Man, you’re really obsessed with the one U18 game against Sweden. Smith looked great against NCAA Division 1 teams all year, doing all the same moves and all the same plays. We don’t know that Smith would “wow” in the SHL, but we also don’t know that he wouldn’t. We’re making an assumption based on his lack of physical tools and a single mediocre U18 game against Sweden.
Take the word “wow” out of my post then. I’ll be straight up. Smith has the offensive tools of a 100 point NHL forward. Carlsson does not. We can argue whether or not Smith’s tools will translate or not, but Smith is without question the player with better offensive tools between him and Carlsson. Smith makes passes Carlsson cannot. Carlsson consistently gets picked off trying to make cross-ice passes on the PP in the SHL because he lacks deception on his playmaking. Smith has an elite shot from anywhere on the ice. Carlsson shoots by far the poorest out of the top-5 guys. Smith’s hands are superior to Carlsson’s, although Carlsson’s are also excellent.
Don’t get me wrong, I still prefer Carlsson to Smith as a prospect. I can’t predict the future, it’s possible Smith is a total bust because he can’t overcome his skating deficiencies. It’s possible Carlsson develops a hitherto undiscovered dynamic element to his offensive game and becomes the next Joe Thornton. I completely understand the allure of that mythical “big two-way #1C”, believe me, I feel it too.
I watched almost every game of Sasha Barkov in his draft year (primarily because it was the only hockey to watch, what with the lockout). Barkov took me out of my seat every game in a way that Carlsson doesn’t. I’m not talking about flash, I’m talking about the ability to make high level plays against men, create goals methodically, and then hustle back on defense. Carlsson does not do that at nearly the level of Barkov.
I actually feel like Carlsson is the rawest prospect in the top-5 of this draft. It would be a huge mistake to put him in the NHL next year, he needs to play somewhere (ideally the AHL) where he can nail down his play selection and learn how to create offense in a league that doesn’t stifle creativity the way that the modern SHL does.
I watched every one of Carlsson’s playoff games. He was excellent. But he didn’t show the level of offensive creativity that Smith has.
What offensive tools does Carlsson have that are better than Smith? I would love to hear someone other than me actually talk about specifics.
I can see I’ve made a lot of people very upset with my post. Which is just absurd because Carlsson has been my favorite draft prospect all year long. Nowhere have I said that Carlsson can’t be a true #1C, or that he won’t be able to score in the NHL or anything like that. All I said is that 1) the comparisons are getting out of hand, 2) he won’t be a 90-100+ point player in the NHL, and 3) his offensive toolkit is inferior to Smith’s. I truly don’t see how any of these things are putting Carlsson down.
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