C Leo Carlsson (2023, 2nd, ANA)

[jj cale]

What do you mean done nothing?

Look at his game and look at Bedard's game or even Fantilli's.

Carlsson's game is translatable to the NHL and what ever he's doing now will help him get top production in the NHL

Done nothing to suggest you should be making the claim you are making here, you said it was a crazy take and i'm backing you on that.......it's a crazy take and biased.

I've watched both Bedard and Carlsson play and if you think he has shown himself to be above Bedards level I am going to assume you don't know the game very well.

I won't even go into the Mcdavid thing.........I don't need to.

 

[ZEBROA]

This sounds like the reverse, straight. bias for European players in European leagues. He's done nothing to suggest he will be better then Bedard or will even come close to being a player of Mcdavids level.

As a, Swede i want to walk backwards into a scrub like Homer Simpson after claims like that. Happy if he becomes a ok NHL player.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Man its so crazy how there's a BIAS for NA leagues... its insane to say the least.

Carlsson is playing againts men, in the best possible league there is for a junior to play in.

How can anyone choose any one else than Carlsson at no2? Let alone 3,4.

I personally prefer Carlsson over Bedard

Here's a crazy take, Carlsson will be the next McDavid.

Boom i said it, May 11th 2023

 

[Fyodorov]

I guess Bedard is going to be Wayne Gretzky.

...with a much better shot.

 

[jj cale]

As a, Swede i want to walk backwards into a scrub like Homer Simpson after claims like that. Happy if he becomes a ok NHL player.

Quite confident he will be an NHL player and a good one, most everything is there to become one.

If he lands at 5 i'm sure my Habs will pick him and I'll be tickled pink, he won't though.

Having said that he is no Bedard, at least not at this point in time, and there is probably a less then 1% chance he will ever be a Mcdavid.

 

[Juxtaposer]

What do you mean done nothing?

Look at his game and look at Bedard's game or even Fantilli's.

Carlsson's game is translatable to the NHL and what ever he's doing now will help him get top production in the NHL

Carlsson does not have elite offensive skills the way Bedard, Michkov, and even Fantilli and Smith do, and I truly don’t understand how one can come away with that impression from watching him. I watched him play upwards of twenty times in the SHL this year, all games at the WJC, and in most of his WC games in the past few weeks. He is very, very solid at all those levels, but he has never dazzles. Much is made about Smith “dominating teenagers”, and it’s true that if you put Carlsson in the U18 this year he would have piled up points. But he would not have taken us out of our seats like Smith did, it would have been because of his imposing physicality for his age and his smarts.

I love Carlsson, I always have, and I still do. You can read numerous posts in this thread from me going back to October. But the comparison I have always made is prime Tomas Hertl with better playmaking and top speed if Carlsson gets stronger on his skates and improves his balance. If he accomplishes that, he’s a strong 1C (Tomas Hertl was very underrated in 2018-2019 especially). But I don’t know if the folks suggesting he’ll be better than Kopitar or Backstrom or god forbid Sundin really understand Carlsson’s game. He won’t wow you with a great pass or a one-timer like Smith, he won’t be the first guy hustling back to the defensive zone like Leonard or Benson. Carlsson will be effective because of his excellent smarts and size, paired with good puck skills and playmaking. What he does right now against men is very translatable, that’s absolutely true. But unless he unlocks a new level of offensive skills, he doesn’t have the 90-100+ point upside that the other four have.

That’s not a criticism, Anze Kopitar and Sasha Barkov have made excellent careers with the same attributes and I think if Carlsson hits his absolute upside, he can be a peer of those two. That’s still awesome and someone you’d love to draft in the 2-5 range this year and 1st overall most years. But it’s crazy to me to see people suggest that, especially in the case of Smith, Carlsson has equal offensive upside and wins the tiebreaker over Smith/Michkov because of size and “two-way play”. I hate to break it to everyone, but Carlsson is not an elite defensive player right now. He’s the best defensive player of the top-5 right now, but that’s entirely because the other four are actual dumpster fires in their own zones, not because Carlsson is a future Selke winner. He could be, if he develops more, but it’s not a given.

All this to say: I love Carlsson, but let’s not get carried away. I feel like there’s more clips of him attempting failed dekes in this thread than actual high-skill scoring plays. He has an incredibly high floor, but I can see why Smith has a chance to go higher than Carlsson. Smith’s offensive toolkit is just a tier above.

 

[Bombshell11]

I'm looking at Carlsson's game and I don't see the skill level to suggest he will be McDavid level or better than Bedard.

I see the skills, he's missing the execution speed, which will be developed over time.

 

[Bombshell11]

Done nothing to suggest you should be making the claim you are making here, you said it was a crazy take and i'm backing you on that.......it's a crazy take and biased.

I've watched both Bedard and Carlsson play and if you think he has shown himself to be above Bedards level I am going to assume you don't know the game very well.

I won't even go into the Mcdavid thing.........I don't need to.

Offensive production means nothing, its all about who you play, how you get your points.

 

[jj cale]

Offensive production means nothing, its all about who you play, how you get your points.

What?

 

[Juxtaposer]

Offensive production means nothing, its all about who you play, how you get your points.

I think you’ll find that it’s quite the opposite.

 

[Bombshell11]

I think you’ll find that it’s quite the opposite.

How is this even a debate? How many players translate their CHL production into the NHL?

 

[Postulates]

Man its so crazy how there's a BIAS for NA leagues... its insane to say the least.

Carlsson is playing againts men, in the best possible league there is for a junior to play in.

How can anyone choose any one else than Carlsson at no2? Let alone 3,4.

I personally prefer Carlsson over Bedard

Here's a crazy take, Carlsson will be the next McDavid.

Boom i said it, May 11th 2023

Man its so crazy how there's a BIAS for NA leagues... its insane to say the least.

Kakko is playing against men, in the best possible league there is for a junior to play in.

How can anyone choose any one else than Kakko at no. 1? Let alone 2,3.

I personally prefer Kakko over Hughes

Here's a crazy take, Kakko will be the next McDavid.

Boom i said it, May 11th 2019

 

[ZEBROA]

Quite confident he will be an NHL player and a good one, most everything is there to become one.

If he lands at 5 i'm sure my Habs will pick him and I'll be tickled pink, he won't though.

Having said that he is no Bedard, at least not at this point in time, and there is probably a less then 1% chance he will ever be a Mcdavid.

Sweden lack good centers and above all goalscorers. Still waiting for the next Hakan Loob(only 50Goal Swedish player) . But it will be interesting to follow Carlsson in the meantime.

 

[Bombshell11]

Man its so crazy how there's a BIAS for NA leagues... its insane to say the least.

Kakko is playing against men, in the best possible league there is for a junior to play in.

How can anyone choose any one else than Kakko at no. 1? Let alone 2,3.

I personally prefer Kakko over Hughes

Here's a crazy take, Kakko will be the next McDavid.

Boom i said it, May 11th 2019

Hughe is a center, Carlsson is a center
Kakko played in Liiga, he's a winger.

Your point?

 

[Postulates]

Hughe is a center, Carlsson is a center
Kakko played in Liiga, he's a winger.

Your point?

Carlsson is basically a winger if you have watched him play

 

[stevo61]

Sweden lack good centers and above all goalscorers. Still waiting for the next Hakan Loob(only 50Goal Swedish player) . But it will be interesting to follow Carlsson in the meantime.

Pettersson may get there someday.

Maybe Carlsson could help his Finnish neighbour Laine be a 50 goal guy. Carlsson is going to make everyone he plays with better, I really hope Columbus doesnt overthink it and take Smith

 

[Kcoyote3]

How is this even a debate? How many players translate their CHL production into the NHL?

A direct one for one? None of them. But there's a definite link between CHL production, age, and eventual NHL production. There's like...a shit ton of evidence linking them.

 

[majormajor]

Offensive production means nothing, its all about who you play, how you get your points.

Hughe is a center, Carlsson is a center
Kakko played in Liiga, he's a winger.

Your point?

You're going to turn people against Carlsson by starting arguments. This is not the way to build support for your preferred player.

 

[Lavar Ball]

Probably has to do more with bias as I've learned NJ fans think their players and prospects are way better than they actually are.

or maybe it's because Hughes was just clearly a step above all the other players you listed as a prospect

 

[majormajor]

Carlsson does not have elite offensive skills the way Bedard, Michkov, and even Fantilli and Smith do, and I truly don’t understand how one can come away with that impression from watching him. I watched him play upwards of twenty times in the SHL this year, all games at the WJC, and in most of his WC games in the past few weeks. He is very, very solid at all those levels, but he has never dazzles. Much is made about Smith “dominating teenagers”, and it’s true that if you put Carlsson in the U18 this year he would have piled up points. But he would not have taken us out of our seats like Smith did, it would have been because of his imposing physicality for his age and his smarts.

I love Carlsson, I always have, and I still do. You can read numerous posts in this thread from me going back to October. But the comparison I have always made is prime Tomas Hertl with better playmaking and top speed if Carlsson gets stronger on his skates and improves his balance. If he accomplishes that, he’s a strong 1C (Tomas Hertl was very underrated in 2018-2019 especially). But I don’t know if the folks suggesting he’ll be better than Kopitar or Backstrom or god forbid Sundin really understand Carlsson’s game. He won’t wow you with a great pass or a one-timer like Smith, he won’t be the first guy hustling back to the defensive zone like Leonard or Benson. Carlsson will be effective because of his excellent smarts and size, paired with good puck skills and playmaking. What he does right now against men is very translatable, that’s absolutely true. But unless he unlocks a new level of offensive skills, he doesn’t have the 90-100+ point upside that the other four have.

That’s not a criticism, Anze Kopitar and Sasha Barkov have made excellent careers with the same attributes and I think if Carlsson hits his absolute upside, he can be a peer of those two. That’s still awesome and someone you’d love to draft in the 2-5 range this year and 1st overall most years. But it’s crazy to me to see people suggest that, especially in the case of Smith, Carlsson has equal offensive upside and wins the tiebreaker over Smith/Michkov because of size and “two-way play”. I hate to break it to everyone, but Carlsson is not an elite defensive player right now. He’s the best defensive player of the top-5 right now, but that’s entirely because the other four are actual dumpster fires in their own zones, not because Carlsson is a future Selke winner. He could be, if he develops more, but it’s not a given.

All this to say: I love Carlsson, but let’s not get carried away. I feel like there’s more clips of him attempting failed dekes in this thread than actual high-skill scoring plays. He has an incredibly high floor, but I can see why Smith has a chance to go higher than Carlsson. Smith’s offensive toolkit is just a tier above.

You got baited into it by bad arguments but let's just leave that aside.

I don't agree with much of what you're writing here. I'm wondering if there is something aesthetic (a matter of taste) about what constitutes a wow pass or a wow deke, because I have seen plenty from Carlsson that look very very impressive to me. He comes up well short on finishing ability but his playmaking ought to be ahead of Fantilli and I don't think Smith in an equal setting is more of a wow player. Smith can't get around Tom Willander, I doubt we'd see him doing that much in the SHL at this age, though of course he has plenty of development in front of him.

In any case that's "wow" stuff and I don't really think wow/60 is what makes a great 1C at the NHL level, I think Carlsson has what it takes for that in other respects. I was just commenting that he happens to be a wow player for me.

 

[Bombshell11]

A direct one for one? None of them. But there's a definite link between CHL production, age, and eventual NHL production. There's like...a shit ton of evidence linking them.

Right?

Guess what, Carlsson just had one of the best season for a draft eligible player from the SHL.

What do you make of that?

The one thing i learned by looking at the CHL leagues top scoring players over each season and the Under 20 players from the SHL is that if you draft a SHL player you're chances of success are 9/10. On the opposite side, in the CHL, its more like 3.5/10 and thats also thanks to Quebec because we had the best of the best here.


Carlsson is going to dominate in this league.

 

[Bombshell11]

You're going to turn people against Carlsson by starting arguments. This is not the way to build support for your preferred player.

Offensive production in the juniors is not a factor for success.

Peter Forsberg had 28 pts in the SHL when he was 18. This is a fact, can;t argue againts facts.

 

[LilLeeroy]

Carlsson does not have elite offensive skills the way Bedard, Michkov, and even Fantilli and Smith do, and I truly don’t understand how one can come away with that impression from watching him. I watched him play upwards of twenty times in the SHL this year, all games at the WJC, and in most of his WC games in the past few weeks. He is very, very solid at all those levels, but he has never dazzles. Much is made about Smith “dominating teenagers”, and it’s true that if you put Carlsson in the U18 this year he would have piled up points. But he would not have taken us out of our seats like Smith did, it would have been because of his imposing physicality for his age and his smarts.

Did you watch Carlsson's playoff games? He was absolutely making multiple dazzling plays a game, saying he doesn't have the offensive upside of Will Smith is silly.

 

[ZEBROA]

On behalf of 99.999999% of all the Swedish fans. We do not think Carlsson is no were near McD or even Bedard.


So lets move on in the real world.

 

[Juxtaposer]

You got baited into it by bad arguments but let's just leave that aside.

I don't agree with much of what you're writing here. I'm wondering if there is something aesthetic (a matter of taste) about what constitutes a wow pass or a wow deke, because I have seen plenty from Carlsson that look very very impressive to me. He comes up well short on finishing ability but his playmaking ought to be ahead of Fantilli and I don't think Smith in an equal setting is more of a wow player. Smith can't get around Tom Willander, I doubt we'd see him doing that much in the SHL at this age, though of course he has plenty of development in front of him.

In any case that's "wow" stuff and I don't really think wow/60 is what makes a great 1C at the NHL level, I think Carlsson has what it takes for that in other respects. I was just commenting that he happens to be a wow player for me.

Man, you’re really obsessed with the one U18 game against Sweden. Smith looked great against NCAA Division 1 teams all year, doing all the same moves and all the same plays. We don’t know that Smith would “wow” in the SHL, but we also don’t know that he wouldn’t. We’re making an assumption based on his lack of physical tools and a single mediocre U18 game against Sweden.

Take the word “wow” out of my post then. I’ll be straight up. Smith has the offensive tools of a 100 point NHL forward. Carlsson does not. We can argue whether or not Smith’s tools will translate or not, but Smith is without question the player with better offensive tools between him and Carlsson. Smith makes passes Carlsson cannot. Carlsson consistently gets picked off trying to make cross-ice passes on the PP in the SHL because he lacks deception on his playmaking. Smith has an elite shot from anywhere on the ice. Carlsson shoots by far the poorest out of the top-5 guys. Smith’s hands are superior to Carlsson’s, although Carlsson’s are also excellent.

Don’t get me wrong, I still prefer Carlsson to Smith as a prospect. I can’t predict the future, it’s possible Smith is a total bust because he can’t overcome his skating deficiencies. It’s possible Carlsson develops a hitherto undiscovered dynamic element to his offensive game and becomes the next Joe Thornton. I completely understand the allure of that mythical “big two-way #1C”, believe me, I feel it too.

I watched almost every game of Sasha Barkov in his draft year (primarily because it was the only hockey to watch, what with the lockout). Barkov took me out of my seat every game in a way that Carlsson doesn’t. I’m not talking about flash, I’m talking about the ability to make high level plays against men, create goals methodically, and then hustle back on defense. Carlsson does not do that at nearly the level of Barkov.

I actually feel like Carlsson is the rawest prospect in the top-5 of this draft. It would be a huge mistake to put him in the NHL next year, he needs to play somewhere (ideally the AHL) where he can nail down his play selection and learn how to create offense in a league that doesn’t stifle creativity the way that the modern SHL does.

Did you watch Carlsson's playoff games? He was absolutely making multiple dazzling plays a game, saying he doesn't have the offensive upside of Will Smith is silly.

I watched every one of Carlsson’s playoff games. He was excellent. But he didn’t show the level of offensive creativity that Smith has.

What offensive tools does Carlsson have that are better than Smith? I would love to hear someone other than me actually talk about specifics.



I can see I’ve made a lot of people very upset with my post. Which is just absurd because Carlsson has been my favorite draft prospect all year long. Nowhere have I said that Carlsson can’t be a true #1C, or that he won’t be able to score in the NHL or anything like that. All I said is that 1) the comparisons are getting out of hand, 2) he won’t be a 90-100+ point player in the NHL, and 3) his offensive toolkit is inferior to Smith’s. I truly don’t see how any of these things are putting Carlsson down.