C Connor Bedard - Regina Pats, WHL (2023 Draft) Part 2

[Fantomas]

Savoie vs. Bedard is certainly an interesting discussion worth having!

 

[covfefe]

He still looks pretty darn good. I see a lot of people don't realize how hard it is to put points up in the WHL when not on a good team or at least having 1 or 2 others to defer to. Some may think Mikey Milne or Xavier Simoneau are Canada's best prospects cause of their production. Bedard plays against the 2 most physical divisions in the WHL, the Central and the HUB. No games against the BC or USA divisions this year. He's the team's best player so he's a target.

Just a little perspective. Fabian Lysell who many considered the second best European forward in the 2021 draft plays for Vancouver and is 2 years older than Bedard. He plays in a less physical division and is not a target as he's not nearly the best on his team, is only at a point per game. Put Bedard on Vancouver and Lysell on Regina and the stats would look considerably different.

Savoie is good too but swap him with Bedard and the stats change there also.

Really is best to watch the players to get a good handle on a players potential.

Good post, was going to get lost at the bottom of the last page.

 

[wetcoast]

I hate to take the other side on this but nobody is really questioning that he's playing extremely well for a 16 year old on a bad team. But you must admit that regardless, the production is quite a bit lower than any sort of generational prospect has produced at this age, regardless of situation. Bedard is still looking like a front runner for 1st overall and nothing about his skillset suggests he can't become a star in the NHL, but I do agree if he wants to even have any claim to the "generational" label some were very quick to hand him - he needs to produce more. Teams were game planning for Crosby, Lindros and even Tavares. at that age, but they still dominated. Heck, they game planned solely for Nathan MacKinnon when he was 16 and by far the best player on his otherwise average Moosehead team that year and he produced well better than Bedard has.

Again, this is such a small sample size, but at some point one must note that the season has not gone well for Bedard, given the unfathomable standards many set.

We saw what he did last year at the U-18s as a 15 year old, that talent is still there and the WHL today is quite a bit harder to score in than the Q or even OHL back in the day.

That being said his production has been underwhelming but it's not non existent either.

This isn't an Aatu Raty situation here by any means.


We all see the offensive struggles of the #1 ranked prospect in this years draft in Shane Wright but he is still the undisputed #1 guy, although Matt Savoie is making a very strong case right now.

 

[wetcoast]

"Just a level below" prospect was probably someone like Tavares? In his 16-17 yo season Tavares scored 134 points in 67 games, added 19 points in 9 playoff games. Stamkos didn't look as good as Tavares, but still scored 92 points in 63 games. Bedard with his 13 points after 17 games has to do better.

Are you only looking at the stats or did you watch them at the time of their drafts?

Tavares had skating "issues" that would hold him back from being "generational"

Once again having "generational" stats is entirely different from being generational and furthermore we shouldn't even being discussing it as there isn't a generational prospect this year or next.

 

[grentthealien]

Was Kucherov ever considered a generational prospect?

Malkin and Ovechkin were rated extremely high to be sure and there are a ton of reasons for this, skillsets, size, production ect...

We will agree to disagree then as I don't think either guy is a generational prospect.

My criteria is very high and there are maybe 7 guys that fit that bill if I include Potvin as Dmen are hard to compare as the jump to the NHL is harder for Dmen IMO.

My list chronologically is

Orr
Potvin
Gretzky
Mario
Lindros
Crosby
McDavid

To me a generational prospect is a guy who is spotted in his early teens and is a can't miss superstar and hits the NHL running at full speed and has an elite impact from day one.

These things are hard to compare and there is some wriggle room as the draft used to be for 20 years olds which can obviously make a huge difference in how guys jump to the NHL.

To me Bedard/Michov are on the Dionne/Lafleur scale of prospects, which is really darn high.

This is fair enough, everyone has their personal idea about “generational “ means some have a higher criteria others have a lower one.

I think you could make a case for Ovechkin as generational because of the hype and the fact that he entered the NHL as one of if not the best goal scorer on day 1. Unless you think he significantly benefited from the lockout and would have had a more pedestrian rookie season if he played right after his draft, I’m betting on him still being very effective. Not to mention the Florida Panthers trying to find a loophole to draft him in 2003, that shouldn’t count for much but it gives a good idea of how he was viewed by scouts and GMs at the time.

Based on your list you obviously have a very good understanding of the history of the game, I’ve seen some people consider Lafleur generational too but based on your criteria I don’t think he fits as he struggled to hit his true stride his first few seasons in the league.

I think it’s important to focus on the fact that names like Howe,Lafleur and Dionne aren’t on your list while Eric Lindros is. It just goes to show that being “generational” doesn’t mean you’re going to have a better career than other players and that many different things can affect a player’s development and trajectory, in the case of Lindros it was injures.

 

[PeterCheater]

He still looks pretty darn good. I see a lot of people don't realize how hard it is to put points up in the WHL when not on a good team or at least having 1 or 2 others to defer to.

I guess that's a difference between 'generational level talent' and 'great candidate for a 1st pick', because most of 'criticism' that Bedard gets is related to the 'best prospect since McDavid' and 'potential another gen prospect from Canada' label. If you're considered as such then it's just fair to expect just better production no matter what eye-test suggests.

But I remember Bedard getting criticized for his so-so production during a group phase of WCH U18, and then he scored like 10 or 11 points in a playoff phase. And I remember Tavares in his D-2 season, and a huge leap that McDavid made in his draft season. He needs some time, as we do as well.

 

[daver]

Glad this thread is full of the always fascinating semantic discussion on "generational" instead of some insight on his actual play.

Is there any room to talk about his superior "2-way" play?

 

[Nona Di Giuseppe]

Glad this thread is full of the always fascinating semantic discussion on "generational" instead of some insight on his actual play.

Is there any room to talk about his superior "2-way" play?

Shocking. A hockey site with discussion about hockey. Reel it in or go have fun on Reddit. Or was scrolling a page too traumatic… Yikes.

 

[daver]

Shocking. A hockey site with discussion about hockey. Reel it in or go have fun on Reddit. Or was scrolling a page too traumatic… Yikes.

Not sure you have any idea what "fun" is if you think a drawn out discussion on who is "generational" is any more interesting than watching water come to a boil.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Not sure you have any idea what "fun" is if you think a drawn out discussion on who is "generational" is any more interesting than watching water come to a boil.

Of course, whining about generational discussions is much more fun...

 

[Bubbles]

Tonight's Pats vs. Tigers game is free on CBC Gem. I'll be watching, will you? Or will you just look at his stats?

 

[EichelFan15]

Tonight's Pats vs. Tigers game is free on CBC Gem. I'll be watching, will you? Or will you just look at his stats?

If how he looked tonight is how he’s been playing all year then people shouldn’t be overly concerned about the point totals - absolutely dominant.

 

[Antiillafire]

If how he looked tonight is how he’s been playing all year then people shouldn’t be overly concerned about the point totals - absolutely dominant.

Ehh, I wouldn’t say dominant but I think it was his best game of the season. Medicine Hat was pathetically bad, however. What a fall off that team has had this year compared to last year and 2 years ago

 

[Kshahdoo]

Ehh, I wouldn’t say dominant but I think it was his best game of the season. Medicine Hat was pathetically bad, however. What a fall off that team has had this year compared to last year and 2 years ago

So he scored 1+0 on his best game of the season?

 

[EichelFan15]

Ehh, I wouldn’t say dominant but I think it was his best game of the season. Medicine Hat was pathetically bad, however. What a fall off that team has had this year compared to last year and 2 years ago

Almost every time he had the puck in the offensive zone he created a high danger chance. Nothing is created for him out there - the only pass I actually saw him get in space was on his goal and he had to knock it down from 4 feet in the air. Looked faster than last year I thought. I think he can be difference maker for the world junior team. I think he would be a guy who would look better at the WJC then in the WHL when given teammates who are on his level.

 

[TeddyBare]

How come Seattle's draft pick is the only one with a decent plus/minus on the squad while everyone else is garbage?

 

[Dust]

How come Seattle's draft pick is the only one with a decent plus/minus on the squad while everyone else is garbage?

He's a really solid player, and Regina isn't very great 5on5.

 

[Gold Standard]

Almost every time he had the puck in the offensive zone he created a high danger chance. Nothing is created for him out there - the only pass I actually saw him get in space was on his goal and he had to knock it down from 4 feet in the air. Looked faster than last year I thought. I think he can be difference maker for the world junior team. I think he would be a guy who would look better at the WJC then in the WHL when given teammates who are on his level.

You're setting your expectations a little too high. What 16 year old not named Wayne Gretzky has ever been a difference maker for Team Canada at the WJHC? If he makes the team, and that's a big if, I expect him to have little impact...couple of goals + couple of helpers against teams like Austria.

But...of course there's always a chance that I'm completely wrong and that he clicks with a couple of linemates and lights it up. Always happy to be wrong in this instance.

 

[Dust]

It'll be interesting if we see his production really take off under Paddock who is a much better coach than Struch was.

 

[Hanji]

Bedard just isn't as good as we thought he was. But there's nothing wrong with that, the 'generational' bar was exceptionally high. He's still an amazing prospect.

Special players make those around them better. Production shouldn't be predicated on teammates, coaches, use, extended spells of unluckiness, etc.. He shouldn't need to be put in a position to suceed, he should be able to go on the ice and be head and shoulders above everybody regardless; especially against fellow juniors most of whom wont ever be playing professional hockey. This is what seperates the elite from the elite of the elite.

 

[prongertheman9]

Bedard just isn't as good as we thought he was. But there's nothing wrong with that, the 'generational' bar was exceptionally high. He's still an amazing prospect.

Special players make those around them better. Production shouldn't be predicated on teammates, coaches, use, extended spells of unluckiness, etc.. He shouldn't need to be put in a position to suceed, he should be able to go on the ice and be head and shoulders above everybody regardless; especially against fellow juniors most of whom wont ever be playing professional hockey. This is what seperates the elite from the elite of the elite.

While I think it is probably true that the Bedard hype train got out of control following the U-18's last year and he might not be a generational prospect, you have it dead wrong on your production spiel. If comparing McDavid's 16 year old season to Bedards are we supposed to ignore the fact that Mcdavid was only 3rd on the team in scoring and that the slew of future NHLer's on the team didn't aid in his production? Michkov's KHL production wouldn't be better if the coach used him in a more prominent role? I also don't think that generational players are immune to periods of 18 games where their shooting % is about half the historical/personal rate and production is lower because of it.

 

[93LEAFS]

While I think it is probably true that the Bedard hype train got out of control following the U-18's last year and he might not be a generational prospect, you have it dead wrong on your production spiel. If comparing McDavid's 16 year old season to Bedards are we supposed to ignore the fact that Mcdavid was only 3rd on the team in scoring and that the slew of future NHLer's on the team didn't aid in his production? Michkov's KHL production wouldn't be better if the coach used him in a more prominent role? I also don't think that generational players are immune to periods of 18 games where their shooting % is about half the historical/personal rate and production is lower because of it.

McDavid played 11 less games than Dane Fox and had a higher PPG. And, if I remember correctly, Fox and Brown were a separate line, and McDavid played with Burakovsky. I'd also add, the only guys on Erie that year who were serious NHL prospects entering the year were Burakovsky and a very young and raw Dylan Strome. Dane Fox was undrafted. Dermott didn't even play as a 16 year old and played OJHL. So, who knows maybe some late rounder on Regina will have an arch-like Connor Brown who exceeded most people's expectations for him.

 

[prongertheman9]

McDavid played 11 less games than Dane Fox and had a higher PPG. And, if I remember correctly, Fox and Brown were a separate line, and McDavid played with Burakovsky. I'd also add, the only guys on Erie that year who were serious NHL prospects entering the year were Burakovsky and a very young and raw Dylan Strome. Dane Fox was undrafted. Dermott didn't even play as a 16 year old and played OJHL. So, who knows maybe some late rounder on Regina will have an arch-like Connor Brown who exceeded most people's expectations for him.

Like I said, 3rd on the team in scoring! Regardless of what the lines were, with that many threats, teams couldn't make one player their focal point. But they definitely all played together on the PP, where Mcdavid got a third of his points that year. It doesn't matter what his teammates were touted as coming in, it's what they played like.

 

[93LEAFS]

Like I said, 3rd on the team in scoring! Regardless of what the lines were, with that many threats, teams couldn't make one player their focal point. But they definitely all played together on the PP, where Mcdavid got a third of his points that year. It doesn't matter what his teammates were touted as coming in, it's what they played like.

Well, Strome and Dermott didn't really do much that year. And, who knows how we look back on Bedard's teammates in 7 years later. On top of that, the OHL in general has a deeper field of higher end NHLers on less teams. Look at some of the other players in the OHL he was playing against at the time. Marner, Horvat, Domi, Nurse, DeAngelo, Bennett, Konecny, Dal Colle, etc.

I mean, yeah he was 3rd in scoring, but that wouldn't be the case if he didn't play in the WJC, which is why he missed most of those 11 games. The only person on a higher pace was Connor Brown, who for some reason was left off the WJC team that year. McDavid had the 2nd highest ppg in the OHL that year over a full season. To argue he was propped up, especially if you are going to use hindsight on the players he played with is pretty ridiculous.

 

[prongertheman9]

Well, Strome and Dermott didn't really do much that year. And, who knows how we look back on Bedard's teammates in 7 years later. On top of that, the OHL in general has a deeper field of higher end NHLers on less teams. Look at some of the other players in the OHL he was playing against at the time. Marner, Horvat, Domi, Nurse, DeAngelo, Bennett, Konecny, Dal Colle, etc.

I mean, yeah he was 3rd in scoring, but that wouldn't be the case if he didn't play in the WJC, which is why he missed most of those 11 games. The only person on a higher pace was Connor Brown, who for some reason was left off the WJC team that year. McDavid had the 2nd highest ppg in the OHL that year over a full season. To argue he was propped up, especially if you are going to use hindsight on the players he played with is pretty ridiculous.

I'm glad we can finally agree that he was 3rd in scoring. So you think McDavid's production would have been the same without Brown, Fox and Bura on the the team?