C Leo Carlsson (2023, 2nd, ANA)

[Eye of Ra]

Carlsson is 10x the skater that Draisaitl was, way smoother.

On the other hand ,Carlsson is super lazy. He dont work hard on the ice

 

[95snipes]

This tournament has been my first real look at Carlsson. I am much more familiar with the rest of the projected top 10 and Carlsson was the one player I really wanted to get eyes on.

I was fairly underwhelmed with his early tournament play. Perhaps the illness could explain that? I thought he looked good against both Finland and the Czech.

That said, I don't see this elite player that others seem to. I see a complimentary first liner. Seems above average at everything, but nothing about his game really stands out to me outside of maybeee his hands. He's not an elite skater. He doesn't have an elite release. He's composed with the puck, but I don't think he's enough of an offensive creator to be a 60 assist type. So what are you left with? He's got good size, good skills, no glaring weakness, but I personally see a 70-80ish point complimentary winger. That's a great player to have but if he's going 3rd, I think he's much closer to the pack than he is to Bedard/Michkov. I'm not sure if I would even prefer Carlsson to Sale. I think it's close enough that it could depend on the fit of what you need to mesh with your current core.

Just offering a different take since most people in this thread seem to love him.

 

[Goon42]

This tournament has been my first real look at Carlsson. I am much more familiar with the rest of the projected top 10 and Carlsson was the one player I really wanted to get eyes on.

I was fairly underwhelmed with his early tournament play. Perhaps the illness could explain that? I thought he looked good against both Finland and the Czech.

That said, I don't see this elite player that others seem to. I see a complimentary first liner. Seems above average at everything, but nothing about his game really stands out to me outside of maybeee his hands. He's not an elite skater. He doesn't have an elite release. He's composed with the puck, but I don't think he's enough of an offensive creator to be a 60 assist type. So what are you left with? He's got good size, good skills, no glaring weakness, but I personally see a 70-80ish point complimentary winger. That's a great player to have but if he's going 3rd, I think he's much closer to the pack than he is to Bedard/Michkov. I'm not sure if I would even prefer Carlsson to Sale. I think it's close enough that it could depend on the fit of what you need to mesh with your current core.

Just offering a different take since most people in this thread seem to love him.

in what world is a projected 80 point player in the nhl a "complimentary" player lol

 

[95snipes]

in what world is a projected 80 point player in the nhl a "complimentary" player lol

My words were complimentary first liner meaning not a franchise player or someone who's driving the team's offense. 50 players scored 70 points last year and many more paced for it. As long as scoring stays the way it is, there will be plenty of 70 point forwards who are first liners, but are not franchise players.

At 2nd or 3rd overall, which is were other posters have him, you are drafting him to be a franchise player. I think he's in the mix for 3rd overall, but I don't see this huge gap others do between Carlsson and other names out there.

 

[Fantomas]

Cold water being poured over every edgy scout prematurely rating flavors of the week over Michkov.

 

[bottomofthefoodchain]

Cold water being poured over every edgy scout prematurely rating flavors of the week over Michkov.

Michkov is hardly setting the KHL on fire though

 

[Fantomas]

Michkov is hardly setting the KHL on fire though

Were you saying this about Malkin in 2004?

 

[BenchBrawl]

delete

 

[Goon42]

My words were complimentary first liner meaning not a franchise player or someone who's driving the team's offense. 50 players scored 70 points last year and many more paced for it. As long as scoring stays the way it is, there will be plenty of 70 point forwards who are first liners, but are not franchise players.

At 2nd or 3rd overall, which is were other posters have him, you are drafting him to be a franchise player. I think he's in the mix for 3rd overall, but I don't see this huge gap others do between Carlsson and other names out there.

The last time a top 10 pick scored over 70 points was Cale Makar. I guess what i'm trying to say is if you are picking 2nd overall and walk away with a 70-80 point 6'3" 200lb player - that's an absolute slam dunk and definitely a main piece you can build around.

 

[OskarOskarius]

My words were complimentary first liner meaning not a franchise player or someone who's driving the team's offense. 50 players scored 70 points last year and many more paced for it. As long as scoring stays the way it is, there will be plenty of 70 point forwards who are first liners, but are not franchise players.

At 2nd or 3rd overall, which is were other posters have him, you are drafting him to be a franchise player. I think he's in the mix for 3rd overall, but I don't see this huge gap others do between Carlsson and other names out there.

Have you ever bothered watching how it went for the previous top picks? Kotkaniemi was drafted #3 in 2018. He’s currently trending at 28 points. Barret Hayton at #5 at 21p. Zadina at #6 0p. Adam Boquist #8 7p. Kravtzov #9 14p. Bouchard #10 29p. Out of the top 10 picks only 4 lived up to their expectations: Dahlin, Svechnikov, Tkachuk and Q Hughes. If you draft Leo Carlsson and he scores >70 p four years from now you have done a good draft.

 

[OskarOskarius]

Regarding Leo Carlsson i’m not worried about his poor performance this year. The whole team was lackluster. If he performs well in SHL that’s a better factor for future success than a cup. He’s currently trending at 27p. That’s very good for a 17/18 year old.

 

[Fyodorov]

Have you ever bothered watching how it went for the previous top picks? Kotkaniemi was drafted #3 in 2018. He’s currently trending at 28 points. Barret Hayton at #5 at 21p. Zadina at #6 0p. Adam Boquist #8 7p. Kravtzov #9 14p. Bouchard #10 29p. Out of the top 10 picks only 4 lived up to their expectations: Dahlin, Svechnikov, Tkachuk and Q Hughes. If you draft Leo Carlsson and he scores >70 p four years from now you have done a good draft.

Very true. I think people are just losing sight of this in context of the fact that Bedard will score 120+ points as a rookie.

 

[95snipes]

The last time a top 10 pick scored over 70 points was Cale Makar. I guess what i'm trying to say is if you are picking 2nd overall and walk away with a 70-80 point 6'3" 200lb player - that's an absolute slam dunk and definitely a main piece you can build around.

I get that, but when Michkov is shattering every Russian precedent ever set, I think it would be a (potentially massive) mistake to take Carlsson over him, even if you have to wait a few years for Michkov. At 3rd I do think he's fairly safe and your point is taken. This is not a stylistic comparison, but I see him more like someone like Elias Lindholm than a franchise player.

I guess for me the disconnect is that I was hearing about this top 4 and then everyone else. I've had my reservations with Fantilli, but it's easy to see why people like him. Perhaps my expectations were too high on Carlsson, but I thought he was fairly underwhelming and closer to the guys going in the 3-7 range than someone who should go 2nd overall. If it turns out he had the flu and was playing sick then I almost need to throw this evaluation out the window.

Have you ever bothered watching how it went for the previous top picks? Kotkaniemi was drafted #3 in 2018. He’s currently trending at 28 points. Barret Hayton at #5 at 21p. Zadina at #6 0p. Adam Boquist #8 7p. Kravtzov #9 14p. Bouchard #10 29p. Out of the top 10 picks only 4 lived up to their expectations: Dahlin, Svechnikov, Tkachuk and Q Hughes. If you draft Leo Carlsson and he scores >70 p four years from now you have done a good draft.

So what? 2018 was a horrible draft. If I were deciding between Carlsson and Hayton, it would be an easy choice. But I'm not. Yager, Sale, Fantilli and potentially even guys like Dvorsky and Benson are all guys who can 70+ point guys in the NHL too. I'm not saying he's a bad choice at 3, I just think Sale/Yager/Carlsson/Fantilli/Dvorsky all belong in a similar tier.

Regarding Leo Carlsson i’m not worried about his poor performance this year. The whole team was lackluster. If he performs well in SHL that’s a better factor for future success than a cup. He’s currently trending at 27p. That’s very good for a 17/18 year old.

This I agree with, but I do not watch SHL so world juniors is all I have and offering my take based on that.

I'm definitely biased to NA prospects as I do watch CHL/NCAA.

 

[theslatcher]

Leo has (one of) the best single-game performance of the tournament, against Finland in the QFs.

Has been ill, and his comments regarding the Canada game was that he didn't feel good at all. Heading into the semis he made comments that he wasn't feeling at 100% yet, so, you know. Still was a momster at 3v3 and several shifts in that game. Along with a good defensive effort.

With a little better luck he has a lot more apples from this tournament.

 

[Pavels Dog]

This tournament has been my first real look at Carlsson. I am much more familiar with the rest of the projected top 10 and Carlsson was the one player I really wanted to get eyes on.

I was fairly underwhelmed with his early tournament play. Perhaps the illness could explain that? I thought he looked good against both Finland and the Czech.

That said, I don't see this elite player that others seem to. I see a complimentary first liner. Seems above average at everything, but nothing about his game really stands out to me outside of maybeee his hands. He's not an elite skater. He doesn't have an elite release. He's composed with the puck, but I don't think he's enough of an offensive creator to be a 60 assist type. So what are you left with? He's got good size, good skills, no glaring weakness, but I personally see a 70-80ish point complimentary winger. That's a great player to have but if he's going 3rd, I think he's much closer to the pack than he is to Bedard/Michkov. I'm not sure if I would even prefer Carlsson to Sale. I think it's close enough that it could depend on the fit of what you need to mesh with your current core.

Just offering a different take since most people in this thread seem to love him.

Big, skilled center. These guys don't always shine the most against juniors, where those 5'10 types will skate around doing things that don't work in pro leagues.

I would take Carlsson over anyone not named Bedard in the draft.

 

[Vasilevskiy]

I like him a lot. I think I would take him over Fantilli tbh

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I like him a lot. I think I would take him over Fantilli tbh

Same. He projects as a franchise 1C IMO. Strong, smooth, elite hands and vision, underrated release, smart all around player.

I'd be surprised if he wasn't a top 10-15 NHL center in his prime. I'd take him over every center prospect since 2016 aside from Matthews, Hughes, Stutzle, and Bedard.

 

[Bounces R Way]

I've been very impressed with how mature his game is for his age. Makes high percentage plays, very responsible defensively, and uses his frame to protect the puck really well already. Not afraid to drive the net either but also uses his linemates very effectively. Think he has the most refined attention to detail game out of the 2023 draftees I've watched.

I don't think he's going to be the type to immediately come in and set the league on fire but Swedish centers tend to age extremely well. Has Franchise C written all over him.

 

[ddlennon]

swedish lundell

 

[theslatcher]

Ends his WJC at 6-3-3-6, or, 3-3-1-4 in the playoffs.

 

[VictorLustig]

I expected more. Good thing I’ve seen him do more elsewhere.

 

[theslatcher]

 

[RickyLafleur]

Have you ever bothered watching how it went for the previous top picks? Kotkaniemi was drafted #3 in 2018. He’s currently trending at 28 points. Barret Hayton at #5 at 21p. Zadina at #6 0p. Adam Boquist #8 7p. Kravtzov #9 14p. Bouchard #10 29p. Out of the top 10 picks only 4 lived up to their expectations: Dahlin, Svechnikov, Tkachuk and Q Hughes. If you draft Leo Carlsson and he scores >70 p four years from now you have done a good draft.

I'd add that Stutzle has lived up to expectations as well.

 

[OiledUp]

Think his illness effected performance. Felt like he lacked some jump in his step.

 

[GermanSpitfire]

Think his illness effected performance. Felt like he lacked some jump in his step.

That’s just his skating