C Connor McDavid - Erie Otters, OHL (2015 Draft) II

[Halpysback*]

Would be surprised if he's any better than Spezza.

 

[tucker3434]

Who knows? Too early to tell. If he continues along his current development path, I don't see him as being any worse than Tavares.

 

[daver]

It should factor in for the adjustment period of a rookie getting used to the physicality/speed, but scoring rate of the Q in early/mid '00's should also be a factor if you are going to do that.

2012/13 OHL League PPG - 3.38

2003/04 QMJHL League PPG - 3.36

Looks like a non-factor.

 

[tony d]

Should be a really good NHL player. Think he'll top out as being at the Stamkos or Tavares level.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

He's got Drouin level hands and vision to go along with MacKinnon level skating, and he still appears to have a lot of physical developing to do while already standing at 6'0.

I hate to put such high expectations on a player this young but he really looks like the next big star. I know a lot can change but at this point I see him as:

Worst case - Spezza
Best Case - Crosby

 

[Lebowski]

He's not going to get to 2.0 PpG. The league isn't the same as it was when Tavares played in it. If he scored 120+ points, that's damn impressive and at the end of the day, you just have to watch the kid play and you'll get it. He's does everything at an elite level. The same could not be said of Tavares at 16, never mind today.

See post above, the scoring is apparently roughly the same after all those years.

If he truly is "elite" (and I'm taking this term literally), then he shouldn't have any problem posting a 100+ points season as a 16/17 year old.

 

[SarcazemKadri]

Kid is 5'11 170lbs at 15, and put up over a PPG in his under age year. This kid could easily top out at 6'3 210 when all is said and done. That size, with his hands, speed and most importantly insane hockey sense are a recipe for a generational player. He doesn't have the question marks around his game that Spezza and Tavares had, being defensive accumen and skating respectively.

He has Crosby potential.

 

[HockeySauce]

See post above, the scoring is apparently roughly the same after all those years.

If he truly is "elite" (and I'm taking this term literally), then he shouldn't have any problem posting a 100+ points season as a 16/17 year old.

That was comparing the QMJHL and OHL. I was talking about a straight OHL-to-OHL comparison.

There's a reason no one's posted the point totals we saw in the 2006-07 season in the OHL (Kane, 145; Tavares, 134; Donati, 129; etc) and it's not because the players are becoming less talented.

Hell, John Tavares himself couldn't even top his own scoring pace that year in the next two OHL seasons he had, and progressively put up less points. Was that because he was beginning to suck more and more? No.

Since the 2007-08 season, no player (including Tavares) has scored more than 108 points in a single OHL season. That includes Tavares, Yakupov, Seguin, Hall, etc. and the amount of 100-point scorers has also decreased. In fact, in 4 of the past 5 seasons, the OHL has seen 3 or less 100-point scorers. In 2007-08 there was 8, in 2006-07 there were 9 and in 2005-06 there were 7 - and in all those seasons, at least one player broke 120 points and in 2005-06 and 2006-07, a couple players broke 130 points in each season, and 2 players (one in each year) broke 140 points.

Simply put, scoring just isn't what it used to be in the OHL. There's no denying it.

As for posting 100+ points next year, I could easily see him doing that. He'll put up a couple 100+ point seasons in the next 2 years. But expecting him to put up close to a 2.0 PpG pace, and saying that's how he'll be defined as a "generational" talent, as shown above, is ridiculous.

 

[Lebowski]

That was comparing the QMJHL and OHL. I was talking about a straight OHL-to-OHL comparison.

There's a reason no one's posted the point totals we saw in the 2006-07 season in the OHL (Kane, 145; Tavares, 134; Donati, 129; etc) and it's not because the players are becoming less talented.

Hell, John Tavares himself couldn't even top his own scoring pace that year in the next two OHL seasons he had, and progressively put up less points. Was that because he was beginning to suck more and more? No.

Since the 2007-08 season, no player (including Tavares) has scored more than 108 points in a single OHL season. That includes Tavares, Yakupov, Seguin, Hall, etc. and the amount of 100-point scorers has also decreased. In fact, in 4 of the past 5 seasons, the OHL has seen 3 or less 100-point scorers. In 2007-08 there was 8, in 2006-07 there were 9 and in 2005-06 there were 7 - and in all those seasons, at least one player broke 120 points and in 2005-06 and 2006-07, a couple players broke 130 points in each season, and 2 players (one in each year) broke 140 points.

Simply put, scoring just isn't what it used to be in the OHL. There's no denying it.

As for posting 100+ points next year, I could easily see him doing that. He'll put up a couple 100+ point seasons in the next 2 years. But expecting him to put up close to a 2.0 PpG pace, and saying that's how he'll be defined as a "generational" talent, as shown above, is ridiculous.

I don't really care about the evolution of scoring in the OHL. People are here comparing McDavid with Crosby, so what truly matters is the Q's GPG in Crosby's rookie season compared to the current OHL's GPG, which is fairly similar.

Now, what I said is that I'll only truly start to buy into the buy that McDavid is a generational talent once he manage to get anywhere close to Crosby's numbers. To do that, he'd need over twice the PPG he achieved in his rookie season next year.

That may sound somewhat impossible, but that's what it will take to warrant a comparison with Crosby.

 

[HockeySauce]

I don't really care about the evolution of scoring in the OHL. People are here comparing McDavid with Crosby, so what truly matters is the Q's GPG in Crosby's rookie season compared to the current OHL's GPG, which is fairly similar.

Now, what I said is that I'll only truly start to buy into the buy that McDavid is a generational talent once he manage to get anywhere close to Crosby's numbers. To do that, he'd need over twice the PPG he achieved in his rookie season next year.

That may sound somewhat impossible, but that's what it will take to warrant a comparison with Crosby.

So, answer this: Have you ever actually seen McDavid play? This post reeks of no.. and if that's the case, no one will care that you don't consider him a generational talent. (no offense)

I've said it a few times in this thread, but everything McDavid does is done at an elite level. He'll easily be the best player in the OHL next year and I'd be surprised if he didn't lead the league in scoring by a healthy margin.

 

[UsernameWasTaken]

So, answer this: Have you ever actually seen McDavid play? This post reeks of no.. and if that's the case, no one will care that you don't consider him a generational talent. (no offense)

I've said it a few times in this thread, but everything McDavid does is done at an elite level. He'll easily be the best player in the OHL next year and I'd be surprised if he didn't lead the league in scoring by a healthy margin.

i've seen mcdavid play and am not ready to call him a 'generational talent' or say he is better than crosby at this point of time.

i will also say that, imo, there is no chance he leads the league in scoring next year at all let alone 'by a healthy margin'.

 

[SarcazemKadri]

I don't really care about the evolution of scoring in the OHL.

Stopped reading at that. Very dense way of thinking. Point totals are not the be all end all for evaluating players. There is a reason Reebok picked this kid up with a half million dollar endorsement at 15.

 

[HockeySauce]

i've seen mcdavid play and am not ready to call him a 'generational talent' or say he is better than crosby at this point of time.

i will also say that, imo, there is no chance he leads the league in scoring next year at all let alone 'by a healthy margin'.

I'm not calling him a generational talent either, but he has all the talent in the world to be considered that when the time's right.. and I'm saying that he shouldn't have to put up Crosby-like numbers to be compared to Crosby. No one's putting up those numbers in the OHL.

Who do you think will then? The only guy that I could see leading the league over him is Domi.. outside of that, there doesn't seem to be a lot of competition based on who should be returning next year. I can't see Eric Locke leading the league, even if he does come back, because he'll have lost Garret Ross.. he'll still have Jimmy Lodge, but I can't see both of those guys putting up 90+ points next year - which they'd need to.

I could easily see McDavid putting up 40ish goals and 60ish assists. Based on the trends in scoring, that could very well be enough to lead the league next year and if Erie can find him a better pure-finisher to play with, he could put up more assists.

 

[1Gold Standard]

I think we too often throw out the phrase "generational talent" or we want to dish it..something to talk about I guess... # 99 and # 66 were generational talents. #87 is an exceptional talent.... how good will #97 become... he has the potential to be exceptional+ I saw both Mcdavid play as a 14 year old and Sid play as a 16 year old in the Q. I was more impressed with McDavid at 14. but maybe I'm just becoming less critical as the years go by. Who knows.. the sky is the limit with Mcdavid... he has skills oozing out his back pockets.

 

[bucks_oil]

I think the best players in the long-run never get selected in the top 5. Too much hype.

Is that you Feaster?

 

[herashak]

I think we too often throw out the phrase "generational talent" or we want to dish it..something to talk about I guess... # 99 and # 66 were generational talents. #87 is an exceptional talent.... how good will #97 become... he has the potential to be exceptional+ I saw both Mcdavid play as a 14 year old and Sid play as a 16 year old in the Q. I was more impressed with McDavid at 14. but maybe I'm just becoming less critical as the years go by. Who knows.. the sky is the limit with Mcdavid... he has skills oozing out his back pockets.

how is crosby not a generational talent? he is pretty much the undisputed best player in the league. and will be for 5+ more years

 

[HockeySauce]

Yeah, Crosby is a generational talent. The only thing that's stopped him from leading the league in scoring in each of the past 3 seasons has been his health and while that's unfortunate, when talking about his talent-level, it's not really a huge thing IMO - though, obviously, hopefully he can stay healthy for the rest of his career.

 

[1Gold Standard]

how is crosby not a generational talent? he is pretty much the undisputed best player in the league. and will be for 5+ more years

I agree he is the best player in the league... does that mean he is a generational talent? I don't believe the two are synonymous. If you want to call him that...fill your boots man!

 

[herashak]

I agree he is the best player in the league... does that mean he is a generational talent? I don't believe the two are synonymous. If you want to call him that...fill your boots man!

he is the best player of a generation (about 10 years).

 

[RobertKron]

I agree he is the best player in the league... does that mean he is a generational talent? I don't believe the two are synonymous. If you want to call him that...fill your boots man!

What player of his generation is better?

 

[Garyboy]

I don't really care about the evolution of scoring in the OHL.

Then there's no point debating with you any further. The gentleman gave a very detailed reason as to why scoring in the OHL isn't what it used to be, and you're reply is this? Yikes.

 

[Wrath]

he is the best player of a generation (about 10 years).

Well... generation in terms of birth/families is generally accepted as 20-30 years, although in the NHL world I suppose 10 is decent enough due to (relatively) short career length.


Also many of us consider the term generational to mean transcending generations. Hence generational is really only reserved for the big four (Gretzky, Orr, Howe, and Lemieux).


To each their own though, I don't mind if you consider the Jagrs, Lidstroms, Crosbys, etc. of the hockey world as generational.

 

[Lebowski]

So, answer this: Have you ever actually seen McDavid play? This post reeks of no.. and if that's the case, no one will care that you don't consider him a generational talent. (no offense)

Not really, but my intention isn't to diminish him as a player neither. Several posters are here claiming McDavid could/will be the best player in the NHL in a few years and/or the best prospect since Crosby. I came here trying to tone down the hype a bit. Stats don't tell the whole story, I know at least that much, but when you see the stupidly large gap between Crosby and McDavid in that department, I think it's a legit way to have a more realistic view of things.

I've said it a few times in this thread, but everything McDavid does is done at an elite level. He'll easily be the best player in the OHL next year and I'd be surprised if he didn't lead the league in scoring by a healthy margin.

Like I said, I didn't even say McDavid isn't as good as people say he is nor did I say he wasn't elite. If he leads the OHL/CHL in scoring by a healthy margin next season, if he establishes himself as a true dominant force rather than a prospect full of promises, if he wins the CHL player of the year award... Than sure, you might have a point comparing him to Crosby, because that's exactly what he did at 16 years old, without even experiencing the junior level beforehand, while still being 5 months younger than McDavid will be next season. Either way, you'll notice that it makes a lot of "ifs". I'm personally eager to see how his numbers will compare to the ones of Yakupov and Galchenyuk in their rookie season.

Stopped reading at that. Very dense way of thinking. Point totals are not the be all end all for evaluating players. There is a reason Reebok picked this kid up with a half million dollar endorsement at 15.

Then there's no point debating with you any further. The gentleman gave a very detailed reason as to why scoring in the OHL isn't what it used to be, and you're reply is this? Yikes.

Actual stats are a dense way of thinking, but sponsorship contracts are an accurate way to evaluate a prospect? Solid logic there.

People are comparing McDavid to Crosby. Not McDavid to Tavares or Stamkos or any other highly touted prospect from the OHL. Crosby was a prospect from the Q. It so happens that the GPG average from the Q in 03-04 and the one from the OHL last season were roughly equal, the one from the OHL even being slightly higher.

Now, how is it pertinent to know that the scoring in the OHL isn't what it used to be while the current scoring of the OHL is equal to the scoring of the Q in Crosby's junior season? The answer is no, it's not pertinent and it doesn't add anything to the current discussion. If we were comparing him with Tavares' numbers, then it would have been a valuable argument, but since we're not, I think you two guys need to work on your reading comprehension.

 

[UsernameWasTaken]

I'm not calling him a generational talent either, but he has all the talent in the world to be considered that when the time's right.. and I'm saying that he shouldn't have to put up Crosby-like numbers to be compared to Crosby. No one's putting up those numbers in the OHL.

Who do you think will then? The only guy that I could see leading the league over him is Domi.. outside of that, there doesn't seem to be a lot of competition based on who should be returning next year. I can't see Eric Locke leading the league, even if he does come back, because he'll have lost Garret Ross.. he'll still have Jimmy Lodge, but I can't see both of those guys putting up 90+ points next year - which they'd need to.

I could easily see McDavid putting up 40ish goals and 60ish assists. Based on the trends in scoring, that could very well be enough to lead the league next year and if Erie can find him a better pure-finisher to play with, he could put up more assists.

I doubt the Otters will be good enough for him to do it. Others I think have a chance are Monahan, Rychel, Zach Hall if he plays an OA year. As has been discussed elsewhere, there's a good chance it will end up being a 19 yr old or someone playing an OA year.

I really don't think McDavid will do it next year. I think his draft year will be the year he does it.

 

[HockeySauce]

I doubt the Otters will be good enough for him to do it. Others I think have a chance are Monahan, Rychel, Zach Hall if he plays an OA year. As has been discussed elsewhere, there's a good chance it will end up being a 19 yr old or someone playing an OA year.

I really don't think McDavid will do it next year. I think his draft year will be the year he does it.

Who will Monahan be playing with? Who will Hall be playing with? Rychel will be losing Khohklachev, and he didn't fair very well last year without him. Meanwhile, in Erie, Connor Brown will be returning and Dylan Strome will be joining Erie as well. If Washington can convince Burakovsky to go there, McDavid will have a sniper to play with as well.

Barrie's not going to be a very good team next year, nor will Windsor or especially Ottawa and McDavid is more talented than any of those players regardless.