C/LW Pavel Zacha - Sarnia Sting, OHL (2015, 6th, NJD)

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Your opinion or mine me nothing in the big picture. Give these players a couple years in the NHL, than we'll see better.

Got it. You expect Zacha to be better than Marner and Strome. We can (and will) wait a few years. But we will also discuss their strengths and weaknesses and how they might project, because it's what these boards are for.

Strome and Marner aren't McDavid.

Relevant comment. Truly insightful. You should be a scout.

 

[VoidCreature]

I never cited Zacha's PPG, I've spent enough time both watching junior hockey and scouring these forums to know the PPG argument is moot. I've also watched Sarnia quite a bit this year and have repeatedly come away with the opinion that Zacha went higher than he should have. Only time will tell - I'm not clairvoyant, and he could end up being a stud. But he repeatedly demonstrates tendencies that will get ripped to shreds at the pro level, and his going 6th sure seems sour given the seasons that prospects behind him have had to this point.

For clarity's sake, my point is that, contrary to what has been repeatedly stated in this thread, in recent years few high 1st round picks end up having a game that 'translates better to the pros.' Again, I'd love to see an example of a player picked within the top 10-20 who had a game that 'translated better' to the NHL level. It just defies logic...junior hockey is far less rigorous than pro hockey, and many top players even struggle to adapt to the AHL level, let alone the intensity and speed that the NHL level presents.

I'm not sure where Taylor Beck entered the discussion..and I'll leave it at that.

edit: I lied, and to clarify further, I also think Zacha has fantastic tools. The question is whether he can improve on his deficiencies enough to become a top 6 NHLer..

I think you're misunderstanding what we mean by this. No one is claiming Zacha will put up more points in the NHL than he does in the OHL. That would be insane. He'd be Crosby level if that were true.

To illustrate, let's say player A scores 100 points in junior, then goes on to be a 50 point player in the NHL. That would be a conversion rate of 50%. Prospect B gets 80 in junior, and then also goes on to be a 50 point player, thus a conversion rate of 65%.

That's what people are arguing, that Zacha's rate of translation from junior to NHL points will be higher than other prospects. Looking at Adam Henrique vs. Taylor Beck shows that this does happen.

Whether you agree with that is a different story.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I think you're misunderstanding what we mean by this. No one is claiming Zacha will put up more points in the NHL than he does in the OHL. That would be insane. He'd be Crosby level if that were true.

To illustrate, let's say player A scores 100 points in junior, then goes on to be a 50 point player in the NHL. That would be a conversion rate of 50%. Prospect B gets 80 in junior, and then also goes on to be a 50 point player, thus a conversion rate of 65%.

That's what people are arguing, that Zacha's rate of translation from junior to NHL points will be higher than other prospects. Looking at Adam Henrique vs. Taylor Beck shows that this does happen.

Whether you agree with that is a different story.

You didnt address his question - specifically regarding top 10-20 picks. Of course it happens, but how often with top prospects?

 

[covfefe]

I'm struggling to understand how I am misunderstanding your point when I posed the question in the first place that you have now dodged twice.

Let's not forget that Adam Henrique went in the 3rd round, not 6th overall. Zacha was and remains a reach pick - only time will tell what he becomes.

Again, I don't purport to know how he progresses at the NHL level. I'd like to see him show more awareness offensively and in the transition game; starting with improving his play in tight quarters. He's also prone to taking foolish penalties but any NHL coach worth his mettle can sort an issue like that out.

Refer to the Sting thread if you need more info on the latter point.

I'll leave it at that - hope the kid pans out and I wish him nothing but success, but as a fan of a team that will be looking at a similar draft position to the Devils' from last season, I hope we go with a player who shows more tangible upside in his D+1 year, not someone who routinely leaves you wanting more and leaving the arena with "I think his game will translate well in the Pros." The Getzlaf's of the NHL are a rarity, not the rule.

 

[Blender]

I don't think anyone has said that outside of the guy who compared him to Jessiman. Personally I don't see it, more of a high end 2nd line center on a contender is closer to his ceiling, but its not unrealistic for him to be a top line player.

Historically, a high end second liner for a 6th overall pick would be a great selection, so I don't see that as being a knock. Top 10/15 picks aren't the slam dunk a lot of people make it out to be.

 

[93LEAFS]

I think you're misunderstanding what we mean by this. No one is claiming Zacha will put up more points in the NHL than he does in the OHL. That would be insane. He'd be Crosby level if that were true.

To illustrate, let's say player A scores 100 points in junior, then goes on to be a 50 point player in the NHL. That would be a conversion rate of 50%. Prospect B gets 80 in junior, and then also goes on to be a 50 point player, thus a conversion rate of 65%.

That's what people are arguing, that Zacha's rate of translation from junior to NHL points will be higher than other prospects. Looking at Adam Henrique vs. Taylor Beck shows that this does happen.

Whether you agree with that is a different story.

Those guys are 3rd rounders, and your using it against guys like Strome and Marner. Flat out the only player in the last 15 years with a statistical track record on those two guys that could be consider a bust is Gagner, and he was on that tire fire in Edmonton in its infancy.

 

[Baemon Severson*]

I'm hoping for a slightly better goal scoring Chris Kreider. So a 45-55 pt player

 

[VoidCreature]

I'm struggling to understand how I am misunderstanding your point when I posed the question in the first place that you have now dodged twice.

Let's not forget that Adam Henrique went in the 3rd round, not 6th overall. Zacha was and remains a reach pick - only time will tell what he becomes.

Again, I don't purport to know how he progresses at the NHL level. I'd like to see him show more awareness offensively and in the transition game; starting with improving his play in tight quarters. He's also prone to taking foolish penalties but any NHL coach worth his mettle can sort an issue like that out.

Refer to the Sting thread if you need more info on the latter point.

I'll leave it at that - hope the kid pans out and I wish him nothing but success, but as a fan of a team that will be looking at a similar draft position to the Devils' from last season, I hope we go with a player who shows more tangible upside in his D+1 year, not someone who routinely leaves you wanting more and leaving the arena with "I think his game will translate well in the Pros." The Getzlaf's of the NHL are a rarity, not the rule.

What part of your argument am I dodging? We disagree on how good he is at the details of the game, clearly. I feel like his lacking production comes from consistency issues and injuries. I don't know how much more clearly I can state that.

His details are solid, and his transition game is strong, as partly evidenced by that passing play I linked. Does he maybe pass the puck off too quickly sometimes? Sure. But his breakouts in his own zone are very good, and whenever he touches the puck he makes an intelligent move with it.

And I'm not against Strome or Marner. In fact Marner would have been my choice if he'd still been on the board. But I think there are enough extenuating circumstances in Zacha's case for him to be given the benefit of the doubt. Certainly for a longer period of time than his draft +1 season, and especially at the beginning of what looks to be a very solid playoff performance.

And as to him being a reach, he really wasn't. He was a consensus top 10 pick before the draft. In fact, Connor would have been more of a reach than him. He looks good now, yes, but at the time he wasn't projected to go in the top 10.

 

[93LEAFS]

What part of your argument am I dodging? We disagree on how good he is at the details of the game, clearly. I feel like his lacking production comes from consistency issues and injuries. I don't know how much more clearly I can state that.

His details are solid, and his transition game is strong, as partly evidenced by that passing play I linked. Does he maybe pass the puck off too quickly sometimes? Sure. But his breakouts in his own zone are very good, and whenever he touches the puck he makes an intelligent move with it.

And I'm not against Strome or Marner. In fact Marner would have been my choice if he'd still been on the board. But I think there are enough extenuating circumstances in Zacha's case for him to be given the benefit of the doubt. Certainly for a longer period of time than his draft +1 season, and especially at the beginning of what looks to be a very solid playoff performance.

And as to him being a reach, he really wasn't. He was a consensus top 10 pick before the draft. In fact, Connor would have been more of a reach than him. He looks good now, yes, but at the time he wasn't projected to go in the top 10.

Varied, but generally Zacha was ahead. Button most notably was very high on Connor and very low on Zacha. While he can say dumb things, he was at one point was a GM and has a brother who is a well respected scout. Here a collection of lists

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2015-draft/prospect-rankings/

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

What part of your argument am I dodging? We disagree on how good he is at the details of the game, clearly. I feel like his lacking production comes from consistency issues and injuries. I don't know how much more clearly I can state that.

His details are solid, and his transition game is strong, as partly evidenced by that passing play I linked. Does he maybe pass the puck off too quickly sometimes? Sure. But his breakouts in his own zone are very good, and whenever he touches the puck he makes an intelligent move with it.

And I'm not against Strome or Marner. In fact Marner would have been my choice if he'd still been on the board. But I think there are enough extenuating circumstances in Zacha's case for him to be given the benefit of the doubt. Certainly for a longer period of time than his draft +1 season, and especially at the beginning of what looks to be a very solid playoff performance.

And as to him being a reach, he really wasn't. He was a consensus top 10 pick before the draft. In fact, Connor would have been more of a reach than him. He looks good now, yes, but at the time he wasn't projected to go in the top 10.

The part where you don't answer the question. Go ahead and read it again. Shouldn't be that hard to pick up on what you are missing.

 

[Baemon Severson*]

Those guys are 3rd rounders, and your using it against guys like Strome and Marner. Flat out the only player in the last 15 years with a statistical track record on those two guys that could be consider a bust is Gagner, and he was on that tire fire in Edmonton in its infancy.

James Sheppard, Zach Hamill crushed it in his draft year with 93 pts, Josh Bailey, Yakupov, Grigorenko

 

[93LEAFS]

James Sheppard, Zach Hamill crushed it in his draft year with 93 pts, Josh Bailey, Yakupov, Grigorenko

Only two from the OHL are Bailey and Yakupov. And both are significantly lower than Strome and Marner's ppg in their 17 and 18 year old seasons. And all guys outside of the Q guys are late birth days. Yak may be the best you can pull but his combined ppg between his 17 and 18 year old season is 1.59, with 5 points in 6 games in his only playoff appearance, Marner's combined one is 2.02ppg, and Strome's is 1.94. With Marner having 24 pts in 11 playoff games, Strome has 28 in 23. So, I don't think any of the guys mentioned are close to being comparables. I'll admit Gagner belongs in the discussion, but the guys you used is reaching.

 

[covfefe]

Let me hash this out for you...

The 'his game might be better in the NHL' argument really makes no sense - how many examples of that can you cite in the past 5-8 draft classes?

Instead of citing a draft class, let me show you the top 10 in OHL scoring from the 09-10 season....

(redacted)

You can throw in things like age there, too, but I think it's important to accept that trying to pick out the next NHL stars solely by their PPG in junior has a few holes in it. It's not the slam dunk people here think.

For clarity's sake, my point is that, contrary to what has been repeatedly stated in this thread, in recent years few high 1st round picks end up having a game that 'translates better to the pros.' Again, I'd love to see an example of a player picked within the top 10-20 who had a game that 'translated better' to the NHL level.

What part of your argument am I dodging? We disagree on how good he is at the details of the game, clearly. I feel like his lacking production comes from consistency issues and injuries....

(redacted)

His details are solid, and his transition game is strong, as partly evidenced by that passing play I linked. Does he maybe pass the puck off too quickly sometimes? Sure. But his breakouts in his own zone are very good, and whenever he touches the puck he makes an intelligent move with it.

Note the above two posts I have cited and edited...then let me know if you are unsure of what part of my argument you have been dodging. I'm not sure if I can be any more clear, nor explicit, re: the exact question I have posed.

I feel I've been patient, but you've now begun to spin the discussion to better fit your agenda: citing PPG (I never mentioned PPG as a legitimate basis for evaluating any prospect); claiming that we disagree on how good he is at the details of the game (I never mentioned him lacking in the 'details of the game' [whatever that means..]); you've mentioned that his transition game is 'strong' as evidenced by a single successful play, when in reality hockey games consist of hundreds of similar plays...

I can go on, and like I've mentioned, I've watched plenty of Sting games this year, not only online but also in person. I'm not basing this opinion based off of heresy and boxscores, and not out of some hate toward the Devils (who are likely in the top 3 teams I am most indifferent to in the league).

.

The part where you don't answer the question. Go ahead and read it again. Shouldn't be that hard to pick up on what you are missing.

Thanks.

Please just take some time to read the question and see if you can answer it in a forward and reasoned manner.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

And just like that, Marner has more points than Zacha.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

Varied, but generally Zacha was ahead. Button most notably was very high on Connor and very low on Zacha. While he can say dumb things, he was at one point was a GM and has a brother who is a well respected scout. Here a collection of lists

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2015-draft/prospect-rankings/

2012
https://www.nhl.com/news/craig-buttons-top-2012-draft-prospects/c-5961
2013
http://www2.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=98084
2014
http://www2.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=49649

The guy is all over the map with no accuracy or consistancy. There is a reason he isn't with an NHL team in some capacity anymore.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

And just like that, Marner has more points than Zacha.

Who cares, that is his ticket to the NHL plus he will only be a winger. Zacha can still be a center and can get there other ways.

 

[93LEAFS]

2012
https://www.nhl.com/news/craig-buttons-top-2012-draft-prospects/c-5961
2013
http://www2.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=98084
2014
http://www2.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=49649

The guy is all over the map with no accuracy or consistancy. There is a reason he isn't with an NHL team in some capacity anymore.

Its not much worse than the McKenzie consensus rankings. He actually scouts them, I disagree with him a decent amount (Dvorak over Marner, Vesey over Rantanen) but its better than reading bob Mckenzie's list slightly edited list by some blog for the 100th time.

 

[VoidCreature]

Let me hash this out for you...










Note the above two posts I have cited and edited...then let me know if you are unsure of what part of my argument you have been dodging. I'm not sure if I can be any more clear, nor explicit, re: the exact question I have posed.

I feel I've been patient, but you've now begun to spin the discussion to better fit your agenda: citing PPG (I never mentioned PPG as a legitimate basis for evaluating any prospect); claiming that we disagree on how good he is at the details of the game (I never mentioned him lacking in the 'details of the game' [whatever that means..]); you've mentioned that his transition game is 'strong' as evidenced by a single successful play, when in reality hockey games consist of hundreds of similar plays...

I can go on, and like I've mentioned, I've watched plenty of Sting games this year, not only online but also in person. I'm not basing this opinion based off of heresy and boxscores, and not out of some hate toward the Devils (who are likely in the top 3 teams I am most indifferent to in the league).

.


Thanks.

Please just take some time to read the question and see if you can answer it in a forward and reasoned manner.

And I already addressed that with that bit about Henrique and Beck. Shall I use another example? I'll pick two players. Rob Schremp had 145 points in 57 games in his last season in junior. Bobby Ryan that same season had 95 in 59. Do I need to tell you which one was the better NHL player?

I'm not claiming Zacha will have an easier go of it in the NHL than in junior. No one does. What I am arguing is that his game will translate at a higher rate than others with comparable numbers. And I don't mean just Strome and Marner. I like both prospects, I'm not trying to say that they won't be good NHL players.

Maybe you'll come back and say that's just one comparison. That's fair. But my belief is that Zacha is the exception, that he has more in common with Ryan Getzlaf or Rick Nash than another big power forward who busted. We disagree on that, and that's fine.

And I'm using that "single successful play" to back up my overall impressions of what Zacha is capable of based on my own observations. As an example.

Furthermore, the PPG argument wasn't aimed at you. It's something I've seen used on these boards and was responding to.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

And I already addressed that with that bit about Henrique and Beck. Shall I use another example? I'll pick two players. Rob Schremp had 145 points in 57 games in his last season in junior. Bobby Ryan that same season had 95 in 59. Do I need to tell you which one was the better NHL player?

I'm not claiming Zacha will have an easier go of it in the NHL than in junior. No one does. What I am arguing is that his game will translate at a higher rate than others with comparable numbers. And I don't mean just Strome and Marner. I like both prospects, I'm not trying to say that they won't be good NHL players.

Maybe you'll come back and say that's just one comparison. That's fair. But my belief is that Zacha is the exception, that he has more in common with Ryan Getzlaf or Rick Nash than another big power forward who busted. We disagree on that, and that's fine.

And I'm using that "single successful play" to back up my overall impressions of what Zacha is capable of based on my own observations. As an example.

Furthermore, the PPG argument wasn't aimed at you. It's something I've seen used on these boards and was responding to.

That's not a valid comparison because they were different ages. Thought that would be obvious, but that matters.

 

[VoidCreature]

That's not a valid comparison because they were different ages. Thought that would be obvious, but that matters.

Bobby Ryan's penultimate season in junior he scored 102 in 63, almost a full point per game less than Mr. Schremp. The comparison is better than you'd like to admit.

Not every high scoring junior player becomes an NHL Star. Not every NHL star was at the top of the scoring charts in junior.

Both of these things are true.

 

[Marshal Rochambeau]

Zacha is a beast of a hockey player. He's just an animal on the ice.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Bobby Ryan's penultimate season in junior he scored 102 in 63, almost a full point per game less than Mr. Schremp. The comparison is better than you'd like to admit.

Not every high scoring junior player becomes an NHL Star. Not every NHL star was at the top of the scoring charts in junior.

Both of these things are true.

Bold statement there

But again, you have to see how rare it is for guys who don't produce in junior to become consistent offensive threats in the NHL. Even if Zacha's conversion rate is double the OHL average, he would still only end up a 45-50 point player. But that kind of conversion for a top prospect doesn't happen that often, as you are finding out.

Obviously stats are only part of the equation for a player like Zacha, who can bring so much more. But if he were a one dimensional scorer, I'd be very concerned about his ability to become an NHL player.

 

[Mad Brills*]

Bold statement there

But again, you have to see how rare it is for guys who don't produce in junior to become consistent offensive threats in the NHL. Even if Zacha's conversion rate is double the OHL average, he would still only end up a 45-50 point player. But that kind of conversion for a top prospect doesn't happen that often, as you are finding out.

Obviously stats are only part of the equation for a player like Zacha, who can bring so much more. But if he were a one dimensional scorer, I'd be very concerned about his ability to become an NHL player.

The schremp example is used a ton.

 

[Grind]

Bold statement there

But again, you have to see how rare it is for guys who don't produce in junior to become consistent offensive threats in the NHL. Even if Zacha's conversion rate is double the OHL average, he would still only end up a 45-50 point player. But that kind of conversion for a top prospect doesn't happen that often, as you are finding out.

Obviously stats are only part of the equation for a player like Zacha, who can bring so much more. But if he were a one dimensional scorer, I'd be very concerned about his ability to become an NHL player.

To compound this issue, historically scouts haven't been very good at accurately identifying what those other dimensions are in junior that will lead to success in the same dimensions in the NHL.

Most two-way NHL players had very significant offensive production in junior. Furthermore it is often the players tagged as "boom or bust" one dimensional scorers that end up becoming the best "value" players later in the draft (these players tend to excel at possession metrics in bottom six roles far more frequently then the projected "safe" guys do).

The concern becomes [the ability to "play good defensive hockey" in junior] /= [the ability to "play good defensive hockey" in the NHL]

One theory i hold (and the whole reason for starting the project i have) is that the minimum "thresholds" for performance/attributes to become an NHL player, even a bottom 6 grinder/plug, are generally above the same thresholds to be a strong offensive contributer in junior.

So to sort of arbitrarily put numbers on it EA style:

Essentially, in order to be an effective NHL player of any caliber, a player needs to have a skating speed of 80. If your at a 75, you simply will never keep up to the play.

But in junior, having a skating speed/rank of 80 is fast enough to generate points and opportunities off that speed alone.

Unfortunately i don't know how to test this theory beyond simply looking at junior scoring to NHL success, which has already shown to be a very strong predictor (relative to NHL scouting departments and third party scouting lists)

 

[puckfan13]

Blows my mind people are discussing this seriously... like PPG is the Da Vinci code of prospects.. You have to look at what exactly the kind of player you are dealing with... Okposo and Wheeler never cracked a PPG in college, Getzlaf, Ladd, Horton all did not blow the doors off junior. James Neal, Wayne Simmonds too. His post-draft year production is similar to Scheifele's too. It is pretty clear when you look at the kind of players all these guys are, that if you have size at your advantage and a certain skillset you do not need as many points to translate as a smaller player... You have to watch and evaluate the skillset of the player at the end of the day and take into account many factors..