C Connor McDavid - Erie Otters, OHL (2015 Draft) V

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

This guy is an Eichel fan who has been taking subtle jabs at McDavid all season to try and diminish his accomplishments relative to the former. He'll couch it in claims like "no no, you have it wrong, I'm actually a big McDavid fan!", only to subsequently throw out some cherry-picked stat to try and support his position that McDavid is overrated.

I am going to put an end to the idiotic notion that I am some sort of Eichel fanboy / McDavid hater.

Examine the evidence yourself.

Here are some of my posts from this thread from 2012:

I never thought of Tavares as even closely comparable to Crosby because of his skating ability. And while he's improved that, he will never be an elite skater like Crosby. McDavid is already a great skater and has shown better awareness than Tavares at the same age.

But in terms of effectiveness, 15 y/o McDavid will probably put up similar point totals as a 15 y/o Tavares, but I expect they'll be a bit better.

Mackinnon is a great prospect to be sure. He reminds me of a more athletic Eberle with a better shot. Both guys are quick, elusive, and can finish. Eberle was showing a bit more creativity with the puck but Mackinnon is just a lot stronger and more athletic - he's got 40G 90P potential at the NHL for sure.

That said, McDavid has the potential to be a top 3 offensive player in the world in his prime, maybe even # 1 if he can bulk up. He is hands down the best prospect since Crosby at this age.

I disagree - Tavares had great vision, no doubt, but it wasn't on the Crosby/McDavid level, especially at top speed. Tavares had great vision right around the net, but in terms of being able to make plays in transition and while evading defenders in the corner, Crosby and McDavid both displayed better awareness.

Tavares does do a few things better than McDavid at 15:

Better offensive awareness without the puck - this is the most critical piece of the puzzle that McDavid lacks compared to Crosby and Tavares, who is arguably at the same level of Sid. Crosby and Tavares are the best in the world at getting open in and around the slot and timing their crashes to the net to bang in rebounds.
Softer hands and finishing ability around the net - Tavares was even better than Crosby here, probably the best in the world with regards to this, honestly.
Hand eye coordination
Bigger and stronger around the net - JT was a great finisher around the net partly because we was so strong on his stick.

But McDavid was better than Tavares in several key areas:

Vision - like I mentioned, McDavid is better here - especially on the rush and while coming out of the corners.
Skating - better speed, acceleration, balance, and control. This is probably THE most critical factor that led me to ranking him above Tavares as a prospect. IMO, if Tavares could skate like McDavid can, they'd be ranked even, with Tavares being the better goal scorer and McDavid the playmaker.
Deking - better able to beat players coming down the wing and out of the corner
Defensive awareness - JT was pretty weak here as a 15 year old, McDavid has some early signs of competence in his own zone.

And these posts from this 2013 thread:

In terms of potential, McDavid could be better than 87 offensively. You have to remember that when Corsby was 16 he was already one of the strongest guys in the CHL from the waist down, which is what enabled him to dominate so early on. Tavares was also very far along in his physical development. McDavid is significantly less mature than either of those 2 at 16. As he starts to fill out his frame I think his point totals (specifically goals) will take off. Just think that he is scoring most of his points from the perimeter - but where did Sid and Tavares score most of their points?
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He's not a guy who will go into traffic as often as a guy like crosby, and he doesn't have the same boxy build, but the kid kid is still a great goalscorer and gets to the net quite easily. But he's definitely more of a perimeter player at this point in his development, probably due to his stature.

His offensive playing style is a blend of a few guys - sees the ice like a Crosby, puck skills and strength/balance like a Giroux, and skates like a Stamkos. If McDavid can get to 195+ lbs at 6' he's going to become a very difficult player to play against. I project him to be a perennial 30+g 100+ point guy in his prime, with a few seasons exceeding 110 pts.

Here are some posts from a thread from a few months ago

5 goals and 12 points now thru <4 gp? Good start. I'd be shocked if he ended up below 2.25 PPG for the season.
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That is big for a 17 year old with the skill and skating ability he has. His athleticism reminds me a lot of Stamkos. Very similar frames with comparable skating and agility.
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Who has said that McDavid will be better than Crosby?

For my money, McDavid is the more skilled prospect, better hands, better shot, faster. I don't think he has the same awareness away from the puck and doesn't find the openings as well when he doesn't have the puck. He also doesn't have the same puck possession ability, but he has shown improvement there.

For those reasons, I consider Crosby to have been the better prospect, and don't expect McDavid to ever catch him.
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I honestly think his shot is underrated (and under utilized). He has shown the ability to snipe from the outside though, especially coming down the left wing. He's not a great shooter yet, but he's OK.

Crosby's shot was similarly average, but with his short stick and flat blade he really struggled to score from the perimeter until he was about 20/21 years old, though he did have that quick release. When comparing the two, I really do think Mcdavid had the better overall shot at the same stage in their development.
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He's proving why he is considered to be best prospect since 87.

And one more from this thread from a few months ago

I'd give McDavid a 10C at this point. I think 9.5B is a bit generous. If anything, he might have a higher max ceiling than Sid based on his size and skating advantage but a lower chance of achieving it based on his weaker lower body and lower compete level (not that hes not a competitor but he's not Crosby competitive).

And this thread. Read pages 6 - 9 to get an idea of how much of a McDavid hater I am. You probably already have, given you post in that range. Maybe you just weren't paying attention? Or is it a reading comprehension problem??

With every game he's proving why he's considered a better prospect than Tavares. People called me crazy for guessing a 140+ point season . . . he could be nearing 100 by the WJCs.
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McDavid is currently on a 180 point pace. If he maintains that (doubtful, probably ends between 145 and 160), it would be the best draft eligible season since Mario.

I still don't think he translates as well as Crosby at the NHL level, but thinking McDavid could become better than him is far from a ridiculous opinion to hold given the ability he's shown.
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In order to believe he will only score 120 points you'd have to believe that he will score at only 2.0 ppg pace for his final 45 games. I can't believe that he'd drop off to that extent.

And here's some Eichel critiquing from a recent thread

100% agree. He [Eichel] lacks tenacity on the forecheck and does not pursue open ice with enough urgency, both of which is a concern. He's got all the talent in the world though.
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Disagree. He doesn't have nearly the same edge to his game. Stylistically, they play the game in a similar way, but Getzlaf is a tough customer. Eichel has the temperament of like an E Staal.

Anyone else still think I'm a trolling Eichel fanboy/McDavid hater? Maybe you should think about your own bias before projecting it on me. So many posters have to turn this into a Canadian vs American thing. I mean for god's sake, lawrence and The Writer both voted McDavid as having a better shot than Eichel, just because he was born north of the border. I bet dollars to donuts that if I had a Canadian flag below my name there wouldn't be hardly any outcry. But alas . . . apparently American hockey fans aren't allowed to ask questions about Canadian royalty without having an agenda.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Domination of what? The NHL??
No chance.

Kid might not score 50 goals or 130 points in his life..

He'll be neutralized like Mackinnon. ....

McDavid is a much smarter offensive player than Mackinnon and is also a significantly better puckhandler and playmaker. Mackinnon is more containable because he is more one dimensional and just flat out not as talented.

 

[drganon]

Domination of what? The NHL??
No chance.

Kid might not score 50 goals or 130 points in his life..

He'll be neutralized like Mackinnon. ....

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say barring some massive career ending injury, he's gonna score at least 50 goals/130 points in total over his career. But then again, after reading what you had to say about Carey Price's Hart chances this season, I don't think anyone should take what you have to say about anything seriously at all.

 

[SAK11]

Firstly, I think his comment was directed at posts from myself and others remarking how McDavid has yet to show the same level of dominance as Crosby did in his final 25 games of his draft year, where he scored 86 points for 3.44 PPG avg. No where in that argument is the notion that McDavid can't reach that level, merely that he hasn't to this point.

Secondly, since when is asking questions an 'overreaction'? I began by asking, to those who get to view him more frequently, if there was any explanation for McDavid's post WJC slow down (he was 2.83 ppg in the 18 games before WJC, and 2.1 in the 17 after). People replied that he may be bored or losing motivation, which I found surprising based on my own viewings. You can bring up sample size, and it is relevant, but where were all the calls for sample size in his first 18 games then? Going into the WJC, it was commonly accepted that McDavid was a 3 ppg player, I heard it everywhere. But once that pace dropped, people start playing the sample size card?

And if sample size is really an issue, then how is a 5 game scoring streak enough evidence to declare that a player has reached a new level? If my questions were an overreaction, than surely all the dismissal of his previous slump and the declarations of McDavid's new level of play are premature, no?


Seems like a double standard, but no, I am not surprised by a reaction like that.

It's fine for you to ask a question, I was one of the people that answered it. But you questioned his competitiveness. That was off the mark and I think it's normal for people who watch him play regularly to be annoyed by a comment like that. His play had been fine, even you said that in the games you watched he looked great. I also don't think people came out and definitively said he was bored or not trying as hard, if you want to look back I made note of that much earlier. And now, the point total is more reflective of the fact that he's been playing hard post World Juniors, and questioning his competitiveness was a mistake.

To make so much out of point totals is lazy anyway.

 

[Topgoon]

I didn't forget anything. Just find it interesting that people will take me asking questions as an insult to their golden boy. I never once made the argument that he claims. So let's get something straight, it was his own bias that caused him to post what he did, because it wasn't at all a reflection of the truth.

Perception is a funny thing.

On one hand, I think you've made some great points here, and I too believe that certain concerns and expectations raised about CMD's game is very valid (i.e. how it'll transition to the NHL)

However, what you've just stated above is media accusation tactic 101.

You can use questions to plant seeds into people's mind, with the same effect of making a statement, without ACTUALLY making a statement.

You see it on Tabloids all the time. Imagine the following headline. What does it imply?
"Is player XYZ completely UNCOACHABLE and a LOCKER ROOM CANCER??? We're not saying it - just asking questions that need to be asked".

Perception is indeed an interesting thing.

 

[Dhockey16]

There's not much justification for having McDavid ahead of Crosby at this point as a prospect. The margin is the close, but Crosby was the better prospect.

I don't think we'll see McDavid play at the same level Crosby did his first couple years in the league. Crosby winning a Hart at 19 is ridiculous. I do think, however, that McDavid's best years could very good well be better than Sid's best. Crosby gets a ton of "garbage" goals while CMD is most dangerous off of the rush. This is one of the reasons I don't really like the 87/97 comparison. They have a very similar skating stride and they're clearly both world-class talents...but beyond that, they are different players. McDavid will need to adapt his game to the NHL in a way Crosby didn't have to. CMD won't be able to torch NHL defenders the way he's walked through the 'O this year.

First year in the NHL I predict 25 G/55 A. He might even hover in the 75-90 pt range for 2-4 years. At his best though... I think we could see a 125 point season. Maybe even 130 depending on a bunch of variables we're all aware of that don't need to be detailed. His skill level is effing breathtaking. You've all seen the videos, and I'm sure plenty have seen him in person...but anyone that closely follows him and watches a good chunk of his games knows the extra gear can kick into.

Like I said, Sid is the better prospect and it's not all-that-close, though CMD has come closer than any. I wouldn't bet against 97 though. He has the drive and ability to be the best the game has seen since Mario Lemieux. He could also end up comfortably in the Steven Stamkos, Patrick Kane range as a pro. Realistically, I see his career being pretty damn close to Sid's overall. Time will tell.

 

[DazedandConfused]

Yeah, different styles, but the same kind of projections to being the best of their generations. The comparisons will never leave him though, regardless of what he accomplishes.

 

[ForzaItalia]

I think the league today is not set up for him to have an Ovechkin or Crosby type of rookie year.

 

[SAK11]

I think the league today is not set up for him to have an Ovechkin or Crosby type of rookie year.

80 points now was 100 points then.

 

[FinProspects]

I think the league today is not set up for him to have an Ovechkin or Crosby type of rookie year.

McDavid will be 70 point player in his first year, probably even 80. Just too much skill there, and the team will be built around him.

 

[ForzaItalia]

80 points now was 100 points then.

Yep.

FinProspects, I've never seen McDavid play but it would be crazy if he hit 70-80 as a rookie.

 

[Jeti]

80 points now was 100 points then.

Adjusting just for overall scoring is oversimplifying it. Not only are goals down, but specifically PP's are down, where rookies have more time and space and less of an adjustment to NHL defenses.

 

[Hero]

Domination of what? The NHL??
No chance.

Kid might not score 50 goals or 130 points in his life..

He'll be neutralized like Mackinnon. ....

lol how are these two comparable?

Draft years...

Mackinnon - 75 points in 44 games (playing in the higher scoring Q, with Druoin, the next best CHL player on his wing)
McDavid - 107 points in 40 games (including a stretch where he was coming back from injury)

Scoring wise, they're not even in the same realm.

 

[SAK11]

Adjusting just for overall scoring is oversimplifying it. Not only are goals down, but specifically PP's are down, where rookies have more time and space and less of an adjustment to NHL defenses.

Yes I oversimplified the matter,But I still think it's fair to say that an 80 point rookie year for McDavid would be comparable to what Crosby and Ovechkin did as rookies. There are plenty of other matters that make it more complex than 80 now=100 then, such as PP time, quality of teammates, coaches strategy, ice time, etc, but I stand by those numbers.

lol how are these two comparable?

Draft years...

Mackinnon - 75 points in 44 games (playing in the higher scoring Q, with Druoin, the next best CHL player on his wing)
McDavid - 107 points in 40 games (including a stretch where he was coming back from injury)

Scoring wise, they're not even in the same realm.

Obviously McDavid is the better prospect but they're comparable in the sense that they were/ are going to be #1 overall picks with their top attributes being their offensive skills, skating in particular.

As far as the stats you've laid out, you seem too biased towards McDavid. It's clear that McDavid has the superior stats, the other stuff you've included just has you come across as a MacKinnon hater.
McDavid's comeback from his injury happened during the World Junior tournament. I don't think his injured hand makes for a good excuse for his OHL stats [and it's not like he needs one] when he already played 7 games at the tournament in between OHL games. It was actually MacKinnon that had to come back from a knee injury during his last season, missing almost the whole month of February.
Additionally, the scoring in the Q during MacKinnon's draft year is actually very close to the scoring in the OHL this year.

I do disagree with a few things the poster said. MacKinnon hasn't been neutralized, he's been very good, and McDavid's skills will have him become an even better player than that. Just because he might never score 130 points doesn't mean he won't be dominating, the NHL is tighter defensively now and these players have to be compared to the guys they play against, not players playing in year past when the NHL was so much more offensive.

 

[lawrence]

I think the league today is not set up for him to have an Ovechkin or Crosby type of rookie year.

Ovy was a 20 year old in his rookie year, 20 turned 21. IF McDavid was a 21 year old Rookie I'm sure he will hit over 100 points.

 

[lawrence]

There's not much justification for having McDavid ahead of Crosby at this point as a prospect. The margin is the close, but Crosby was the better prospect.

I don't think we'll see McDavid play at the same level Crosby did his first couple years in the league. Crosby winning a Hart at 19 is ridiculous. I do think, however, that McDavid's best years could very good well be better than Sid's best. Crosby gets a ton of "garbage" goals while CMD is most dangerous off of the rush. This is one of the reasons I don't really like the 87/97 comparison. They have a very similar skating stride and they're clearly both world-class talents...but beyond that, they are different players. McDavid will need to adapt his game to the NHL in a way Crosby didn't have to. CMD won't be able to torch NHL defenders the way he's walked through the 'O this year.

First year in the NHL I predict 25 G/55 A. He might even hover in the 75-90 pt range for 2-4 years. At his best though... I think we could see a 125 point season. Maybe even 130 depending on a bunch of variables we're all aware of that don't need to be detailed. His skill level is effing breathtaking. You've all seen the videos, and I'm sure plenty have seen him in person...but anyone that closely follows him and watches a good chunk of his games knows the extra gear can kick into.

Like I said, Sid is the better prospect and it's not all-that-close, though CMD has come closer than any. I wouldn't bet against 97 though. He has the drive and ability to be the best the game has seen since Mario Lemieux. He could also end up comfortably in the Steven Stamkos, Patrick Kane range as a pro. Realistically, I see his career being pretty damn close to Sid's overall. Time will tell.

There's not much justification for having McDavid ahead of Crosby at this point as a prospect. The margin is the close, but Crosby was the better prospect.

very few people have said he is better then Crosby right now, and even fewer actually said he thinks he will be better.

 

[Lebowski]

Ovy was a 20 year old in his rookie year, 20 turned 21. IF McDavid was a 21 year old Rookie I'm sure he will hit over 100 points.

Considering no one is going to hit 100 points this season, I sincerely doubt that.

 

[lawrence]

Considering no one is going to hit 100 points this season, I sincerely doubt that.

We though the same back then.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Is it unreasonable to think McDavid could be competing for the Art Ross as soon as next season?

 

[ecemleafs]

Is it unreasonable to think McDavid could be competing for the Art Ross as soon as next season?

yes. none of the teams drafting him have the supporting cast for him to play above himself and hes wont be a better player than the elite players in the NHL next season.

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

yes. none of the teams drafting him have the supporting cast for him to play above himself and hes wont be a better player than the elite players in the NHL next season.

Unlikely as it is, if a team like the Avalanche win the lottery, he'll have the support he needs.

 

[BigMacOnIce]

yes. none of the teams drafting him have the supporting cast for him to play above himself and hes wont be a better player than the elite players in the NHL next season.

If Dallas wins the lottery he'll have quite the supporting cast.

 

[Howboutthempanthers]

If Dallas wins the lottery he'll have quite the supporting cast.

Or Florida.

 

[leafsfuture]

Is it unreasonable to think McDavid could be competing for the Art Ross as soon as next season?

IMO yes.

In his rookie season Crosby finished 6th in scoring, and 23 points of the league leader. Now obviously its a different case, but I would note in that year that extra powerplays and new tactics made it a lot easier for PP specialists to do well.

McDavid obviously isnt a PP specialist, but as a rookie a guy like him would do better in those situations relative to 5on5.

Also, I would argue the competition for scoring is higher than in 2005/2006. Right now you still have Crosby, Ovechkin and Malking still in scoring primes. Also the best prospects between Sid and Connor -- Tavares, Stamkos, Seguin -- are also in their primes.

Look at the top of the league in scoring. Its high picks galore

 

[Ducks Nation*]

Watched a game of his the other night, he is a man amongst boys. He is the real deal.