C Jack Hughes - USNTDP (2019 Draft) Part III

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Here's a list of the first overall in the last decade. Its pretty funny seeing the Johnny come lately's tell people who've actually followed the prospect for 3 years about that player because they just won the lottery, and like a couple soundbites

2009: Tavares
2010: Hall
2011: RNH
2012: Yakupov
2013: MacKinnon
2014: Ekblad
2015: McDavid
2016: Matthews
2017: Hischier
2018: Dahlin

The only players I think he clearly goes above are RNH, Yakupov, Ekblad and Hischier. I think he has a decent shot of going ahead of Hall and MacKinnon, but it's far from a lock, he'd have an uphill battle vs Matthews, Dahlin and Tavares, and McDavid is a lock to go above him. This is only looking at how they were valued at the day of their draft or how Hughes is valued right now.

Looking at that, that pretty clearly puts him in the average to good 1st overall territory given recent history. At best he's two, but more likely in the 5-7 range. That is still an absolutely unreal list of players.

Player 1
16yrs - 24 goals and 26 assists for 50 points in 44 games (1.13 ppg)
17yrs - 55 goals and 62 assists for 117 points in 60 games (1.95 ppg)

Player 2
16yrs - 27 goals and 41 assists for 68 points in 36 games (1.88 ppg)
17yrs - 23 goals and 63 assists for 86 points in 41 games (2.10 ppg)

Which one has an uphill battle?
 
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I'm all for healthy debate but I don't get why Kakko's fans feel the need to try and completely trash Hughes - is it a nationalistic pride thing?

Yes. Imo many of them have out of control egos and excessive bias due to national pride. I pointed out that this is true for a small handful of the posters in the kakko thread. It went as well as you'd expect. But no matter how many times its pointed out they refuse to evaluate their behavior
 
Here's a list of the first overall in the last decade. Its pretty funny seeing the Johnny come lately's tell people who've actually followed the prospect for 3 years about that player because they just won the lottery, and like a couple soundbites

2009: Tavares
2010: Hall
2011: RNH
2012: Yakupov
2013: MacKinnon
2014: Ekblad
2015: McDavid
2016: Matthews
2017: Hischier
2018: Dahlin

The only players I think he clearly goes above are RNH, Yakupov, Ekblad and Hischier. I think he has a decent shot of going ahead of Hall and MacKinnon, but it's far from a lock, he'd have an uphill battle vs Matthews, Dahlin and Tavares, and McDavid is a lock to go above him. This is only looking at how they were valued at the day of their draft or how Hughes is valued right now.

Looking at that, that pretty clearly puts him in the average to good 1st overall territory given recent history. At best he's two, but more likely in the 5-7 range. That is still an absolutely unreal list of players.

I would take him over Tavares, especially with the skating that Tavares had entering his draft season.

In terms of where they were at the time I see the argument for MacKinnon.

All I can say is this. I have a buddy in the industry who has been charged with the USMNTDP region for his lengthy career and he says in his opinion Hughes is the most talented player he has seen come through. He isn't McDavid or Crosby, but he could be just below them according to him. He understands those going with Eichel and Matthews, his was actually still Kane in terms of Americans but he now says it is Hughes. So not everyone values him the same way you do.....

Again, I think he is the best passer to come through the program.
 
Here's a list of the first overall in the last decade. Its pretty funny seeing the Johnny come lately's tell people who've actually followed the prospect for 3 years about that player because they just won the lottery, and like a couple soundbites

2009: Tavares
2010: Hall
2011: RNH
2012: Yakupov
2013: MacKinnon
2014: Ekblad
2015: McDavid
2016: Matthews
2017: Hischier
2018: Dahlin

The only players I think he clearly goes above are RNH, Yakupov, Ekblad and Hischier. I think he has a decent shot of going ahead of Hall and MacKinnon, but it's far from a lock, he'd have an uphill battle vs Matthews, Dahlin and Tavares, and McDavid is a lock to go above him. This is only looking at how they were valued at the day of their draft or how Hughes is valued right now.

Looking at that, that pretty clearly puts him in the average to good 1st overall territory given recent history. At best he's two, but more likely in the 5-7 range. That is still an absolutely unreal list of players.
Youve followed the prospect for years yet your analysis is so far off from most amateur scout rankings that its questionable what youre watching
 
His 16 year season was generational level. It torched Matthews and Eichel's 16 year seasons and even eclipsed Eichel's 17 year old season. He didn't increase his totals by much this season...so what. The U18 was mercy beating most teams and likely rolling lines. Nobody has come close to putting up 2.10 PPG on that team.

Player 1
16yrs - 24 goals and 26 assists for 50 points in 44 games (1.13 ppg)
17yrs - 55 goals and 62 assists for 117 points in 60 games (1.95 ppg)

Player 2
16yrs - 27 goals and 41 assists for 68 points in 36 games (1.88 ppg)
17yrs - 23 goals and 63 assists for 86 points in 41 games (2.10 ppg)

Which one has an uphill battle?
Are we forgetting Matthews draft year that improved his stock due to the fact he was the best player in the Swiss League as an 18-year-old and had a very strong Men's WC? That sort of has t obe factored in at their draft date. Plus, lets ignore that one is built in the exact mold people want in their franchise centers. It's not like the analysis and expectations for Matthews stopped once he left the USNTDP. Matthews draft season was better, but he was also older, and his 17 year old season was as good or better. The 16 year old season you reference, since you want to point to the AHL situation with Hischier. Matthews was behind Larkin and Eichel when he got promoted to the U-18's mid-year after coming off of injury. He wasn't promoted to the first-line with two top 15 picks for that draft year.

62 point pace before his injury on an AHL team, I will put money up he ellipses 60 points next season. He trolls all that doesn't wear a leaf.
If that's how you want to argue fine. I don't troll non-Leafs players around here. If you think I do, then fine. I guess I remember the backlash I got for my opinions on Zacha and McLeod. How are they doing today? I give players credit when I think they deserve it and I give an analysis.

You also claimed Hischier had ~60 point upside if I remember correctly (please correct me if I'm wrong), which is clearly idiotic with his trajectory as it stands today.
I said I saw him more as a Duchene and Monahan level prospect. Which, I still think holds true today. I didn't think he was a lock to become a top 15 center in the league, and doing that will still be an uphill battle. His production is still pretty much in line with the comparables I gave, which were Duchene and RNH. I would never say a player of any skill level caps out at 60 points. Players exceed and underachieve expectations all the time.

Youve followed the prospect for years yet your analysis is so far off from most amateur scout rankings that its questionable what youre watching
How is it off from consensus? I still have him as the 1st overall player in the draft. Scouts/Bob McKenzie commonly compare him to the players I mentioned. Where does my opinion dramatically differ? The fact I don't think he's a truly elite number 1 pick?
 
Are we forgetting Matthews draft year that improved his stock due to the fact he was the best player in the Swiss League as an 18-year-old and had a very strong Men's WC? That sort of has t obe factored in at their draft date. Plus, lets ignore that one is built in the exact mold people want in their franchise centers. It's not like the analysis and expectations for Matthews stopped once he left the USNTDP. Matthews draft season was better, but he was also older, and his 17 year old season was as good or better. The 16 year old season you reference, since you want to point to the AHL situation with Hischier. Matthews was behind Larkin and Eichel when he got promoted to the U-18's mid-year after coming off of injury. He wasn't promoted to the first-line with two top 15 picks for that draft year.
Hughes could very easily put up 65 points in the NHL as an 18 year old, I'm not sure Matthews season with Zurich really did much either way for his draft ranking as you seem to think. It's an expected result from an 18 year old in a lesser european league.

If that's how you want to argue fine. I don't troll non-Leafs players around here. If you think I do, then fine. I guess I remember the backlash I got for my opinions on Zacha and McLeod. How are they doing today? I give players credit when I think they deserve it and I give an analysis.
Do you want me to go back and look at the opinions you got wrong? To be fair, I have been bashing McLeod since his 19 year season where no improvements were made.
 
I said I saw him more as a Duchene and Monahan level prospect. Which, I still think holds true today. I didn't think he was a lock to become a top 15 center in the league, and doing that will still be an uphill battle. His production is still pretty much in line with the comparables I gave, which were Duchene and RNH. I would never say a player of any skill level caps out at 60 points. Players exceed and underachieve expectations all the time.
Fair enough.
 
Hughes could very easily put up 65 points in the NHL as an 18 year old, I'm not sure Matthews season with Zurich really did much either way for his draft ranking as you seem to think. It's an expected result from an 18 year old in a lesser european league.


Do you want me to go back and look at the opinions you got wrong?
The World's and Zurich absolutely helped and improved his stock overall. But, since he was the #1 it didn't really affect things. It also helped in the fact a 2nd season of truly elite performance obviously starts to mitigate risk attached with it. I haven't bashed Hughes at all. I don't think saying he's an average to good 1st overall pick is bashing him, and I don't think saying he's unlikely to be the goal-scorer Kane has become is either.

I know I got things wrong. No one predicting the career paths of 17-year-olds is going to be right all the time. But, it's more people pointing to what I said about Hischier. Which I still stand by. He's likely a Duchene level player. I didn't say he topped out as a 60 point player. I didn't bring my prior posting history into this, someone else did, and you continued saying I troll non-Leafs. Which I don't.
 
The World's and Zurich absolutely helped and improved his stock overall. But, since he was the #1 it didn't really affect things. It also helped in the fact a 2nd season of truly elite performance obviously starts to mitigate risk attached with it. I haven't bashed Hughes at all. I don't think saying he's an average to good 1st overall pick is bashing him, and I don't think saying he's unlikely to be the goal-scorer Kane has become is either.

I know I got things wrong. No one predicting the career paths of 17-year-olds is going to be right all the time. But, it's more people pointing to what I said about Hischier. Which I still stand by. He's likely a Duchene level player. I didn't say he topped out as a 60 point player. I didn't bring my prior posting history into this, someone else did, and you continued saying I troll non-Leafs. Which I don't.
Troll maybe the wrong word, severely overrate Leafs prospects when comparing to others. Either way, in terms of skills you won't find many #1 picks with 70+ rankings for skating, puck skills, passing and hockey sense. If you don't like my scale then 5, 5, 5 and 5 may work for you.
 
Troll maybe the wrong word, severely overrate Leafs prospects when comparing to others. Either way, in terms of skills you won't find many #1 picks with 70+ rankings for skating, puck skills, passing and hockey sense. If you don't like my scale then 5, 5, 5 and 5 may work for you.
The only guy I can think I overrated in retrospect was Nylander, who was still tracking extremely well until this season. You don't see me around here pumping the tires of guys like Bracco or Woll.

Okay then, where do you think Hughes ranks in regards to the last ten #1 overall picks? Saying he is average to good as a number 1 overall pick isn't a shot. I just happen to think he's closer to 5 than he is to 1, which would put him in the average tier of recent number 1's. That is still a hell of a player. I'd said I don't think he would go above Matthews, JT or Dahlin, and obviously not McDavid. I don't think that is one overrating Matthews given how complete and projectable his skill set was. I think Hughes, Hall and MacKinnon would be more of a discussion. I'd say the same about Eichel being ahead of Hughes at their draft date.
 
The only guy I can think I overrated in retrospect was Nylander, who was still tracking extremely well until this season. You don't see me around here pumping the tires of guys like Bracco or Woll.

Okay then, where do you think Hughes ranks in regards to the last ten #1 overall picks? Saying he is average to good as a number 1 overall pick isn't a shot. I just happen to think he's closer to 5 than he is to 1, which would put him in the average tier of recent number 1's. That is still a hell of a player. I'd said I don't think he would go above Matthews, JT or Dahlin, and obviously not McDavid. I don't think that is one overrating Matthews given how complete and projectable his skill set was. I think Hughes, Hall and MacKinnon would be more of a discussion.
I don't rank him, it's a silly discussion that will just piss fans off and accomplishes nothing. All I know is that NJ will have one of the fastest dynamic 1/2 combo's up the middle for the next 10 years.
 
Hughes getting 17 shots in 4 games in the WJC is really good. Considering he was 17, playing 13-14 minutes a night, and didn't get to beat up on Kazakhstan is even more impressive
 
I don't rank him, it's a silly discussion that will just piss fans off and accomplishes nothing. All I know is that NJ will have one of the fastest dynamic 1/2 combo's up the middle for the next 10 years.
Well, I don't disagree with that. It's an exciting time for Devil's fan/ But, the issue people seem to have is one, saying he's an average to good first overall pick and that he's unlikely to have Patrick Kane's shot. Matthews wasn't even brought up by me. I was responding to why people think Matthews and Eichel were ahead. Which then devolved into bashing Matthews.
 
Well, I don't disagree with that. It's an exciting time for Devil's fan/ But, the issue people seem to have is one, saying he's an average to good first overall pick and that he's unlikely to have Patrick Kane's shot. Matthews wasn't even brought up by me. I was responding to why people think Matthews and Eichel were ahead. Which then devolved into bashing Matthews.
Like I said, after watching his training regiment I believe he will likely have a shot near Kane's level by the time he is 22. Whether he uses it as much as Kane is a different question, the skill will be in the toolbox.
 
Like I said, after watching his training regiment I believe he will likely have a shot near Kane's level by the time he is 22. Whether he uses it as much as Kane is a different question, the skill will be in the toolbox.
Most high-end players train insanely hard. I have trouble seeing it make that type of jump. Not saying its impossible, just unlikely. Marner does similar training, and while his shot has grown since London, it is unlikely to ever be as good as Kane's. I believe a guy like Hughes is in the same boat.
 
There are some crazy arguments on here. This is off/on topic (Hard to Dicipher). It is pointless to compare players in the league to prospects. You might think you can match players base on styles and statistics to find a predictable outcome but you can’t. You can try and Voltron a bunch of different plays to try to describe Hughes but that doesn’t work ether. Austin Mathews has popped up a few times for a mediocre argument. Personally, I think Mathews has more similarities to Kakko then Hughes. I can see Mathews scoring 50 goals but he is not the best playmaker (Perfectly OK) and that is apples to oranges to Hughes style.
 
Actually, as this recent shift-by-shift video by prospectshifts Jack Hughes vs Des Moines | Mar 23 2019 has a great example, I'll show what I really dislike about Hughes's skating right now:


That sequence from 9:08 to 9:30 eventually ends with Hughes generating a scoring chance. So let's take a look at how it starts. Hughes is carrying the puck, gets his pocket picked. Takes a wiide circle around, way behind the play defensively. The play is then turned around again, with his team counterattacking. Hughes takes a wiiiiiide circle around his own zone, completely behind the play and nowhere near the attack. After showing up late, the play turns the other way around and Hughes takes another wiiiide circle around, way behind the play once again. And then when the play turns around and he's essentially at the opponent's blue line, he once again takes a wiiiiide turn, but this time he's behind the defense and they get a 3-1 rush and he generates a scoring chance.

This sort of play, I'm not a fan of at all. It's what I've described as "pond hockey". This doesn't work in NHL. Hopefully he can play different styles as well.

This is my description of that sequence, faceoff to whistle:
  • wins defensive zone draw
  • follows play across ice as his teammates' failed rim pass goes to an opposing d-man at the blueline
  • pivots toward the corner to support his d-man handling the opponent's failed pass
  • skates into opposite corner to retrieve his d-man's area pass
  • sauces a deft backhand pass to his winger on the half-wall, and turns up-ice to provide support
  • sweeps the puck from an opponent's stick to another winger at the blueline, his first winger having mishandled the pass
  • takes a return pass from the second winger as he crosses the blueline
  • forechecking opponent slashes his stick, causing a turnover
  • circles to provide defensive support, his teammates in a good 3-on-3 position inside the blueline
  • his d-man steals a pass and feeds a winger breaking across the blueline
  • continues his circle into the d-zone as his teammates enter the offensive zone 3-on-2
  • enters the offensive zone in perfect position to receive a pass as he approaches the high slot
  • the pass is intercepted, and he turns yet again to provide defensive support for another 3-on-3 situation
  • his d-man intercepts a pass at the blueline, and he turns up-ice to retrieve a nice area pass chipped off the boards, producing a near 3-on-1 as he crosses the blueline
  • patiently finds his weak-side winger as each hits the faceoff dot
  • goalie makes a fine stop on the resulting shot
Is that the best cherry-picking you can do to criticize Hughes' play? Apart from an inconsequential turnover, I only see the anticipation, puck skills, skating, vision, etc. that has NHL scouts so excited.
 
This is my description of that sequence, faceoff to whistle:
  • wins defensive zone draw
  • follows play across ice as his teammates' failed rim pass goes to an opposing d-man at the blueline
  • pivots toward the corner to support his d-man handling the opponent's failed pass
  • skates into opposite corner to retrieve his d-man's area pass
  • sauces a deft backhand pass to his winger on the half-wall, and turns up-ice to provide support
  • sweeps the puck from an opponent's stick to another winger at the blueline, his first winger having mishandled the pass
  • takes a return pass from the second winger as he crosses the blueline
  • forechecking opponent slashes his stick, causing a turnover
  • circles to provide defensive support, his teammates in a good 3-on-3 position inside the blueline
  • his d-man steals a pass and feeds a winger breaking across the blueline
  • continues his circle into the d-zone as his teammates enter the offensive zone 3-on-2
  • enters the offensive zone in perfect position to receive a pass as he approaches the high slot
  • the pass is intercepted, and he turns yet again to provide defensive support for another 3-on-3 situation
  • his d-man intercepts a pass at the blueline, and he turns up-ice to retrieve a nice area pass chipped off the boards, producing a near 3-on-1 as he crosses the blueline
  • patiently finds his weak-side winger as each hits the faceoff dot
  • goalie makes a fine stop on the resulting shot
Is that the best cherry-picking you can do to criticize Hughes' play? Apart from an inconsequential turnover, I only see the anticipation, puck skills, skating, vision, etc. that has NHL scouts so excited.
It's not cherry picked at all. Just a good example. He does these pond hockey turns almost exclusively. It's an overarching playstyle, which you'll see if you watch any full match of his, or even a single period. If you watch the entire video, you'll see this very well - not sure how your analysis has anything to do with what I'm talking about. He specifically as his playstyle almost exclusively is constantly skating circles, stopping very rarely to react to a play.

In case you don't get what he's in my opinion supposed to do, it's instantly brake, instantly turn around and accelerate in the opposite direction. He could actually join all of these plays instead of going around in broad circles. Am I saying that's something he'll be unable to physically do when seeking to play in NHL? No. But it's still puzzling. Actually, this is something I've been paying plenty of attention to as it used to be a significant issue in Finland. But lately, I've seen many of the top prospects actually playing start-and-stop in even juniors, which is something I didn't see before. Usually, North American players don't pond hockey it up like this, they do proper turns.

But well, it still is something I greatly dislike. He can't play in NHL like this, he'll need to change it. Look at NHL teams after they get the puck, they turn around and instantly skate in the opposite direction, that's how most of the good chances on the rush are gained. A guy going around in wide circles will be very late and outside the play.


On your analysis, by the way, consider for a moment how the situation would have played out had his teammates not accomplished all they actually did. Remember he's a center and think about a center's role. For example, what if at the end, instead of his team winning the puck, the opposing team just attacked and scored? Well, he'd have been late from everything the entire sequence. There is not a single C in NHL who gets away with this sort of play.

The next time you watch any NHL match, see what they do on a broken play / possession change and how many centers do pond hockey turns instead of turning around instantly and actually joining the play. Especially defensively, think about the impact.
 
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It’s like Matthews - Laine threads from three years earlier :help:

Yes, Kakko is a great player and Finland is produce absolutely elite talents. But go praise Kakko in his thread instead of trying to belittle Hughes to prop up your guy. It’s just straight up obnoxious.

I’m already dreading the Lundell threads for next year.
 
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It's not cherry picked at all. Just a good example. He does these pond hockey turns almost exclusively. It's an overarching playstyle, which you'll see if you watch any full match of his, or even a single period. If you watch the entire video, you'll see this very well - not sure how your analysis has anything to do with what I'm talking about. He specifically as his playstyle almost exclusively is constantly skating circles, stopping very rarely to react to a play.

In case you don't get what he's in my opinion supposed to do, it's instantly brake, instantly turn around and accelerate in the opposite direction. He could actually join all of these plays instead of going around in broad circles. Am I saying that's something he'll be unable to physically do when seeking to play in NHL? No. But it's still puzzling. Actually, this is something I've been paying plenty of attention to as it used to be a significant issue in Finland. But lately, I've seen many of the top prospects actually playing start-and-stop in even juniors, which is something I didn't see before. Usually, North American players don't pond hockey it up like this, they do proper turns.

But well, it still is something I greatly dislike. He can't play in NHL like this, he'll need to change it. Look at NHL teams after they get the puck, they turn around and instantly skate in the opposite direction, that's how most of the good chances on the rush are gained. A guy going around in wide circles will be very late and outside the play.


On your analysis, by the way, consider for a moment how the situation would have played out had his teammates not accomplished all they actually did. Remember he's a center and think about a center's role. For example, what if at the end, instead of his team winning the puck, the opposing team just attacked and scored? Well, he'd have been late from everything the entire sequence. There is not a single C in NHL who gets away with this sort of play.

The next time you watch any NHL match, see what they do on a broken play / possession change and how many centers do pond hockey turns instead of turning around instantly and actually joining the play. Especially defensively, think about the impact.

I swear at this point you could write a 200+ page book about everything wrong with Hughes. Its honestly impressive that you take this much time out of your life to downplay a 17 year old
 
It's not cherry picked at all. Just a good example. He does these pond hockey turns almost exclusively. It's an overarching playstyle, which you'll see if you watch any full match of his, or even a single period. If you watch the entire video, you'll see this very well - not sure how your analysis has anything to do with what I'm talking about. He specifically as his playstyle almost exclusively is constantly skating circles, stopping very rarely to react to a play.

In case you don't get what he's in my opinion supposed to do, it's instantly brake, instantly turn around and accelerate in the opposite direction. He could actually join all of these plays instead of going around in broad circles. Am I saying that's something he'll be unable to physically do when seeking to play in NHL? No. But it's still puzzling. Actually, this is something I've been paying plenty of attention to as it used to be a significant issue in Finland. But lately, I've seen many of the top prospects actually playing start-and-stop in even juniors, which is something I didn't see before. Usually, North American players don't pond hockey it up like this, they do proper turns.

But well, it still is something I greatly dislike. He can't play in NHL like this, he'll need to change it. Look at NHL teams after they get the puck, they turn around and instantly skate in the opposite direction, that's how most of the good chances on the rush are gained. A guy going around in wide circles will be very late and outside the play.


On your analysis, by the way, consider for a moment how the situation would have played out had his teammates not accomplished all they actually did. Remember he's a center and think about a center's role. For example, what if at the end, instead of his team winning the puck, the opposing team just attacked and scored? Well, he'd have been late from everything the entire sequence. There is not a single C in NHL who gets away with this sort of play.

The next time you watch any NHL match, see what they do on a broken play / possession change and how many centers do pond hockey turns instead of turning around instantly and actually joining the play. Especially defensively, think about the impact.

must have oodles of time on your hands. would be curious to know your credentials in the scouting community, as most professional scouts and writers do not share your disdain for Jack’s “pond hockey” antics. your last post culminated my reasoning for so infrequently posting here with how quixotic and exhausting your “analysis” was to read.
 
Well, nowhere does he mention that Hughes is covering for the D that joins the rush. So I'm guessing credentials aren't a thing.
 
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