pros.' Again, I'd love to see an example of a player picked within the top 10-20 who had a game that 'translated better' to the NHL level. It just defies logic...junior hockey is far less rigorous than pro hockey, and many top players even struggle to adapt to the AHL level, let alone the intensity and speed that the NHL level presents.

I'm not sure where Taylor Beck entered the discussion..and I'll leave it at that.

edit: I lied, and to clarify further, I also think Zacha has fantastic tools. The question is whether he can improve on his deficiencies enough to become a top 6 NHLer..
 
93LEAFS said:
You realize you just picked the exceptions right? There are a bunch of Brad Isbister, and countless others.
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Of course I did, what I am saying is that it is pretty tough to project big power forwards until you see how they respond to pro hockey. out of all those players Zacha definitely had the best shot moving forward.
 
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