C Leo Carlsson (2023, 2nd, ANA)

[Gliff]

He played 85 games last season (excluding exhibition) so this strikes me as strange…being one year older now as well. I guess the Ducks have seen him having some issues with post-game recovery?

He played 85 games from Mid August to mid May. As opposed to 82 games from Mid October to Mid April. 3 more games in almost 3 more months. Not to mention the increase in ice time.

He played on average 14:40 a game 9 games a month. Thats 132 minutes a month last year. He will be playing about 20 minutes a game on the Ducks and they play about 14 games a month. That means his monthly ice time will go from 132 to 280 minutes.

Even if they sat him for 1/3 of the NHL games he would still see about a 40% increase in monthly ice time compared to last year.

 

[FiveTacos]

I guarantee you there are other teams watching closely. If it works well, and he gets better as the year goes on instead of hitting a wall, you'll see other teams do this down the road with certain other players.

It's certainly unconventional, but so were a lot of things in sports that are now considered routine. I mean, I never heard of pitch counts growing up, at any level. If some MLB team had put a pitch limit on their young phenom back then everyone would have thought they were weirdos. And I don't even want to think about how many pitches I saw some kids throw, it was probably at least double what they allow nowadays for little Leaguers.

 

[GeeoffBrown]

Obviously many posters on here are not familiar with the phrase "too much of a good thing."

Leo Carlsson is like the McRib. If he was available every day, it wouldn't be special anymore.

true the oilers play the McDavid 30 minutes a game and I'm already sick of him

 

[Gliff]

I guarantee you there are other teams watching closely. If it works well, and he gets better as the year goes on instead of hitting a wall, you'll see other teams do this down the road with certain other players.

It's certainly unconventional, but so were a lot of things in sports that are now considered routine. I mean, I never heard of pitch counts growing up, at any level. If some MLB team had put a pitch limit on their young phenom back then everyone would have thought they were weirdos. And I don't even want to think about how many pitches I saw some kids throw, it was probably at least double what they allow nowadays for little Leaguers.

Exactly. If this was baseball noone would bat an eye only because it is established to be a good strategy.

 

[DuckDuckGetz]

One of the issues I have with the strategy is that, like a lot of player development, there's no way to "prove" something worked.

This might help him become a fantastic player but playing 82 games this season may have also sent him on that path.

I'm just going to assume that he's happy with it and that's all that really matters. Although just ONCE I would like our GM to ask me if I'm happy.

 

[Kalv]

I’m sure they do know better but it just seems really odd given how other top rookies play entire seasons and do just fine with the workload.

Like Slaf and Laferriere?

 

[Gliff]

Like Slaf and Laferriere?

And kakko, Byfield, Dach, Kotkaniemi, etc. The list goes on and we will never know if they struggled because they were rushed, or because they suck, or because that was just the development path they have.

The Ducks are playing it safe. I don't think a player has ever had their development hampered by playing a college or SHL workload against NHL competition. If they sent him to the SHL no-one would bat an eye. Now he is playing against better competition but with a reduced schedule.

 

[Crazy8oooo]

Like Slaf and Laferriere?

You thought you were being clever, without realizing how bad your sarcasm actually was by mentioning Slaf. He only played 39 games so do you care to explain the relevance? You’re also cherry picking 2 players who haven’t lived up to their draft position…2. And you have no proof of why they haven’t up to this point. There’s no way to prove whether they’d have been better off being coddled or not.

 

[Leonardo87]

32 Thoughts: NHL teams vote to decentralize the draft

In this week's collection of thoughts Elliotte Friedman writes about the league's vote to decentralize the draft and what comes next, plus other notes around the league.

www.sportsnet.ca

 

[Crazy8oooo]

And kakko, Byfield, Dach, Kotkaniemi, etc. The list goes on and we will never know if they struggled because they were rushed, or because they suck, or because that was just the development path they have.

The Ducks are playing it safe. I don't think a player has ever had their development hampered by playing a college or SHL workload against NHL competition. If they sent him to the SHL no-one would bat an eye. Now he is playing against better competition but with a reduced schedule.

So the list can’t be used to prove or disprove this approach as Kalv attempted to do.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

And kakko, Byfield, Dach, Kotkaniemi, etc. The list goes on and we will never know if they struggled because they were rushed, or because they suck, or because that was just the development path they have.

The Ducks are playing it safe. I don't think a player has ever had their development hampered by playing a college or SHL workload against NHL competition. If they sent him to the SHL no-one would bat an eye. Now he is playing against better competition but with a reduced schedule.

At the sametime it also did work for many other 18 years old like Hughes, Matthews, Stutzle, Dahlin, Svechnikov, Hischier, Eichel, McDavid, Tkachuk, Ekblad, MacKinnon. They all had their struggle to adapt but it helped them getting better by playing and learn.

They all adapted well eventually and they are now some of the best players in the league.

 

[ScarTroy]

So the list can’t be used to prove or disprove this approach as Kalv attempted to do.

Exactly, Kalv is pointing out that for some people it matters, and you’re pointing out others it doesn’t. So there is a much greater downside of potentially harming his development by having him play more than he should, then there is by limiting him and building up his strength etc others ways. No one would have batted an eye if he went back to the SHL, so what’s wrong with taking a similar approach but having NHL resources available to him, as well as him playing for the big club in the games he does play this season.

 

[Crazy8oooo]

Exactly, Kalv is pointing out that for some people it matters, and you’re pointing out others it doesn’t. So there is a much greater downside of potentially harming his development by having him play more than he should, then there is by limiting him and building up his strength etc others ways. No one would have batted an eye if he went back to the SHL, so what’s wrong with taking a similar approach but having NHL resources available to him, as well as him playing for the big club in the games he does play this season.

I really respect your reply, as you’re not coming off as condescending or sarcastic towards someone with a differing opinion. With that said, How are you coming to this conclusion…based on what? (And to be clear, I’m not saying all 18 year olds are ready and will succeed.) I think in the case of Carlsson, he’s already played in a men’s league, played a long season, and is highly touted for his already mature play style. My own personal opinion is that sitting him multiple games a week/month can potentially harm him from gaining chemistry with his line mates. (Which can hurt his development). It can also play with his mind by having him sit in a press box watching his teammates play, along with other rookies who are not being treated with kid gloves. And then playing spectator while the guy who was drafted immediately after him plays against your team and has a really good showing. I feel that the mental part of that can be difficult for him.

As for the kalv post…no, I commented about top prospects being fine after playing a full season and he sarcastically countered it by mentioning someone who only played 39 games. So his response really wasn’t relevant to what he replied to.

In the end, we all have our own opinions about this and that’s perfectly fine. I had initially commented about how weird it was (for the Ducks to do it) and it isn’t something other teams do with their top prospects. I didn’t call someone out or tell anyone they’re wrong. However, it seems that some, who are ok with that path for Carlsson, don’t like that others have differing opinions to theirs. Nobody has any proof on either side of the coin as to which way is best when you have a prospect who is capable of playing at the NHL level at the age of 18.

 

[ScarTroy]

I really respect your reply, as you’re not coming off as condescending or sarcastic towards someone with a differing opinion. With that said, How are you coming to this conclusion…based on what? (And to be clear, I’m not saying all 18 year olds are ready and will succeed.) I think in the case of Carlsson, he’s already played in a men’s league, played a long season, and is highly touted for his already mature play style. My own personal opinion is that sitting him multiple games a week/month can potentially harm him from gaining chemistry with his line mates. (Which can hurt his development). It can also play with his mind by having him sit in a press box watching his teammates play, along with other rookies who are not being treated with kid gloves. And then playing spectator while the guy who was drafted immediately after him plays against your team and has a really good showing. I feel that the mental part of that can be difficult for him.

As for the kalv post…no, I commented about top prospects being fine after playing a full season and he sarcastically countered it by mentioning someone who only played 39 games. So his response really wasn’t relevant to what he replied to.

In the end, we all have our own opinions about this and that’s perfectly fine. I had initially commented about how weird it was (for the Ducks to do it) and it isn’t something other teams do with their top prospects. I didn’t call someone out or tell anyone they’re wrong. However, it seems that some, who are ok with that path for Carlsson, don’t like that others have differing opinions to theirs. Nobody has any proof on either side of the coin as to which way is best when you have a prospect who is capable of playing at the NHL level at the age of 18.

It’s just personal opinion on the potential downsides. I feel it can be more of a detriment to play a kid 82 games who is not ready, rather than play a kid 60 or so games who would otherwise be ready for 82, but you have no way of knowing that. It’s unorthodox, but if it works out you can bet more GM’s will follow suit. Trust me, I’d love to watch him play every game and I feel he’s ready to do so, but if Verbeek an co have a bigger picture in mind for him, I’m all for it, because at the end of the day they are doing it because they think it’s best for him.

My thinking, since they are trying to avoid him hitting the rookie wall, is that maybe they think when that happens to rookies they are developing bad habits or having to shortcut some of their development due to exhaustion. The is all just guesses as I have no idea, and I wish we’d have more of an explanation rather then “we want you to be a horse down the stretch.”

 

[Crazy8oooo]

It’s just personal opinion on the potential downsides. I feel it can be more of a detriment to play a kid 82 games who is not ready, rather than play a kid 60 or so games who would otherwise be ready for 82, but you have no way of knowing that. It’s unorthodox, but if it works out you can bet more GM’s will follow suit. Trust me, I’d love to watch him play every game and I feel he’s ready to do so, but if Verbeek an co have a bigger picture in mind for him, I’m all for it, because at the end of the day they are doing it because they think it’s best for him.

My thinking, since they are trying to avoid him hitting the rookie wall, is that maybe they think when that happens to rookies they are developing bad habits or having to shortcut some of their development due to exhaustion. The is all just guesses as I have no idea, and I wish we’d have more of an explanation rather then “we want you to be a horse down the stretch.”

Lol, as Ducks fans, we’ll never be given inside info on decisions. The logical side of me thinks he’d have been better off back in Orebro or the AHL if they were concerned about his conditioning and strength program. Although I understand having him there with the team helps them control it better. The selfish side of me would’ve liked to have seen him have an opportunity to challenge for the Calder. I just hope he doesn’t carry any long term resentment over this direction. I’m aware they say it’s been agreed upon, but who knows if he’s truly happy with it or not. I also hope it doesn’t scare off other players from wanting to sign for fear that their path may be delayed or held back in some way. We’ve already had a couple good prospects not sign with us over the years.

 

[ScarTroy]

Lol, as Ducks fans, we’ll never be given inside info on decisions. The logical side of me thinks he’d have been better off back in Orebro or the AHL if they were concerned about his conditioning and strength program. Although I understand having him there with the team helps them control it better. The selfish side of me would’ve liked to have seen him have an opportunity to challenge for the Calder. I just hope he doesn’t carry any long term resentment over this direction. I’m aware they say it’s been agreed upon, but who knows if he’s truly happy with it or not. I also hope it doesn’t scare off other players from wanting to sign for fear that their path may be delayed or held back in some way. We’ve already had a couple good prospects not sign with us over the years.

I can’t see him holding resentment. Plus, with the other options he wouldn’t have burnt a year of his elc, so I can’t see him being too upset he’s closer to being paid. As far as other prospects not wanting to go this route, then they can just go back to Junior, or the AHL if Verbeek doesn’t think they are quite ready for the full load. The prospects that didn’t sign over the years were the loophole guys, and as long as that exists that can happen to any team.

 

[FiveTacos]

The prospects that didn’t sign over the years were the loophole guys, and as long as that exists that can happen to any team.

And IIRC they have primarily been guys who have seen a positional logjam in front of them. Thrun is the most recent example ... He was clearly behind Mintyukov, Luneau, and Zellweger as a prospect, and that's not even factoring in guys like Drysdale and Lacombe. I'd have used the loophole too in his situation.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Ducks seem to be way more emphasized on posession this year but still impressive:

I think it helps that the blueline has much better talent and talent depth than last year, which includes MIntyukov and LaCombe.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

This is really weird. The guy isn’t 12 years old and in need of protection. I don’t see other top rookies sitting out games for “development” reasons. Also, what 18 year old needs rest? They have the most energy of everyone. Maybe sit the older players instead. Should’ve just sent him back it orebro if they didn’t want to let him play.

If you reframe your thinking, then it might be easier to accept. If you're fine with Orebro's 52-game schedule, then see it as SHL + 10% games, but on NA ice with NA game play. No one would bat an eye if Carlsson played only 52 games or fewer in the SHL this season.

 

[theslatcher]

If you reframe your thinking, then it might be easier to accept. If you're fine with Orebro's 52-game schedule, then see it as SHL + 10% games, but on NA ice with NA game play. No one would bat an eye if Carlsson played only 52 games or fewer in the SHL this season.

Where's the "+ 10%" coming from?

Since coming back from injury he has played in 50% of Anaheim's games (or: averaging 2 games per week, similar to the SHL), remove the 2 games he was injured for and if nothing changes the number ends up at 40, unless anything changes. And the 52 is not including the playoffs (or the WJCs).

If Verbeek's comments about Carlsson being a workhorse second half of the season, while keeping a similar schedule in the first half, he'll end up at up to 61 games this season.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I have a different take on the Carlsson being a part-time 1C.

First let me preface that all I cared about is Carlsson playing top-6C, and didn't care where. If Carlsson comes over to NA for rookie tourney and training camp, then he needs to stay on NA ice for consistency with coaches, teammates, narrower ice, and NA style game.

Ducks' GM Verbeek has stated that he prefers "overripen prospects". Verbeek contradicts that modus operandi when he wants to move up his rebuild timeline this year. He can do that by testing out many rookies at the NHL level. Last year, the Ducks had one rookie in McTavish, in his D+2 season. This year, the Ducks have five rookies make the NHL roster to start the season.

C Carlsson, D+1 ... (1C)
LD Mintyukov, D+2 ... (top-4D)
RD Luneau, D+2 ... (not yet ready for NHL)
LD/RD LaCombe, D+5 ... (top-4D)
C Groulx, D+6 ... (3C)

All the rookies except Luneau have looked like NHL mainstays. Big gambles on both 19-year old d-men Mintyukov and Luneau; Mintyukov has improved between rookie tourney to training camp to the NHL. Knowing Mintyukov can thrive at the start of the NHL season instead of waiting halfway through the AHL season is a big relief for GM Verbeek. Similarly can be said of the rest of the rookies.

Oddest thing is that no one's complaining about Luneau having only played two games this season and he's been healthy all the while, unlike Carlsson, who was put on season opening IR (SOIR).

Since Carlsson came to Ducks rookie tourney and training camp, Verbeek gets to see him play in-person on NA ice against his peer age and against NHLers. Report card on Carlsson by the GM and coaching staff from the rookie tourney through training camp was the more talented players Carlsson played with, the better Carlsson played.

Let's circle back to Carlsson being on SOIR. At Development Rookie camp (Dev camp), the org were running several tests, including skating endurance. During training camp, new head coach Cronin was doing full practices in the morning and then playing a full game later on in the day. Near the end of training camp, Carlsson slipped while attacking the net at practice. He slammed against the boards and lost feeling in his hips and legs. It's quite possible that muscle fatigue set in as Carlsson was overworked.

Rather than sending Carlsson down to the AHL, Verbeek would induce load mgmt to improve Carlsson's strength and stamina. The amenities at the NHL level are better than at the AHL level. Plus, Carlsson said he didn't want to go to the AHL, but back to the SHL if he couldn't make the NHL during a summer interview. I'm guessing that Verbeek is utilizing the NCAA method of playing two games close together and then four to five days rest thereafter. This process is scheduled for two months and then re-evaluated after two months.

To ensure Carlsson wouldn't be sent down to the AHL, an agreement was struck to keep Carlsson all season in the NHL and Carlsson was immediately given his new jersey number, 91, to solidify the handshake deal. In the Ducks' recent franchise history, rookies never get their set numbers until they have proven they are established in the NHL. Carlsson and his agent are happy to start his ELC this year, rather than be sent down to the AHL after 9 NHL games so his ELC could slide to next year.

Verbeek made a compromise with Carlsson so that Carlsson develops on NHL ice at SHL/NCAA pace. Carlsson was playing wing for the past two years with Orebro; as others have mentioned, playing 14 minutes a game last year. This season, Carlsson is playing 1C and at a 20 minutes a game. That's a significant shift in time, position, and level of play. He has to play 1C to best optimize his play, based upon the coaching staff and GM, which many advance stats support that optimization.

The usual course of action for D+1 players are play all season in the NHL, play 9 NHL games and get sent back, or play in the AHL if the prospect was not drafted from the CHL. C Zegras, the 9th overall in the 2019 draft, didn't go pro until his D+2 season. Even then, he started off at wing in the AHL, then called up to the NHL to play wing. Afterwards, sent back down to the AHL to play center ad called back up to play center at the NHL level, all in one season. Zegras has 24 NHL games in that D+2 season. C McTavish, the 3rd overall in the 2021 draft, got 9-NHL games in his D+1 season at wing and sent back to juniors. Speaking of the 2021 draft, the Michigan group stayed an extra year in college with #1 OA D Power, #2 OA C Beniers, and #5 OA C Johnson. #4 OA Luke Hughes also stayed two years with Michigan.

GM Verbeek isn't doing this load mgmt for Carlsson, but for his sake. If Verbeek hits on 4 out of 5 rookies this year, even on load mgmt, then that will be considered a success in a development season. The following year, the expectation will be much higher as those four rookies have had an NHL season experience under their belt. Not only that, but also a year for the several prospects that joined the AHL this year to give the Ducks in 2024-25 talented depth in LD/RD Zellweger, LD/RD Hinds, C Gaucher, and RW Pastujov.

Carlsson is playing 1C, albeit on a special schedule. That's all I cared about for his development this year, so I can't complain.

I think this load mgmt is a special case for Carlsson and a GM needing faster results for his rebuild. Faster results as in completing the rebuild a year earlier than projected. Giving up the ELC for a part-time player doesn't sound like great asset mgmt, especially when Carlsson could be a 1C full-time in the SHL (Orebro) and then transition over to the NHL as a full-time 1C in his D+2 season. Then factor in the added complication it does for the head coach rotating 1Cs for the season in his first season coaching in the NHL.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Where's the "+ 10%" coming from?

Since coming back from injury he has played in 50% of Anaheim's games (or: averaging 2 games per week, similar to the SHL), remove the 2 games he was injured for and if nothing changes the number ends up at 40, unless anything changes. And the 52 is not including the playoffs (or the WJCs).

If Verbeek's comments about Carlsson being a workhorse second half of the season, while keeping a similar schedule in the first half, he'll end up at up to 61 games this season.

That's a guesstimate.

• SHL (52 games) + 10% (that's a clean number that ends in zero) = 57.2 games.

Verbeek has stated this load mgmt schedule is for two months and then they'll re-evaluate. Playing 61 games isn't that far from the guesstimate.

 

[Trojans86]

You brought up “medically” which when you read about the medical studies, they specify that more sleep is needed. They don’t say anything about resting from daily activities or playing sports.

But as I mentioned in another comment, it just seems weird/odd given that other teams don’t do it with their star rookies.

It is what it is, obviously. And its just my opinion of it being weird. However, there are several other people commenting in here that agree that it’s weird as sh*t.

It is weird but every single body builder or power lifter knows the importance of rest, which includes sleep and downtime from training. You can go much much harder when you know you aren’t playing a game the next day and will see much much quicker gains. This is actually very basic training knowledge, not to mention the time for Leo to get in skating and skill development and spend additional time on film review. I think it’s actually genius and hope more of our rookies get some degree of load management (to a lesser exten). The nba has been doing this for a while because it is a huge advantage. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was the norm in 5 years.

Wasn’t the point. He’s still a rookie. Plus, I acknowledged he’s a bit older of a rookie. Meanwhile, Carlsson has experience already in a men’s league, so it’s not like he’s wet behind the ears. I mean, do you really think he’s not feeling any emotion about sitting out and watching others play?

He is our #1c and so far our best forward. Very different situation than getting demoted.

 

[Kalv]

I think it helps that the blueline has much better talent and talent depth than last year, which includes MIntyukov and LaCombe.

I think not only that. Even before the last season, I thought that our blueline was built badly. Fowler, Shattenkirk and Klingberg on the same linup. All soft. We were lacking any kind of physicality and PKing ability. Guys were over their heads.

This year we have Gudas, Lyb and yeah as you said, youngsters provide better depth as well. So combination of all I guess

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I think not only that. Even before the last season, I thought that our blueline was built badly. Fowler, Shattenkirk and Klingberg on the same linup. All soft. We were lacking any kind of physicality and PKing ability. Guys were over their heads.

This year we have Gudas, Lyb and yeah as you said, youngsters provide better depth as well. So combination of all I guess

2021-22: Our blueline was damn great until injuries happened. We were lacking depth and still in rebuild mode. When Verbeek took over during all-star break, the Ducks were 3rd in the Pacific and that's when Manson went to IR (between game 48 and 49). Everything went south after the TDL: Lost D Lindholm, D Manson, and LW Deslauriers. Despite tanking after the TDL, the Ducks finished with the 10th worst record in the league.

​

Ducks​	2021-22​	ST​	​	​	​	​	​	​
Game Set​	Games​	PPG​	PPO​	PP Eff​	​	PK GA​	TSH​	PK Eff​
1 to 33​	33​	23​	90​	25.6%​	​	12​	85​	85.9%​
34 to 62 (injuries started)​	29​	19​	85​	22.4%​	​	17​	89​	80.9%​
63 to 82 (TDL and forward)​	20​	6​	44​	13.6%​	​	14​	50​	72.0%​

2022-23 (last season): This is the soft corps you're mentioning with Klingberg. With Drysdale lost for most of the season (played only 8 games), the Ducks only had one top-4D in Fowler. The rest were bottom-pairing to fringe NHL/AHL defensemen. We finished dead last in the league with the worst goals against.

​

Ducks​	2022-23​	ST​	​	​	​	​	​	​
Game Set​	Games​	PPG​	PPO​	PP Eff​	.​	PK GA​	TSH​	PK Eff​
Total​	82​	36​	229​	15.7%​	​	78​	280​	72.1%​
1 to 25​	25​	12​	72​	16.7%​	​	31​	89​	65.2%​
26 to 49​	24​	11​	69​	15.9%​	​	17​	81​	79.0%​
50 to 61​	12​	5​	36​	13.9%​	​	10​	44​	77.3%​
62 to 82 (TDL)​	21​	8​	52​	15.4%​	​	20​	66​	69.7%​

This year's d-corps is much better in the Dzone and is able to push the puck to OZone so that our forwards can wreak havoc, like Carlsson.