C Leo Carlsson (2023, 2nd, ANA)

[Hockey Duckie]

Aren’t controlled entries easier on bigger ice?

As @Kalv said, technically it should be when looked at in a vacuum. Add other factors in such as quality of play, quality of players, and speed of players. The SHL is a better quality of play defensively than the NCAA. That quality of play is due to the SHL being a men's professional league whereas the NCAA is from ages 18 - 25. In a podcast interview with Carlsson and Leonard from former NHL and SHL players, the interviewing panel cite how much better the defense is at the SHL such that you rarely get odd man situations.

Age is another contextual factor. Carlsson is playing against men as an 17/18 year old. Fantilli is playing against most of his peers, which he dominated the NCAA as shown by winning the top NCAA player award, Hobey Baker, and did it as a first year player. Fantilli was the highest goal scorer and points producer in the NCAA.

Now we look at the players traits. Fantilli is one of the fastest players in the NCAA and he should be able to have better controlled exits and entries, despite the smaller rink. Being the highest scorer in the NCAA, one would think Fantilli possesses great metrics across the board. Carlsson's speed is average, which should make it more difficult for Carlsson to have controlled exits and entries. This is why video scouting is important to watch to understand why there is a vast difference in ratings. We can visually identify hockey sense. Fantilli doesn't use his teammates much in transition because his teammates can't keep up with him, which mean's he's in alone often. If Fantilli isn't on a breakaway, then it's a dead end for Fantilli. Carlsson uses puck manipulation against defenders early in transition to open up passing lanes to other teammates as well as know passing lanes going into the OZ to be available for the puck from his teammates. That's how cerebral Carlsson is at the game.

 

[BKarchitect]

Hope he goes back to Sweden. Didn’t hurt EP in his post-draft year. I suspect he’d have a pretty dominant season.

 

[Freaky Styley]

I think he's ready for full-time duty. Especially as a #3 C. Ducks are going to be scary soon.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Anaheim fans should be smiling. Here's Elite Prospect's scorecard on Fantilli and Carlsson:

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View attachment 727517

That void in Fantilli's scorecard is scary for any prospect projected to be a center. Compare that to Carlsson against men in the SHL, Carlsson projects more of a center than Fantilli today. And what is surprising is that Carlsson is better a OZ retrievals than the much faster Fantilli. Guess Carlsson has enough speed and hockey sense to win more pucks and extend the offensive possession.

The sample size of this (7 games for Fantilli), renders it almost meaningless. Also NCAA is much more Chip n Chase and North-South than SHL is on bigger ice.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

The sample size of this (7 games for Fantilli), renders it almost meaningless. Also NCAA is much more Chip n Chase and North-South than SHL is on bigger ice.

Nice. We go from specific players to generalizations. Care to add anything specific to the players like giving us specific breakdowns per game? It isn't like you couldn't see what transpired at the WC didn't reflect the scorecard or anytyhing.

 

[stevo61]

Nice. We go from specific players to generalizations. Care to add anything specific to the players like giving us specific breakdowns per game? It isn't like you couldn't see what transpired at the WC didn't reflect the scorecard or anytyhing.

What did he say that was out of line? They are coached in different ways with different systems and a very different game. They were also asked to play very different roles in the WC so I dont see how that some major positive or negative for either player. Also doesnt show what point of the season or games they tracked. Whats also funny is if you go look at those cards Fantilli gets ranked as 3rd best transition forward and Carlsson had nothing

Fantilli got a lot more freedom and could expirement a bit more which is not bad at all, Carlsson being in a pro league played a more pro game. You can find many positives in both situations and both will excel moving forward.

 

[Leonardo87]

Some mic'd up comments, while Carlsson was being selected..

 

[Rasp]

Carlsson wants to make the NHL team and he looks like he has a golden opportunity with Lundestrom tearing his achilles. Going to be an interesting training camp.

 

[Sasso09]

Based on what?



Yes, Backstrom is 6'3 and Getzlaf was a sniper

Based on my well educated opinion after WATCHING these kids for over two years, not just highlight videos. And you can read my opinions before and after the draft, the draft didn't influence my opinion like it has many others based off which team picked who.

Fantilli was my favorite player in the draft so I'm a little biased for him, so MAYBE I'm giving him an unwarranted boost?

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Honest question for anyone who has experience in this area, but how much can someone's skating actually improve once they are an adult? Are there any examples of players with significant holes in their skating technique making huge progress in those areas after their draft year?

Not much, imo. Skating is the most fundamental skill in hockey, honed over a long period of time. You can't really make drastic jumps at the pro level. Basically, a bad skater as a prospect will never become a good or elite one at the NHL level (obviously).

People throwing out names like Point, Barkov...they were good skaters, maybe they just needed something small to click. Point was dancing around and beating guys with his skating in the WHL consistently. Barkov was a very slippery skating big man in the liiga.

Stamina and strength are big things that can be improved. When you get tired your technique and mind start to go.

Carlsson is similar to Barkov. Good foundation of skating ability, just needs some minor refinements at the NHL level.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Not much, imo. Skating is the most fundamental skill in hockey, honed over a long period of time. You can't really make drastic jumps at the pro level. Basically, a bad skater as a prospect will never become a good or elite one at the NHL level (obviously).

People throwing out names like Point, Barkov...they were good skaters, maybe they just needed something small to click. Point was dancing around and beating guys with his skating in the WHL consistently. Barkov was a very slippery skating big man in the liiga.

Stamina and strength are big things that can be improved. When you get tired your technique and mind start to go.

Carlsson is similar to Barkov. Good foundation of skating ability, just needs some minor refinements at the NHL level.

With the rise of skating coaches, there is room for improvement. The question his how much improvement? It will vary per skater and their ages.

With Carlsson, he went from being 5'8 to 6'3 in two years. There are videos showing his technique at times isn't proper. Addressing that problem while his body is settling down will be very helpful to improve Carlsson's skating. Conflate that with new leg development, then that could also help with the initial 1 - 3 steps. Here's a video of Zegras doing specific leg building.



On a tangent, Anaheim drafted winger Pastujov in the 3rd round of the 2021 draft. Pastujov has 1st round talent, but third round skating. Point was drafted in the 3rd round. The Ducks' org was able convince Pastujov to forego the college route and go to the CHL, specifically the Guelph org. Guelph had renown skating coach Barb Underhill as it's skating coach at that time. Underhill has worked with a few NHL teams such as the Ducks, Lighting, and Rangers.

From the Athletic article, published in 2018:

Point wasn’t known for his speed when he was picked in the third round of the 2014 NHL draft. Three years later, the 5-foot-10 forward came within a tenth of a second of beating Connor McDavid in the fastest skater competition at the All-Star Game. Point tormented the Bruins’ top line with a ferocious forecheck as the best player in the Eastern Conference semifinals.​

​

“He’s gone from average (skater) to elite,” Lightning scouting director Al Murray said.​

​

“From acceptable to exceptional,” said Tim Hunter, Point’s junior coach in Moose Jaw.​

 

[Number 57]

Will he be in Anaheim for camp?

 

[Gliff]

Will he be in Anaheim for camp?

Yup.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Will he be in Anaheim for camp?

Yes. His SHL team, Orebro, has acknowledged that Carlsson is trying to make the Ducks's roster. With recent news that Ducks' 3C Lundestrom is out until January due to injury, an NHL roster spot becomes available and a potential way for Carlsson to stick with the Ducks. We don't know if that position will be at wing or center for Carlsson.

Although Carlsson was quoted that his options this year was NHL club or Orebro, the Ducks' GM said the progression will be NHL club, AHL club, and then SHL.

 

[wetcoast]

As @Kalv said, technically it should be when looked at in a vacuum. Add other factors in such as quality of play, quality of players, and speed of players. The SHL is a better quality of play defensively than the NCAA. That quality of play is due to the SHL being a men's professional league whereas the NCAA is from ages 18 - 25. In a podcast interview with Carlsson and Leonard from former NHL and SHL players, the interviewing panel cite how much better the defense is at the SHL such that you rarely get odd man situations.

Age is another contextual factor. Carlsson is playing against men as an 17/18 year old. Fantilli is playing against most of his peers, which he dominated the NCAA as shown by winning the top NCAA player award, Hobey Baker, and did it as a first year player. Fantilli was the highest goal scorer and points producer in the NCAA.

Now we look at the players traits. Fantilli is one of the fastest players in the NCAA and he should be able to have better controlled exits and entries, despite the smaller rink. Being the highest scorer in the NCAA, one would think Fantilli possesses great metrics across the board. Carlsson's speed is average, which should make it more difficult for Carlsson to have controlled exits and entries. This is why video scouting is important to watch to understand why there is a vast difference in ratings. We can visually identify hockey sense. Fantilli doesn't use his teammates much in transition because his teammates can't keep up with him, which mean's he's in alone often. If Fantilli isn't on a breakaway, then it's a dead end for Fantilli. Carlsson uses puck manipulation against defenders early in transition to open up passing lanes to other teammates as well as know passing lanes going into the OZ to be available for the puck from his teammates. That's how cerebral Carlsson is at the game.

While I don't disagree with all of this 15 feet extra width on the ice is massive really.

 

[BoHorvat 53]

Hope he goes back to Sweden. Didn’t hurt EP in his post-draft year. I suspect he’d have a pretty dominant season.

If EP had an NHL ready frame he probably would've been in the NHL in his d+1 year, the knock on him was how slender he was

 

[Gliff]

If EP had an NHL ready frame he probably would've been in the NHL in his d+1 year, the knock on him was how slender he was

I mean, you could make an argument that Carlsson is pretty slender to.
Growing 7 inches between age 15 and 17.
Currently 6'3 195. He should easily gain 20 lbs with his frame.

 

[Shroud of Orrin]

Very Verbeekian...

 

[sr edler]

Watched a package of this guy a while ago and he looked pretty good on the outside, but he didn't have any finish whatsoever in close on self-driven plays. All the goals he scored were either tap-ins, deflections or shots from the PP. So I don't see the Sundin comparison, yet at least, because Sundin was slick as hell in close.

 

[eklund2chicago]

Anaheim would be stupid to not have him play with Örebro this season.
20+ minutes a night and playing in all situations in Örebro vs 12 minutes a night in Anaheim.
Pretty obvious what's better for his development.

Look at Elias Pettersson and Lucas Raymond, the last two forwards from Sweden who went top 5 in the draft. They both went back to Sweden, worked on their game and came to the NHL as productive top 6 forwards.

Let him play in Sweden and let him develop his game, gain confidence, play in the WJC and be ready for a top 6 role for the 24/25 season.

This kid is going to be special but there is no need to rush him into the league right now.

 

[Ohlle]

If Anaheim doesn't send Leo to Örebro this season... Then Leo is f***ed.

 

[Kalv]

If Anaheim doesn't send Leo to Örebro this season... Then Leo is f***ed.

Some teams are probably reaching out to you now, offering a head of player development role

 

[Boxscore]

If Anaheim doesn't send Leo to Örebro this season... Then Leo is f***ed.

Umm, why? He'll get preseason and 9 games to see if he's outmatched or not. If not, he'll play, and like most good rookies, he'll score 38-45 points on a subpar Ducks club. The Ducks aren't going to force him to play if he looks overwhelmed because there's no incentive to do so. If anything, not playing him could result in them securing another Top-3 pick in the 24 draft.

 

[DuckDuckGetz]

Umm, why? He'll get preseason and 9 games to see if he's outmatched or not. If not, he'll play, and like most good rookies, he'll score 38-45 points on a subpar Ducks club. The Ducks aren't going to force him to play if he looks overwhelmed because there's no incentive to do so. If anything, not playing him could result in them securing another Top-3 pick in the 24 draft.

Because that would mean the Ducks had the gall to go against the wisdom of HFBoards, and there’s no recovering from that

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Anaheim would be stupid to not have him play with Örebro this season.
20+ minutes a night and playing in all situations in Örebro vs 12 minutes a night in Anaheim.
Pretty obvious what's better for his development.

Look at Elias Pettersson and Lucas Raymond, the last two forwards from Sweden who went top 5 in the draft. They both went back to Sweden, worked on their game and came to the NHL as productive top 6 forwards.

Let him play in Sweden and let him develop his game, gain confidence, play in the WJC and be ready for a top 6 role for the 24/25 season.

This kid is going to be special but there is no need to rush him into the league right now.

We can agree that Carlsson needs to be playing top-6C minutes. It doesn't matter where.

While I do have a preference for Örebro, that option is now moot because Carlsson will be in Anaheim for the rookie tournament exhibition and training camp, that runs from Sept until Oct. And if Carlsson gets a 9-game NHL stint, then that would take him to December to be available to either return to Örebro or San Diego, Anaheim's minor league team.

I'd rather Carlsson be sent down to San Diego to maintain consistency in coaching, teammates, and playing on NA ice. Sending Carlsson back to Örebro feels awkward after being absent from Sept through Nov, after being trained in a different way during that time. San Diego needs top talented centers and Carlsson would be welcomed in that role. Playing on NA ice, Carlsson will adapt to the smaller ice as well as a more physical environment.

Before the draft, San Diego was going to be very exciting going into this new season due to a huge influx of top prospects matriculating into the AHL: C Gaucher (QMJHL defensive forward PotY), RW Pastujov (finished 4th in scoring in the OHL), D Zellweger (x2 WHL Def PotY), D Hinds (QMJHL defensive d-man PotY), D Mintyukov (OHL Def PotY), and G Clang coming over from Europe. Adding Carlsson to that group, grow with that group, and possibly lead that group next year sounds very enticing.